• 제목/요약/키워드: Time-series Analysis

검색결과 3,215건 처리시간 0.024초

ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측 (Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model)

  • 백미경;김상민
    • 한국농공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제65권2호
    • /
    • pp.1-11
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain's two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

카오스 특징 추출에 의한 시계열 신호의 패턴인식 (Pattern recognition of time series data based on the chaotic feature extracrtion)

  • 이호섭;공성곤
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1996년도 추계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
    • /
    • pp.294-297
    • /
    • 1996
  • This paper proposes the method to recognize of time series data based on the chaotic feature extraction. Features extract from time series data using the chaotic time series data analysis and the pattern recognition process is using a neural network classifier. In experiment, EEG(electroencephalograph) signals are extracted features by correlation dimension and Lyapunov experiments, and these features are classified by multilayer perceptron neural networks. Proposed chaotic feature extraction enhances recognition results from chaotic time series data.

  • PDF

퍼지 이론을 이용한 악보의 모델링 (Fuzzy Logic-based Modeling of a Score)

  • 손세호;권순학
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
    • /
    • pp.211-214
    • /
    • 2001
  • In this paper, we interpret a score as a time series and deal with the fuzzy logic-based modeling of it. The musical notes in a score represent a lot of information about the length of a sound and pitches, etc. In this paper, using melodies, tones and pitches in a score, we transform data on a score into a time series. Once more, we form the new time series by sliding a window through the time series. For analyzing the time series data, we make use of the Box-Jenkinss time series analysis. On the basis of the identified characteristics of time series, we construct the fuzz model.

  • PDF

Clustering Algorithm for Time Series with Similar Shapes

  • Ahn, Jungyu;Lee, Ju-Hong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • 제12권7호
    • /
    • pp.3112-3127
    • /
    • 2018
  • Since time series clustering is performed without prior information, it is used for exploratory data analysis. In particular, clusters of time series with similar shapes can be used in various fields, such as business, medicine, finance, and communications. However, existing time series clustering algorithms have a problem in that time series with different shapes are included in the clusters. The reason for such a problem is that the existing algorithms do not consider the limitations on the size of the generated clusters, and use a dimension reduction method in which the information loss is large. In this paper, we propose a method to alleviate the disadvantages of existing methods and to find a better quality of cluster containing similarly shaped time series. In the data preprocessing step, we normalize the time series using z-transformation. Then, we use piecewise aggregate approximation (PAA) to reduce the dimension of the time series. In the clustering step, we use density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to create a precluster. We then use a modified K-means algorithm to refine the preclusters containing differently shaped time series into subclusters containing only similarly shaped time series. In our experiments, our method showed better results than the existing method.

일변량 분산 분석과 이변량 시계열 분석을 이용한 미숙아의 목소리 자극에 대한 심박동수와 호흡수 반응의 비교 (Comparison and Analysis of Response of Premature Infants to Auditory Stimulus)

  • 이혜정
    • Child Health Nursing Research
    • /
    • 제15권3호
    • /
    • pp.261-270
    • /
    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the result of one-way ANOVA with that of cross-correlation time series analysis in order to evaluate physiologic responses of premature infants to human voices. Methods: Four premature infants born prior to 32 weeks gestational age were included in the study. The Gould 4000TA Recording System recorded the preterm infant's heart and respiratory rate while they were listening to a pre-recorded voice recording. Each infant listened to both male and female voices (1 min each) at each testing session. Results: The results of both one-wayANOVA and cross-correlation time series analysis using heart and respiratory rate data were not consistent in some of premature infants. A cross-correlation time series analysis revealed that the responses of premature infant to vocal stimulation occurred at a varying number of seconds after the stimulus was presented and lasted for over 20-30 sec. Conclusion: The results indicate that a time series analysis can provide more detailed information on the rapidly changing physiologic status of premature infant to the auditory stimulus. In addition, the results provide an insight into an auditory responsitivity of premature infants to a naturally occurring sound, the human voice, in the neonatal intensive care unit.

  • PDF

Box-Jenkins 시계열 분석을 이용한 지역의료보험 실시가 병원 환자 수에 미친 영향 (Impact of District Medical Insurance Plan on Number of Hospital Patients: Using Box-Jenkins Time Series Analysis)

  • 김용준;전기홍
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • 제22권2호
    • /
    • pp.189-196
    • /
    • 1989
  • In January 1988, district medical insurance plan was executed on a national scale in Korea. We conducted an evaluation of the impact of execution of district medical insurance plan on number of hospital patients: number of outpatients; and occupancy rate. This study was carried out by Box-Jenkins time series analysis. We tested the statistical significance with intervention component added to ARIMA model. Results of our time series analysis showed that district medical insurance plan had a significant effect on the number of outpatients and occupancy rate. Due to this plan the number of outpatients had increased by 925 patients every month which is equivalent to 8.3 percents of average monthly insurance outpatients in 1987, and occupancy rate had also increased by 0.12 which is equivalent to 16 percents of that in 1987.

  • PDF

퍼지 이론을 이용한 악보의 모델링 (Fuzzy Logic-based Modeling of a Score)

  • 손세호;권순학
    • 한국지능시스템학회논문지
    • /
    • 제11권3호
    • /
    • pp.264-269
    • /
    • 2001
  • 본 논문에서는 악보를 시계열로 해석하여 퍼지 로직을 이용한 모델링에 대하여 다루고자 한다. 악보에 나타난 음악적 기호들은 음의 길이와 높이 등의 많은 정보들은 나타낸다. 본 논문에서는 멜로디, 음높이와 음색들을 사용하여 악보의 시각적 정보를 시계열 자료로 변환한다. 시계열 자료의 특징을 추출하기 위해 시계열 자료에 슬라이딩 윈도우를 통과시켜 다시 한번 새로운 시계열 자료로 변환한다. 변환된 시계열 자료를 분석하기 위해 Box-Jenkins의 시계열 분석 방법을 사용하고 분석된 시계열의 특징을 바탕으로 퍼지 모델을 구성한다.

  • PDF

Bayes Inference for the Spatial Bilinear Time Series Model with Application to Epidemic Data

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, Duk-Ki
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제25권4호
    • /
    • pp.641-650
    • /
    • 2012
  • Spatial time series data can be viewed as a set of time series simultaneously collected at a number of spatial locations. This paper studies Bayesian inferences in a spatial time bilinear model with a Gibbs sampling algorithm to overcome problems in the numerical analysis techniques of a spatial time series model. For illustration, the data set of mumps cases reported from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention monthly over the years 2001~2009 are selected for analysis.

광업 데이터의 시계열 분석을 통해 실리카 농도를 예측하기 위한 머신러닝 모델 (A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Silica Concentrations through Time Series Analysis of Mining Data)

  • 이승훈;윤연아;정진형;심현수;장태우;김용수
    • 품질경영학회지
    • /
    • 제48권3호
    • /
    • pp.511-520
    • /
    • 2020
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to devise an accurate machine learning model for predicting silica concentrations following the addition of impurities, through time series analysis of mining data. Methods: The mining data were preprocessed and subjected to time series analysis using the machine learning model. Through correlation analysis, valid variables were selected and meaningless variables were excluded. To reflect changes over time, dependent variables at baseline were treated as independent variables at later time points. The relationship between independent variables and the dependent variable after n point was subjected to Pearson correlation analysis. Results: The correlation (R2) was strongest after 3 hours, which was adopted as a dependent variable. According to root mean square error (RMSE) data, the proposed method was superior to the other machine learning methods. The XGboost algorithm showed the best predictive performance. Conclusion: This study is important given the current lack of machine learning studies pertaining to the domestic mining industry. In addition, using time series analysis in mining data will show further improvement. Before establishing a predictive model for the proposed method, predictions should be made using data with time series characteristics. After doing this work, it should also improve prediction accuracy in other domains.

체계적 문헌고찰을 통한 국내 보건복지 분야의 시계열 분석 연구 동향 (A systematic review of studies using time series analysis of health and welfare in Korea)

  • 우경숙;신영전
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제25권3호
    • /
    • pp.579-599
    • /
    • 2014
  • 이 연구는 국내 보건복지 분야에서 시계열 분석을 실시한 논문의 현황을 파악하고, 비뚤림 위험평가를 시행함으로써 향후 보건복지 분야에서의 시계열 분석 방법을 적용하는 데 기초자료를 제공하는 것이 목적이다. 국내 외 전자 데이터베이스를 이용하여, 논문명, 키워드, 초록에 '시계열 분석'을 포함한 6,543건 문헌 중에서 보건복지 분야 91건의 논문을 대상으로 체계적 문헌고찰을 수행하였다. 1987년부터 2013년까지 시계열 분석을 활용한 논문은 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 시계열 분석 연구는 의학과 보건학관련 학회에서의 활용이 높았고, 요인분석과 추세분석을 주요 분석 목적으로 하고 있었다. 세부주제는 국민건강과 의료서비스이용을 주로 다루고 있었고, 분석 기법은 ARIMA 모형, 시계열 회귀모형 순으로 활용되었다. 자료의 대부분은 통계청과 정부기관에서 생산하는 통계자료를 이용하였다. 문헌의 비뚤림 평가 결과, 상당수의 논문들이 표본수가 부족한 자료를 이용하거나, 시계열 도표와 플롯 작성을 간과하였다. 보건복지 영역에서 시계열 분석의 활용이 늘고 있고 향후 이용 가능성도 커지고 있으나, 기존 연구에서는 분석 과정과 결과를 도출하는 과정에서 분석 절차와 기준을 준수하지 않거나 주요 항목을 간과한 논문들이 일부 확인되었다. 향후 시계열 분석의 적극적인 활용뿐만 아니라 통계적 방법과 절차를 준수하고 신뢰성 있는 결과를 도출함으로써 질적 수준을 향상시키는 추가적인 노력이 필요하다.