• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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Detection of Forest Fire and NBR Mis-classified Pixel Using Multi-temporal Sentinel-2A Images (다시기 Sentinel-2A 영상을 활용한 산불피해 변화탐지 및 NBR 오분류 픽셀 탐지)

  • Youn, Hyoungjin;Jeong, Jongchul
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_2
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    • pp.1107-1115
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    • 2019
  • Satellite data play a major role in supporting knowledge about forest fire by delivering rapid information to map areas damaged. This study, we used 7 Sentinel-2A images to detect change area in forests of Sokcho on April 4, 2019. The process of classify forest fire severity used 7 levels from Sentinel-2A dNBR(differenced Normalized Burn Ratio). In the process of classifying forest fire damage areas, the study selected three areas with high regrowth of vegetation level and conducted a detailed spatial analysis of the areas concerned. The results of dNBR analysis, regrowth of coniferous forest was greater than broad-leaf forest, but NDVI showed the lowest level of vegetation. This is the error of dNBR classification of dNBR. The results of dNBR time series, an area of forest fire damage decreased to a large extent between April 20th and May 3rd. This is an example of the regrowth by developing rare-plants and recovering broad-leaf plants vegetation. The results showed that change area was detected through the change detection of danage area by forest category and the classification errors of the coniferous forest were reached through the comparison of NDVI and dNBR. Therefore, the need to improve the precision Korean forest fire damage rating table accompanied by field investigations was suggested during the image classification process through dNBR.

A Study on Measurement of TFP and Determinant factor (IT제조업의 총요소생산성 추정 및 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Young-Soo;Kim, Jung-Un;Jung, Hyun-Joon
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2008
  • This paper estimates the TFP in IT manufacturing (total factor productivity) by employment size of establishment and analyses the determinants of it. And the panel data is consisted of time series and cross section data of 4 employment size of establishment over $1990{\sim}2004$. During the period from 1991 to 1997 TFP increased positively irrespective of the employment size of establishment, but from 1998 to 2004 TFP increase rate turned negative except large size(more than 300) of establishment. TFP assume macro variables and policy variables as the determinants of IT manufacturing TFP. The analysis of whole size of establishment shows that sales growth rate is significantly positive, which makes us conclude that there is a teaming by doing effect and economy of scale. But some variables(i.e. IT capital stock, policy financing, and openness etc.) are significant in only a few models. So there may be different effect by employment size of establishment. In TFP determinants analysis by employment size of establishment, we find that coefficients of policy financing and openness variables are significantly positive. The larger employment size of establishment is, the larger scale economy is. And for large size(more than 300) establishment, IT capital stock helps propel the increase of the productivity.

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An Empirical Study on Predictive Modeling to enhance the Product-Technical Roadmap (제품-기술로드맵 개발을 강화하기 위한 예측모델링에 관한 실증 연구)

  • Park, Kigon;Kim, YoungJun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2021
  • Due to the recent development of system semiconductors, technical innovation for the electric devices of the automobile industry is rapidly progressing. In particular, the electric device of automobiles is accelerating technology development competition among automobile parts makers, and the development cycle is also changing rapidly. Due to these changes, the importance of strategic planning for R&D is further strengthened. Due to the paradigm shift in the automobile industry, the Product-Technical Roadmap (P/TRM), one of the R&D strategies, analyzes technology forecasting, technology level evaluation, and technology acquisition method (Make/Collaborate/Buy) at the planning stage. The product-technical roadmap is a tool that identifies customer needs of products and technologies, selects technologies and sets development directions. However, most companies are developing the product-technical roadmap through a qualitative method that mainly relies on the technical papers, patent analysis, and expert Delphi method. In this study, empirical research was conducted through simulations that can supplement and strengthen the product-technical roadmap centered on the automobile industry by fusing Gartner's hype cycle, cumulative moving average-based data preprocessing, and deep learning (LSTM) time series analysis techniques. The empirical study presented in this paper can be used not only in the automobile industry but also in other manufacturing fields in general. In addition, from the corporate point of view, it is considered that it will become a foundation for moving forward as a leading company by providing products to the market in a timely manner through a more accurate product-technical roadmap, breaking away from the roadmap preparation method that has relied on qualitative methods.

A Study constructing a Function-Based Records Classification System for Korean Individual Church (한국 개(個)교회기록물의 기능분류 방안)

  • Ma, Won-jun
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.10
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    • pp.145-194
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    • 2004
  • Church archives are the evidential instruments to remember church activity and important information aggregate which has administrative, legal, financial, historical, faithful value as the collective memory of church community. So it must be managed necessarily and the management orders are based on the Bible. The western churches which have a correct understanding about the importance of church records and management order have taken multilateral endeavor to create, manage church archives systematically. On the other hand, korean churches don't have the records management systems. Therefore, Records created in individual church are mostly managed unsystematically and exist as 'backlogs', finally, they are destructed without reasonable formalities. In those problems, the purpose of this study is to offer the way of records classification and disposition instrument with recognition that records management should be done from the time of creation or previous to it. As a concrete device for them, I tried to embody the function-based classification method and disposal schedule. I prefer the function-based classification and disposal schedule to the organization and function-based classification to present stable classification and disposal schedule, as we can say the best feature of the modern organization is multilateral and also churches have same aspect. For this study, I applied DIRKS(Designing and Implementing Recordkeeping Systems) manual which National Archives of Australia provide and guidelines in ICA/IRMT series to construct the theory of the function-based classification in individual churches. Through them, it was possible to present a model for preliminary investigation, analysis of business activity, records survey, disposal schedule. And I took an example of 'Myong Sung Presbyterian Church' which belong to 'The Presbyterian church in Korea'. I explained in detail codifying process and results of preliminary investigation in 'Myong Sung Presbyterian Church', analysis of business activity based on it, process of presenting the function-based classification and disposal schedule got from all those steps. For establishing disposal schedule, I planned 'General Disposal Schedule' and 'Agency Disposal Schedule' which categorized 'general function' and 'agency function' of an agency, according to DIRKS in Australia and ICA/IRMT. And for estimation of disposal date I had a thorough grasp of important records category presented in 'Constitution of General Assembly', interview to know the importance of tasks, and added examples of disposal schedule in western church archives. This study has significance that it was intended to embody 'the function-based classification' and 'disposal schedule' suitable for individual church, applying DIRKS in Australia and ICA/IRMT on absence of the theory or example which tried to present the function-based classification and disposal schedule for individual church. Also it is meaningful to present a model that can classify and disposal real records according to the function in individual church which has no recognition or way about records management.

Analysis of the relationship among water-efficiency in the non-agricultural sector, economic growth, electricity generation, and CO2 emission - evidence from Korea - (우리나라에서 비농업 부문의 물 효율성, 경제성장, 전력생산 및 CO2배출 간의 관계 분석)

  • Jung, Yonghun;Lee, Seong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.1229-1235
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    • 2018
  • We have examined dynamic relationships among water-efficiency, economic growth, electricity generation, and $CO_2$ emissions in Korea using various time-series analysis methods for 1990-2014. While previous studies have been limited to economic growth, $CO_2$ emissions, and electricity generation, this study contributed to explain the relationship between existing variables and water-efficiency. We find that the four variables reach a balanced state in the long run through short-term adjustment, $CO_2$ emissions and economic growth are responsible for water efficiency, and that $CO_2$ emissions, economic growth and water efficiency are the causes of electricity generation. The long-term impact coefficient estimates on water-efficiency show that the increase in electricity generation and the decrease in $CO_2$ emissions increase water-efficiency. Although economic growth has increased water-efficiency, moreover, we have identified an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and water-efficiency, which suggests that economic growth above a certain level reduces the rate of increase in water-efficiency.

A Study on Evaluating Tourism Value and Presenting Development Strategies for the Saemangeum Project (새만금지역의 관광자원 가치와 개발방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hak Yong
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2019
  • This study was carried out to investigate how the basic plan of the Saemangeum development project that has been developed by the government since 1991 has been changed and to present a new development strategy by analyzing the future value and tourism resource value of Saemangeum development. The research methodology is based on the in - depth analysis methodology of the time series research materials and press releases published by the Saemangeum Development Administration, which oversees the development of Saemangeum. The government announced a plan to significantly reduce agricultural land and increase the proportion of non-agricultural land to 70% in order to create a multifunctional complex. After that, the government revised the basic plan of Saemangeum in 2014 and changed the plan to tailor the investment demand in order to cultivate investment demand, and introduced the special economic cooperation system for global economic cooperation. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the process of Saemangeum development to date and to evaluate the value of Saemangeum development as a tourism resource, centered on the Master Plan of the Saemangeum Development Project changed by the government. Based on the results of this analysis, I would like to present the vision of Saemangeum tourism development considering Saemangeum 's environment and characteristics of the surrounding scenery by referring to trends and similar cases of international tourism.

Analysis of the Low-Carbon Economy of China on the Emissions of Carbon (탄소 배출량에 대한 중국 저탄소 경제의 분석)

  • Chen, Si Jia;Ahn, Jong-Chang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.528-534
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the factors affecting China's carbon emissions from 1985 to 2016. In recent years, the whole industries of China are in the midst of industrialization and have several problems. Now, the low-carbon economy has become the main task of China's economic development. This study analyzes the factors affecting China 's carbon emissions by selecting relevant data onto the Chinese yearbook and using a time series model. The analysis shows that related industries continue to innovate and increase the use of green energy such as electricity, but coal is still the largest share of the energy consumed. As energy use efficiency increases and industrial R&D investment increases year by year, carbon emissions are increasing every year. In addition, there is a stereotype that industry is the biggest factor affecting carbon emissions. The research found that the impact of the industry on China's carbon emissions is declining gradually. While controlling industrial carbon emissions, keeping continue to improve technology development and focusing on carbon emissions from other industries are critical to reduce overall carbon emissions. Based on the empirical results, if we can change stereotypes starting from the nature of the data, we will quickly reach a low carbon sustainable development economy.

An Error Correction Model for Long Term Forecast of System Marginal Price (전력 계통한계가격 장기예측을 위한 오차수정모형)

  • Shin, Sukha;Yoo, Hanwook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2021
  • The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

Early Detecting Damaged Trees by Pine Wilt Disease Using DI(Detection Index) from Portable Near Infrared Camera (휴대용 근적외선 카메라로부터 얻어진 DI(Detection Index)를 이용한 소나무 재선충 피해목의 조기감별)

  • Kim, Moon-Il;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kwon, Tae-Hyub;Kwak, Doo-Ahn;Kim, You-Seung;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.3
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    • pp.374-381
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of early detection of Pine Wilt Disease (PWD) using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from ADC (Agricultural Digital Camera) imageries. The PWD induces the different patterns of reduction of NDVI between healthy trees and infected trees, due to the withered leaves on the infected trees. Based on these phenomena, the DI showing the NDVI variations of trees by time series was employed to detect the infected trees. To find out the differences of DI level between normal and infected trees, DIs of trees from May to August in 2007 were calculated and these were analyzed with GLM (General Linear Models) in SAS 9.2. As a result, the difference of DI between in June and August shows the most significant level (0.0001). The discriminant analysis was performed between normal and infected trees, using the DI of June and August. As the result, hit ratio of trees and the accuracy of grouping with Jack-knife method were shown 71.9% and 73.5%, respectively. These results showed that the DI is effective to detect the trees infected by the PWD and it is useful to prevent the PWD.

Avaliable analysis of precise positioning using the LX-PPS GNSS permanent stations (LX-PPS GNSS 상시관측소의 정밀측위 활용 가능성 분석)

  • Ha, Jihyun;Park, Kwan-Dong;Kim, Hye-In
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.23-38
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we analyzed the possibility of utilizing LX-PPS GNSS permanent stations whose antennas are installed on the building rooftop for the purpose of high-precision GNSS positioning services. We picked 15 pairs of adjacent GNSS permanent stations operated by LX-PPS and NGII, and then produced 3-year-long time series using the high-precision data processing software called GIPSY. Patterns and trends of position estimates were compared and analyzed. Horizontal and vertical deviations including the linear velocities coincide with the well-known crustal deformation rates of the Korean peninsula. We also observed almost the same annual or seasonal patterns from those nearby sites. After detrending the linear velocity, the amplitude and phase of annual signals almost perfectly match each other within the baseline length of 2 km. By subtracting seasonal signals, the RMS and standard deviations in LX-PPS PPGR with respect to NGII KANR are about 1, 2, and 5 mm in the north-south, east-west, and vertical directions, respectively. From this analysis it can be concluded that the rooftop-installed LX-PPS sites show similar level of stability and positioning performance comparable to those ground-mounted NGII stations.