• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-series Analysis

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Asymmetric Price Responses of Industrial Energy Demand in Korea (산업부문 에너지 수요의 비대칭 가격반응)

  • Sukha Shin
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.267-292
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we estimate a time series model of energy demand in the industrial sector with an asymmetric response to energy prices. Including the asymmetric response to energy prices in the model strengthens robustness of the cointegration relationship and reduces the variation of the estimated coefficients across the estimating methods. We find that rising energy prices have a larger impact on energy demand than falling energy prices, with the largest impact occurring when energy prices rise to new highs. The estimation results are partially improved when using gross output rather than value added as a measure of production. Using single equation methods to estimate the asymmetric response model, the elasticity of gross output ranged from 1.05 to 1.09 and the elasticity of price-rise ranged from -0.48 to -0.56, which is similar to the results of international studies.

The Effect of the Auditor Designation System on the Efficiency of the KOSDAQ IPO Market (감사인지정제도가 KOSDAQ IPO 시장의 효율성에 미치는 효과)

  • Jin-Hwon Lee;Kyung-Soon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.167-186
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate whether the auditor accreditation system for IPO firms improves the efficiency of the KOSDAQ IPO market. To verify the effectiveness of the auditor designation system, we time series compare four measures of IPO firms (earnings management, long-term stock performance, change in operating performance, and possibility of delisting). Design/methodology/approach - We test the hypothesis through event research method and regression analysis. Specifically, the dependent variables of the regression model are discretionary accruals in the year of IPO, 36-month holding period excess return after IPO, change in operating performance for 3 years after IPO, and dummy variable for delisting. And the explanatory variable is a dummy variable that separates the period before and after the implementation of the auditor designation system. Findings - We find that earnings management and delisting risks decreased more in the period after the implementation of the auditor accreditation system than in the previous period. In addition, we find that long-term stock performance and operating performance after IPO increase further after the implementation of the auditor accreditation system. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the results of this study suggest that the implementation of the auditor accreditation system for IPO firms contributes to improving market efficiency in the KOSDAQ market, where information asymmetry is high. Our study differs from previous studies in that it demonstrates the effectiveness of the auditor designation system using various measures.

Assessment of weather events impacts on forage production trend of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid

  • Moonju Kim;Kyungil Sung
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.65 no.4
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    • pp.792-803
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to assess the impact of weather events on the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (Sorghum bicolor L.) cultivar production trend in the central inland region of Korea during the monsoon season, using time series analysis. The sorghum-sudangrass production data collected between 1988 and 2013 were compiled along with the production year's weather data. The growing degree days (GDD), accumulated rainfall, and sunshine duration were used to assess their impacts on forage production (kg/ha) trend. Conversely, GDD and accumulated rainfall had positive and negative effects on the trend of forage production, respectively. Meanwhile, weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoon were also collected based on weather warnings as weather events in the Korean monsoon season. The impact of weather events did not affect forage production, even with the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. Therefore, the trend of forage production for the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid was forecasted to slightly increase until 2045. The predicted forage production in 2045 will be 14,926 ± 6,657 kg/ha. It is likely that the damage by heavy rainfall and typhoons can be reduced through more frequent harvest against short-term single damage and a deeper extension of the root system against soil erosion and lodging. Therefore, in an environment that is rapidly changing due to climate change and extreme/abnormal weather, the cultivation of the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid would be advantageous in securing stable and robust forage production. Through this study, we propose the cultivation of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid as one of the alternative summer forage options to achieve stable forage production during the dynamically changing monsoon, in spite of rather lower nutrient value than that of maize (Zea mays L.).

Comparative Analysis of Supervised and Phenology-Based Approaches for Crop Mapping: A Case Study in South Korea

  • Ehsan Rahimi;Chuleui Jung
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to compare supervised classification methods with phenology-based approaches, specifically pixel-based and segment-based methods, for accurate crop mapping in agricultural landscapes. We utilized Sentinel-2A imagery, which provides multispectral data for accurate crop mapping. 31 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images were calculated from the Sentinel-2A data. Next, we employed phenology-based approaches to extract valuable information from the NDVI time series. A set of 10 phenology metrics was extracted from the NDVI data. For the supervised classification, we employed the maximum likelihood (MaxLike) algorithm. For the phenology-based approaches, we implemented both pixel-based and segment-based methods. The results indicate that phenology-based approaches outperformed the MaxLike algorithm in regions with frequent rainfall and cloudy conditions. The segment-based phenology approach demonstrated the highest kappa coefficient of 0.85, indicating a high level of agreement with the ground truth data. The pixel-based phenology approach also achieved a commendable kappa coefficient of 0.81, indicating its effectiveness in accurately classifying the crop types. On the other hand, the supervised classification method (MaxLike) yielded a lower kappa coefficient of 0.74. Our study suggests that segment-based phenology mapping is a suitable approach for regions like South Korea, where continuous cloud-free satellite images are scarce. However, establishing precise classification thresholds remains challenging due to the lack of adequately sampled NDVI data. Despite this limitation, the phenology-based approach demonstrates its potential in crop classification, particularly in regions with varying weather patterns.

Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern Iran: Estimating the Absolute Count and Relative Risk Using Ecological Data

  • Mohammadreza Zakeri;Alireza Mirahmadizadeh;Habibollah Azarbakhsh;Seyed Sina Dehghani;Maryam Janfada;Mohammad Javad Moradian;Leila Moftakhar;Mehdi Sharafi;Alireza Heiran
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.57 no.2
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    • pp.120-127
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased mortality rates. To assess this impact, this ecological study aimed to estimate the excess death counts in southern Iran. Methods: The study obtained weekly death counts by linking the National Death Registry and Medical Care Monitoring Center repositories. The P-score was initially estimated using a simple method that involved calculating the difference between the observed and expected death counts. The interrupted time series analysis was then used to calculate the mean relative risk (RR) of death during the first year of the pandemic. Results: Our study found that there were 5571 excess deaths from all causes (P-score=33.29%) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 48.03% of these deaths directly related to COVID-19. The pandemic was found to increase the risk of death from all causes (RR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.33), as well as in specific age groups such as those aged 35-49 (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32), 50-64 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.49), and ≥65 (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32) years old. Furthermore, there was an increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22). Conclusions: There was a 26% increase in the death count in southern Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of these excess deaths were not directly related to COVID-19, but rather other causes, with cardiovascular diseases being a major contributor.

Collapse failure mechanism of subway station under mainshock-aftershocks in the soft area

  • Zhen-Dong Cui;Wen-Xiang Yan;Su-Yang Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.303-316
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    • 2024
  • Seismic records are composed of mainshock and a series of aftershocks which often result in the incremental damage to underground structures and bring great challenges to the rescue of post-disaster and the repair of post-earthquake. In this paper, the repetition method was used to construct the mainshock-aftershocks sequence which was used as the input ground motion for the analysis of dynamic time history. Based on the Daikai station, the two-dimensional finite element model of soil-station was established to explore the failure process of station under different seismic precautionary intensities, and the concept of incremental damage of station was introduced to quantitatively analyze the damage condition of structure under the action of mainshock and two aftershocks. An arc rubber bearing was proposed for the shock absorption. With the arc rubber bearing, the mode of the traditional column end connection was changed from "fixed connection" to "hinged joint", and the ductility of the structure was significantly improved. The results show that the damage condition of the subway station is closely related to the magnitude of the mainshock. When the magnitude of the mainshock is low, the incremental damage to the structure caused by the subsequent aftershocks is little. When the magnitude of the mainshock is high, the subsequent aftershocks will cause serious incremental damage to the structure, and may even lead to the collapse of the station. The arc rubber bearing can reduce the damage to the station. The results can offer a reference for the seismic design of subway stations under the action of mainshock-aftershocks.

A Study on the Establishment of Urban Life Safety Abnormalities Detection Service Using Multi-Type Complex Sensor Information (다종 복합센서 정보를 활용한 도심 생활안전 이상감지 서비스 구축방안 연구)

  • Woochul Choi;Bong-Joo Jang
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.315-328
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a service construction plan using multiple complex sensor information to detect abnormal situations in urban life safety that are difficult to identify on CCTV. Method: This study selected service scenarios based on actual testbed data and analyzed service importance for local government control center operators, which are main users. Result: Service scenarios were selected as detection of day and night dynamic object, Detection of sudden temperature changes, and Detection of time-series temperature changes. As a result of AHP analysis, walking and mobility collision risk situation services and fire foreshadowing detection services leading to immediate major disasters were highly evaluated. Conclusion: This study is significant in proposing a plan to build an anomaly detection service that can be used in local governments based on real data. This study is significant in proposing a plan to build an anomaly detection service that can be used by local governments based on testbed data.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Regulation in Online Gaming Industry via Vector Autoregression Model (벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 활용한 온라인 게임 규제 영향에 대한 실증적 연구: 웹보드 게임을 중심으로)

  • Moonkyoung Jang;Seongmin Jeon;Byungjoon Yoo
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.123-145
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    • 2017
  • This study empirically examines the effects of regulation on online gaming. Going beyond ad hoc heuristic approaches on individual behavior, we investigate the effects of regulation on dynamic changes of games or service providers. In particular, we propose three theoretical perspectives: social influence to investigate the regulation effect, the role of prior experience to determine the difference in the regulation effect size through users' prior experience, and network externalities to discover the difference in the regulation effect size according to the number of users on an online gaming platform. We use the vector autoregression methodology to model patterns of the co-movement of online games and to forecast game usage. We find that online gamers are heterogeneous. Therefore, policy makers should make suitable regulations for each heterogeneous group to effectively avoid generating gaming addicts without interrupting the economic growth of the online gaming industry.

Stock Assessment and Management Implications of Small Yellow Croker in Korean Waters (한국 근해 참조기의 자원평가 및 관리방안)

  • ZHANG Chang Ik;KIM Suam;YOON Seong-Bong
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.282-290
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    • 1992
  • Based on surplus production models using fishery data for the last 20 years, a stock assessment was conducted for the small yellow croaker in Korean waters. The maximum sustainable yields (MSY) from the Schaefer and Fox models were estimated to be 37,000 metric tons (mt) and 33,450 mt. Zhang's model using time-series biomass with instantaneous coefficients of fishing mortality (F) and using time-series biomass and catch yielded MSY estimates of 45,328 mt and 40,160 mt, respectively. A yield-per-recruit analysis showed that the current yield per recruit of about 20g with F= 1.11 $yr^{-l}$, where the age at first capture $(t_c)$ is 0.604, was much lower than the maximum possible yield per recruit of 43g. Fixing $t_c$ at the current level and reducing fishing intensity (F) from 1.11 $yr^{-l}$ to 0.4 $yr^{-l}$ yielded only a small increase in predicted yield per recruit, from 20 to 25g. However, estimated yield per recruit increased to 43g by increasing $(t_c)$ from the current age (0.604) to age three with F fixed at the current level. This age at first capture corresponded to the optimal length which was obtained from the $F_{0.1}$ method. According to the analysis of stock recovery strategies employing the Zhang model, the optimum equilibrium biomass $(B^*_{MSY})$ which produces the maximum yield could be achieved after approximately five years at the lower fishing intensity (F=0.5).

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Research on the division of location types of domestic golf courses (국내 골프장의 입지적 유형분류에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Jung;Geong, Keun-Han
    • Asian Journal of Turfgrass Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2009
  • When viewing that since the 1990s local governments have tried to build golf courses as a plan to revitalize the attraction of home and abroad tourists and to increase their tax incomes and that big companies are interested in leisure business including golf courses as a future promising business in the 21st century, golf courses seem to continuously increase in the future. On the contrary, noticing that golf courses are not only the main culprit behind the damage of natural environment and environmental pollution but also a target of real estate speculation and that golf makes a sense of incongruity between the classes of a society as a luxury sports, environment activists and local residents raise criticism to golf. Golf in our country shows a special sports phenomenon of which the pros and cons appear continuously. So, it is judged that policy for golf development direction should be set up based on verified scientific data. Thus, the research aims at deriving the location types of golf courses by looking at laws from the period of formation of the initial domestic golf courses to the recent period, grasping their distribution status according to time series and regions, conducting a questionnaire survey regarding location factors for golfers and the workers of golf courses, and dividing golf courses into several types. It is expected that the research will be a fundamental material when a golf course is built later on, contributing to the research of golf courses.