• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-lag model

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Effect of Air Pollution on Emergency Room Visits for Asthma : a Time Series Analysis (대기오염과 천식발작의 관련성에 관한 시계열적 연구)

  • Ju, Young-Su;Cho, Soo-Hun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : To evaluate the hypothesis that increasing ambient levels of ozone or particulate matter are associated with increased emergency room visits for asthma and to quantify the strength of association, if any, between these. Methods : Daily counts of emergency room visits for asthma, air quality, and weather data were collected from hospitals with over 200 beds and from monitoring Stations in Seoul, Korea from 1994 through 1997. Daily counts of emergency mom visits for asthma attack were analyzed using a general additive Poisson model, with adjustment for the effects of secular trend, seasonal variation, Sunday and holiday, temperature, and humidly, according to levels of ozone and particulate matter. Results : The association between daily counts of emergency room visits for asthma attack and ozone levels was statistically significant in summer(from June to August), and the RR by unit inclement of 100 ppb ozone was 1.30(95% CI = $1.11\sim1.52$) without lag time. With restriction of the period from April to September in 1996, the RR was 1.37(95% CI = $1.06\sim1.76$), and from June to August in 1995, the RR was 1.62(95% CI = $1.12\sim2.35$). In the data for children$(5\sim14yr)$, the RR was 2.57(95% CI = $1.31\sim5.05$) with restriction of the period from April to September in 1997. There was no Significant association between TSP levels and asthma attacks, but a slight association was seen between PM10 levels and asthma attacks in a very restricted period. Conclusion : There was a statistically significant association between ambient levels of ozone and daily counts of emergency room visits for asthma attack. Therefore, we must make efforts to effectively minimize air pollution, in order to protect public health.

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Effect of inwards FDI on new venture creation, industrialization and economic growth in Russia: A timeseries ARDL approach

  • Kristina, Yuryeva;He, Zhengquan
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2022
  • This research aimed to clarify the impacts casted by inwards FDI on New venture creation, industrialization, and the economic growth of Russia. For all of these variables, data was taken about Russia from the site of The World Bank, and the selected duration was from 1995 to 2019. The total duration of the data taken was from 24 years. The time duration was well enough for applying the A.R.D.L. approach to the time series data of the study. This research used the unit root test to know the presence of the unit root for each variable, the lag order selection was made for the data, the bounds cointegration test was also applied, and ARDL Model was used to know about the different effects. With the help of the results derived, it was observed that the impact of private sector investment on new venture creation is significant. In contrast, foreign direct investment and research and development (R&D) effects on new venture creation are insignificant. It was also observed from the results that the impact of R&D on industrialization in Russia is significant, while the effects of FDI and the impact of private sector investment on industrialization in Russia is insignificant. We have fund that the effect of FDI and the impact of private sector investment on the economic growth of Russia is significant. In contrast, the impact of R&D is insignificant to the economic growth of Russia. The study is of great significance as it has raised the importance of R&D for industrialization, FDI, and PSI for economic growth and new venture creation for developing countries.

A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1990
  • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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Development of Passenger Forecasting System to Improve the Service for the Passenger in the Terminal Building (여객 서비스 개선을 위한 승객예고 시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Sang-Yong;Yoo, Kwang-Eui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.181-190
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    • 2005
  • The time required for airport process is considered more important as the airports are becoming bigger. International Civil Aviation Organization mattes this international standards and recommends not to exceed it. The passenger forecasting model is developed to predict the number of passengers at the check-in counter, and the area of formalities for departure and entry. In case of forecasting the number of outbound-passengers. the patterns of show-up lead time(SLT) at the check-in counter and lag time from check-in counter to the area of departure formalities are modeled in terms of time. On the other hand, the matter of the choice of check-in counters and areas of departure formalities are modeled in terms of space. In case of forecasting the number of inbound-passengers and transfer passengers, the time of airplane movement from arrival to block on at the gate and the time of passengers required from gate to the area of formalities for entry are modeled in terms of time. While the matter of the choice of gates and the areas of formalities for entry are modeled in terms of space. The average error of forecasting outbound-passengers and inbound-passengers is respectively 15% and 10%, which are considered excellent with the 5% error of passenger reservation information as input data. Through the development of passenger forecasting models, we assure we could provide passengers with valuable service because we allocate resource such as employees and equipments according to the degree of concentration of passengers.

MODFLOW or FEFLOW: A Case Study of Groundwater Model Selection for the Upper Waikato Catchment, New Zealand

  • Weir, Julian;Moore, Dr Catherine;Hadfield, John
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2011
  • Groundwater in the Waikatoregion is a valuable resource for agriculture, water supply, forestry and industries. The 434,000 ha study area comprises the upper Waikato River catchment from the outflow of Lake Taupo (New Zealand's largest lake) through to Lake Karapiro (a man-made hydro lake with high recreational value) (Figure 1). Water quality in the area is naturally high. However, there are indications that this quality is deteriorating as a result of land use intensification and deforestation. Compounding this concern for decision makers is the lag time between land use changes and the realisation of effects on groundwater and surface water quality. It is expected that the effects of land use changes have not yet fully manifested, and additional intensification may take decadesto fully develop, further compounding the deterioration. Consequently, Environment Waikato (EW) have proposed a programme of work to develop a groundwater model to assist managing water quality and appropriate policy development within the catchment. One of the most important and critical decisions of any modelling exercise is the choice of the modelling platform to be used. It must not inhibit future decision making and scenario exploration and needs to allow as accurate representation of reality as feasible. With this in mind, EW requested that two modelling platforms, MODFLOW/MT3DMS and FEFLOW, be assessed for their ability to deliver the long-term modelling objectives for this project. The two platforms were compared alongside various selection criteria including complexity of model set-up and development, computational burden, ease and accuracy of representing surface water-groundwater interactions, precision in predictive scenarios and ease with which the model input and output files could be interrogated. This latter criteria is essential for the thorough assessment of predictive uncertainty with third-party software, such as PEST. This paper will focus on the attributes of each modelling platform and the comparison of the two approaches against the key criteria in the selection process. Primarily due to the ease of handling and developing input files and interrogating output files, MODFLOW/MT3DMS was selected as the preferred platform. Other advantages and disadvantages of the two modelling platforms were somewhat balanced. A preliminary regional groundwater numerical model of the study area was subsequently constructed. The model simulates steady state groundwater and surface water flows using MODFLOW and transient contaminant transport with MT3DMS, focussing on nitrate nitrogen (as a conservative solute). Geological information for this project was provided by GNS Science. Professional peer review was completed by Dr. Vince Bidwell (of Lincoln Environmental).

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Enhancement of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide Associated with Upper Cut-off Low during Springtime in East Asia

  • Moon, Yun-Seob;Drummond, James R.
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.475-489
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    • 2010
  • In order to verify the enhancement of ozone and carbon monoxide (CO) during springtime in East Asia, we investigated weather conditions and data from remote sensors, air quality models, and air quality monitors. These include the geopotential height archived from the final (FNL) meteorological field, the potential vorticity and the wind velocity simulated by the Meteorological Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the back trajectory estimated by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, the total column amount of ozone and the aerosol index retrieved from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the total column density of CO retrieved from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), and the concentration of ozone and CO simulated by the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART). In particular, the total column density of CO, which mightoriginate from the combustion of fossil fuels and the burning of biomass in China, increased in East Asia during spring 2000. In addition, the enhancement of total column amounts of ozone and CO appeared to be associated with both the upper cut-off low near 500 hPa and the frontogenesis of a surface cyclone during a weak Asian dust event. At the same time, high concentrations of ozone and CO on the Earth's surface were shown at the Seoul air quality monitoring site, located at the surface frontogenesis in Korea. It was clear that the ozone was invaded by the downward stretched vortex anomalies, which included the ozone-rich airflow, during movement and development of the cut-off low, and then there was the catalytic photochemical reaction of ozone precursors on the Earth's surface during the day. In addition, air pollutants such as CO and aerosol were tracked along both the cyclone vortex and the strong westerly as shown at the back trajectory in Seoul and Busan, respectively. Consequently, the maxima of ozone and CO between the two areas showed up differently because of the time lag between those gases, including their catalytic photochemical reactions together with the invasion from the upper troposphere, as well as the path of their transport from China during the weak Asian dust event.

Characteristics for Co-digestion of Food Waste and Night Soil using BMP Test (BMP실험을 이용한 음식물폐기물 및 분뇨의 병합소화 특성)

  • Cho, Jinkyu;Kim, Hyungjin;Oh, Daemin
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2014
  • BMP test was carried out to evaluate the characteristics for co-digestion of night soil and food waste. 6 types of sludge were tested in 30 days which were raw, excess, digested, night soil/septic tank (1:1), food waste (food : dilution water = 1:1), and mixed sludge. Bio gas was produced actively after 2 days, and continued in 2 weeks. Gas generation amount was decreased rapidly after considerable space of time. Especially maximum productivity of gas was shown in 7~8 days. The ultimate methane yields of raw, excess, digested, night soil/septic tank, food waste, and mixed sludge were 64.63, 67.49, 66.45, 72.44, 107.85, and 46.71 mL $CH_4/g$ VS respectively from Modified Gompertz model. The lag growth phase time and maximum specific methane production rate of mixed sludge were 1.88 day and 80.4 mL/day respectively. The methane potential of mixed sludge was higher than individual sludge. So high methane potential was expected by controlling mixing ratio of food waste. Besides stable operation of digestion tank and the solution of oligotrophic problem were possible.

Estimation of river discharge using satellite-derived flow signals and artificial neural network model: application to imjin river (Satellite-derived flow 시그널 및 인공신경망 모형을 활용한 임진강 유역 유출량 산정)

  • Li, Li;Kim, Hyunglok;Jun, Kyungsoo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.7
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    • pp.589-597
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated the use of satellite-derived flow (SDF) signals and a data-based model for the estimation of outflow for the river reach where in situ measurements are either completely unavailable or are difficult to access for hydraulic and hydrology analysis such as the upper basin of Imjin River. It has been demonstrated by many studies that the SDF signals can be used as the river width estimates and the correlation between SDF signals and river width is related to the shape of cross sections. To extract the nonlinear relationship between SDF signals and river outflow, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with SDF signals as its inputs were applied for the computation of flow discharge at Imjin Bridge located in Imjin River. 15 pixels were considered to extract SDF signals and Partial Mutual Information (PMI) algorithm was applied to identify the most relevant input variables among 150 candidate SDF signals (including 0~10 day lagged observations). The estimated discharges by ANN model were compared with the measured ones at Imjin Bridge gauging station and correlation coefficients of the training and validation were 0.86 and 0.72, respectively. It was found that if the 1 day previous discharge at Imjin bridge is considered as an input variable for ANN model, the correlation coefficients were improved to 0.90 and 0.83, respectively. Based on the results in this study, SDF signals along with some local measured data can play an useful role in river flow estimation and especially in flood forecasting for data-scarce regions as it can simulate the peak discharge and peak time of flood events with satisfactory accuracy.

The Efficiency Analysis of National R&D Programs for Drug Development Using Range Adjusted Measure (영역조절모형(RAM)을 활용한 신약개발 국가연구개발사업의 효율성 분석)

  • Um, Ik-Cheon;Baek, Chulwoo;Hong, Seho
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.711-735
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    • 2016
  • Drug Development is very important for promoting public health and pharmaceutical industry. There has been many studies on the efficiency of drug development, but there are few studies on the drug development R&D performed by government. Since CCR model assumes unidirectional influence of input and output, it is not appropriate to analyze the efficiency of R&D due to the time-lag and spill-over effect. Also, BBC model which assumes variable returns to scale has difficulty in deriving priorities between decision making units. Recently, Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) model has been suggested in R&D efficiency analysis. RAM model measures the efficincy by eliminating inefficiencies under variable returns to scale assumption, and its strong monotonicity enables to provide clear priorities between decision making units. In this study, we analyzed the efficiency of national R&D programs for drug development using the two-step approach, including RAM model and Tobit regression analysis, and discussed major policy implications.

A Study of Loudspeaker Specifications by the Back Cavity and a change of Electrical Load (스피커의 후면기공과 입력부하의 변화에 따른 스피커의 음향특성)

  • Yon Ju-Bong;Yi Han-Ryang
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • autumn
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    • pp.233-236
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    • 2001
  • 일반적으로 스피커를 동작시키게 되면, 스피커 보이스 코일에 열이 발생하게 되고, 열에 의한 보이스코일의 저항의 증가가 나타나게 되는데, 기존의 연구는 저음용 스피커(Woofer) 만을 대상으로 스피커의 음향특성 변화들에 관해 수행되었다. 그러나, 현대의 스피커는 A/V시스템분야의 발전에 따라 고음재생의 충실도가 강조되고 있는 경향이므로, 고음용 스피커(Tweeter)에 대한 열 발생의 영향을 조사하였다. 본 연구에서는 고음용 스피커의 입력전력에 따른 특성 변화를 조사하고, 입력전력의 증가로 인한 보이스코일(voice coil)의 저항 증가에 따른 고음용 스피커의 특성변화에 관해 실험하였다. 그리고, 스피커의 진동에 의한 펌프(pump) 역할을 이용하는 냉각용 구멍을 뚫어 스피커의 특성변화를 검토하였다. 실험대상으로는 직경 25mm의 돔(Dome)형 진동판을 가진 고음용 스피커와 이 스피커의 후면 중심부에 구멍을 뚫어 열 방출구가 형성된 3종의 시료를 대상으로 특성변화를 비교$\cdot$측정하였다. 여기에서, 사용된 시료는 국내 Y사의 판매용 고음용 스피커로 제품의 원 상태인, 구멍이 없는 것을 기준시료로 하고, 이와 동일한 제품들의 후면에 각각 직경 5mm, 10mm, 15mm의 구멍을 가공하여 비교시료로 하였다. 기준 및 비교시료의 스피커 특성을, 한국산업규격 KS C 6027의 측정법에 따라, 입력 1W 상태에서 기준시료의 사양을 측정하였고[1], 입력을 0.5W, 1W, 2W, 4W, 8W, 16W로 가하여, 시료별 입력증가에 따른 스피커의 주파수 응답특성, 임피던스(Impedance), 조화 왜(Harmonic Distortion)의 변화율 측정을 통해 스피커의 특성변화 정도를 검토하였다. 향후, 본 연구의 결과는 고음용 스피커의 특성 열화에 대한 예측 및 개선 방안을 제시하는 기본 자료로 활용이 가능할 것으로 사료된다.용하여 현금흐름예측을 할 수 있는 Model을 제시하였다. 특히 건설공사의 현금흐름 예측의 중요한 요소인 Cash-Out에 대하여, 공사비 구성요소인 자재, 노무, 중기, 외주, 경비등 각 Resource의 보할(Weights)을 실 공사원가에 따른 보할의 변화와 Resource들의 Time Lag를 적용 기존 연구자의 Model과 다른 Model을 제시하였다. 또한 기존 연구자들의 Model과 비교하여 편리성, 정확도 및 신뢰성이 높은 Model임도 증명하였다.세대까지도 발현수준이 유지될 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 연구결과는 계통으로 확립된 형질전환 동물에 부여된 새로운 유전형질은 지속적으로 후대로 유전될 수 있음을 제시한다.잖⨀瘀Ā퀇Āゑ잖⨀Ā퀇Ԁ￿™잖⨀䌀Ā퀇ĀꄏĀꀏꄏĀꀏ₱?⨀Ā Ԁ￿䂱?⨀ऀĀ耀Ā삱?⨀؀Ā Ā?⨀ጀĀ耀Ā?돀ꢘ?⨀硩?⨀ႎ?⨀?⨀넆돐쁖잖⨀쁖잖⨀/ࠐ?⨀焆덐瀆倆Āⶇ퍟ⶇ퍟ĀĀĀĀ磀鲕좗?⨀肤?⨀⁅Ⴅ?⨀쀃잖⨀䣙熸ጁ↏?⨀

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