• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time-lag model

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The Development of Dynamic Model for Long-Term Simulation in Water Distribution Systems (상수관망시스템에서의 장기간 모의를 위한 동역학적 모형의 개발)

  • Park, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2007
  • In this study, a long-term unsteady simulation model has been developed using rigid water column theory which is more accurate than Extended-period model and more efficient comparing with water-hammer simulation model. The developed model is applied to 24-hours unsteady simulation considering daily water-demand and water-hammer analysis caused by closing a valve. For the case of 24-hours daily simulation, the pressure of each node decreases as the water demand increase, and when the water demand decrease, the pressure increases. During the simulation, the amplitudes of flow and pressure variation are different in each node and the pattern of flow variation as well as water demand is quite different than that of KYPIPE2. Such discrepancy necessitates the development of unsteady flow analysis model in water distribution network system. When the model is applied to water-hammer analysis, the pressure and flow variation occurred simultaneously through the entire network system by neglecting the compressibility of water. Although water-hammer model shows the lag of travel time due to fluid elasticity, in the aspect of pressure and flow fluctuation, the trend of overall variation and quantity of the result are similar to that of water-hammer model. This model is expected for the analysis of gradual long-term unsteady flow variations providing computational accuracy and efficiency as well as identifying pollutant dispersion, pressure control, leakage reduction corresponding to flow-demand pattern, and management of long-term pipeline net work systems related with flowrate and pressure variation in pipeline network systems

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Listeria monocytogenes Scott A as a Function of Temperature, pH, and Commercial Mixture of Potassium Lactate and Sodium Diacetate

  • Abou-Zeid, Khaled A.;Oscar, Thomas P.;Schwarz, Jurgen G.;Hashem, Fawzy M.;Whiting, Richard C.;Yoon, Kisun
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.19 no.7
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    • pp.718-726
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study was to develop and validate secondary models that can predict growth parameters of L. monocytogenes Scott A as a function of concentrations (0-3%) of a commercial potassium lactate (PL) and sodium diacetate (SDA) mixture, pH (5.5-7.0), and temperature (4-37DC). A total of 120 growth curves were fitted to the Baranyi primary model that directly estimates lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). The effects of the variables on L. monocytogenes Scott A growth kinetics were modeled by response surface analysis using quadratic and cubic polynomial models of the natural logarithm transformation of both LT and SGR. Model performance was evaluated with dependent data and independent data using the prediction bias ($B_f$) and accuracy factors ($A_f$) as well as the acceptable prediction zone method [percentage of relative errors (%RE)]. Comparison of predicted versus observed values of SGR indicated that the cubic model fits better than the quadratic model, particularly at 4 and $10^{\circ}C$. The $B_f$and $A_f$for independent SGR were 1.00 and 1.08 for the cubic model and 1.08 and 1.16 for the quadratic model, respectively. For cubic and quadratic models, the %REs for the independent SGR data were 92.6 and 85.7, respectively. Both quadratic and cubic polynomial models for SGR and LT provided acceptable predictions of L. monocytogenes Scott A growth in the matrix of conditions described in the present study. Model performance can be more accurately evaluated with $B_f$and $A_f$and % RE together.

Numerical Analysis of Multi-dimensional Consolidation Based on Non-Linear Model (비선형 모델에 의한 다차원 압밀의 수치해석)

  • Jeong, Jin-Seop;Gang, Byeong-Seon;Nam, Gung-Mun
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 1985
  • This paper deals with the numerical analysis by the (mite element method introducing Biot's theory of consolidation and the modified Cambridge model proposed by Roscoe school of Cambridge University as constitutive equation and using Christian-Boehner's technique. Especially, time interval and division of elements are investigated in vies of stability and economics. In order to check the validity of author's program, the program was tested with one-dimensional consolidation case followed by Terzaghi's exact solution and with the results of the Magnan's analysis for existing banking carried out for study at Cubzac-les-ports in France. The main conclusions obtained are summarized as follows: 1. In the case of one-dimensional consolidation, the more divided the elements are near the surface of the foundation, the higher the accuracy of the numerical analysis is. 2. For the time interval, it is stable to divide 20 times per 1-lg cycle. 3. At the element which has long drain distance, the Mandel-fryer effect appears due to time lag. 4. Lateral displacement at an initial loading stage predicted by author's program, in which the load was assumed as not concentrative. but rather in grid form, is well consistent with the value of observation. 5. The pore water pressure predicted by author's program has a better accordance with the value of observation compared with Magnan's results. 6. Optimum construction control by Matsuo-Kawamura's method is possible with the predicted lateral displacement and settlement by the program.

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A Study on the Early Warning Model of Crude Oil Shipping Market Using Signal Approach (신호접근법에 의한 유조선 해운시장 위기 예측 연구)

  • Bong Keun Choi;Dong-Keun Ryoo
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.167-173
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    • 2023
  • The manufacturing industry is the backbone of the Korean economy. Among them, the petrochemical industry is a strategic growth industry, which makes a profit through reexports based on eminent technology in South Korea which imports all of its crude oil. South Korea imports whole amount of crude oil, which is the raw material for many manufacturing industries, by sea transportation. Therefore, it must respond swiftly to a highly volatile tanker freight market. This study aimed to make an early warning model of crude oil shipping market using a signal approach. The crisis of crude oil shipping market is defined by BDTI. The overall leading index is made of 38 factors from macro economy, financial data, and shipping market data. Only leading correlation factors were chosen to be used for the overall leading index. The overall leading index had the highest correlation coefficient factor of 0.499 two months ago. It showed a significant correlation coefficient five months ago. The QPS value was 0.13, which was found to have high accuracy for crisis prediction. Furthermore, unlike other previous time series forecasting model studies, this study quantitatively approached the time lag between economic crisis and the crisis of the tanker ship market, providing workers and policy makers in the shipping industry with an framework for strategies that could effectively deal with the crisis.

Investigating Foreign Direct Investment Attractive Factors of Korean Direct Investment into Vietnam

  • TA, Van Loi;LE, Quoc Hoi;NGUYEN, Thi Lien Huong;PHAN, Thuy Thao;DO, Anh Duc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2020
  • This paper aims to investigate FDI attractive factors, which are important to formulate policies to attract Korean direct investment into Vietnam. Based on the literature review and the results of interview with 27 Korean investors in Vietnam, we determined the model of variables attracting Korea's FDI into Vietnam. It is used to assess the impact of attractive factors belonging to three groups of variables to support investment decision; they are macroeconomics variables (including market size factor, labor cost factor, and market openness factor), policies variables (including monetary policy factor and tax rate gap factor), and microeconomics variables (geographic advantage factor representative by location). This research also utilized a relatively new quantitative research method based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) with the time data chain from 1995 to 2017 of Korean FDI into Vietnam. It analyzes long-term relationships between dependent variables and independent variables. The result of this study indicates that there are three positive factors (low wages, trade openness and government policy) explaining the FDI flows in the long term. The result also shows that incentive tax policy has had a positive impact on Korean FDI, which has satisfied the aim of seeking efficiency of Korean investors.

Simulation of Dynamic Behavior of Glucose- and Tryptophan-Grown Escherichia coli Using Constraint-Based Metabolic Models with a Hierarchical Regulatory Network

  • Lee Sung-Gun;Kim Yu-Jin;Han Sang-Il;Oh You-Kwan;Park Sung-Hoon;Kim Young-Han;Hwang Kyu-Suk
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.993-998
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    • 2006
  • We earlier suggested a hierarchical regulatory network using defined modeling symbols and weights in order to improve the flux balance analysis (FBA) with regulatory events that were represented by if-then rules and Boolean logic. In the present study, the simulation results of the models, which were developed and improved from the previou model by incorporating a hierarchical regulatory network into the FBA, were compared with the experimental outcome of an aerobic batch growth of E. coli on glucose and tryptophan. From the experimental result, a diauxic growth curve was observed, reflecting growth resumption, when tryptophan was used as an alternativee after the supply of glucose was exhausted. The model parameters, the initial concentration of substrates (0.92 mM glucose and 1 mM tryptophan), cell density (0.0086 g biomass/1), the maximal uptake rates of substrates (5.4 mmol glucose/g DCW h and 1.32 mmol tryptophan/g DCW h), and lag time (0.32 h) were derived from the experimental data for more accurate prediction. The simulation results agreed with the experimental outcome of the temporal profiles of cell density and glucose, and tryptophan concentrations.

Analysis of Hydraulic Characteristics of Two Solenoid-driven Injectors for CRDi System (2개 솔레노이드 구동방식별 CRDi용 인젝터의 유압 동특성 해석)

  • Lee, Jin-Wook;Lee, Jung-Hyup;Kim, Min-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 2011
  • The injection nozzle of an electro-hydraulic injector for the common rail Diesel fuel injection system is being opened and closed by movement of a injector's needle which is balanced by pressure at the nozzle seat and at the needle control chamber, at the opposite end of the needle. In this study, the slenoid actuator was considered as a prime movers in high pressure Diesel injector. Namely a solenoid-driven Diesel injector with different driving current types, as a general method driven by solenoid coil energy, has been applied with a purpose to develop the analysis model of the solenoid actuator to predict the dynamics characteristics of the hydraulic component (injector) by using the AMESim code. Aimed at simulating the hydraulic behavior of the solenoid-driven injector, the circuit model has been developed as a unified approach to mechanical modeling in this study. As this analytic results, we know the suction force and first order time lag for driving force can be endowed in solenoid-driven injector in controlling the injection rate. Also it can predict that the input current wave exerted on solenoid coil is the dominant factor which affects on the initial needle behavior of solenoid-driven injector than the hydraulic force generated by the constant injection pressure.

A study using spatial regression models on the determinants of the welfare expenditure in the local governments in Korea (공간회귀분석을 통한 지방자치단체 복지지출의 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Gyu-Beom;Ham, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of the change in the welfare expenditure of local governments in 2015. This study analyzed the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among neighboring local governments and determined the factors affecting the welfare expenditures. According to the results of the study, spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among local governments appears. Determinants, such as socio-economic factors, administrative factors, public financial factors are affecting the amount of the welfare expenditures, but local political factors, and local tax, last year's budgets are not correlated with the amount of local welfare expenditures. In this study, it is significant to found out that the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among the local governments and to examine the determinants. If possible, it is necessary to analyze the time-series analysis using the multi-year welfare expenditure data, expecially self-welfare expenditures.

Health Risk Estimation for Daily Maximum Temperature in the Summer Season using Healthcare Big Data (보건의료빅데이터를 이용한 여름철 일최고기온에 대한 건강위험도 평가)

  • Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Kim, Yoo-Keun;Oh, Inbo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.617-627
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    • 2019
  • This study investigated the relationship between heat-related illnesses obtained from healthcare big data and daily maximum temperature observed in seven metropolitan cities in summer during 2013~2015. We found a statistically significant positive correlation (r = 0.4~0.6) between daily maximum temperature and number of the heat-related patients from Pearson's correlation analyses. A time lag effect was not observed. Relative Risk (RR) analysis using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) showed that the RR of heat-related illness increased with increasing threshold temperature (maximum RR = 1.21). A comparison of the RRs of the seven cities, showed that the values were significantly different by geographical location of the city and had different variations for different threshold temperatures. The RRs for elderly people were clearly higher than those for the all-age group. Especially, a maximum value of 1.83 was calculated at the threshold temperature of $35^{\circ}C$ in Seoul. In addition, relatively higher RRs were found for inland cities (Seoul, Gwangju, Daegu, and Daejeon), which had a high frequency of heat waves. These results demonstrate the significant risk of heat-related illness associated with increasing daily maximum temperature and the difference in adaptation ability to heat wave for each city, which could help improve the heat wave advisory and warning system.

Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Malaysia: An ARDL Approach

  • YOONG, Foo Tzen;LATIP, Abdul Rahman Abdul;SANUSI, Nur Azura;KUSAIRI, Suhal
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.