• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series simulation

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DMD based modal analysis and prediction of Kirchhoff-Love plate (DMD기반 Kirchhoff-Love 판의 모드 분석과 수치해 예측)

  • Shin, Seong-Yoon;Jo, Gwanghyun;Bae, Seok-Chan
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.1586-1591
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    • 2022
  • Kirchhoff-Love plate (KLP) equation is a well established theory for a description of a deformation of a thin plate under certain outer source. Meanwhile, analysis of a vibrating plate in a frequency domain is important in terms of obtaining the main frequency/eigenfunctions and predicting the vibration of plate. Among various modal analysis methods, dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is one of the efficient data-driven methods. In this work, we carry out DMD based modal analysis for KLP where thin plate is under effects of sine-type outer force. We first construct discrete time series of KLP solutions based on a finite difference method (FDM). Over 720,000 number of FDM-generated solutions, we select only 500 number of solutions for the DMD implementation. We report the resulting DMD-modes for KLP. Also, we show how DMD can be used to predict KLP solutions in an efficient way.

A Study on the Agent Based Infection Prediction Model Using Space Big Data -focusing on MERS-CoV incident in Seoul- (공간 빅데이터를 활용한 행위자 기반 전염병 확산 예측 모형 구축에 관한 연구 -서울특별시 메르스 사태를 중심으로-)

  • JEON, Sang-Eun;SHIN, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.94-106
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    • 2018
  • The epidemiological model is useful for creating simulation and associated preventive measures for disease spread, and provides a detailed understanding of the spread of disease space through contact with individuals. In this study, propose an agent-based spatial model(ABM) integrated with spatial big data to simulate the spread of MERS-CoV infections in real time as a result of the interaction between individuals in space. The model described direct contact between individuals and hospitals, taking into account three factors : population, time, and space. The dynamic relationship of the population was based on the MERS-CoV case in Seoul Metropolitan Government in 2015. The model was used to predict the occurrence of MERS, compare the actual spread of MERS with the results of this model by time series, and verify the validity of the model by applying various scenarios. Testing various preventive measures using the measures proposed to select a quarantine strategy in the event of MERS-CoV outbreaks is expected to play an important role in controlling the spread of MERS-CoV.

A Study on Predictive Traffic Control Algorithms for ABR Services (ABR 서비스를 위한 트래픽 예측 제어 알고리즘 연구)

  • 오창윤;장봉석
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2000
  • Asynchronous transfer mode is flexible to support multimedia communication services using asynchronous time-sharing and statistical multimedia techniques to the existing data communication area, ATM ABR service controls network traffic using feedback information on the network congestion situation in order to guarantee the demanded service qualities and the available cell rates, In this paper we apply the control method using queue length prediction to the formation of feedback information for more efficient ABR traffic control. If backward node receive the longer delayed feedback information on the impending congestion, the switch can be already congested from the uncontrolled arriving traffic and the fluctuation of queue length can be inefficiently high in the continuing time intervals, The feedback control method proposed in this paper predicts the queue length in the switch using the slope of queue length prediction function and queue length changes in time-series, The predicted congestion information is backward to the node, NLMS and neural network are used as the predictive control functions, and they are compared from performance on the queue length prediction. Simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed method compared to the feedback control method without the prediction, Therefore, we conclude that the efficient congestion and stability of the queue length controls are possible using the prediction scheme that can resolve the problems caused from the longer delays of the feedback information.

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An Active Queue Management Method Based on the Input Traffic Rate Prediction for Internet Congestion Avoidance (인터넷 혼잡 예방을 위한 입력율 예측 기반 동적 큐 관리 기법)

  • Park, Jae-Sung;Yoon, Hyun-Goo
    • 전자공학회논문지 IE
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose a new active queue management (AQM) scheme by utilizing the predictability of the Internet traffic. The proposed scheme predicts future traffic input rate by using the auto-regressive (AR) time series model and determines the future congestion level by comparing the predicted input rate with the service rate. If the congestion is expected, the packet drop probability is dynamically adjusted to avoid the anticipated congestion level. Unlike the previous AQM schemes which use the queue length variation as the congestion measure, the proposed scheme uses the variation of the traffic input rate as the congestion measure. By predicting the network congestion level, the proposed scheme can adapt more rapidly to the changing network condition and stabilize the average queue length and its variation even if the traffic input level varies widely. Through ns-2 simulation study in varying network environments, we compare the performance among RED, Adaptive RED (ARED), REM, Predicted AQM (PAQM) and the proposed scheme in terms of average queue length and packet drop rate, and show that the proposed scheme is more adaptive to the varying network conditions and has shorter response time.

A study on the derivation and evaluation of flow duration curve (FDC) using deep learning with a long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and soil water assessment tool (SWAT) (LSTM Networks 딥러닝 기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;An, Sung-Wook;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1107-1118
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    • 2021
  • Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

Climate Change by Global Warming and Its Effects on Production Efficiency of Lactating Dairy Cows in Korea : a Simulation Modeling Approach (지구온난화에 따른 국내 기후변화와 젖소 착유우의 생산효율에 미치는 영향 평가 : 모델 시뮬레이션을 이용한 접근)

  • Lee, Jung-Jin;Lee, Jun-Sung;Kim, Jong-Nam;Seo, Ja-Keum;Jo, Nam-Chul;Park, Seong-Min;Ki, Kwang-Seok;Seo, Seong-Won
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.711-723
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    • 2013
  • The objectives of this study were to access climate change by global warming in Korea, and to investigate its effects on production efficiency of lactating dairy cows. Two regions, Daegu and Daekwanryung, were selected to represent a warm and a cold area, respectively. Time-series analyses on meteorological records for 25 years (from January 1, 1988 to December 31, 2012) revealed significant and different climate changes in two regions. In the warm area there has been a significant (P<0.05) increase in low temperature during the summer, which can cause heat stress to the animal. On the other hand, a decrease in low temperature during the winter was observed in the cold region (P<0.01), and cold stress in winter can thus be an issue in this region. Simulations using a model integrated the Korean feeding standard for dairy cattle and the environmental effect module of Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System, indicated that a reduction in feed efficiency can be a problem during the winter in the cold region while during the summer in the warm area. We conclude that the effect of climate change by global warming varies in different areas in Korea and a region-specific management strategy should be developed in order to maintain productivity, health and welfare of lactating dairy cows.

Implementation of a Kinematic Network-Based Single-Frequency GPS Measurement Model and Its Simulation Tests for Precise Positioning and Attitude Determination of Surveying Vessel (동적네트워크 기반 단일주파수 GPS 관측데이터 모델링을 통한 측량선의 정밀측위 및 자세각결정 알고리즘 구현과 수치실험에 의한 성능분석)

  • Hungkyu, Lee;Siwan, Lyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2015
  • In order to support the development of a cost-effective river bathymetric system, this research has focused on modeling GPS observables, which are obtained by array of five single-frequency receivers (i.e., two references and three rovers) to estimate the high accurate kinematic position, and the surveying vessel altitude. Also, by applying all GPS measurements as multiple-baselines with constraining rover baselines, we derived the socalled ‘kinematic network model.’ From the model, the integer-constrained least-squares (LS) for position estimation and the implicit LS for attitude determination were implemented, while a series of simulation tests with respect to the baseline lengths around 2km performed to demonstrate its accuracy analysis. The on-the-fly (OTF) ambiguity resolution tests revealed that ninety-nine percents of time-to-fix-first ambiguity (TTFF) can be decided in less than two seconds, when the positioning accuracy of ambiguity-fixed solutions was assessed as the greater than or equal to one and two centimeters in horizontal and vertical, respectively. Comparing to the GPS-derived attitudes, the achievable accuracy gradually descended in sequence of yaw, pitch and roll due to the antenna geometric configuration. Furthermore, the RMSE values for the baseline lengths of three to six meters were within ±1′for yaw, and less than ±10′and ±20′for pitch and roll, respectively, but those of between six to fifteen meters were less than ±1′for yaw, ±5′for pitch, and ±10′for roll.

Application of High Resolution Multi-satellite Precipitation Products and a Distributed Hydrological Modeling for Daily Runoff Simulation (고해상도 다중위성 강수자료와 분포형 수문모형의 유출모의 적용)

  • Kim, Jong Pil;Park, Kyung-Won;Jung, Il-Won;Han, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Gwangseob
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2013
  • In this study we evaluated the hydrological applicability of multi-satellite precipitation estimates. Three high-resolution global multi-satellite precipitation products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and the Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) Morphing technique (CMORPH), were applied to the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model for the evaluation of their hydrological utility. The CREST model was calibrated from 2002 to 2005 and validated from 2006 to 2009 in the Chungju Dam watershed, including two years of warm-up periods (2002-2003 and 2006-2007). Areal-averaged precipitation time series of the multi-satellite data were compared with those of the ground records. The results indicate that the multi-satellite precipitation can reflect the seasonal variation of precipitation in the Chungju Dam watershed. However, TMPA overestimates the amount of annual and monthly precipitation while GSMaP and CMORPH underestimate the precipitation during the period from 2002 to 2009. These biases of multi-satellite precipitation products induce poor performances in hydrological simulation, although TMPA is better than both of GSMaP and CMORPH. Our results indicate that advanced rainfall algorithms may be required to improve its hydrological applicability in South Korea.

Dispersion in the Unsteady Separated Flow Past Complex Geometries (복합지형상에서 비정상 박리흐름에 의한 확산)

  • Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.512-527
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    • 2001
  • Separated flows passed complex geometries are modeled by discrete vortex techniques. The flows are assumed to be rotational and inviscid, and a new techlnique is described to determine the stream functions for linear shear profiles. The geometries considered are the snow cornice and the backward-facing step, whose edges allow for the separation of the flow and reattachment downstream of the recirculation regions. A point vortex has been added to the flows in order to constrain the separation points to be located at the edges, while the conformal mappings have been modified in order to smooth the sharp edges and to let the separation points free to oscillate around the points of maximum curvature. Unsteadiness is imposed to the flow by perturbing the vortex location, either by displacing the vortex from the equilibrium, or by imposing a random perturbation with zero mean to the vortex in equilibrium. The trajectories of passive scalars continuously released upwind of the separation point and trapped by the recirculating bubble are numerically integrated, and concentration time series are calculated at fixed locations downwind of the reattachment points. This model proves to be capable of reproducing the trapping and intermittent release of scalars, in agreement with the simulation of the flow passed a snow cornice performed by a discrete multi-vortex model, as well as with direct numerical simulations of the flow passed a backward-facing step. The results of simulation indicate that for flows undergoing separation and reattachment the unsteadiness of the recirculating bubble is the main mechanism responsible for the intense large-scale concentration fluctuations downstream.

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High-frequency Reverberation Simulation of High-speed Moving Source in Range-independent Ocean Environment (거리독립 해양환경에서 고속이동 음원의 고주파 잔향음 신호모의)

  • Kim, Sunhyo;Lee, Wonbyoung;You, Seung-Ki;Choi, Jee Woong;Kim, Wooshik;Park, Joung Soo;Park, Kyoung Ju
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.104-115
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    • 2013
  • In a shallow water waveguide, reverberation signals and their Doppler effects form the primary limitation on sonar system performance. Therefore, in the reverberation-limited environment, it is necessary to estimate the reverberation level to be encountered under the conditions in which the sonar system is operated. In this paper, high-frequency reverberation model capable of simulating the reverberation signals received by a high-speed moving source in a range independent waveguide is suggested. In this model, eigenray information from the source to each boundary is calculated using the ray-based approach and the optimizing method for the launch angles. And the source receiving position changed by the moving source is found by a scattering path-finding algorithm, which considers the speed and direction of source and sound speed to find the path of source movement. The scattering effects from sea surface and bottom boundaries are considered by APL-UW scattering models. The model suggested in this paper is verified by a comparison to the measurements made in August 2010. Lastly, this model reflects well statistical properties of the reverberation signals.