• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.64-71
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• 2002

This research developed construction cost forecasting model using Building Construction Cost Index, time series analysis and Artificial Neural Networks. By this model, we could calculate the forecasted values of construction cost precisely and efficiently. And we also could find out that the standard deviation of forecasted values is 0.375 and it is a very exact result, so the standard deviation is just 0.33 percent of 112.28, the average of Building Construction Cost Index. And it show more exact forecasting result in comparison with Time Series Analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.1007-1017
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• 2009

Forecasting for air demand such as passengers and freight has been one of the main interests for air industries. This research has mainly focus on the comparison the performance between the univariate seasonal ARIMA models and the multivariate time series models. In this paper, we used real data to predict demand on international passenger and freight. And multivariate time series models are better than the univariate models based on the accuracy criteria.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.175-186
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• 2001

Though people frequently rely on intuition in managing activities, they rarely use it in developing effective decision-making support systems. In this report, we investigate the correlations between characteristics of cognition and emotion and judgmental time-series forecasting accuracy, and compare their strengths by using a self-supervised adaptive neural network. Through the experiments, we hope to help find a desirable atmosphere for decision-making. Our experiments showed that both cognition characteristics and emotion characteristics had correlations with the time-series forecasting accuracy, and that cognition characteristics had larger correlation than emotion characteristics. We also found that conceptual style had larger correlation than behavioral or analytical styles with the accuracy.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.800-807
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• 2017

The Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF) is an approach to forecast the behavior of time series based on similar pattern sequences. The innovation of PSF method is to convert the load time series into a label sequence by clustering technique in order to lighten computational burden. However, it brings about a new problem in determining the number of clusters and it is subject to insufficient similar days occasionally. In this paper we proposed an adaption of the PSF method, which introduces a new clustering index to determine the number of clusters and imposes a threshold to solve the problem caused by insufficient similar days. Our experiments showed that the proposed method reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) about 15%, compared to the PSF method.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.75-89
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the trend of container volume using the Seasonal Autoregressive Intergrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. To this end, this paper used monthly time-series data of the East Sea Rim from 2001 to 2019. As a result, the SARIMA(2,1,1)12 model was identified as the most suitable model, and the superiority of the SARIMA model was demonstrated by comparative analysis with the ARIMA model. In addition, to confirmed forecasting accuracy of SARIMA model, this paper compares the volume of predict container to the actual volume. According to the forecast for 24 months from 2020 to 2021, the volume of containaer increased from 60,100,000Ton in 2020 to 64,900,000Ton in 2021

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.20 no.44
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• pp.243-255
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• 1997

Forecasting the future values of an observed time series is an important problem in many areas, including economics, traffic engineering, production planning, sales forecasting, and stock control. The purpose of this paper is aimed to discover the more efficient forecasting model through the parameter estimation and residual analysis among the quantitative method such as Winters' exponential smoothing model, Box-Jenkins' model, and Kalman filtering model. The mean of the time series is assumed to be a linear combination of known functions. For a parameter estimation and residual analysis, Winters', Box-Jenkins' model use Statgrap and Timeslab software, and Kalman filtering utilizes Fortran language. Therefore, this paper can be used in real fields to obtain the most effective forecasting model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.2193-2196
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• 2008

In this study, the new methodology such as support vector machines neural networks model (SVM-NNM) using the statistical learning theory is introduced to forecast flood stage in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea. The SVM-NNM in hydrologic time series forecasting is relatively new, and it is more problematic in comparison with classification. And, the multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM) is introduced as the reference neural networks model to compare the performance of SVM-NNM. And, for the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training, cross validation, and testing data, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of the SVM-NNM and the MLP-NNM for the forecasting of the hydrologic time series in Nakdong river. Furthermore, we can suggest the new methodology to forecast the flood stage and construct the optimal forecasting system in Nakdong river, Republic of Korea.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.230-232
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• 2001

This paper presents a model for short-term load forecasting using multiple time-series. We made one-hour ahead load forecasting without classifying load data according to daily load patterns(e.g. weekday. weekend and holiday) To verify its effectiveness. the results are compared with those of neuro-fuzzy forecasting model(5). The results show that the proposed model has more accurate estimate in forecasting.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.4A no.3
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• pp.159-166
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• 2004

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York： New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.172-178
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• 2006

This paper presents a development of court auction information system using time series forecasting. The system forecast a highest bid price for claim analysis, and it is designed to offer an quota information by the bid price. For this realization, we implemented input interface of object data and web interface of information support. Input interface can be input, update and delete function and web interface is support some information of court auction object. We propose a forecasting method of a highest bid price for auto-claim analysis with real time information support and the results are verified the feasibility of the proposed method by experiment.