• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time series forecasting

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A Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Chestnut Prices (밤 가격(價格)의 시계열분석(時系列分析)과 예측(豫測)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Cho, Eung Hyouk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.73 no.1
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    • pp.70-75
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    • 1986
  • The secular trend and seasonal variation of chestnut prices have been analyzed, and the production and price for the next two decades (1985-2004) have been forecasted by the derived equation model. The results of the study can be summarized as follows; 1) The chestnut prices went up at the rate of 10.95% per annum during 1965-1972, but, due to excessive supply of chestnuts, went down at the rate of 7.25% during 1973-1984. 2) In a year, the prices were lowest at the harvesting season, especially on October, and highest on July. Such a seasonal fluctuations of chestnut prices tend to be even with the passage of time, but the range of fluctuation is still wide. 3) It was forecasted under certain premises that the annual chestnut production will be increased by 99,000 tons in 1992, but the amount will fall rapidly to about 23,000 tons in 2004. The prices will be similar to the present level or have slightly upward Tendency until 1992, but this will be rapidly raised thereafter.

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A Study on the Control System of Maximum Demand Power Using Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic (신경망과 퍼지논리를 이용한 최대수요전력 제어시스템에 관한연구)

  • 조성원
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.420-425
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    • 1999
  • The maximum demand controller is an electrical equipment installed at the consumer side of power system for monitoring the electrical energy consumed during every integrating period and preventing the target maximum demand (MD) being exceeded by disconnecting sheddable loads. By avoiding the peak loads and spreading the energy requirement the controller contributes to maximizing the utility factor of the generator systems. It results in not only saving the energy but also reducing the budget for constructing the natural base facilities by keeping thc number of generating plants ~ninimumT. he conventional MD controllers often bring about the large number of control actions during the every inteyating period and/or undesirable loaddisconnecting operations during the beginning stage of the integrating period. These make the users aviod the MD controllers. In this paper. fuzzy control technique is used to get around the disadvantages of the conventional MD control system. The proposed MD controller consists of the predictor module and the fuzzy MD control module. The proposed forecasting method uses the SOFM neural network model, differently from time series analysis, and thus it has inherent advantages of neural network such as parallel processing, generalization and robustness. The MD fuzzy controller determines the sensitivity of control action based on the time closed to the end of the integrating period and the urgency of the load interrupting action along the predicted demand reaching the target. The experimental results show that the proposed method has more accurate forecastinglcontrol performance than the previous methods.

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Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

Characteristics of Spectra of Daily Satellite Sea Surface Temperature Composites in the Seas around the Korean Peninsula (한반도 주변해역 일별 위성 해수면온도 합성장 스펙트럼 특성)

  • Woo, Hye-Jin;Park, Kyung-Ae;Lee, Joon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.632-645
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    • 2021
  • Satellite sea surface temperature (SST) composites provide important data for numerical forecasting models and for research on global warming and climate change. In this study, six types of representative SST composite database were collected from 2007 to 2018 and the characteristics of spatial structures of SSTs were analyzed in seas around the Korean Peninsula. The SST composite data were compared with time series of in-situ measurements from ocean meteorological buoys of the Korea Meteorological Administration by analyzing the maximum value of the errors and its occurrence time at each buoy station. High differences between the SST data and in-situ measurements were detected in the western coastal stations, in particular Deokjeokdo and Chilbaldo, with a dominant annual or semi-annual cycle. In Pohang buoy, a high SST difference was observed in the summer of 2013, when cold water appeared in the surface layer due to strong upwelling. As a result of spectrum analysis of the time series SST data, daily satellite SSTs showed similar spectral energy from in-situ measurements at periods longer than one month approximately. On the other hand, the difference of spectral energy between the satellite SSTs and in-situ temperature tended to magnify as the temporal frequency increased. This suggests a possibility that satellite SST composite data may not adequately express the temporal variability of SST in the near-coastal area. The fronts from satellite SST images revealed the differences among the SST databases in terms of spatial structure and magnitude of the oceanic fronts. The spatial scale expressed by the SST composite field was investigated through spatial spectral analysis. As a result, the high-resolution SST composite images expressed the spatial structures of mesoscale ocean phenomena better than other low-resolution SST images. Therefore, in order to express the actual mesoscale ocean phenomenon in more detail, it is necessary to develop more advanced techniques for producing the SST composites.

Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Estimation of city gas demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 도시가스의 수요함수 추정)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Euh, Seung-Seob;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.370-375
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the city gas demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the city gas demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's city gas consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as city gas price and forecasting the demand for city gas. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the city gas demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the city gas demand are estimated to be -0.522 and 0.874, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for city gas is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the city gas is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the city gas demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for city gas is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Rice Yield Estimation of South Korea from Year 2003-2016 Using Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder (SSAE 알고리즘을 통한 2003-2016년 남한 전역 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Ma, Jong Won;Lee, Kyungdo;Choi, Ki-Young;Heo, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_2
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    • pp.631-640
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    • 2017
  • The estimation of rice yield affects the income of farmers as well as the fields related to agriculture. Moreover, it has an important effect on the government's policy making including the control of supply demand and the price estimation. Thus, it is necessary to build the crop yield estimation model and from the past, many studies utilizing empirical statistical models or artificial neural network algorithms have been conducted through climatic and satellite data. Presently, scientists have achieved successful results with deep learning algorithms in the field of pattern recognition, computer vision, speech recognition, etc. Among deep learning algorithms, the SSAE (Stacked Sparse AutoEncoder) algorithm has been confirmed to be applicable in the field of forecasting through time series data and in this study, SSAE was utilized to estimate the rice yield in South Korea. The climatic and satellite data were used as the input variables and different types of input data were constructed according to the period of rice growth in South Korea. As a result, the combination of the satellite data from May to September and the climatic data using the 16 day average value showed the best performance with showing average annual %RMSE (percent Root Mean Square Error) and region %RMSE of 7.43% and 7.16% that the applicability of the SSAE algorithm could be proved in the field of rice yield estimation.

Analysis of Global Shipping Market Status and Forecasting the Container Freight Volume of Busan New port using Time-series Model (글로벌 해운시장 현황 분석 및 시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 신항 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • JO, Jun-Ho;Byon, Je-Seop;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

Evaluating the groundwater prediction using LSTM model (LSTM 모형을 이용한 지하수위 예측 평가)

  • Park, Changhui;Chung, Il-Moon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.273-283
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    • 2020
  • Quantitative forecasting of groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater variation and vulnerability is very important. To achieve this purpose, various time series analysis and machine learning techniques have been used. In this study, we developed a prediction model based on LSTM (Long short term memory), one of the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, for predicting the daily groundwater level of 11 groundwater wells in Hankyung-myeon, Jeju Island. In general, the groundwater level in Jeju Island is highly autocorrelated with tides and reflected the effects of precipitation. In order to construct an input and output variables based on the characteristics of addressing data, the precipitation data of the corresponding period was added to the groundwater level data. The LSTM neural network was trained using the initial 365-day data showing the four seasons and the remaining data were used for verification to evaluate the fitness of the predictive model. The model was developed using Keras, a Python-based deep learning framework, and the NVIDIA CUDA architecture was implemented to enhance the learning speed. As a result of learning and verifying the groundwater level variation using the LSTM neural network, the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.98 on average, indicating that the predictive model developed was very accurate.

Power Consumption Prediction Scheme Based on Deep Learning for Powerline Communication Systems (전력선통신 시스템을 위한 딥 러닝 기반 전력량 예측 기법)

  • Lee, Dong Gu;Kim, Soo Hyun;Jung, Ho Chul;Sun, Young Ghyu;Sim, Issac;Hwang, Yu Min;Kim, Jin Young
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.822-828
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    • 2018
  • Recently, energy issues such as massive blackout due to increase in power consumption have been emerged, and it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction of power consumption as a solution for these problems. In this study, we investigate the difference between the actual power consumption and the predicted power consumption through the deep learning- based power consumption forecasting experiment, and the possibility of adjusting the power reserve ratio. In this paper, the prediction of the power consumption based on the deep learning can be used as a basis to reduce the power reserve ratio so as not to excessively produce extra power. The deep learning method used in this paper uses a learning model of long-short-term-memory (LSTM) structure that processes time series data. In the computer simulation, the generated power consumption data was learned, and the power consumption was predicted based on the learned model. We calculate the error between the actual and predicted power consumption amount, resulting in an error rate of 21.37%. Considering the recent power reserve ratio of 45.9%, it is possible to reduce the reserve ratio by 20% when applying the power consumption prediction algorithm proposed in this study.