• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time prediction

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Optimal Interval Censoring Design for Reliability Prediction of Electronic Packages (전자패키지 신뢰성 예측을 위한 최적 구간중도절단 시험 설계)

  • Kwon, Daeil;Shin, Insun
    • Journal of the Microelectronics and Packaging Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.1-4
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    • 2015
  • Qualification includes all activities to demonstrate that a product meets and exceeds the reliability goals. Manufacturers need to spend time and resources for the qualification processes under the pressure of reducing time to market, as well as offering a competitive price. Failure to qualify a product could result in economic loss such as warranty and recall claims and the manufacturer could lose the reputation in the market. In order to provide valid and reliable qualification results, manufacturers are required to make extra effort based on the operational and environmental characteristics of the product. This paper discusses optimal interval censoring design for reliability prediction of electronic packages under limited time and resources. This design should provide more accurate assessment of package capability and thus deliver better reliability prediction.

Effect of Carbonation Threshold Depth on the Initiation Time of Corrosion at the Concrete Durability Design (콘크리트의 내구성 설계시 탄산화 임계깊이가 철근부식 개시시기에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Jae-Won;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Song, Hun;Lee, Han-Seung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.229-230
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    • 2010
  • The Carbonation, one of the main deterioration factors of concrete, reduces capacity of members with providing rebar corrosion environment. Consequently it suggested standards of all countries of world, carbonation depth prediction equation of respective researchers and time to rebar corrosion initiation. As a result of carbonation depth prediction equation calculation, difference of time to rebar corrosion initiation is 149 years and difference of carbonation depth prediction equation is 162 years when water cement ratio is 50%. So a study on rebar corrosion with carbonation depth will need existing reliable data and verifications by experiment.

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ISM에 의한 발전용 고온 배관재료 2.25Cr1Mo강의 고온 크리프 수명 예측에 관한 연구

  • Lee, Sang-Guk;Jeong, Min-Hwa;O, Se-Gyu;Song, Jeong-Geun
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2 s.28
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 1998
  • In this report for the assessment of creep properties of high-temperature tube materials in power plants, the long-time($10^4$~105h) creep life prediction by ISM for 2.25Cr1Mo steel was studied. It was clarified experimentally and quantitatively that the newly developed long-time creep life prediction equation was very coincident with the actual experimental data with high confidence, and the model was $t_r=\alpha\varepsilon_0^{\beta}\sigma^{-1}$.

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DNA Coding Method for Time Series Prediction (시계열 예측을 위한 DNA 코딩 방법)

  • 이기열;선상준;이동욱;심귀보
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.280-280
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose a method of constructing equation using bio-inspired emergent and evolutionary concepts. This method is algorithm that is based on the characteristics of the biological DNA and growth of plants. Here is. we propose a constructing method to make a DNA coding method for production rule of L-system. L-system is based on so-called the parallel rewriting mechanism. The DNA coding method has no limitation in expressing the production rule of L-system. Evolutionary algorithms motivated by Darwinian natural selection are population based searching methods and the high performance of which is highly dependent on the representation of solution space. In order to verify the effectiveness of our scheme, we apply it to one step ahead prediction of Mackey-Glass time series.

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Time-Frequency Analysis of Electrohysterogram for Classification of Term and Preterm Birth

  • Ryu, Jiwoo;Park, Cheolsoo
    • IEIE Transactions on Smart Processing and Computing
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, a novel method for the classification of term and preterm birth is proposed based on time-frequency analysis of electrohysterogram (EHG) using multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD). EHG is a promising study for preterm birth prediction, because it is low-cost and accurate compared to other preterm birth prediction methods, such as tocodynamometry (TOCO). Previous studies on preterm birth prediction applied prefilterings based on Fourier analysis of an EHG, followed by feature extraction and classification, even though Fourier analysis is suboptimal to biomedical signals, such as EHG, because of its nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Therefore, the proposed method applies prefiltering based on MEMD instead of Fourier-based prefilters before extracting the sample entropy feature and classifying the term and preterm birth groups. For the evaluation, the Physionet term-preterm EHG database was used where the proposed method and Fourier prefiltering-based method were adopted for comparative study. The result showed that the area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was increased by 0.0351 when MEMD was used instead of the Fourier-based prefilter.

Estimation of the Strength Development of the Super Retarding Concrete Incorporating Fly Ash and Blast Furnace Slag (플라이애시와 고로슬래그를 조합 사용한 초지연 콘크리트의 강도증진)

  • Han, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, the estimation of super retarding concrete incorporating mineral admixtures at the same time including fly ash(FA), blast furnace slag(BS) are studied based on maturity method. The setting time was retarded, as super retarding agent contents increase and curing temperature decreases. In addition, apparent activation energy by Arrhenius function was ranged from $24\sim35$ KJ/mol with slightly difference along with mixture proportion. This value is smaller than existing value $30\sim50$ KJ/mol. Based on strength development estimation. it exhibited comparable relativity between prediction value and measurement value. Therefore, this study provided effective strength development prediction value with super retarding agent contents and mineral admixture combination. Strength development prediction equation provided herein is possibly valid for estimating accurate strength development of the super retarding concrete at the job site.

Flashover Prediction of Polymeric Insulators Using PD Signal Time-Frequency Analysis and BPA Neural Network Technique

  • Narayanan, V. Jayaprakash;Karthik, B.;Chandrasekar, S.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.1375-1384
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    • 2014
  • Flashover of power transmission line insulators is a major threat to the reliable operation of power system. This paper deals with the flashover prediction of polymeric insulators used in power transmission line applications using the novel condition monitoring technique developed by PD signal time-frequency map and neural network technique. Laboratory experiments on polymeric insulators were carried out as per IEC 60507 under AC voltage, at different humidity and contamination levels using NaCl as a contaminant. Partial discharge signals were acquired using advanced ultra wide band detection system. Salient features from the Time-Frequency map and PRPD pattern at different pollution levels were extracted. The flashover prediction of polymeric insulators was automated using artificial neural network (ANN) with back propagation algorithm (BPA). From the results, it can be speculated that PD signal feature extraction along with back propagation classification is a well suited technique to predict flashover of polymeric insulators.

Machine Learning Based Architecture and Urban Data Analysis - Construction of Floating Population Model Using Deep Learning - (머신러닝을 통한 건축 도시 데이터 분석의 기초적 연구 - 딥러닝을 이용한 유동인구 모델 구축 -)

  • Shin, Dong-Youn
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we construct a prototype model for city data prediction by using time series data of floating population, and use machine learning to analyze urban data of complex structure. A correlation prediction model was constructed using three of the 10 data (total flow population, male flow population, and Monday flow population), and the result was compared with the actual data. The results of the accuracy were evaluated. The results of this study show that the predicted model of the floating population predicts the correlation between the predicted floating population and the current state of commerce. It is expected that it will help efficient and objective design in the planning stages of architecture, landscape, and urban areas such as tree environment design and layout of trails. Also, it is expected that the dynamic population prediction using multivariate time series data and collected location data will be able to perform integrated simulation with time series data of various fields.

A Study on Improving the Precision of Quantitative Prediction of Cold Forging Die Life Cycle Through Real Time Forging Load Measurement (실시간 성형하중 계측을 통한 냉간단조 금형수명 정량예측 정밀도 향상 연구)

  • Seo, Y.H.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.172-178
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    • 2021
  • The cold forging process induces material deformation in an enclosed space, generating a very high forging load. Therefore, it is mainly designed as a multi-stage process, and fatigue failure occurs in forging die due to cyclic load. Studies have been conducted previously to quantitatively predict the fatigue limit of cold forging dies, however, there was a limit to field application due to the large error range and the need for expert intervention. To solve this problem, we conducted a study on the introduction of a real-time forging load measurement technology and an automated system for quantitative prediction of die life cycle. As a result, it was possible to reduce the error range of the quantitative prediction of die life cycle to within ±7%, and it became possible to use the die life cycle calculation algorithm into an automated system.

LSTM-based Sales Forecasting Model

  • Hong, Jun-Ki
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1232-1245
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    • 2021
  • In this study, prediction of product sales as they relate to changes in temperature is proposed. This model uses long short-term memory (LSTM), which has shown excellent performance for time series predictions. For verification of the proposed sales prediction model, the sales of short pants, flip-flop sandals, and winter outerwear are predicted based on changes in temperature and time series sales data for clothing products collected from 2015 to 2019 (a total of 1,865 days). The sales predictions using the proposed model show increases in the sale of shorts and flip-flops as the temperature rises (a pattern similar to actual sales), while the sale of winter outerwear increases as the temperature decreases.