• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time lag Analysis

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A Study on the Distributed Lag Model by Bayesian Decision Making Method (분포시차모형의 Bayesian 의사결정법에 관한 연구)

  • 이필령
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1985
  • Recently the distributed lag models for time series data have been used in several quantitative analyses. But the analyses of time series which have the serial correlations in error terms and the lagged values of dependent variables violate the hypothesis of OLS method. This paper suggests that the approach technique of distributed lay model with serial correlation should be applied by the Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters. For the application of distributed lag model by Bayesian analysis, the data for monthly consumption expenditure per household by items of commodities from 1972 to 1981 are used in order to estimate the lagged coefficient of processed food and the regression coefficient of the food and beverage.

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Dual-phase-lag model on microstretch thermoelastic medium with diffusion under the influence of gravity and laser pulse

  • Othman, Mohamed I.A.;Abd-Elaziz, Elsayed M.;Mohamed, Ibrahim E.A.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.75 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2020
  • This investigation is to study the effect of gravitational field and diffusion on a microstretch thermoelastic medium heating by a non-Gaussian laser beam. The problem was studied in the context of the dual-phase-lag model. The normal mode analysis is used to solve the problem to obtain the exact expressions for the non-dimensional displacement components, the micro-rotation, the stresses, and the temperature distribution. The effect of time parameter, heat flux parameter and gravity response of three theories of thermoelasticity i.e. dual-phase-lag model (DPL), Lord and Shulman theory (L-S) and coupled theory (CT) on these quantities have been depicted graphically for a particular model.

CSR Impact on the Firm Market Value: Evidence from Tour and Travel Companies Listed on Chinese Stock Markets

  • LEE, Jung Wan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2020
  • The study examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activity on the firm market value, in particular, market capitalization of tour operators listed on Chinese stock markets. This study employs panel data analysis methods to examine endogeneity concerns in observational data. The balanced panel data includes a total of 1,296 observations with 27 cross-sections of tour operators listed on Chinese stock markets and with 48 time-specific periods from March 2006 to December 2017. The results indicate that CSR activity has a negative impact on the market value of the firm for the concurrent period, but from one-period time lag and afterwards CSR activity has a strong positive impact on the market value and sustains its positive impact on the market value even for a two-period time lag. The findings suggest that the economic effect of CSR activity on the firm market value tends to take some degree of lagged effects to be fully showcased in the market capitalization of tour operators and travel companies listed on Chinese stock markets. The findings suggest that, though CSR activity may carry some financial risk for an immediate short-term, tour operators must put a lot of time and effort into making CSR actions effective.

An Analysis for the Adjustment Process of Market Variations by the Formulation of Time tag Structure (시차구조의 설정에 따른 시장변동의 조정과정 분석)

  • 김태호;이청림
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.87-100
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    • 2003
  • Most of statistical data are generated by a set of dynamic, stochastic, and simultaneous relations. An important question is how to specify statistical models so that they are consistent with the dynamic feature of those data. A general hypothesis is that the lagged effect of a change in an explanatory variable is not felt all at once at a single point in time, but The impact is distributed over a number of future points in time. In other words, current control variables are determined by a function that can be reduced to a distributed lag function of past observations. It is possible to explain the relationship between variables in different points of time and to estimate the long-run impacts of a change in a variable on another if time lag series of explanatory variables are incorporated in the model specification. In this study, distributed lag structure is applied to the domestic stock market model to capture the dynamic response of the market by exogenous shocks. The Domestic market is found more responsive to the changes in foreign market factors both in the short and the long run.

Hydrologic Analysis for Determining the Lag Times of GIUH (GIUH의 지체시간 산정을 위한 수문학적 해석)

  • Lee, Hyeok-Gyu;Yun, Seok-Yeong;Kim, Jae-Han
    • Water for future
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.155-169
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    • 1995
  • Three types of methods are used to determine the lag time which is an important parameter in estimating the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) and their results are anlyzed hydrologically in this study. The first method uses only the average velocity and second one uses the combination of the stream length and the average velocity. The third method employs the relationship between watershed area and lag time obtained from the empirical coefficients of Boyd and Singh. To verify the applicabilities of such methods to the actual river basin, the obtained lag times were tested by using the observed data. The results showed that the first method was applicable to small watershed area but not to larger area. The several other hydrologic characteristics beside the watershed area should be considered for the third method because the accuracy of the lag time was not good. Finally, the second method gave the most similar simulation results and the best agreements to the observed runoff data than any other method.

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Analysis of Asian Dust Transportation Time and Wind Farm in Baengnyeongdo Island and the Metropolitan Area (백령도와 수도권의 황사 수송 시간과 바람장 분석)

  • Jo, Won Gi;Kang, Dong-hwan;Park, Gyeong-Deok;Yang, Minjune
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.525-533
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    • 2022
  • Baengnyeongdo, located within the Asian dust stream, is an ideal place to analyze Asian dust moving into the West Sea due to its low emission of artificial pollutants. Baengnyeongdo is being used to analyze the vertical distribution of dust from the lower atmosphere to the upper layer through remote observation. This study compared the ground concentration of dust between Baengnyeongdo and the metropolitan area, estimated the lag time of transport of Asian dust from Baengnyeongdo to the metropolitan area, and examined the homogeneity of upper winds using the rawinsonde method. The results showed that the cross correlation coefficient was higher and the lag time was shorter for each observation station when the distance from Baengnyeongdo was shorter. The upper wind at Baengnyeongdo is dominated by the west/northwest wind. It is the basis for the correlation of dust concentration between Baengnyeongdo and the metropolitan area located to the east. In the future, upper wind data and Asian dust concentration data over the West Sea and Baengnyeongdo are expected to contribute to research related to the movement and prediction of Asian dust and preparation for Asian dust in the metropolitan area.

Numerical Analysis of Nonlinear Combustion Instability Using Pressure-Sensitive Time Lag Hypothesis (시간지연 모델을 이용한 비선형 연소불안정 해석기법 연구)

  • Park Tae-Seon;Kim Seong-Ku
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.30 no.7 s.250
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    • pp.671-681
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    • 2006
  • This study focuses on the development of numerical procedure to analyze the nonlinear combustion instabilities in liquid rocket engine. Nonlinear behaviors of acoustic instabilities are characterized by the existence of limit cycle in linearly unstable engines and nonlinear or triggering instability in linearly stable engines. To discretize convective fluxes with high accuracy and robustness, approximated Riemann solver based on characteristics and Euler-characteristic boundary conditions are employed. The present procedure predicts well the transition processes from initial harmonic pressure disturbance to N-like steep-fronted shock wave in a resonant pipe. Longitudinal pressure oscillations within the SSME(Space Shuttle Main Engine) engine have been analyzed using the pressure-sensitive time lag model to account for unsteady combustion response. It is observed that the pressure oscillations reach a limit cycle which is independent of the characteristics of the initial disturbances and depends only on combustion parameters and operating conditions.

A Study on the Influence of Self-driving Patents on the Firm Performance in the Automotive Parts Industry (자율주행 관련 특허의 자동차 부품 산업 내 기업 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 분석)

  • Cho, Hyunseok;Kwak, Chanhee;Choi, HanByeol Stella;Lee, Minhyung;Lee, Heeseok
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.57-74
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    • 2019
  • Self-driving technology is changing the paradigm of automotive industry. Since it is imperative to converge this emerging technology with ICT and there is a time lag between securing this emerging technology and occurrence of firm performance, it is difficult to make decisions on technology development. This study investigates patent indicators to understand the impact of self-driving technology on performance of automotive parts companies. We analyze 611 of self-driving technology patents from 2000 to 2016 and the financial performance of 270 small and medium businesses that register the corresponding patents with consideration of up to four years of time lag. Our analysis results show that patents related to self-driving has a positive impact on asset growth of 2 years and sales growth of 3 years in terms of time lag. This study contributes to the literature by analyzing the impact of technology development on the firm performance in case of convergence of the automotive and ICT industries. Additionally, this study provides a role of patent in knowledge management planning through technology development as a practical implication.

Transition Structure to Changes in Efficiency and Pattern of Technological Progress by Industries through Development of Patent Mapping Model (산업별 기술발전의 효율 및 형태변동에 대한 추이구조)

  • Park, Joon-Ho;Kwon, Cheol-Shin
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.281-290
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    • 2006
  • The main objective of this study is to analyze the structure of efficiency of R&D input variables and the attributes of patent information as output of R&D activities in the major manufacturing industries (electric & electronics, machinery, chemical, textile) from the mid-1970s to the late-1990s by the development of "mapping technique". To attain this objective we first have examined the attribute of time-lag which depends on the absolute, and the cumulative values between input and output. And on the basis of this result, we have made an analysis on the impact to extract the main variables affecting patent by industries. Moreover, according to time trend of the impact variables, we have analyzed the structure of R&D efficiency, and of technological progress which will be changed with time by patent information. It has been aimed at constructing technological progress patterns in the Korea industry.

Analysis on Actuation Mechanism of Micro Actuator by Bubble Formation (기포형성에 의한 마이크로 액추에이터의 구동기구 해석)

  • 오시덕;승삼선;곽호영
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.418-426
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    • 1995
  • A bubble-powered microactuator is designed conceptually. And the actuation mechanism due to bubble growth and collapse is studied numerically and analytically. In this analysis, it is estimated that the time lag for bubble formation on micro line heater, the duration of the bubble growth and collapse and the pressure change in actuator due to the bubble evolution. Based on these calculations, the actuator control scheme is visualized. This actuator may be applicable to the system which needs to pump liquid correctly and regularly.