• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.335-348
• /
• 2009

Fuzzy regression is used as a complement or an alternative to represent the relation between variables among the forecasting models especially when the data is insufficient to evaluate the relation. Such phenomenon often occurs in seasonal time series data which require large amount of data to describe the underlying pattern. Semiparametric model is useful tool in the case where domain knowledge exists about the function to be estimated or emphasis is put onto understandability of the model. In this paper we propose fuzzy semiparametric support vector regression so that it can provide good performance on forecasting of the seasonal time series by incorporating into fuzzy support vector regression the basis functions which indicate the seasonal variation of time series. In order to indicate the performance of this method, we present two examples of predicting the seasonal time series. Experimental results show that the proposed method is very attractive for the seasonal time series in fuzzy environments.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2004.04a
• /
• pp.91-101
• /
• 2004

The turbulent flow is of fundamental interest because the conservation equations for thermodynamics, mass and momentum are linked together. This turbulent flow consists of some coherent time- and space-organized vortical structures. Research has already shown that some dynamic systems and experimental models still cannot provide a good nonlinear analysis of turbulent time series. In the real turbulent flow, very complicated nonlinear behaviors, which are affected by many vague factors are present. In this paper, a kernel-based machine for fuzzy nonlinear regression analysis is proposed to predict the nonlinear time series of turbulent flows. In order to show the practicality and usefulness of this model, we present an example of predicting the near-wall turbulence time series as a verifiable model and compare with fuzzy piecewise regression. The results of practical applications show that the proposed method is appropriate and appears to be useful in nonlinear analysis and in fuzzy environments to predict the turbulence time series.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2000.11a
• /
• pp.13-15
• /
• 2000

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic properties of the regression quantile estimators in the nonlinear time series regression model. For the sinusodial model which frequently appears fer a time series analysis, we study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of regression quantile ostinators.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.24 no.1 s.33
• /
• pp.29-36
• /
• 1991

A multiple regression analysis using ordinary least square (OLS) is frequently used for the projection of health expenditure as well as for the identification of factors affecting health care costs. Data for the analysis often have mixed characteristics of time series and cross section. Parameters as a result of OLS estimation, in this case, are no longer the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUE) because the data do not satisfy basic assumptions of regression analysis. The study theoretically examined statistical problems induced when OLS estimation was applied with the time series cross section data. Then both the OLS regression and time series cross section regression (TSCS regression) were applied to the same empirical da. Finally, the difference in parameters between the two estimations were explained through residual analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.187-199
• /
• 2000

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic properties of the least absolute deviation estimators in the nonlinear time series regression model. For the sinusodial model which frequently appears in a time series analysis, we study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of least absolute deviation estimators. And using the derived limiting distributions we show that the least absolute deviation estimators is more efficient than the least squared estimators when the error distribution of the model has heavy tails.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.321-332
• /
• 2013

Because of the continuous low birthrates, the number of the elementary students will decrease by 17% in 2020 compared to 2011. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of elementary school teachers until 2020. We used the data in education statistical year books from 1970 to 2010. We used the time-series regression model, time series grouped regression model and exponential smoothing model to predict the number of teachers for the next ten years. Consequently time-series grouped regression model is a better model for forecasting the number of elementary school teachers than other models.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.19-25
• /
• 2018

With the development of IT technology, various services such as artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles are being introduced, and many changes are taking place in our lives. However, if secure security is not provided, it will cause many risks, so the information security becomes more important. In this paper, we analyzed the research trends of main themes of information security over time. In order to conduct the research, 'Information Security' was searched in the Web of Science database. Using the abstracts of theses published from 1991 to 2016, we derived main research topics through topic modeling and time series regression analysis. The topic modeling results showed that the research topics were Information technology, system access, attack, threat, risk management, network type, security management, security awareness, certification level, information protection organization, security policy, access control, personal information, security investment, computing environment, investment cost, system structure, authentication method, user behavior, encryption. The time series regression results indicated that all the topics were hot topics.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.22 no.5
• /
• pp.415-434
• /
• 2015

In this paper we overview the literature on common features analysis of economic time series. Starting from the seminal contributions by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993), we present and discuss the various notions that have been proposed to detect and model common cyclical features in macroeconometrics. In particular, we analyze in details the link between common cyclical features and the reduced-rank regression model. We also illustrate similarities and differences between the common features methodology and other popular types of multivariate time series modelling. Finally, we discuss some recent developments in this area, such as the implications of common features for univariate time series models and the analysis of common autocorrelation in medium-large dimensional systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
• /
• 2010.04a
• /
• pp.402-408
• /
• 2010

Forecasting have qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative one analyze macro-economic factors such as the rate of exchange, oil price, interest rate and also predict the micro-economic factors such as sales and demands. Applying various statistical methods depends on the type of data. when data has seasonality and trend, Time Series analysis is proper but when it has casual relation, Regression analysis is good for this. Time Series and Regression can be used together. This study investigate artificial neural networks which is predictive technique for casual relation and try to compare the accuracy of forecasting between regression analysis and artificial neural network.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• v.54 no.4
• /
• pp.611-622
• /
• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.