• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.123-133
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• 1992

This study was conducted to clarify progressed changes of plant types and the effects of the physiological and ecological components on improving ideotype of winter wheat. 12 wheat varieties were planted at the experimental farm of Wheat and Barley Research Institute in Suwon in 1990. As results of intensive wheat breeding for early maturity since 1959, heading, flowering and maturing dates have been shortened by 17, 15 and 14 dagys, respectively. The shortened days from sowing to heading and from heading to flowering contributed to the early maturity to improved. Physiological factors associated with heading time of wheat could be reprsented by growth habit, photoperiod responses, earliness in narrow sense and winter hardiness. For improving an early maturity of winter wheat, it would desired to maintain some degree of winter habit(III-IV), and recombination of more insensitivity to short day length and more shortened earliness in narrow sense than that of Saemil and Chugoku 81, and higher degree of winter hardiness. For improving the early maturity the more effective way must be of shortened days from sowing to heading, and days from flowering to maturity than days from heading to flowering. Ideotype of wheat will be desired to recombine two semi-dwarf genes with erect plant type being about 70-80cm, less stem elongation by late spring, long spike and many grains per spikelet. Average spike weight ratio was about 45-49% in high-yielding varieties, stem fresh weight was lighter, but spike fresh weight was heavier in new one while leaf fresh weight was similar to each other during the maturing periods. Average spike dry weight ratio was higher about 40～48%, and stem and leaf blade dry weights were lower in the newly bred varieties. Stem dry weight was heavier than spike or leaf dry weight in the old varieties of Yungkwang, Jangwang and Jinkwang. Leaf area index for the varieties showed normal distribution curve as the maximum point in booting stage. The maximum point of this curve come in early maturing wheat, and late in old one. The maximum points of LAI were 6.4～6.8 in the high-yielding varieties. Totals of LAI in each period investigated of old one were higher than those of newly bred being 24.6～28.8. Chlorophyll content of the high-yielding varieties of Chokwang, Geurumil and Saemil as higher than that of the old varieties Jangkwang, Jinkwang, Wonkwang and Sinkwang from regrowing period to April 21. after then slightly and even after heading. Net assimilation rate (NAR) was higher in high-yielding varieties with good plant type, and lower in old ones. Grain yield of the newly released varieties increased rapidly but slowly in the old ones. Change in water content of grain at the growing stage in newly bred was lower than that of the old bred. Diminishing rate of water content of grain in establishment per day was 1.2% average that of the old varieties including Yungkwang was 1.5%, and those of the newly bred including Chokwang were 0.9～1.1%. Chokwang, Naemil, and Saemil were the highest-yielding varieties of the Korean cultivars. Yields were increased by spikes per m$^2$, grain weight for the varieties bred in Suwon, and by spikes per m$^2$ for the varieties bred in Milyang.

• The Journal of Korean Medicine
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.40-57
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• 1997

The Background and Purpose It is done the study on the public health care of oriental medicine and improvement of its system recently, I think that these effect a good health care for a people through the public health care of oriental medicine. Since Woosuk university and Chonju-Wansan health center had taken upon the oriental medicine service in the health center in 1995, we have public favor from the local population. So in other to a study on the clinical statistics of oriental medicine service in the health center, I investigated general character, style of diseases, effect of treatments and the like for a paitents received oriental medicine treatments in there. Objective and Methods This study researched into clinical statistics for paitents received oriental medicine treatments in the Chonju-Wansan health center during one year period from January 4 1996 to December 26 1996. The number of object was 238 case of 234 persons. Results and Conclusions Analyzing these 234 persons, the proportion of males to females was 1 to 6.8. As for the distribution of age, the ages of 61 to 70 occupied 34.62 per cent in the ages of 51 to 90 occupied 88.89 per cent in the whole paitons. Therefor female was very highly more than male and paitents were for the most part, old ages(51years old and over). Musculoskeletal system and connective tissue disease of 238 case occupied 82.77 per cent. were the greatest proportion. At the duration of disease, 1 year to 5 years occupied 32.35 per cent, was the highest The grade Ⅲ was the most of the sign of paitents at first visit, it occupied 55.88 per cent. The good(++) and over effect of treatments occupied 62.18 per cent, the fair(+) and over effect of treatments occupied 78.99 per cent. As for the duration of treatment, the case of 2 times to 5 times visit occupied 34.03 per cent, was the highest. And the case of 2 times to 10 times visit was 4 times as good effect as the case of only one visit. By medication of treatment, O-Juk-San(五積散) occupied 32.21 per cent, was the greatest proportion, and Pal-Mj-Hoan(八味丸) occupied the second greatest proportion. Therefor the most of paitents had the chronic diseases and was diagnosed Sin-Yang-He(腎陽虛). The average 22.58 persons received acupuctural treatment a day, the average 0.58 persons received the moxibustion a day, the average 2.28 persons received venesection (bloodletting) a day. And others treatment performed physical therapy and the like. The case received treatment of the oriental and western medicine at the same time. marked 21 persons among 30 persons and had a good effect by 70 per cent. The average 26.95 persons received treatment of oriental medicine a day, the average 3.9 persons received the first medical examination a day.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.671-682
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• 1996

Background : Endobronchial tuberculosis is definded as tuberculous infection of the tracheobronchial tree with microbiological and histopathological evidence. Endobronchial tuberculosis has clinical significance due to its sequela of cicatrical stenosis which causes atelectasis, dyspnea and secondary pneumonia and may mimic bronchial asthma and pulmanary malignancy. Method : The authors carried out, retrospectively, a clinical study on 201 patients confirmed with endobronchial tuberculosis who visited the Department of Pulmonary Medicine at Hangyang University Hospital from January 1990 10 April 1996. The following results were obtained. Results: 1) Total 201 parients(l9.5%) were confirmed as endobronchial tuberculosis among 1031 patients who had been undergone flexible bronchofiberscopic examination. The number of male patients were 55 and that of female patients were 146. and the male to female ratio was 1 : 2.7. 2) The age distribution were as follows: there were 61(30.3%) cases in the third decade, 40 cases(19.9%) in the fourth decade, 27 cases(13.4%) in the sixth decade, 21 cases(10.4%) in the fifth decade, 19 cases(9.5%) in the age group between 15 and 19 years, 19 cases(9.5%) in the seventh decade, and 14 cases(7.0%) over 70 years, in decreasing order. 3) The most common symptom, in 192 cases, was cough 74.5%, followed by sputum 55.2%, dyspnea 28.6%, chest discomfort 19.8%, fever 17.2%, hemoptysis 11.5%, in decreasing order, and localized wheezing was heard in 15.6%. 4) In chest X-ray of 189 cases, consolidation was the most frequent finding in 67.7%, followed by collapse 43.9%. cavitary lesion 11.6%, pleural effusion 7.4%, in decreasing order, and there was no abnormal findings in 3.2%. 5) In the 76 pulmanary function tests, a normal pattern was found in 44.7%, restrictive pattern in 39.5 %, obstructive pattern in 11.8%, and combined pattern in 3.9%. 6) Among total 201 patients, bronchoscopy showed caseous pseudomembrane in 70 cases(34.8%), mucosal erythema and edema in 54 cases(26.9%), hyperplastic lesion in 52 cases(25.9%), fibrous s.enosis in 22 cases(10.9%), and erosion or ulcer in 3 cases(1.5%). 7) In total 201 cases, bronchial washing AFB stain was positive in 103 cases(51.2%), bronchial washing culture for tuberculous bacilli in 55 cases(27.4%). In the 99 bronchoscopic biopsies, AFB slain positive in 36.4%. granuloma without AFB stain positive in 13.1%, chronic inflammation only in 36.4%. and non diagnostic biopsy finding in 14.1%. Conclusions : Young female patients, whose cough resistant to genenal antitussive agents, should be evaluated for endobronchial tuberculosis, even with clear chest roentgenogram and negative sputum AFB stain. Furthermore, we would like to emphasize that the bronchoscopic approach is a substantially useful means of making a differential diagnosis of atelectasis in older patients of cancer age. At this time we have to make a standard endoscopic classification of endobronchial tuberculosis, and well designed prospective studies are required to elucidate the effect of combination therapy using antituberculous chemotherapy with steroids on bronchial stenosis in patients with endobronchial tuberculosis.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.171-178
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• 2006

[ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: To determine the efficacy and safety of concurrent chemotherapy and radiation therapy with high-dose-rate brachytherapy for cervical cancer. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: From January 2001 to December 2002, 30 patients with cervical cancer were treated with concurrent chemotherapy (cisplatin and 5-FU) and definitive radiation therapy. The median age was 58 (range $34{\sim}74$) year old. The pathology of the biopsy sections was squamous cell carcinoma in 29 patients and one was adenocarcinoma. The distribution to FIGO staging system was as follows: stage IB, 7 (23%); IIA, 3 (10%); IIB, 12 (40%); IIIA, 3 (10%); IIIB, 5 (17%). All patients received pelvic external beam irradiation (EBRT) to a total dose of $45{\sim}50.4\;Gy$ (median: 50.4 Gy) over $5{\sim}5.5$ weeks. Ir-192 HDR intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT) was given after a total dose of 41.4 Gy. HDR-ICBT was performed twice a week, with a fraction point A dose of 4 Gy and median dose to point A was 28 Gy (range: $16{\sim}32\;Gy$) in 7 fractions. The median cumulative biologic effective dose (BED) at point A (EBRT+ICBT) was $88\;Gy_{10}$ (range: $77{\sim}94\;Gy_{10}$). The median cumulative BED at ICRU 38 reference point (EBRT+ICBT) was $131\;Gy_3$ (range: $122{\sim}140\;Gy_3$) at point A, $109\;Gy_3$ (range: $88{\sim}125\;Gy_3$) at the rectum and $111\;Gy_3$ (range: $91{\sim}123\;Gy_3$) at the urinary bladder. Cisplatin ($60\;mg/m^2$) and 5-FU ($1,000\;mg/m^2$) was administered intravenously at 3 weeks interval from the first day of radiation for median 5 (range: $2{\sim}6$) cycles. The assessment was performed at 1 month after completion of radiation therapy by clinical examination and CT scan. The median follow-up time was 36 months (range: $8{\sim}50$ months). $\underline{: The complete response rate after concurrent chemoradiation therapy was 93.3%. The 3-yr actuarial pelvic control rate was 87% and 3-yr actuarial overall survival and disease-free survival rate was 93% and 87%, respectively. The local failure rate was 13% and distant metastatic rate was 3.3%. The crude rate of minor hematologic complications (RTOG grade 1-2) occurred in 3 patients (10%) and one patient had suffered from severe leukopenia (RTOG grade 4) during concurrent treatment. Acute minor enterocolitis (RTOG grade 1-2) occurred in 11 patients (37%) and one patient (3%) was suffered from colon perforation during radiation therapy. Late colitis of RTOG grade 1 occurred in 5 patients (15%). Acute cystitis of RTOG grade 1 occurred in 12 patients (40%) and late cystitis of RTOG grade 2 occurred in one patient (3%). No treatment related death was seen. $\underline{Conclusion}$: The results of this study suggest that the concurrent chemoradiation therapy with HDR brachytherapy could be accepted as an effective and safe treatment for cervical cancer.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.204-212
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• 2008

Purpose: This study was performed to evaluate the disease-free survival and risk factors of recurrence in early breast cancer patients who have undergone breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy. Materials and Methods: From March 1997 to December 2002, 77 breast cancer patients who underwent breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy were reviewed retrospectively. The median follow-up time was 58.4 months (range $43.8{\sim}129.4$ months) and the mean subject age was 41 years. The frequency distribution of the different T stages, based on the tumor characteristics was 38 (49.3%) for T1, 28 (36.3%) for T2, 3 for T3, 7 for T is and 1 for an unidentified sized tumor. In addition, 52 patients (67.5%) did not have axillary lymph metastasis, whereas 14 patients (18.1%) had $1{\sim}3$ lymph node metastases and 3 (0.03%) had more than 4 lymph node metastases. The resection margin was negative in 59 patients, close (${\leq}2\;mm$) in 15, and positive in 4. All patients received radiation therapy at the intact breast using tangential fields with a subsequent electron beam boost to the tumor bed at a total dose ranging from 59.4 Gy to 66.4 Gy. Patients with more than four positive axillary lymph nodes received radiation therapy ($41.4{\sim}60.4\;Gy$) at the axillary and supraclavicular area. Chemotherapy was administered in 59 patients and tamoxifen or fareston was administered in 29 patients. Results: The 5 year overall survival and disease-free survival rates were 98.08% and 93.49%, respectively. Of the 77 patients, a total of 4 relapses (5.2%), including 1 isolated supraclavicular relapse, 1 supraclavicular relapse with synchronous multiple distant relapses, and 2 distant relapses were observed. No cases of local breast relapses were observed. Lymph node metastasis or number of metastatic lymph nodes was not found to be statistically related with a relapse (p=0.3289) nor disease-free survival (p=0.1430). Patients with positive margins had a significantly shorter disease-free survival period (p<0.0001) and higher relapse rates (p=0.0507). However, patients with close margins were at equal risk of relapse and disease-free survival as with negative margins (p=1.000). Patients younger than 40 years of age had higher relapse rates (9.3% vs. 0%) and lower disease-free survival periods, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.1255). The relapse rates for patients with tumors was 14% for tumor stage T2, compared to 0% for tumor stage T1 tumors (p=0.0284). A univariate analysis found that disease-free survival and relapse rates, T stage, positive resection margin and mutation of p53 were significant factors for clinical outcome. Conclusion: The results of this study have shown that breast conservation surgery and radiation therapy in early breast cancer patients has proven to be a safe treatment modality with a low relapse rate and high disease-free survival rate. The patients with a positive margin, T2 stage, and mutation of p53 are associated with statistically higher relapse rates and lower disease-free survival.

• Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.283-296
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• 2006

Along with the development of scientific technologies, health care has been growing remarkably, and as the social life quality improves with increasing interest in health, the demand for medical service is rapidly increasing. However, medical accident and medical dispute also are rapidly increasing due to various factors such as, increasing sense of people's right, lack of understanding in the nature of medical practice, over expectation on medical technique, commercialize medical supply system, moral degeneracy and unawareness of medical jurisprudence by doctors, widespread trend of mutual distrust, and lack of systematized device for solution of medical dispute. This study analysed 30 cases of civil suit in the year between 1994 to 2004, which were selected among the medical dispute cases in dental field with the judgement collected from organizations related to dentistry and department of oral medicine, Yonsei university dental hospital. The following results were drawn from the analyses: 1. The distribution of year showed rapid increase of medical dispute after the year 2000. 2. In the types of medical dispute, suit associated with tooth extraction took 36.7% of all. 3. As for the cause of medical dispute, uncomfortable feeling and dissatisfaction with the treatment showed 36.7%, death and permanent damage showed 16.7% each. 4. Winning the suit, compulsory mediation and recommendation for settlement took 60.0% of judgement result for the plaintiff. 5. For the type of medical organization in relation to medical dispute, 60.0% was found to be the private dental clinics, and 30.0% was university dental hospitals. 6. For the level of trial, dispute that progressed above 2 or 3 trials was of 30.0%. 7. For the amount of claim for damage, the claim amounting between 50 million to 100 million won was of 36.7%, and that of more than 100 million won was 13.3%, and in case of the judgement amount, the amount ranging from 10 million to 30 million won was of 40.0%, and that of more than 100 million won was of 6.7%. 8. For the number of dentist involved in the suit, 26.7% was of 2 or more dentists. 9. For the amount of time spent until the judgement, 46.7% took 11 to 20 months, and 36.7% took 21 to 30 months. 10. For medical malpractice, 46.7% was judged to be guilty, and 70% of the cases had undergone medical judgement or verification of the case by specialists during the process of the suit. 11. In the lost cases of doctors(18 cases), 72.2% was due to violence of carefulness in practice and 16.7% was due to missing of explanation to patient. Medical disputes occurring in the field of dentistry are usually of relatively less risky cases. Hence, the importance of explanation to patient is emphasized, and since the levels of patient satisfaction are subjective, improvement of the relationship between the patient and the dentist and recovery of autonomy within the group dentist are essential in addition to the reduction of technical malpractice. Moreover, management measure against the medical dispute should be set up through complement of the current doctors and hospitals medical malpractice insurance which is being conducted irrationally, and establishment of system in which education as well as consultation for medical disputes lead by the group of dental clinicians and academic scholars are accessible.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.232-240
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• 1997

Background : Postprimary pulmonary tuberculosis is located mainly in upper lobes. The tuberculous lesion involving the lower lobes usually arises from the upper lobe cavity through endobronchial spread. When tuberculosis is confined to the lower lung field, it often masquerades as pneumonia, lung cancer, bronchiectasis, or lung abscess. Thus the correct diagnosis may be sometimes delayed for a long time. Methods : We carried out, retrospectively, a clinical study on 50 patients confirmed with lower lung field tuberculosis who visited the Department of Pulmonary Medicine at Hanyang University Hospital from January 1992 to December 1994. The following results were obtained. Results : Lower lung field tuberculosis without concomitant upper lobe disease occurred in fifty patients representing 6.9% of the total admission with active pulmonary tuberculosis over a period of 3 years. It occurred most frequently in the third decade but age distribution was relatively even. The mean age was 43 years old. Female was more frequently affected than male (male to female ratio 1 : 1.9). The most common symptom was cough(68%), followed by sputum(52%), fever(38%), and chest discomfort(30%). On chest X-ray of the 50patients, consolidation was the most common finding in 52%, followed by solitary nodule(22%) collapse(16%), cavitary lesion(10%), in decreasing order. The disease confined to the right side in 25 cases, left side 20 cases, and both sides 5 cases. Endobronchial tuberculosis (1) Endobronchial involvement was proved by bronchoscopic examination in 20 of 50patients. (2) Mean age was 44years old and female was more affected than man (male to female ratio 1 : 3). Sputum AFB stain and Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture were positive only in 50% of cases unlikely upper lobe tuberculosis, additional diagnostic methods were needed. In our study, bronchoscopic examination and percutaneous fine needle aspiration biopsy increased diagnostic yield by 18% and 32%, respectively. The most common associated condition was diabetes mellitus(18%) and others were anemia, anorexia nervosa, stomach cancer, and systemic steroid usage. Conclusion : When we find a lower lung field lesion, we should suspect tuberculosis if the patient has diabetes mellitus, anemia, systemic steroid usage, malignancy or other immune suppressed states. Because diagnostic yield of sputum AFB smear & Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture was low, additional diagnostic methods such as bronchoscopy and fine needle aspiration biopsy were needed.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.45-67
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• 2017

According to the Internet Usage Research performed in 2016, the number of internet users and the internet usage have been increasing. Smartphone, compared to the computer, is taking a more dominant role as an internet access device. As the number of smart devices have been increasing, some views that the demand on high-speed internet will decrease; however, Despite the increase in smart devices, the high-speed Internet market is expected to slightly increase for a while due to the speedup of Giga Internet and the growth of the IoT market. As the broadband Internet market saturates, telecom operators are over-competing to win new customers, but if they know the cause of customer exit, it is expected to reduce marketing costs by more effective marketing. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the cancellation rates of telecommunication products and the factors affecting them by combining the data of 3 cities, Anyang, Gunpo, and Uiwang owned by a telecommunication company with the regional data from KOSIS(Korean Statistical Information Service). Especially, we focused on the assumption that the neighboring areas affect the distribution of the cancellation rates by coupling type, so we conducted spatial cluster analysis on the 3 types of cancellation rates of each region using the spatial analysis tool, SatScan, and analyzed the various relationships between the cancellation rates and the regional data. In the analysis phase, we first summarized the characteristics of the clusters derived by combining spatial information and the cancellation data. Next, based on the results of the cluster analysis, Variance analysis, Correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used to analyze the relationship between the cancellation rates data and regional data. Based on the results of analysis, we proposed appropriate marketing methods according to the region. Unlike previous studies on regional characteristics analysis, In this study has academic differentiation in that it performs clustering based on spatial information so that the regions with similar cancellation types on adjacent regions. In addition, there have been few studies considering the regional characteristics in the previous study on the determinants of subscription to high-speed Internet services, In this study, we tried to analyze the relationship between the clusters and the regional characteristics data, assuming that there are different factors depending on the region. In this study, we tried to get more efficient marketing method considering the characteristics of each region in the new subscription and customer management in high-speed internet. As a result of analysis of variance, it was confirmed that there were significant differences in regional characteristics among the clusters, Correlation analysis shows that there is a stronger correlation the clusters than all region. and Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the cancellation rate and the regional characteristics. As a result, we found that there is a difference in the cancellation rate depending on the regional characteristics, and it is possible to target differentiated marketing each region. As the biggest limitation of this study and it was difficult to obtain enough data to carry out the analyze. In particular, it is difficult to find the variables that represent the regional characteristics in the Dong unit. In other words, most of the data was disclosed to the city rather than the Dong unit, so it was limited to analyze it in detail. The data such as income, card usage information and telecommunications company policies or characteristics that could affect its cause are not available at that time. The most urgent part for a more sophisticated analysis is to obtain the Dong unit data for the regional characteristics. Direction of the next studies be target marketing based on the results. It is also meaningful to analyze the effect of marketing by comparing and analyzing the difference of results before and after target marketing. It is also effective to use clusters based on new subscription data as well as cancellation data.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.170-203
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• 2018

From the period of Japanese colonialism up to the present, the researchers of archaeology and ancient history in Korea and Japan have paid much attention to the Honam area. Recently the ruins and relics of Wae lineage are often discovered at archaeological excavation sites in this region. In particular, at least 17 keyhole-shaped mounds were confirmed. The fact that three mounds were built on one site was newly revealed. Haniwa, a representative earthenware object of the Kofun period in Japan, was discovered as well. Therefore, the study of a historical meaning of archaeological materials about Wae lineage in the Honam area thus far must be reexamined. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area have been studied by selecting only specific cases. I identified all the ruins and relics of Wae lineage in the Honam area and analyzed the process of their change in this paper. I reviewed the relationship between Wae and Mahan, and the purpose of their negotiation based on archaeological characteristics, changing processes, and historical records on a quarterly basis. The ruins and relics of Wae lineage have increased and widely spread since the early period of the 5th century in the Honam area. This tendency continued until the late period of the 6th century. Weapons of Wae lineage were introduced and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late 4th century to the early period of the 5th century (TG232~TK216 period). Sueki was introduced from the middle to late period of the 5th century (TK208~TK23 period). Keyhole-shaped mounds and tombs in the style of Wae were built from the late period of the 5th century to the early period of the 6th century (TK47~MT15 period). Japanese weapons were introduced from the middle to late period of the 6th century (TK10~TK209 period). In other words, the archaeological appearance is different in each quarterly period. There was an intensive diplomatic relationship between Baekje and Wae in the TG232~TK216 period. The military might be included in a mission of Wae. The materials of Wae lineage of this period are likely to be related to this. Sueki spread to the inland part of the Honam area in the TK208~TK23 period. This Sueki tends to be excavated on advantageous sites for the accumulation and distribution of supplies. The main characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds are presumed to be a group of traders which were under the control of a certain influence in the north of Kyushu. The keyhole-shaped mounds were abruptly built at some distance from mounds of the leaders in the Honam area. Additionally, there was no special influence base to which the characters of the keyhole-shaped mounds belonged in the surroundings. However, it might have been impossible for the group of traders to build the keyhole-shaped mounds without the support from the residents at all because there was a big difference in the building technology of the keyhole-shaped mounds between Japan and the Honam area. The time of building some keyhole-shaped mounds is the same or almost the same with that of the mounds built for the regional leaders. This proves a close relationship with the residents as well. What do the archaeological materials of Wae lineage which have been used and buried mean over 200 years in the Honam area? Geumgwan Gaya, which had exported iron resources to Japan, perished in the early period of the 5th century. Instead of Gaya, the Honam area might have played an important role to supply the necessary resources to Japan. We assume that the Japanese (Wae) actively worked to acquire various resources focusing on the underground resources in the Honam area.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.