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A Delphi Approach to the Development of an Integrated Performance Measurement and Management Model for a Car Assembler

  • Shawyun, Teay
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.214-227
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    • 2008
  • Today's dynamic competitiveness requires an organization to improve its performance measurement and management. Quality Management Systems (QMS) abound, the main ones being: ISO series, Malcolm Baldridge National Quality Award (MBNQA), European Forum for Quality Management (EFQM), Six Sigma Business Scorecard and the Balanced Scorecard. Based on the literature, the IPMMM (Integrated Performance Measurement and Management Model) identified 7 key synthesized factors: leadership, strategy management and policy, customer and market, learning and growth, partnership and resources, internal processes and business results that are employed to investigate the key performance indicators of a car assembler using the Delphi methodology. In the 2 rounds of Delphi panels consisting of 20 senior management personnel, the $1^{st}$ round of 198 indicators in the IPMMM yielded 90 indicators. The $2^{nd}$ round yielded 43 performance indicators with 18 rated as critical based on the % assigned in the $1^{st}$ and $2^{nd}$ priority rating of "very important factor" and "key performance indicator" that must be ranked high on both of the priorities. The very critical indicators appeared to be: defect percentage and first time capability (tie in $1^{st}$ place) and revenue, goal setting, customer satisfaction index, on-time delivery, brand image, return on investment, Claim Occurrence Ratio, and debt being ranked from $3^{rd}$ to $10^{th}$. It can be surmised that an organization can identify and develop an appropriate set of performance indicators through the Delphi methodology and implement and manage them based on the Balanced Scorecard.

The Time-Varying Coefficient Fama - French Five Factor Model: A Case Study in the Return of Japan Portfolios

  • LIAMMUKDA, Asama;KHAMKONG, Manad;SAENCHAN, Lampang;HONGSAKULVASU, Napon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.513-521
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we have developed a Fama - French five factor model (FF5 model) from Fama & French (2015) by using concept of time-varying coefficient. For a data set, we have used monthly data form Kenneth R. French home page, it include Japan portfolios (classified by using size and book-to-market) and 5 factors from July 1990 to April 2020. The first analysis, we used Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test) for the stationary test, from the result, all Japan portfolios and 5 factors are stationary. Next analysis, we estimated a coefficient of Fama - French five factor model by using a generalized additive model with a thin-plate spline to create the time-varying coefficient Fama - French five factor model (TV-FF5 model). The benefit of this study is TV-FF5 model which can capture a different effect at different times of 5 factors but the traditional FF5 model can't do it. From the result, we can show a time-varying coefficient in all factors and in all portfolios, for time-varying coefficients of Rm-Rf, SMB, and HML are significant for all Japan portfolios, time-varying coefficients of RMW are positively significant for SM, and SH portfolio and time-varying coefficients of CMA are significant for SM, SH, and BM portfolio.

Analysis of 174 Consecutive Free Flaps (유리피판 이식술 174예의 분석)

  • Tark, Kwan Chul;Roh, Tai Suk
    • Archives of Reconstructive Microsurgery
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 2000
  • One hundred & seventy four consecutive free-flap transfers were reviewed to analyze distribution of the type of reconstructions, kinds of donor flaps as well incidence of complications. The role of emergent exploration and the effect of preoperative wound conditions in flap survival were evaluated. Free flap transfer for head and neck reconstruction was most common as 93 cases, followed by for upper extremity of 30 cases, for lower extremity 30 cases, 18 penile reconstructions and for trunk & breast 3 cases. Nine flaps exhibited signs of ciruclatory insufficiency between 5 hours and 7 days. Three were managed conservatively with ultimate partial necrosis of the flaps. Eight flaps required return to the operating room. On exploration, early arterial occlusion was revealed in 1 flap, late arterial occlusion in 2 flaps, early venous occlusion in 1 flap, late venous thrombosis in 2 flaps, prolonged venous spasm in 1 and hematoma in 1 flap. The average time from the first abnormal examination to exploration was 2.6 hours. There were no false-positive explorations. Four free flaps failed in spite of the correction of the cause of circulatory compromise. The remaining 4 flaps were salvaged following the correction the casuse. Recipient vessel problems such as irradiation and infection were the most common cause of circulatory crisis. Among the eight flaps requiring return to the operating room, single vein was anastomosed in three flaps and two veins in the remaining five. In the totally failed four flaps only single vein was anastomosed in three cases. The results of this study demonstrate the efficacy of clinical monitoring and the role of early exploration. Precautious selection of recipient vessels and two vein anastomosis are recommended for safe and better prognosis.

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A Study on Path Planning Algorithm of a Mobile Robot for Obstacle Avoidance using Optimal Design Method

  • Tran, Anh-Kim;Suh, Jin-Ho;Kim, Kwang-Ju;Kim, Sang-Bong
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.168-173
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we will present a deeper look on optimal design methods that are related to path-planning for a mobile robot. To control the motion of a mobile robot in a clustered environment, it's necessary to know a suitable trajectory assuming certain start and goal point. Up to now, there are many literatures that concern optimal path planning for an obstacle avoided mobile robot. Among those literatures, we have chosen 2 novel methods for our further analysis. The first approach [4] is based on HJB(Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation whose solution is the return-function that helps to generate a shortest path to the goal. The later [5] is called polynomial-path-planning approach, in this method, a shortest polynomial-shape path would become a solution if it was a collision-free path. The camera network plays the role as sensors to generate updated map which locates the static and dynamic objects in the space. Therefore, the exhibition of both path planning and dynamic obstacle avoidance by the updated map would be accomplished simultaneously. As we mentioned before, our research will include the motion control of a true mobile robot on those optimal planned paths which were generated by above algorithms. Base on the kinematic and dynamic simulation results, we can realize the affection of moving speed to the stable of motion on each generated path. Also, we can verify the time-optimal trajectory through velocity tuning. To simplify for our analysis, we assumed the obstacles are cylindrical circular objects with the same size.

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ACCURACY IMPROVEMENT OF LOBLOLLY PINE INVENTORY DATA USING MULTI SENSOR DATASETS

  • Kim, Jin-Woo;Kim, Jong-Hong;Sohn, Hong-Gyoo;Heo, Joon
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • v.2
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    • pp.590-593
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    • 2006
  • Timber inventory management includes to measure and update forest attributes, which is crucial information for private companies and public organizations in property assessment and environment monitoring. Field measurement would be accurate, but time-consuming and inefficient. For the reason, remote sensing technology has been an alternative to field measurement from an economic perspective. Among several sensors, LiDAR and Radar interferometry are known for their efficiency for forest monitoring because they are less influenced by weather and light conditions, and provide reasonably accurate vertical/horizontal measurement for a large area in a short period. For example, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and National Elevation Dataset (NED) in the U.S. can provide tree height information and DSM. On the other hand, LiDAR DSM (the first return) and DEM (the last return) can also present tree height estimation. With respect to project site of loblolly pine plantation in Louisiana in the U.S., the accuracy of SRTM C-Band approach estimating tree height was assessed by the LiDAR approaches. In addition, SRTM X-Band and NED were also compared with the results. Plantation year in inventory GIS, which is directly related to forest age, is high correlated with the difference between SRTM C-Band and NED. As a byproduct, several stands of age mismatch could be recognized using an outlier detection algorithm, and optical satellite image (ETM+) were used to verify the mismatch. The findings of this study were (1) the confirmation of usefulness of the SRTM DSM for forest monitoring and (2) Multi-sensors- Radar, LiDAR, ETM+, MODIS can be used for accuracy improvement of forest inventory GIS altogether.

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The Effects of Earnings Management, Related Party Transactions and ESG Management of Chaebol Firms on Corporate Performance in Korea (재벌기업의 이익조정, 관계회사 간 거래와 ESG 경영이 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Narantugs, Namuun;Liu, Yue;Kim, Sung-Hwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.103-123
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study investigates the effects of earnings management, related party transactions between chaebol affiliates on earnings management and ESG score on their profitability using return on assets (ROA). Design/Methodology/Approach - We use data including ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance) score of the Korea Corporate Governance Service(KCGS), and financial data of 10,145 firm-year observations from the Total Solution 2000 (TS 2000) and Korea Companies-Information Service (KOKOInfo), and apply the finite lagged models to investigate the long-term effects of related party transactions between chaebol affiliates of earnings management on ESG scores and corporate performance. Furthermore, to take into consideration the simultaneous mutual effects on each other of main variables, we introduce finite distributed lags of five years. Findings - First, ESG-rated firms have a higher total asset return than non-ESG-rated firms. Second, chaebol firms have a higher profitability than non-chaebol firms. Third, profit management of related party transactions between affiliates within a chaebol has a positive effect on the short-term profitability and a negative effect on the long-term profitability. Fourth, chaebol ESG firms have a lower impact on profitability due to rating up (down) than non-chaebol ESG firms. Research Implications or Originality - Based on the above results, it can be concluded that firms used related party transactions for earnings management, the effects of related party transactions change over time, and chaebol firms manipulate earnings through related party transactions and ESG scores.

Market sentiment and its effect on real estate return: evidence from China Shenzhen

  • LI, ZHUO
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.9
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    • pp.243-251
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we propose a phenomenon that analyze the impact of market sentiment on China's real estate market through the perspective of behavioral economics. Previously, real estate market analyzation basically focus on some fundamental principles which include market price, monetary policies and income, etc. However, little research has explored market sentiment and its influence. By using principal components analysis (PCA), this study first creates buyer's sentiment and seller's sentiment to measure the heat of China's real estate market. Different from using traditional estimation method, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) is used to analyze how both sentiments affect real estate return. The overall results show that from unit root test and impulse response analyzation, the impact of seller's sentiment is positive to real estate market while buyer's sentiment is negative. At the same time, the higher seller's sentiment will have different influence on the housing market compared with the higher buyer's sentiment.

Open Heart Surgery During the first 3 Months of Life (3개월 이하의 영아에서의 개심술)

  • 서경필
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.180-185
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    • 1993
  • From February 1982 to December 1991, 49 neonates and 105 infants in less than 3 months of age underwent open heart surgery in Seoul National University Hospital. There were 98 males and 56 females, and their mean ages were 16 days in neonatal group and 67 days in early infant group. Their body weight and height were less than 3 percentile of normal developmental pattern. In order of decreasing incidence, the corrected conditions included Transposition of great arteries with or without ventricular septal defect [43], isolated ventricular septal defect [34], Total anomalous pulmonary venous return [21], Pulmonary atresia with intact ventricular septum [9] and others [47]. Various corrective or palliative procedures were performed on these patients; Arterial switch operation [36], patch closure for ventricular septal defect [34], Repair of total anomalous pulmonary venous return [21], RVOT reconstruction for congenital anomalies with compromised right ventricular outflow tract [17]. Profound hypothermia and circulatory arrest were used in 94 patients [ 61% ]: 42 patients [ 85.7% ] for neonatal group and 52 patients [ 49.5% ] for early infant group. The durations of circulatory interruption were within the safe margin according to the corresponding body temperature in most cases [ 84% ]. The hospital mortality was 36.4% ; 44.9% in neonatal group and 32.4% in infant group 1 to 3 months of age. The mortality was higher in cyanotic patients [ 46.6% ], in those who underwent palliative procedures [ 57.8% ], in patients whose circulatory arrest time was longer than safe periods [ 60% 0] and in patients who had long periods of cardiopulmonary bypss and aortic crossclamping. In conclusion, there has been increasing incidence of open heart surgery in neonates and early infants in recent years and the technique of deep hypothermia and circulatory arrest was applied in most of these patients, and the mortality was higher in cyanotic neonates who underwent palliative procedures and who had long cardiopulmonary bypass , aortic cross-clamping and circulatory arrest.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

Open Heart Surgery During The First 12 Months Of Life (유아기의 개심술14례 보고)

  • Ahn, Kyuk;Suh, Kyung-Phill
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 1981
  • Fourteen Infants with congenital cardiac anomalies underwent primary surgical Intervention within the first 12 months of life. There were eight patients with ventricular septal defect, two with total anomalous pulmonary venous return [TAPVR], and the remainders with tetralogy of Fallot, transposition of great arteries [d-TGA], Taussing-Bing malformation, and coronary A-V fistula. The age of the patients ranged from 5 to 12 months, with a mean age of 9.9 months. The mean weight was 6.7 Kg [3.8 to 9.5 KS]. Congestive heart failure persisting despite intensive medical treatment was present In 8 patients [56%], and was the most common indication for operation. Early operation was necessary in 5 of these patients [35%], because of failure to thrive and recurrent pulmonary infection. In one patient with TOF, frequent hypoxic spell prompted the necessity for early operation. In cases of VSD, TAP. VR, TOF, and coronary A-V fistula, Intracardiac repair was done with conventional cardiopulmonary bypass, chemical cold cardioplegia, and topical myocardial cooling. Deep hypothermic circulatory arrest with surface induced cooling, followed by core cooling and core rewarming, was employed .for better exposure in the cases of d-TGA and Taussing-Bing malformation. The results were however, not satisfactory. The overall mortality was 28 per cent. There were no deaths in the eight patients with VSD. The one with coronary A-V fistula survived. The other 5 cases all expired either on the table or immediately after operation. The non-fatal post-operative complications included low cardiac output, respiratory insufficiency, bleeding, and temporary A-V block. The causes of death were prolonged circulatory arrest time in d-TGA, complete A-V block and low cardiac output in TOF and Taussing-Bing malformation and prolonged bypass time and Inadequate correction in TAPVR.

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