• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.135-149
• /
• 2022

Purpose - The primary objective of this article is to investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on institutional / individual / foreign investor reactions in the Korean stock market. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs a high frequency event study methodology to identify U.S. monetary policy shocks and quantify the impact of identified shocks on investor reactions. The dependent variable in the regression model is net stock purchase, while the explanatory variables are U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated for the period 2000-2019, including 156 FOMC meetings. Findings - Foreign investors immediately sell stocks in response to contractionary U.S. monetary shocks. They do not, however, react to anticipated changes in monetary policy rates, confirming the rationality of foreign investors. Individual investors demonstrate the opposite response, indicating that a non-trivial proportion of individual investors are irrational. Research implications or Originality - This study adds to the current literature on the effect of U.S. monetary policy on the Korean stock market. This study demonstrates a heterogeneous response to U.S. monetary policy shocks, validating the rational investment behavior of foreign investors, while individual investors exhibit a certain degree of irrationality. Methodologically, this study adds to the literature by quantifying the impact of U.S. monetary policy employing a sharper identification method allowing a simple and consistent estimation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
• /
• 2003.09a
• /
• pp.508-512
• /
• 2003

In 2000, the economy of Asia made a V-character type recovery from the currency and financial crisis in 1997. The increase in exports is assumed to be one of the causes. To negotiate with foreign countries, English must be indispensable in many cases. In this study, we investigated how English education is performed in East Asian countries while focusing on English textbooks. We metrically analyzed some textbooks used junior high schools and high school in Japan and Korea, and elementary schools in China and Singapore to compare them with U.S.A and U.K textbook. We investigated some characteristics of character-and word-appearance of English textbook using an exponential function. Moreover we derived the degree of difficulty far each material through the variety of words and their frequency on the basis of the required English vocabulary in Japanese junior high schools. As a result we could show at which level of U.S.A. or U.K the English textbooks used in East Asian countries are.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.30 no.1
• /
• pp.171-209
• /
• 2008

The Great Depression is one of the most important economic incidents in the twentieth century. A significant and long-lasting impact of this event is the rise of the government intervention to the economy. Under the catastrophic downturn of the economic condition worldwide, people required their government to play an active role for economic recovery, and this $mentalit{\acute{e}}$ prolonged even after the Second World War. Social science textbooks taught at Korean high schools mostly referred to the Great Depression for explaining the reason of government intervention in economy. However, the mainstream view commonly found in the textbooks provides a misleading theological interpretation. It argues that inherent flaws of the market economy causes over-production/under-consumption, and that this mismatch ends up with economic crisis. The chaotic situation was resolved by substitution of the governments for the market, and the New Deal was introduced as the monumental example ('laissez-faire economy ${\rightarrow}$over-production${\rightarrow}$the Great Depression${\rightarrow}$government intervention${\rightarrow}$economic recovery'). Based on economic historians' researches for past three decades, I argue that this mainstream view commits the fallacy of ex-post justification. Unlike what the mainstream view claims, the Great Depression was neither the result of the 'market failure', nor the recovery from the Great Depression but was due to successful government policies. For substantiating this claim, I suggest three points. First, blaming the weakness or instability of the market economy as the cause of the Great Depression is groundless. Unlike what the textbooks describe, the rise of the U.S. stock price during the 1920s cannot be said as a bubble, and there was no sign of under-consumption during the 1920s. On the contrary, a new consensus emerging from the 1980s among economic historians illustrates that the Great Depression was originated from 'the government failure' rather than from the 'market failure'. Policymakers of European countries tried to return to the gold standard regime before the First World War, but discrepancies between this policy and the reality made the world economy vulnerable. Second, the mainstream view identifies the New Deal as Keynesian interventionism and glorifies it for saving the U.S. economy from the crisis. However, this argument is not true. The New Deal was not Keynesian at all. What the U.S. government actually tried was not macroeconomic stabilization but price and quantity control. In addition, New Deal did not brought about economic recovery that people generally believe. Even after the New Deal, industrial production or employment level remained quite low until the late 1930s. Lastly, studies on individual New Deal policies show that they did not work as they were intended. For example, the National Industrial Recovery Act increased unemployment, and the Agricultural Adjustment Act expelled tenants from their land. Third, the mainstream view characterizes the economic order before the Great Depression as laissez-faire, and it tends to attribute all the vice during the Industrial Revolution era to the uncontrolled market economy. However, historical studies show that various economic and social problems of the Industrial Revolution period such as inequality problems, child labor, or environmental problems cannot be simply ascribed to the problems of the market economy. In conclusion, the remedy for all these problems in high school textbooks is not to use the Great Depression as an example showing the weakness of the market economy. The Great Depression should be introduced simply as a historical momentum that had initiated the growth of government intervention. This reform of high school textbooks is imperative for enhancing the right understanding of economy and history.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.107-133
• /
• 2011

This paper aims to analyze the causal relationships between agricultural exports and economic growth in the U.S. economy by 50 states. Using the annual data from 1973 to 2007, the theoretical methodologies based on the export-led growth (ELG) model under the static model, the impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variation decomposition (FEVD) under the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the Granger causality test. The results show the causal relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth at the states' level. Especially, the ELG hypothesis is strongly supported in the case of 16 states (HI, ID, KS, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SD, TX, WA, and WI) and is also weakly supported in the case of 31 states. Therefore, the agricultural exports are important factor of developing in the U.S. economy, and furthermore some states (located in coastal area and breadbasket) indicate the strong evidence for agricultural exports-led growth.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.351-365
• /
• 2005

Korean auto mobile industry has been contributed to development on national economy for last 30 years. Especially, The fact is that latest increasement of Korean automobile selling is worthy of notice in U.S. market which is the biggest automobile market of the world. But development of automobile industry unattainable nothing of helping of auto parts industry. So, when we discuss about growth of automobile industry, we also have to consider role of auto parts industry at the same time. The purpose of this study was to analyze exporting competition of Korean auto parts in U.S. market by using Index of Export Bias and Market Comparative Advantage Index. For attaining the purpose of study, we classified the Korean auto parts which exported to U.S. market and the world by using the six units classification of the Harmonized System(HS). Also we measured Index of Export Bias and Market Comparative Advantage Index. Analyzing period was 1998-2004. The results of Index of Export Bias indicated that HS Code No. 8708.50, 8708.91 represented over 3 numerical value and 8708.92, 8708.60, 8708.39, 8708.29 represented over 2 numerical value. Additional results indicated that the Korean auto parts which gained exporting competition in the U.S. market were HS Code No. 8708.70, 8708.93, 8708.92. The products which will have exporting competition in the U.S. market would be HS Code No. 8708.99,

• Strategy21
• /
• s.40
• /
• pp.37-81
• /
• 2016

This paper aims to use crossover analysis to uncover similarities and differences between the U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era and the modern U.S-China relationship, and to forecast the possibility of the outbreak of war between U.S and China by applying the steps to war theory. The steps to war theory argues that the probability of the outbreak of war between two states within five years would approach 90 percent, if they have ongoing territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, and arms race. The comparison exposes some similarities with the territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry, but reveals dissimilarities with arms race. U.S-Japan relationship in the World War II era had the arms race, which does not exist the modern U.S-China Relationship. The result of comparison is that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China correspond to third stage(Risk Level). it means that the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is 55%. But, There are four elements(① Perception of Leader ② Mutual dependence of economy ③ Possession of nuclear weapon ④ Ravages of war) that reduce the probability for the Outbreak of War. Considering the four elements, the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is a slim chance. But the probability for the Outbreak of War between U.S and China is excluded because of territorial dispute, alliance, rivalry. So, This paper suggests three points.(① Developing military options ② Reducing the misconception of intend, ③ Promoting navy exchanges) to prevent of Outbreak of War.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.845-852
• /
• 2003

Forecasting exchange rate movements is a challenging task since exchange rates impact world economy and determine value of international investments. In particular, Korean-U.S. exchange rate behavior is very important because of strong Korean and U.S. trading relationship. Neural networks models have been used for short-term prediction of exchange rate movements. Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is used widely in real-world regression tasks. This paper describes the use of LS-SVM for short-term and long-term prediction of Korean-U.S. exchange rate.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.3-23
• /
• 2016

In this study, we used actual proof analysis, based on SVAR model according to economy theory, to observe the impact of actual and financial market of Korea, Japan, and China that have adopted quantitative easing export based strategy of growth, an unconventional monetary policy of the U.S. As a result of estimation, it appears that real effective exchange rate rise shock of Korea, Japan, and China against U.S. dollar has a negative influence on current account and index of industrial product, which are real economy. It can be implied that the result is driven from the fact that strong home currency of Korea, Japan, and China decreases price competitiveness of exports, causing negative influence on real economy. The real effective exchange rate shock against U.S. dollar appeared to decrease national bond rate of Korea and Japan, while increasing that of China. In instances of Korea and Japan, it is implied that national bond rate decreases as foreigner investment funds flow in, considering foreign-exchange profit through advanced financial market with high opening extent. On the other hand, because there are strong regulation on opening extent of Chinese financial markets, the influence seems to be greater for domestic policy, rather than a foreign influence. Lastly, Korea showed a more dramatic variable reaction to exchange rate shock compared to Japan or China. It is implied from the result that Korea is relatively more susceptible and fragile in regards of international status of economic size and currency.

• Strategy21
• /
• s.36
• /
• pp.59-93
• /
• 2015

A Paradigm shift is in process in China's foreign policies during Xi Jinping's era. Such changes occur with changing national identities from developing country to great power, and from continental power to continental-maritime power. China's pursuit for sea power embraces its global strategy. Accommodating the new identity of maritime power, China is developing its maritime strategy. New silk-road strategy actively utilizes China's advantage in economy, while avoiding direct military challenges against the U.S. China seeks an associated balance of power with the U.S. On the other hand, China make its determination clear to protect its core national interests, particularly Taiwan straits issue, deploying Anti-Access and Area-Denial strategy. 'Pax-Americana 3.0' and 'China's rise 2.0' have convoluted and evolved in complexity. South Korea faces much tougher challenges ahead in its foreign and security environments.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.38-47
• /
• 2006

This study analyzes the expense structure of the air transport industry, based on the cost and income data of 18 major airlines, estimates the economic effectiveness of scale and conducts comparative analysis. As for the method of analysis, Translog cost function and the Fourier flexible function were used. The result showed that big companies had the economy of scale based on the Translog cost function, while the Fourier flexible function led to a estimation that expanding the input is not recommended, for the expansion of scale entails the poor economy of scale. It can be presumed that the economy of scale was estimated according to the U shape of the Translog cost function in the given data. On the other hand, the Fourier flexible cost function approaches the unknown function, as it is a Fourier series, and correctly infers the economy of scale based on the analyzed data. As for the flag carrier's economy of scale, it was inferred that the economy of scale existed by any of two functions. Therefore, the conclusion was that further expanding the scale will not cause any problem.