• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.353-371
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• 2022

This paper analyzes death counts after World War II of several countries to identify and to compare their stochastic structures. The stochastic structures that this paper entertains are three structural time series models, a local level with a random walk model, a fixed local linear trend model and a local linear trend model. The structural time series models assume that a time series can be formulated directly with the unobserved components such as trend, slope, seasonal, cycle and daily effect. Random effect of each unobserved component is characterized by its own stochastic structure and a distribution of its irregular component. The structural time series models use the Kalman filter to estimate unknown parameters of a stochastic model, to predict future data, and to do filtering data. This paper identifies the best-fitted stochastic model for three types of death counts (Female, Male and Total) of each country. Two diagnostic procedures are used to check the validity of fitted models. Three criteria, AIC, BIC and SSPE are used to select the best-fitted valid stochastic model for each type of death counts of each country.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제15권5호
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• pp.203-215
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• 2013

PURPOSES : This study deals with first traffic violations occurred by novice drivers, which may be associated with traffic accidents. The objective of this study is to identify what kinds of drivers' characteristics influence on duration till the first traffic violation. METHODS : For the study, Survival Analysis and Cox proportional hazard model, that are usually used in the medical field, were employed. Survival Analysis was conducted to investigate whether there exist differences in survival duration by each covariate, whereas Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify significant factors that affect survival duration till novice drivers violate traffic regulations for the first time after getting a driver license. RESULTS : The results of Survival Analysis indicate that female, age (less than 21), low-frequency examinee of written exam, and non-crash involved drivers have longer duration till the first violation compared to male, greater than 21 years old, high-frequency examinee of written exam, and crash involved drivers, respectively. For the Cox proportional hazard model, license class 1 acquisitor was found to increase the survival duration till the first traffic violation was made, while male, age of 21-24, age of 25-34, age of 45-54, and crash involved drivers were more likely to reduce the survival duration. CONCLUSIONS : Absolutely, traffic violation is closely related to traffic accidents and all of the drivers should keep the traffic regulations to enhance highway safety. The results of this study might provide some insights to construct safe road environments by controlling the factors that reduce the traffic violation duration of novice drivers.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제33권8호
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• pp.799-806
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• 2009

Thoracic injury from restraint loading is the principle causative factor of death, which was shown to be particularly significant for older drivers. To characterize thoracic response to belt loading of older drivers, detailed finite element models of the adult and aged thorax were developed. The geometry of the 50th percentile adult male was chosen for the adult FE model. The thoracic FE model was validated against data obtained from results of PMHS pendulum impact tests. The quantified patterns of age-related shape and well-established material changes were applied to the adult model to develop the aged model. Belt force and chest deflection were applied to the developed two types of models. Rib and clavicle fracture risk obviously increased in the aged model. This finding showed that larger rib angle and reduced material properties of the ribcage produced more higher risk of injury in the older driver.

• 운동영양학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.9-13
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• 2020

[Purpose] This preliminary study aimed to develop a regression model to estimate the resting metabolic rate (RMR) of young and middle-aged Koreans using various easy-to-measure dependent variables. [Methods] The RMR and the dependent variables for its estimation (e.g. age, height, body mass index, fat-free mass; FFM, fat mass, % body fat, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, pulse pressure, and resting heart rate) were measured in 53 young (male n = 18, female n = 16) and middle-aged (male n = 5, female n = 14) healthy adults. Statistical analysis was performed to develop an RMR estimation regression model using the stepwise regression method. [Results] We confirmed that FFM and age were important variables in both the regression models based on the regression coefficients. Mean explanatory power of RMR₁ regression models estimated only by FFM was 66.7% (R²) and 66.0% (adjusted R²), while mean standard errors of estimates (SEE) was 219.85 kcal/day. Additionally, mean explanatory power of RMR₂ regression models developed by FFM and age were 70.0% (R²) and 68.8% (adjusted R²), while the mean SEE was 210.64 kcal/day. There was no significant difference between the measured RMR by the canopy method using a metabolic gas analyzer and the predicted RMR by RMR₁ and RMR₂ equations. [Conclusion] This preliminary study developed a regression model to estimate the RMR of young and middle-age healthy Koreans. The regression model was as follows: RMR₁ = 24.383 × FFM + 634.310, RMR₂ = 23.691 × FFM - 5.745 × age + 852.341.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.81-92
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• 1992

A two-dimensional static biochemical model of lower extremity in the seated posture was developed to assess muscular activities of lower extremity required for a variety of foot pedal operations. We found that the double linear optimization method that has been used for modelling articulated body segments does no predict the forces generated by biarticular muscles reasonably, so the revised double linear optimization scheme was used to consider the synergistic effects of biarticular muscles in our model, assuming that the muscle forces are distributed proportionally based on their physiological cross sectional area. The model incorporated three rigid body se- gments with six muscles to represnet lower extremity. For the model validation, three male subjects performed the experiments in which EMG activities of six lower extremity muscles were measured. Predicted muscle forces were compare with the corresponding EMG amplitudes and it showed no statistical difference. The model being developed can be used to design and assess pedal and foot-related tool design.

• Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.154-165
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• 1991

1) 건강한 성인 2823명을 대상으로 자동혈구 계산기인 Coulter Counter Model S plus II를 이용하여 본원의 참고치를 설정하였다. 산출된 참고치는 기기의 설명서에 제시되어 임상 의사들이 사용하고 있는 참고치와 차이가 있었다. 2) 국내의 보고들과 비교해 볼 때 본원의 참고치와 대체로 비등하였고 기기의 설명서에 제시된 참고치와는 차이가 있으므로 본원의 참고치률 설정하여 사용하여야 하겠다. 3) 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 백혈구 수는 남자 $6.800{\pm}2.680(2SD)/{\mu}l$, 여자 $5.950{\pm}2.380(2SD)/{\mu}l$ 이었다. (2) 적혈구 수는 남자 $428{\pm}60(2SD){\times}10^4/{\mu}l$, 여자 $415{\pm}56(2SD){\times}10^4/{\mu}l$ 이었다. (3) 혈색소량은 남자 $15.4{\pm}1.8(2SD)g/dL$, 여자 $13.0{\pm}1.6(2SD)g/dL$ 이었다. (4) 적혈구 용적은 남자 $45.3{\pm}5.0(2SD)%$, 여자 $38.2{\pm}4.6(2SD)%$ 이었다. (5) 평균 적혈구 용적은 남자 $93.8{\pm}5.8(2SD)fL$, 여자 $92.2{\pm}7.4(2SD)fL$ 이었다. (6) 평균 적혈구 혈색소량은 남자 $31.8{\pm}2.2(2SD)pg$, 여자 $31.4;{\pm}2.8(2SD)pg$ 이었다. (7) 평균 적혈구 혈색소농도는 남자 $34.0{\pm}1.2(2SD)%$, 여자 $33.9{\pm}1.2(2SD)%$ 이었다. (8) 적혈구 분포 폭은 남자 $12.7{\pm}1.0(2SD)%$, 여자 $12.6{\pm}1.4(2SD)%$ 이었다. (9) 혈소판 수는 남자 $242.9{\pm}87.8(2SD){\times}10^4/{\mu}l$, 여자 $242.2{\pm}89.0(2SD){\times}10^4/{\mu}l$ 이었다. (10) 혈소판 용적은 남자 $0.201{\pm}0.076(2SD)%$, 여자 $0.204{\pm}0.076(2SD)%$ 이었다. (11) 평균 혈소판 용적은 남자 $8.20{\pm}1.70(2SD)fL$, 여자 $8.36{\pm}1.82(2SD)fL$ 이었다. (12) 혈소판 분포 폭은 남자 $16.1{\pm}0.8(2SD)%$, 여자 $16.0{\pm}0.8(2SD)%$ 이었다.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.567-581
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• 2006

The purpose of this research is to provide the basic data for the development of make-up color application system, based of Korean's skin tone and the preference in make-up color to enhance the effectiveness of the education of beauty in universities. The research was conducted by the previous studies, the analyses of sale's rate of hue-cosmetics, the analytic experiment of color of cosmetics by using Spectrum Color Analyzer and other experimental researches. This research, based on the results of three preliminary researches, shows the result of evaluation from perceivers which has been come out from the experiment of having one model in her twenties being changed with twenty-two different conditions of make-up. Here follows the result of the research. Firstly, there was difference on perceiving images in terms of the gender of perceivers and especially male-group tend to have clearly perceived the gap between elegance-greyish purple, orange-natural, red-classic on monochrome make-up and contrast make-up. Secondly, in terms of lip-colors, salmon pink and pink was regarded positively to both female and male subjects and to male subjects, greyish purple was thought to be better on darker skin-tone and to female subjects, better on lighter skin-tone. Thirdly, on image make-up, romantic gives intelligent image regardless of skin-tone and gender, especially gives more positive looks to male subjects. Natural and classic elements were perceived more positively on darker skin-tone and had bigger perceiving gap in female subjects. Fourthly, in preference rate, male subjects normally preferred the look with make-up than female subjects did and salmon pink and pink lip color was preferred on the darker skin-tone.

• 한국임상보건과학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.1337-1344
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• 2019

Purpose. This study was the analyze the refractive status of presbyopia in Korea. Methods. The subjects was from November 2018 to October 2019, two hundred thirty four subjects( 117 male subjects, 117 female subjects; from 40-year old to 88-year old ) were performed in refraction test using the Auto-Refraction(Speed -K model, Japan). The myopia, hyperopia, astigmatism, and anisometropia were defined as spherical equivalent(SE)≤-0.50 diopters, SE ≥+1.00 D, cylinder error ≥0.75 D and SE difference≥1.00 D between binocular eyes, respectively. Results. The refractive status by spherical equivalent among all subjects was myopia 61.43%, astigmatism 86.86%, emmetropia 19.18%, anisometropia 12.07%, and hyperopia 18.54. The prevalence of myopia and astigmatism were much more common in male. However, The hyperopia and astigmatism were much more common in female. The prevalence of spherical equivalent was much common from -0.50 diopter to -5.00 diopter. On the other hand, the prevalence of astigmatism and myopia was much more than hyperopia in all subjects. There was a statistical significance between OD and OS of the female and male in the spherical equivalent power(p<.000). However, there was not statical significant between female and male of OD and OS in the spherical equivalent power(p<.070). On the other hand, The prevalence of againest axis in astigmatism was more common in all subjects. In ADD power for the near vision correction, the female was much more diopter than male. Conclusions. These results suggested that the analysis of the refractive status on the presbyopia in Korea can give the useful diagnosis data for the correction of visual acuity at near distance.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.1861-1864
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• 2016

Although early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type is very important, the diagnostic accuracy of standard tests is a challenging issue. We here aimed to find an optimal combination of factors to improve diagnostic accuracy for distinguishing malignant from benign thyroid nodules before surgery. In a prospective study from 2008 to 2012, 345 patients referred for thyroidectomy were enrolled. The sample size was split into a training set and testing set as a ratio of 7:3. The former was used for estimation and variable selection and obtaining a linear combination of factors. We utilized smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) logistic regression to achieve the sparse optimal combination of factors. To evaluate the performance of the estimated model in the testing set, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized. The mean age of the examined patients (66 male and 279 female) was $40.9{\pm}13.4years$ (range 15- 90 years). Some 54.8% of the patients (24.3% male and 75.7% female) had benign and 45.2% (14% male and 86% female) malignant thyroid nodules. In addition to maximum diameters of nodules and lobes, their volumes were considered as related factors for malignancy prediction (a total of 16 factors). However, the SCAD method estimated the coefficients of 8 factors to be zero and eliminated them from the model. Hence a sparse model which combined the effects of 8 factors to distinguish malignant from benign thyroid nodules was generated. An optimal cut off point of the ROC curve for our estimated model was obtained (p=0.44) and the area under the curve (AUC) was equal to 77% (95% CI: 68%-85%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for this model were 70%, 72%, 71% and 76%, respectively. An increase of 10 percent and a greater accuracy rate in early diagnosis of thyroid nodule type by statistical methods (SCAD and ANN methods) compared with the results of FNA testing revealed that the statistical modeling methods are helpful in disease diagnosis. In addition, the factor ranking offered by these methods is valuable in the clinical context.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• 제35권3호
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• pp.305-318
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• 2019

Over the past decades, the Lee-Carter model [1] has attracted much attention from various demography-related fields in order to project the future mortality rates. In the Lee-Carter model, the speed of mortality improvement is stochastically modeled by the so-called mortality index and is used to forecast the future mortality rates based on the time series analysis. However, the modeling is applied to long time series and thus an important structural change might exist, leading to potentially large long-term forecasting errors. Therefore, in this paper, we are interested in detecting the structural change of the Lee-Carter model and investigating the actuarial implications. For the purpose, we employ the tests proposed by Coelho and Nunes [2] and analyze the mortality data for six countries including Korea since 1970. Also, we calculate life expectancies and whole life insurance premiums by taking into account the structural change found in the Korean male mortality rates. Our empirical result shows that more caution needs to be paid to the Lee-Carter modeling and its actuarial applications.