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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Effects of Dietary Quartz Porphyry and Feed Stimulants, BAISM Supplementation on Growth Performance and Disease Resistance of juvenile eel Anguilla japonica (사료내 맥반석과 BAISM 복합첨가가 치어기 뱀장어 Anguilla japonica의 성장과 내병성에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae, Jun-Young;Han, Kyung-Min;Lee, Jun-Ho;Kim, Sang-Eun;Lee, Jeong-Yeol;Bai, Sung-Chul C.
    • Journal of Aquaculture
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.26-33
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    • 2008
  • This study investigated the synergistic effects of dietary supplementation of quartz porphyry(QP) and a laboratory developed feed stimulants, BAISM(BS) on growth performance and utilization as the additives for juvenile eel Anguilla japonica. Six isoenergetic experimental diets(18.2 kJ/g) were formulated to contain 50% crude protein, 15% lipid with or without dietary QP(Song-Gang stone, Davistone, Korea) and BS supplementation. QP and BS were provided at 0% in the control diet($Q_0B_0$) and at 0.7% QP+0% BS($Q_{0.7}B_0$), 0.7% QP+0.3% BS($Q_{0.7}B_{0.3}$), 0.7% QP+0.5% BS($Q_{0.7}B_{0.5}$), 0.7% QP+0.75% BS($Q_{0.7}B_{0.75}$) and 0.7% QP+1.0% BS($Q_{0.7}B_{1.0}$) in experimental diets on dry matter basis. After four weeks of adaptation, triplicate groups of 30 fish initially averaging $15{\pm}0.1g(mean{\pm}SD)$ were randomly distributed into each aquarium, and they were fed one of the experimental diets for 8 weeks. By the end of the feeding trial, weight gain(%), specific growth rate(%), feed efficiency(%) and protein efficiency ratio of fish fed diet $Q_{0.7}B_{0.5},\;Q_{0.7}B_{0.75}\;and\;Q_{0.7}B_{1.0}$, were significantly higher(P<0.05) than those of fish fed the other diets. But, $Q_{0.7}B_{0.5},\;Q_{0.7}B_{0.75}\;and\;Q_{0.7}B_{1.0}$ were no significant differences(P<0.05). In challenge test, fish were infected by intraperitoneal injection of 0.1 mL bacterial suspension with Edwardsiella tarda per fish after the feeding trial. As a result, fish fed QP and BS supplemented diets have a significantly higher cumulative survival rate than those of fish fed control diet(P<0.05). In conclusion, these results indicated that the optimum dietary supplementation level of QP and BS could be approximately 0.7% quartz porphyry+0.5% BAISM($Q_{0.7}B_{0.5}$) of diet based on WG, FER, SGR, PER, cumulative survival rate in juvenile eel A. japonica.

The Efficiency of Bank Underwriting of Corporate Securities in Korea (국내 자본시장 증권인수기능의 효율성에 관한 연구 : 은행계열과 비은행계열 금융기관 비교 분석)

  • Baek, Jae-Seung;Lim, Chan-Woo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.181-208
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    • 2010
  • In July 2007, Korean government has passed "The Capital Market and Financial Investment Services Act" to further develop the capital markets and the Act was to become effective in February 2009. Using a large sample of Korean firms, we have examined (i) the effect of underwriting activities on the firm value (bond spread) comparing commercial bank and investment bank, and (ii) the determinants of the firm value changes following underwriting activities of bank. To test our goal, we collected a wide range of samples of data for bond issuing activities executed by Korean firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) between 2000 and 2003. Our paper is distinguished from previous studies on this subject in a way that we analyzed the effect of corporate bond underwriting activities with regard to commercial banking and investment banking. Initially, we set up a hypothesis that "Certification View" and "Conflict-of-interest View" are major driving forces behind cross-firm differences in performance following bond issuance. We find that, in general, underwriting by investment bank (securities company) brings a positive effect on the firm value (spread between bench mark rate and bond issuing rate). This result indicates that firm value has been negatively affected by the bank underwriting and provides the evidence for "Conflict-of-interest View" in Korea. Our studies have also revealed that any change in firm value following bond issuance is positively related with the firm size (total asset), operating performance, liquidity (cashflow), and equity ownership by foreign investors. Overall, our results support the view that bank underwriting activities can play an important role in determining firm value and financial strategies under "The Capital Market and Financial Investment Services Act" of 2007.

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A Study on the Outlook of Dentists on Dental Coordinators and Their Job (치과의사의 치과 코디네이터 업무 및 인식에 관한 조사연구)

  • Yoo, Jung-Sook;Jang, Mi-Hwa;Jung, Jae-Yeon;Cho, Myung-Sook;Choi, Bu-Geun;Hwang, Yoon-Sook
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.201-218
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to examine how dentists perceived dental coordinators including their education, hiring criteria, working condition and job. It's basically attempted to help define the job and role of 5 and to suggest how they should be nurtured. The subjects in this study were dentists at dental hospitals and clinics where dental coordinators were employed among approximately 200 dental institutions in Seoul, Cyeonggi province and Incheon. After a survey was conducted in June 2005, answer sheets from 99 respondents were analyzed. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. Regarding education for dental coordinators, 99.9% of the dentists investigated felt the need for separate education programs for dental coordinators, 42.4% knew what would-be dental coordinators learned about, and 81.8% considered it necessary for them to take intermediate or higher courses. An organization affiliated with the Korea Dental Hygienists Association was viewed as the best institute to educate dental coordinators, and educational institutes that included a department of dental hygiene was looked upon as the second best one. 68.7% believed that dental coordinators should take an official examination to test their qualifications, and concerning educational subsidy, the largest group of the dentists thought that a certain amount of subsidy should be provided. 2. As for coordinator hiring, the top priority was the impression(look) of applicants(55%), followed by adjustability to existing employees(24.5%) and professional competency(17.3%). As to the route of hiring, 41.4 percent, the largest group, reeducated some of existing employees, and dental hygienists were regarded as the best personnels to serve as a coordinator. Concerning job performance, they put the most emphasis on interpersonal relationship, which was followed by executive ability, impression and career, 58.6% the largest group, believed that dental coordinators should have a three-year or higher career to work at a dental institute. 3. As to working conditions, 75.7%, the largest group, paid dental coordinators based on their job performance, and 23.2%, the second largest group, had their pay equal to that of dental hygienists, 88.9% allowed them to determine their own retirement age. 4. In regard to their perception of dental coordinators, the largest number of the dentists considered it necessary for them to keep receiving education(4.29), and the second largest group felt that they served to enhance the image of dental institutes(4.18). The third largest group thought that they contributed to letting patients more satisfied with the quality of dental services. But they tended not to agree that their turnover rate was low(3.04), and they didn't find them to receive appropriate education, either(3.10). 5. The current major job of coordinators associated with customer services was handling appointments with customers(91.9%), treating unsatisfied customers(85.9%), and controling waiting time(84.8%). Regarding self-management, coordinators directed their energy into having good manners(89.9%), acquiring fundamental dental knowledge(84.8%), and learning how to treat customers(83.8%). Concerning hospital affairs handling, they were most responsible for information desk(87.9%), which was followed by receiving(86.9%). As a result of investigating what type of job the dentists hoped dental coordinators to fulfill in consideration of their career, their age and type of investment, the dentists wanted them the most to speak a foreign language, which belonged to the field of self-management.

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The Intelligent Determination Model of Audience Emotion for Implementing Personalized Exhibition (개인화 전시 서비스 구현을 위한 지능형 관객 감정 판단 모형)

  • Jung, Min-Kyu;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2012
  • Recently, due to the introduction of high-tech equipment in interactive exhibits, many people's attention has been concentrated on Interactive exhibits that can double the exhibition effect through the interaction with the audience. In addition, it is also possible to measure a variety of audience reaction in the interactive exhibition. Among various audience reactions, this research uses the change of the facial features that can be collected in an interactive exhibition space. This research develops an artificial neural network-based prediction model to predict the response of the audience by measuring the change of the facial features when the audience is given stimulation from the non-excited state. To present the emotion state of the audience, this research uses a Valence-Arousal model. So, this research suggests an overall framework composed of the following six steps. The first step is a step of collecting data for modeling. The data was collected from people participated in the 2012 Seoul DMC Culture Open, and the collected data was used for the experiments. The second step extracts 64 facial features from the collected data and compensates the facial feature values. The third step generates independent and dependent variables of an artificial neural network model. The fourth step extracts the independent variable that affects the dependent variable using the statistical technique. The fifth step builds an artificial neural network model and performs a learning process using train set and test set. Finally the last sixth step is to validate the prediction performance of artificial neural network model using the validation data set. The proposed model is compared with statistical predictive model to see whether it had better performance or not. As a result, although the data set in this experiment had much noise, the proposed model showed better results when the model was compared with multiple regression analysis model. If the prediction model of audience reaction was used in the real exhibition, it will be able to provide countermeasures and services appropriate to the audience's reaction viewing the exhibits. Specifically, if the arousal of audience about Exhibits is low, Action to increase arousal of the audience will be taken. For instance, we recommend the audience another preferred contents or using a light or sound to focus on these exhibits. In other words, when planning future exhibitions, planning the exhibition to satisfy various audience preferences would be possible. And it is expected to foster a personalized environment to concentrate on the exhibits. But, the proposed model in this research still shows the low prediction accuracy. The cause is in some parts as follows : First, the data covers diverse visitors of real exhibitions, so it was difficult to control the optimized experimental environment. So, the collected data has much noise, and it would results a lower accuracy. In further research, the data collection will be conducted in a more optimized experimental environment. The further research to increase the accuracy of the predictions of the model will be conducted. Second, using changes of facial expression only is thought to be not enough to extract audience emotions. If facial expression is combined with other responses, such as the sound, audience behavior, it would result a better result.

Mechanical Properties of Granulated Ground Blast Furnace Slag on Blended Activator of Sulfate and Alkali (황산염 및 알칼리계의 혼합 활성화제에 대한 고로슬래그미분말의 역학적 특성)

  • Kim, Tae-Wan;Jun, Yu-Bin;Eom, Jang-Sub
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 2015
  • This study shows the mechanical properties of alkali-activated slag cement (AASC) synthesized using sulfate with NaOH solution. The used sulfates were calcium sulfate ($CaSO_4$, denoted CS) and sodium sulfate ($Na_2SO_4$, denoted SS). The replacement ratio of sulfates was 2.5, 5.0, 7.5 and 10.0% by weight of slag. NaOH solution of 2M and 4M concentration was used. A sample was activated with sulfate and activated with blended activator (blending NaOH solution with sulfate) respectively. 24 mix ratios were used and the water-binder weight ratio for the test was set 0.5. This research carried out the compressive strength, flexural strength, ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV), absorption and X-ray diffraction (XRD). In the case of samples with CS, sample with 7.5% CS, sample with 2M NaOH+5.0% CS and sample with 4M NaOH+5.0% CS showed the good performance in the strength development. In the case of samples with SS, sample with 10.0% SS, sample with 2M NaOH+7.5% SS and sample with 4M NaOH+2.5% SS obtained good performance in strength. The results of UPV and water absorption showed a similar tendency to the strength properties. The XRD analysis of samples indicated that the hydration products formed in samples were ettringite, CSH and silicate phases. In this study, it is indicated that when compared to the use of sulfate only, the use of both sulfate and NaOH solution makes mechanical properties of AASC better.

Relation of Social Security Network, Community Unity and Local Government Trust (지역사회 사회안전망구축과 지역사회결속 및 지방자치단체 신뢰의 관계)

  • Kim, Yeong-Nam;Kim, Chan-Sun
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.42
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    • pp.7-36
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    • 2015
  • This study aims at analyzing difference of social Security network, Community unity and local government trust according to socio-demographical features, exploring the relation of social Security network, Community unity and local government trust according to socio-demographical features, presenting results between each variable as a model and verifying the property of mutual ones. This study sampled general citizens in Gwangju for about 15 days Aug. 15 through Aug. 30, 2014, distributed total 450 copies using cluster random sampling, gathered 438 persons, 412 persons of whom were used for analysis. This study verified the validity and credibility of the questionnaire through an experts' meeting, preliminary test, factor analysis and credibility analysis. The credibility of questionnaire was ${\alpha}=.809{\sim}{\alpha}=.890$. The inout data were analyzed by study purpose using SPSSWIN 18.0, as statistical techniques, factor analysis, credibility analysis, correlation analysis, independent sample t verification, ANOVA, multi-regression analysis, path analysis etc. were used. the findings obtained through the above study methods are as follows. First, building a social Security network has an effect on Community institution. That is, the more activated a, the higher awareness on institution. the more activated street CCTV facilities, anti-crime design, local government Security education, the higher the stability. Second, building a social Security network has an effect on trust of local government. That is, the activated local autonomous anti-crime activity, anti-crime design. local government's Security education, police public oder service, the more increased trust of policy, service management, busines performance. Third, Community unity has an effect on trust of local government. That is, the better Community institution is achieved, the higher trust of policy. Also the stabler Community institution, the higher trust of business performance. Fourth, building a social Security network has a direct or indirect effect on Community unity and local government trust. That is, social Security network has a direct effect on trust of local government, but it has a higher effect through Community unity of parameter. Such results showed that Community unity in Gwangju Region is an important factor, which means it is an important variable mediating building a social Security network and trust of local government. To win trust of local residents, we need to prepare for various cultural events and active communication space and build a social Security network for uniting them.

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A Study on Effects of Breeding Combination for Feeding and Economic Analysis in Broiler Stock (육용종계의 교배조합이 실용계의 사양과 경제성에 미치는 영향)

  • 박준영;오세정
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 1980
  • In order to identify the best superior cross combination of breeder stocks for broiler production, combining ability test and analyses of phenotypic performances for parent stocks were examined on records of 1,440 broiler chicken which were produced from 4 parental strains and 3 maternal strains at Hanhyup Poultry Breeding Farm from September 28, 1978 to January 5, 1979. The results obtained were as follows; 1. There was not found heterosis effect in viability but it seems to be desirable to select Hubbard strain in paternal line to improve viability. 2. As the paternal and maternal lines, selection of Ross strain showed the best paternal and maternal performance and the best general combining ability in body weight at 8 weeks of age is expected to be able to improve body weight of it s crossbred And the most superior cross combinations based on the specific combining ability and performance of rack crossbred were identified as Hubbard x Ross ana Ross x Hypeco crossbreds. 3. The best paternal and maternal lines on the smallest feed consumption for 8 weeks were Hubbard and Ross strains, and Hypeco strain, respectively. Especially Hubbard x Hypeco cross combination was proved as the smallest feed consumption compared with other cross combinations. 4. In feed requirement per Kg body weight increase, Hubbard strain for paternal line, Hypeco strain for naternal line, and cross combinations of Hubbard x Hypeco, Hubbard x Ross and Ross x Hypeco were certified as the most superiors. 5. Also superior cross combinations of Hubbard x Hypeco and Hubbard x Ross earned the most profit per bird through economic analysis. According to results as shown above, this experiment seems to be able to reach a such conclusion that production of superior cross combinations Hubbard x Ross, Hubbard x Hypeco and Ross x Hypeco through selection of Ross and Hubbard strains to paternal line and Hypeco and Ross strains for maternal line may become to considerable improvement for important economic characters of broiler; viability, body weight, feed consumption and feed requirement.

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Consideration of Normal Variation of Perfusion Measurements in the Quantitative Analysis of Myocardial Perfusion SPECT: Usefulness in Assessment of Viable Myocardium (심근관류 SPECT의 정량적 분석에서 관류정량값 정상변이의 고려: 생존심근 평가에서의 유용성)

  • Paeng, Jin-Chul;Lim, Il-Han;Kim, Ki-Bong;Lee, Dong-Soo
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Although automatic quantification software of myocardial perfusion SPECT provides highly objective and reproducible quantitative measurements, there is still some limitation in the direct use of quantitative measurements. In this study we derived parameters using normal variation of perfusion measurements, and tried to test the usefulness of these parameters. Materials and Methods: In order to calculate normal variation of perfusion measurements on myocardial perfusion SPECT, 55 patients (M:F = 28:27) of low-likelihood for coronary artery disease were enrolled and $^{201}TI$ rest/$^{99m}Tc$-MIBI stress SPECT studies were performed. Using 20-segment model, mean (m) and standard deviation (SD) of perfusion were calculated in each segment. As a myocardial viability assessment group, another 48 patients with known coronary artery disease, who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) were enrolled. $^{201}TI$ rest/$^{99m}Tc$-MIBI stress / $^{201}TI$ 24-hr delayed SPECT was performed before CABG and SPECT was followed up 3 months after CABG. From the preoperative 24-hr delayed SPECT, $Q_{delay}$ (perfusion measurement), ${\Delta}_{delay}$ ($Q_{delay}$ - m) and $Z_{delay}$ (($Q_{delay}$ - m)/SD) were defined and diagnostic performances of them for myocardial viability were evaluated using area under curve (AUC) on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Segmental perfusion measurements showed considerable normal variations among segments. In men, the lowest segmental perfusion measurement was $51.8{\pm}6.5$ and the highest segmental perfusion was $87.0{\pm}5.9$, and they are $58.7{\pm}8.1$ and $87.3{\pm}6.0$, respectively in women. In the viability assessment $Q_{delay}$ showed AUC of 0.633, while those for ${\Delta}_{delay}$ and $Z_{delay}$ were 0.735 and 0.716, respectively. The AUCs of ${\Delta}_{delay}$ and $Z_{delay}$ were significantly higher than that of $Q_{delay}$ (p = 0.001 and 0.018, respectively). The diagnostic performance of ${\Delta}_{delay}$, which showed highest AUC, was 85% of sensitivity and 53% of specificity at the optimal cutoff of -24.7. Conclusion: On automatic quantification of myocardial perfusion SPECT, the normal variation of perfusion measurements were considerable among segments. In the viability assessment, the parameters considering normal variation showed better diagnostic performance than the direct perfusion measurement. This study suggests that consideration of normal variation is important in the analysis of measurements on quantitative myocardial perfusion SPECT.

Study on the channel of bipolar plate for PEM fuel cell (고분자 전해질 연료전지용 바이폴라 플레이트의 유로 연구)

  • Ahn Bum Jong;Ko Jae-Churl;Jo Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.8 no.2 s.23
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to improve the performance of Polymer electrolyte fuel cell(PEMFC) by studying the channel dimension of bipolar plates using commercial CFD program 'Fluent'. Simulations are done ranging from 0.5 to 3.0mm for different size in order to find the channel size which shoves the highst hydrogen consumption. The results showed that the smaller channel width, land width, channel depth, the higher hydrogen consumption in anode. When channel width is increased, the pressure drop in channel is decreased because total channel length Is decreased, and when land width is increased, the net hydrogen consumption is decreased because hydrogen is diffused under the land width. It is also found that the influence of hydrogen consumption is larger at different channel width than it at different land width. The change of hydrogen consumption with different channel depth isn't as large as it with different channel width, but channel depth has to be small as can as it does because it has influence on the volume of bipolar plates. however the hydrogen utilization among the channel sizes more than 1.0mm which can be machined in reality is the most at channel width 1.0, land width 1.0, channel depth 0.5mm and considered as optimum channel size. The fuel cell combined with 2cm${\times}$2cm diagonal or serpentine type flow field and MEA(Membrane Electrode Assembly) is tested using 100W PEMFC test station to confirm that the channel size studied in simulation. The results showed that diagonal and serpentine flow field have similarly high OCV and current density of diagonal (low field is higher($2-40mA/m^2$) than that of serpentine flow field under 0.6 voltage, but the current density of serpentine type has higher performance($5-10mA/m^2$) than that of diagonal flow field under 0.7-0.8 voltage.

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