• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.15-45
• /
• 2009

This paper estimates the term structure of interest rates with the setup of 3-factor no arbitrage model and investigates the trend of term premia and the effectiveness of changes in policy interest rates. The term premia are found to be high in a three-year medium term objective, which can be interpreted as reflecting the recognition of investors who expect a higher uncertainty in real activities for the coming three years than for a longer term. Then, in order to look into the effect of policy interest rates after the recent change of benchmark interest rate, this paper analyzes the effects of the changes in short-term interest rates of the financial market on the yield curve of the bond market at time of change. Empirical results show that the discrepancy between call rate, short-term rate in money market, and instantaneous short rate, short-term rate in the bond market, is found to be significantly widened, comparing to the periods before the change in benchmark interest rate. It is not easy to conclude clearly for now whether such a widening gap is caused by the lack of experiences with managing new benchmark interest rate or is just an exceptional case due to the recent turmoil in the global financial market. However, monetary policy needs to be operated in a manner that could reduce the gap to enhance its effectiveness.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.249-256
• /
• 2000

Bond immunization model is used to minimize interest rate risk for investing in fixed-income market, the model equalizes asset and liability values using the duration which is the sensitivity of portfolio value with respect to the interest rate. However this model might generate an error in practice because the model is based on unreal hypothesis, so called "Parallel Shift Term Structure". In this paper, we use the neural network approach to overcome the parallel shift term structure and try to employ this term structure function to the traditional immunization model. Finally, we present some computational test results that show the superiority of the partial immunization model to the traditional methods.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.203-211
• /
• 2010

This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
• /
• 2005.05a
• /
• pp.179-184
• /
• 2005

Empirical findings on interet rate dynamics imply that short rates show some long memories and non-Markovin. It is well-known that fractional Brownian motion(fBm) is a proper candidate for modelling this empirical phenomena. fBm, however, is not a semimartingale process. For this reason, it is very hard to apply such processes for asset price modelling. With some modifications, this paper investigate the fBm interest rate theory, and obtain a pure discount bond price and Greeks.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.495-501
• /
• 2004

HJM representation of the term structure of interest rates sometimes produces the negative interest rates with positive probability. This paper shows that the condition of positive interest rates can be derived from the jump diffusion process, if a proper positive martingale process with the compensated jump process is chosen. As in Flesaker and Hughston, the condition is incorporated into the bond price process.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.655-663
• /
• 2003

The fundamental tenn structure model is based on the modelling of the short rate. It is well-known that the short rate depends on the interest rate policy of monetary authorities, especially on the official rate. Babbs and Webber(1994) modelled the tenn structure of interest rates using the official rate. They assume that the official rate follows a jump process. This reflects that the official rate infrequently changes. In this paper, we test this official tenn structure model and compare the jump-diffusion model with the pure diffusion model.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.113-125
• /
• 1975

The money market has been existing in various forms for a long time. Until 1972, however, the market had supplied mainly short-term loans of commercial banks and loans of informal money lenders to business corporations. There was no market for notes and commercial papers of business corporations. Consequently, business corporations had to rely primarily upon commercial banks for short-term credit loans to supplement their working capital. The interest rate on loans of commercial banks had been set below a free market equilibrium rate and thereby, generated excess demands for the loans. Unsatisfied potential borrowers thus had to turn to informal money lenders for short-term cerdit loans of prohibitively high interest rate. Since 1972 investment and finance companies have been operating in the money market and their role in mobilizing short-term loans is increasing. This paper aims at estimating the equilibrium size of the money market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.7
• /
• pp.15-25
• /
• 2020

This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.93-99
• /
• 2024

In this paper, we derive the Partial Differential Bond Price Equation (PDBPE) by using Ito's Lemma to determine the pricing of bond on term-structure of interest rate (TSIR) model with jump. From PDBPE, the Maclaurin series (MS) and the moment-generating function (MGF) for the exponential function are used to obtain a numerical solution (NS) of the bond prices. And an algorithm for determining bond prices using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques is proposed, and the pricing of bond is determined through the simulation process. Comparing the results of the implementation of the above two pricing methods, the relative error (RE) is obtained, which means the ratio of NS and MCS. From the results, we can confirm that the RE is less than around 2.2%, which means that the pricing of bond can be predicted very accurately using the proposed algorithms as well as numerical analysis. Moreover, it was confirmed that the bond price obtained using the MS has a relatively smaller error than the pricing of bond obtained by using the MGF.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.11
• /
• pp.689-698
• /
• 2020

The aim of this article is to determine the influence of factors on the capital structure of construction companies listed on the Hanoi Stock Exchange. The data of the article were collected and calculated from the financial statements of 54 construction companies listed on Hanoi Stock Exchange from 2012 to 2019. With the application of E-view software in quantitative analysis to build panel data regression model (panel data), the article has built a regression model to determine the relationship of intrinsic factors affecting the capital structure of construction companies listed on Hanoi Stock Exchange. In the study, dependent variable is capital structure, determined by the debt-to-equity ratio. Profitability, coefficient of solvency, size, loan interest rate, structure of tangible assets, and growth are independent variables. The results showed that the two factors of growth and firm size positively affect the capital structure, the profitability factor has the opposite effect on capital structure. Factors of short-term debt solvency, average loan interest rate and tangible asset structure have no correlation with capital structure. The findings of this article are useful for business administrators, helping business managers make the right financial decisions to make capital structure decisions in their own conditions.