• Title/Summary/Keyword: Technology Growth Model

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Elimination of Outlier from Technology Growth Curve using M-estimator for Defense Science and Technology Survey (M-추정을 사용한 국방과학기술 수준조사 기술성장모형의 이상치 제거)

  • Kim, Jangheon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2020
  • Technology growth curve methodology is commonly used in technology forecasting. A technology growth curve represents the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to compare the technological performances between Korea and advanced nations and to describe the inflection points, the limit of improvement of a technology and their technology innovation strategies, etc. However, the curve fitting to a set of survey data often leads to model mis-specification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect result since data through survey with experts frequently contain outlier in process of curve fitting due to the subjective response characteristics. This paper propose a method to eliminate of outlier from a technology growth curve using M-estimator. The experimental results prove the overall improvement in technology growth curves by several pilot tests using real-data in Defense Science and Technology Survey reports.

The Effects of Technology Commercialization Capability and Competitive Strategy of Venture Companies on Growth Prospects: Focused on Mediating Effect of Business Model Innovation (벤처기업의 기술사업화역량과 경쟁전략이 성장전망에 미치는 영향: 비즈니스모델 혁신의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Mun Hyoung
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2022
  • Although the number of venture start-ups has increased significantly, it is difficult to judge the success or failure based on short-term performance alone. The survival of a company cannot be guaranteed if it does not show sustainable growth prospects. As a growth factor for venture companies, the level of technology commercialization capability and competitive strategies are considered important. Recently, the emergence of innovative business models is creating new opportunities and driving the growth of numerous venture start-ups. This study tried to investigate the mediating effect of business model innovation in the relationship between technology commercialization capability, competitive strategy and the growth prospects of venture companies. For this, empirical analysis was conducted using the original data of the Research on the Precision Status of Venture Firms 2021. As a result, production, manufacturing, marketing capability, cost leadership and product differentiation had a positive(+) effect on growth prospects. The mediating effect of business model innovation between all factors except for manufacturing capacity and growth prospects was verified. This study expanded the scope of research by shedding new light on the factors influencing the long-term growth prospects of venture companies and revealing business model innovation as a new mediating variable. In future research, it is necessary to develop an objective measurement tool and to identify differences according to industrial characteristics.

Nucleation and Growth of Bismuth Electrodeposition from Alkaline Electrolyte

  • Zhou, Longping;Dai, Yatang;Zhang, Huan;Jia, Yurong;Zhang, Jie;Li, Changxiong
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1541-1546
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    • 2012
  • The early stages of bismuth (Bi) electrodeposition on glass carbon electrode from alkaline electrolyte were studied by cyclic voltammetry, chronoamperometry, scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy and X-ray diffraction. The CV analysis showed that the electrodeposition of Bi was determined to be quasireversible process with diffusion controlled. The current transients for Bi electrodeposition were analyzed according to the Scharifker-Hills model and the Heerman-Tarallo model. It can be concluded that the nucleation and growth mechanism was carried out under a 3D instantaneous nucleation, which was confirmed by SEM analysis. The kinetic growth parameters were obtained through a nonlinear fitting. In addition, the Bi film obtaining at -0.86 V for 1 hour was of compact and uniform surface with good smoothness, small roughness and a very high purity. The Bi film were indexed to rhombohedral crystal structure with preferred orientation of (0 1 2) planes to growth.

Prediction of through the width delamination growth in post-buckled laminates under fatigue loading using de-cohesive law

  • Hosseini-Toudeshky, Hossein;Goodarzi, M. Saeed;Mohammadi, Bijan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.41-56
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    • 2013
  • Initiation and growth of delamination is a great concern of designers of composite structures. Interface elements with de-cohesive constitutive law in the content of continuum damage mechanics can be used to predict initiation and growth of delamination in single and mixed mode conditions. In this paper, an interface element based on the cohesive zone method has been developed to simulate delaminatoin growth of post-buckled laminate under fatigue loading. The model was programmed as the user element and user material by the "User Programmable Features" in ANSYS finite element software. The interface element is a three-dimensional 20 node brick with small thickness. Because of mixed-mode condition of stress field at the delamination-front of post-buckled laminates, a mixed-mode bilinear constitutive law has been used as user material in this model. The constitutive law of interface element has been verified by modelling of a single element. A composite laminate with initial delamination under quasi-static compressive Loading available from literature has been remodeled with the present approach. Moreover, it will be shown that, the closer the delamination to the free surface of laminate, the slower the delamination growth under compressive fatigue loading. The effects of laminate configuration on delamination growth are also investigated.

Schooling, Technology-specific Training and Economic Growth: a Theoretical Approach in a Model of Endogenous Innovation (학교교육과 기술특화교육의 기술혁신 및 경제성장효과: 내생적 기술혁신모형에서 이론적 접근)

  • Kim, Sang Choon;Choi, Bong-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.285-304
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    • 2017
  • This paper introduces household's decision for schooling and firm's decision for technology-specific training together into the second generation model of endogenous innovation, and analyses how schooling and technology-specific training interact each other, how they respectively affect innovation and economic growth, and also how the portfolio mix of schooling and technology-specific training changes as economy becomes more innovative. Main results are as follows: First, schooling and technology-specific training both have "inverted-U"shape growth effects. Second, schooling investment per labor required for growth maximization is always greater than that for firm profit maximization. Third, the optimal schooling for growth maximization decreases with technology-specific training. Fourth, the schooling effect on technology-specific training is "U"shaped, so that for firm's profit maximization schooling is substitutable for technology-specific training at the relatively lower level of schooling but complementary at its relatively higher level. Fifth, as economy becomes more innovative, the portfolio mix of education changes in favor of schooling.

A Study on Financial Sharing Economic Business Model by the Digital Technology Development (디지털기술의 발달에 따른 금융부문의 공유경제 비즈니스모델 탐색)

  • Song, Keyong Seog
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.21 no.4_spc
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    • pp.485-499
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    • 2014
  • Sharing Economy is the modern main item with ICT Development. Of course sharing economic item is the old and long run mainstream, but by the ICT technological development sharing economy is the fostering and affluent factors in the world economic growth. Though, in Korea, till now sharing economy is minimal, that will growth sharply. We can track various business models of sharing economy. Sharing economy is to buy use right not ownership. With the sharing economic business model wee can make also financial sharing model. In finance model we can divide two kind models. First, we can trace small size lending model with p2p type. And second, we can make financial information transaction model. But till now sharing economic system is not activated, because of many reasons. To activate, first we have to set law and various standards, and also government actively support many sharing economy firms and institutions. To catch up developed countries in the field of sharing economy we have to make aggressive and flexible rules and standards.

A Study on the Validity of the Technology Appraisal Model through the Analysis of the Business Performance and Technology Appraisal Items (기술금융기업의 경영성과와 기술력 평가항목 간 분석을 통한 기술력 평가모형의 타당성 연구)

  • Jun-won Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2020
  • This study started to identify the "Forward-looking" of the technology appraisal model introduced to diversify financing methods of SMEs and improve financial accessibility. The multivariate regression analysis was performed by setting the business performance(growth, profitability, and stability) of technology financing companies as dependent variables, technology appraisal items as independent variables, number of employees, age of the company, asset and the Korea Standard of Industry Classification related to firm size and industry characteristics as control variables. As a result of the analysis, the technology appraisal items did not explain the profitability of the company significantly and had a limited explanatory power on growth potential. However, in terms of stability, we confirmed that R&D capacity is a significant variable explaining the debt ratio of technology financing companies. Therefore, it is concluded that the 'Forward-looking' reflection on the growth and profitability of the company should be strengthened in the future adjustment of the technology appraisal model and the development of the technology appraisal model for investment.

Predictive Growth Model of Native Isolated Listeria monocytogenes on raw pork as a Function of Temperature and Time (온도와 시간을 주요 변수로 한 냉장 돈육에서의 native isolated Listeria monocytogenes에 대한 성장예측모델)

  • Hong, Chong-Hae;Sim, Woo-Chang;Chun, Seok-Jo;Kim, Young-Su;Oh, Deog-Hwan;Ha, Sang-Do;Choi, Weon-Sang;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.850-855
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    • 2005
  • Model was developed to predict the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in raw pork. Experiment condition for model development was full 5-by-7 factorial arrangements of temperature (0, 5, 10, 15, and $20^{\circ}C$) and time (0, 1, 2, 3, 18, 48, and 120 hr). Gompertz values A, C, B, and M, and growth kinetics, exponential growth rate (EGR), generation time (GT), lag phase duration (LPD), and maximum population density (MPD) were calculated based on growth increased data. GT and LPD values gradually decreased, whereas EGR value gradually increased with increasing temperature. Response surface analysis (RSA) was carried out using Gompertz B and M values, to formulate equation with temperature being main control factor. This equation was applied to Gompertz equation. Experimental and predictive values for GT, LPD, and EGR, compared using the model, showed no significant differences (p<0.01). Proposed model could be used to predict growth of microorganisms for exposure assessment of MRA, thereby allowing more informed decision-making on potential regulatory actions of microorganisms in raw pork.

A Software Cost Estimation Using Growth Curve Model (성장곡선을 이용한 소프트웨어 비용 추정 모델)

  • Park, Seok-Gyu;Lee, Sang-Un;Park, Jae-Heung
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.3
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    • pp.597-604
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    • 2004
  • Accurate software cost estimation is essential to both developers and customers. Most of the cost estimating models based on the size measure methods, such as LOC and FP, are obtained through size estimation. The accuracy of size estimation directly influences the accuracy of cost estimation. As a result, the overall structure of regression-based cost models applies the power function based on software size. Many growth phenomenon in nature such as the growth in living organism, performance of technology, and learning capability of human show an S-shaped curve. This paper proposes a model which estimates the developing effort by using the growth curve. The presented model assumes that the relation cost and size follows the growth curve. The appropriateness of the growth curve model based on Function Point, Full-Function Point and Use-Case Point, which are the general methods in estimating the software size have been confirmed. The proposed growth curve model shows similar performance with power function model. In conclusion, the growth curve model can be applied in the estimation of the software cost.

Population changes and growth modeling of Salmonella enterica during alfalfa seed germination and early sprout development

  • Kim, Won-Il;Ryu, Sang Don;Kim, Se-Ri;Kim, Hyun-Ju;Lee, Seungdon;Kim, Jinwoo
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1865-1869
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    • 2018
  • This study examined the effects of alfalfa seed germination on growth of Salmonella enterica. We investigated the population changes of S. enterica during early sprout development. We found that the population density of S. enterica, which was inoculated on alfalfa seeds was increased during sprout development under all experimental temperatures, whereas a significant reduction was observed when S. enterica was inoculated on fully germinated sprouts. To establish a model for predicting S. enterica growth during alfalfa sprout development, the kinetic growth data under isothermal conditions were collected and evaluated based on Baranyi model as a primary model for growth data. To elucidate the influence of temperature on S. enterica growth rates, three secondary models were compared and found that the Arrhenius-type model was more suitable than others. We believe that our model can be utilized to predict S. enterica behavior in alfalfa sprout and to conduct microbial risk assessments.