• Title/Summary/Keyword: Technical Indicators

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A Study on Admissibility Framework for Establishing Trust in Digital Records : Focused on the Development of the Trustworthiness Model for Public Digital Records (전자기록의 신뢰가치 확립을 위한 증거능력 구현체계 연구 우리나라 공공 전자기록의 신뢰가치 모델 개발을 중심으로)

  • Hyun, Moonsoo
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.73
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    • pp.5-46
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to develop the trustworthiness model for public digital records, as an admissibility framework for establishing trust. The trustworthiness model is deemed to used to identify the qualities of the digital records in their lifecycle, including the identity that could be identified at the time of the creation, integrity obtained from the chain-of-custodial management, the evidence of relationship between business activities and records, and the technical or cognitive accessibility. Based on the analysis of the QADEP model, it was decided to develop a model that could measure the trustworthiness of public digital records in the external measurement type, which are authenticity, reliability, and usability. In line with this direction, the model expanded measurement areas and indicators of the QADEP model through the analysis of ISO 16175-1:2020, and measuring metrics was also proposed so that it could be a measuring instrument for public digital records in Korea, after analysing NAK 19-3. It would be useful to expand the model and to test the approach of the trustworthiness model for public digital records.

Financial Status of Korean Ppuri Industry based on Credit Evaluation (2017-2019) (신용평가에 기반한 한국 뿌리기업 재무상황 (2017-2019))

  • Kim, Bo Kyung;Kim, Taek-Soo;Lee, Sangmok;Kim, Chang Kyung
    • Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.83-93
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    • 2022
  • Throughout this research course, we have analyzed the financial situation of more than 2,700 companies using credit evaluation disclosures from 2017 to 2019. The population was gathered based on the certification of Ppuri companies and Ppuri Expertise companies through the Korea National Ppuri Industry Center, accompanied by the NICE credit evaluation index. For the first time in Korea, we wanted to look at growth, profitability, and stability through financial analysis of the Ppuri industry. Through an indepth analysis, we identified operating income (rate), net income (rate), asset size, and debt ratio, along with three years of Ppuri company workers and total sales fluctuations, and looked at the financial structure per capita. In addition, financial status per person was compared by dividing Ppuri companies into six groups by employee size. Groups were 10 or fewer people, 11 to 20 people, 21 to 50 people, 51 to 200 people, 201-300 people, and 300 or more people; single individual companies were excluded for research convenience. Overall, the financial situation of Ppuri companies was judged to be in a very bad downturn, and financial indicators deteriorated over the course of the three years of investigation. In particular, the smaller the number of employees, the greater the financial fluctuations were and the worse the situations were. Among Ppuri companies, the casting industry, which is the technical starting point for the value chain of the industry, was found to also be in a very bad state, with continued workforce declines, total assets and sales reductions at severe levels, and operating income (rate) and net income (rate) also very poor. This is why we need a suitable and feasible policy direction, something that is difficult but must be allowed to develop.

Study on Sustainable Development Efficiency of Foreign Trade in Eastern China Based on DEA Model (DEA모형을 이용한 중국 동부지역 대외무역의 지속가능 발전 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Xu, Yan;Sim, Jae-Yeon
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.59-73
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    • 2022
  • This paper aims to analyze efficiency of sustainable development of foreign trade in eastern China to reduce the input while maintaining the current output level. This paper adopts relevant input-output indicators of 11 provinces in eastern China from 2016 to 2020 and uses DEA to measure comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency from the input perspective. Malmquist index was used to calculate MPI. As a result, from 2016 to 2020, the MPI of all provinces in eastern China was 1.035, higher than 1, and the net technology efficiency was 0.911, lower than 1. Overall, the average technological progress index increased 4.5% to 1.045. It can be seen that the sustainable development efficiency of foreign trade has an overall influence on comprehensive efficiency, net technology efficiency, and scale efficiency. The efficiency of sustainable development of foreign trade in eastern China is mainly limited by its scale. The improvement of MPI in the eastern Region mainly benefits from technological progress. For provinces affected by internal factors, it is suggested to strengthen internal coordination. For provinces affected by external factors, it is suggested to respond appropriately to external factors.

Designing a Employment Prediction Model Using Machine Learning: Focusing on D-University Graduates (머신러닝을 활용한 취업 예측 모델 설계: D대학교 졸업생을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sungkook;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2022
  • Recently, youth unemployment, especially the unemployment problem of university graduates, has emerged as a social problem. Unemployment of university graduates is both a pan-national issue and a university-level issue, and each university is making many efforts to increase the employment rate of graduates. In this study, we present a model that predicts employment availability of D-university graduates by utilizing Machine Learning. The variables used were analyzed using up to 138 personal information, admission information, bachelor's information, etc., but in order to reflect them in the future curriculum, only the data after admission works effectively, so by department / student. The proposal was limited to the recommended ability to improve the separate employment rate. In other words, since admission grades are indicators that cannot be improved due to individual efforts after enrollment, they were used to improve the degree of prediction of employment rate. In this research, we implemented a employment prediction model through analysis of the core ability of D-University, which reflects the university's philosophy, goals, human resources awards, etc., and machined the impact of the introduction of a new core ability prediction model on actual employment. Use learning to evaluate. Carried out. It is significant to establish a basis for improving the employment rate by applying the results of future research to the establishment of curriculums by department and guidance for student careers.

Comparison of Construction Cost Applied by RC and PC Construction Method for Apartment House and Establishment of OSC Economic Analysis Framework (공동주택 RC 및 PC공법 적용 공사비 비교 및 OSC의 포괄적 경제성 분석 프레임워크 구축)

  • Yun, Won-Gun;Bae, Byung-Yun;Kang, Tai-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.30-42
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    • 2022
  • OSC is a type of supply chain and value chain that spans the entire process of construction production (planning, design, construction, maintenance, etc.). It is a method of producing the final object by manufacturing it in a factory, transporting it to the site, installing and construction. This research as is the construction cost was compared for each case A, which applied the PC method, and case B, which applied the RC method. In the case of applying the PC method (excluding the PC design cost), compared to the case where only the RC method was applied, the frame construction cost per unit quantity (m3) increased by about 70% (50% based on the total RC construction type). Of the total frame construction cost of PC method application, PC accounted for 90.2%, 'PC manufacturing cost' 54.8%, 'PC assembly cost' 28.5%, and 'transportation cost' accounted for 6.89%. Also a decision-making framework that can consider both costs and benefits was established. In the case of benefits, the construction period, defect repair, disaster occurrence, energy efficiency, noise/dust/waste, and greenhouse gas emission indicators reflecting OSC technical advantages were presented. It can contribute to providing a basis for helping decision-making on the introduction of PC apartment houses using OSC.

Water Quality Monitoring of the Ecological Pond Constructed by LID Technique in Idle Space (유휴 공간에 LID 기법을 활용한 생태연못의 수질 모니터링)

  • Ahn, Chang-Hyuk;Song, Ho-Myeon;Park, Joon-Ha;Park, Jum-Ok;Park, Jae-Roh
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.674-684
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to construct ecological pond using LID technique in order to create naturally comfortable community space in urban idle space. The specification of the ecological pond is $110m^2$ of surface area, $0.45{\pm}0.02m$ of average depth, and bed material is composed of gravel (diameter ${\leq}60mm$), sand (diameter ${\leq}2mm$) and bentonite. Rainfall and water depth monitoring were conducted to determine the annual characteristics of inflow of the water for the ecological pond, result of total rainfall was 1,287 mm and showed a seasonal imbalance that accounted for 71.3% (918 mm) during July to August, but the annual mean water depth was kept constant at $0.45{\pm}0.02m$ due to the secondary water source. Annual trends of basic water quality showed a significant changes according to the season, such as water temperature ($5.2{\sim}28.8^{\circ}C$), DO (5.0 ~ 13.8 mg/L), EC ($113{\sim}265{\mu}S/cm$). BOD, COD, TN, and TP in physicochemical water quality tended to increase after October, but the ion parameters such as $NH_3$ and $PO_4{^{3-}}$ were generally low. Phytoplankton indicators Chl-a and BGA (blue green algae) showed a sharp increase from July to August, and green algae (Selenastrum bibraianum, Pediastrum boryanum etc.) and filamentous blue green algae (Phormidium sp.) emerged as a dominant species. The ion parameters ($F^-$, $Na^+$, $K^+$, $Mg^{2+}$, $Ca^{2+}$) were strongly correlated with the $Cl^-$ as a conservative substance (R=0.70~0.97, p<0.05). Water quality was influenced by the ambient environment such as seasonal changes or rainfall, and it was closely related to fluctuation of the inflow of the water. In the future, it is necessary to consider ecological connections by referring to the characteristics surveyed in this study in order to effectively manage the water quality and biodiversity of the ecological pond in idle space.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

A Study on the Characteristics of Enterprise R&D Capabilities Using Data Mining (데이터마이닝을 활용한 기업 R&D역량 특성에 관한 탐색 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Gook;Lim, Jung-Sun;Park, Wan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2021
  • As the global business environment changes, uncertainties in technology development and market needs increase, and competition among companies intensifies, interests and demands for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. In order to cope with these environmental changes, R&D companies are strengthening R&D investment as one of the means to enhance the qualitative competitiveness of R&D while paying more attention to facility investment. As a result, facilities or R&D investment elements are inevitably a burden for R&D companies to bear future uncertainties. It is true that the management strategy of increasing investment in R&D as a means of enhancing R&D capability is highly uncertain in terms of corporate performance. In this study, the structural factors that influence the R&D capabilities of companies are explored in terms of technology management capabilities, R&D capabilities, and corporate classification attributes by utilizing data mining techniques, and the characteristics these individual factors present according to the level of R&D capabilities are analyzed. This study also showed cluster analysis and experimental results based on evidence data for all domestic R&D companies, and is expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance R&D capabilities of individual companies. For each of the three viewpoints, detailed evaluation indexes were composed of 7, 2, and 4, respectively, to quantitatively measure individual levels in the corresponding area. In the case of technology management capability and R&D capability, the sub-item evaluation indexes that are being used by current domestic technology evaluation agencies were referenced, and the final detailed evaluation index was newly constructed in consideration of whether data could be obtained quantitatively. In the case of corporate classification attributes, the most basic corporate classification profile information is considered. In particular, in order to grasp the homogeneity of the R&D competency level, a comprehensive score for each company was given using detailed evaluation indicators of technology management capability and R&D capability, and the competency level was classified into five grades and compared with the cluster analysis results. In order to give the meaning according to the comparative evaluation between the analyzed cluster and the competency level grade, the clusters with high and low trends in R&D competency level were searched for each cluster. Afterwards, characteristics according to detailed evaluation indicators were analyzed in the cluster. Through this method of conducting research, two groups with high R&D competency and one with low level of R&D competency were analyzed, and the remaining two clusters were similar with almost high incidence. As a result, in this study, individual characteristics according to detailed evaluation indexes were analyzed for two clusters with high competency level and one cluster with low competency level. The implications of the results of this study are that the faster the replacement cycle of professional managers who can effectively respond to changes in technology and market demand, the more likely they will contribute to enhancing R&D capabilities. In the case of a private company, it is necessary to increase the intensity of input of R&D capabilities by enhancing the sense of belonging of R&D personnel to the company through conversion to a corporate company, and to provide the accuracy of responsibility and authority through the organization of the team unit. Since the number of technical commercialization achievements and technology certifications are occurring both in the case of contributing to capacity improvement and in case of not, it was confirmed that there is a limit in reviewing it as an important factor for enhancing R&D capacity from the perspective of management. Lastly, the experience of utility model filing was identified as a factor that has an important influence on R&D capability, and it was confirmed the need to provide motivation to encourage utility model filings in order to enhance R&D capability. As such, the results of this study are expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance individual companies' R&D capabilities.

Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.