A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.26 no.4
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- pp.111-126
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- 2020
Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.
This research is a case study to make sure the enhancement of students' imagination and creativity through developing and applying the Literature-Art-Science Integrated Education Program. Its research object was totally 25 persons of 29 students of the 1st to the 4 th Grades from Gunsan Sulsan Elementary School. Its research period lasted for 4 months from September to December, 2017, and I, as the research place, used the art room at Gunsan Sulsan Elementary School. The programs were totally 10 sessions with a unit of 1 session per each grade for 2 hours from 1:00 to 3:00 in the afternoon from Monday through Friday. I fixed ten themes of this program-eight plane modeling, and two solid modeling, and finished the work of storytelling during summer vacation. And I arranged their levels as low:middle:high(3:5:2) ones. The former was 'A Film of Monster Gorilla'(L), 'Learning the Spirit of Gyeongju Choi's Family'(M), 'A Tale of My Friend Made of Natural Materials'(L), 'The Reading of My Dream'(M), 'Gathering the Objects in My Mobile'(M), 'A Mock Trial of Marrying Off'(M), 'Painting My Favorite Children's Poem'(H), and 'Painting My Favorite Children's Song'(H), and the latter was 'Seeking for a Bluebird in My Mind'(L), and 'Making My Cherished Object' (M). Then I used the unique art expression technique per each theme, which were in sequence marbling, Korean paper art, combine painting, collage, imaginary painting, imaginary painting, play dough art, imaginary painting techniques. And I delivered to the students the scientific knowledge in terms of growing or manufacturing processes of materials used for making artworks. Prior to and after the processing this program, I surveyed about the students' ability of integrated thinking and emotional experience by 'Figure B Type' and 'Figure A Type' of The Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking, and took statistics with the resultant data. And I executed a paired t-test in order to verify the significance of mean difference in the result of investigation with those data. From the analyzed result according to the elements of creativity and the mean quotients of creativity, there showed a significant difference (t=3.47, p<.01) in 'fluency', and also a significant difference(t=3.59, p<.01) in 'creativity.' Judging from the statistic values of two fields such as the student's ability of integrated thinking and emotional experience, I estimate that over the majority of the students showed the enhancement in self-confident creative expression as well as higher interest and concern through this program. The result that I arranged and analyzed the making process of artworks, the photos of the resultant, etc. as such is as follows : Firstly, from this program being proceeded as art-centered STEAM class, the student's systematic problem-solving ability was improved in his ability of integrated thinking to transform the literary contents into artistic one. Secondly, the student obtained the emotional experience such as interest in the class, self-confidence, intellectual satisfaction, self-fulfillment, etc. through art-centered STEAM class using ten art expression techniques. Thirdly, the student's mind willing to cooperate, communicate with his friends, and care for them was ripened in the process of problem-solving. Fourth, the student's self-confidence was further instilled when presenting famous artists and their artworks in the introduction and finale of ten art expression techniques. Likewise, the statistic values on the fields of student's ability of integrated thinking and emotional experience illustrate that over the majority of the students showed improvement in the ability of creative expression with confidence as well as higher interest and concern upon this program.
These experiments pertain to various factors influencing the quantitative characters of cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons. Initially, in order to establish the possible ways of the silkworm rearing more than three times a year in Korea, the author attempted to get further information about the various factors affecting the cocoon crop in every silkworm rearing season. The trials were conducted eleven times a year at four places for three years. The field trial was conducted with 19 typical sericultural farmers who had been surveyed. At the same time the author statistically analyzed the various factors in close relation to tile cocoon crop in autumn season. The effect of guidance on 40 sericultural farmers was analyzed, comparing higher level farmers with lower level farmers ; and the author surveyed 758 non-guided farmers near the guided farmers during both spring and autumn seasons. In addition, another trial on the seasonal change of leaf quality was attempted with artificial diets prepared with leaves grown in each season. It was found that related factors to cocoon crops in summer and early autumn seasons appeared to be leaf quality, and temperature for young and grown larvae. A 2
According as the automation of clerical work(OA ; Office Automation) develops, the use of VDT(Visual or Video Display Terminal) is increasing suddenly. But, in proportion to the spread of office automation(OA tendency), the self-conciousness syptom attendant upon the work is appearing also (Kim, Jung Tae, Lee, Young Ook, 1990). The apparatuses of office enable the clerical workers to be convenient and perform mass businesses. But, they are increasing the opportunity to be exposed to VDT syndrom, techno stress, computer terminal disease, pain by muscle strain(RSI), bradycausia of noise nature, and electromagnetic waves, etc. which are referred to as the new type of occupational diseases to the workers. It is the real situation that the workers to use VDT is complaining of the physical inconvenience sense in the recent newspaper and literature, it is the point of time that the sydrome to come from VDT use and computer terminal disease, etc. must be classified into the occupational disease(Lee, Kwang Young 1990, Lee, Kyoo Hak 1990, Lee, Won Ho 1991, Lee, Si Young 1991, Lee, Joon 1991, Choi, Young Tae 1991, Heo, Seung Ho 1989). In addition, it is the real situation that the scientifitic study result about the scope that electromagnetic waves has influence on the human body has not been suggested yet, and criticism on the stable exposure permission standard about electromagnetic waves to be emitted from VDT and on the problem in the health about electromagnetic waves is continuing. (IEEE Spectrum, 1990). In addition according to the experience of nursery business of industry field, it is the real situation that the patients who consult complaining of physical and mental inconvenience sence, among the users of apparatus of office automation, are reaching 10% of the patients coming to doctor's room. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the self-consciousness symptom that the clerical workers complain of multilaterally with the actual state examination about the use of the apparatuses of offices automaton. Thus, this study was tried as th basic data for the cosultation and education for the maintenance and furtherance of the health of workers as the nurse of industry field, by confirming the contents of self-consciousness symptom attendant upon the use of the apparatus for office outomation making the financial institution in which the spparatus for office automation in most frequently used as the subject, and by examining whether there is the difference according to the subject of study, the data were collected, by using the questionnaire method, making 200 workers who consented to the study participation as the subject, among the persons who have spent over 3 months since they used the apparatuses for office automation and didn't receive the treatment in hospital due to the clerical disease for recent 3 years. The period of data collection was from Oct. 9, 1991 to Oct. 12. As for the measurement instrument about the complaint if self-consciousness symptom attendant upon the use of apparatuses fo office automation, the question item on the complaint symptom of health problem attendant upon the treatment of VDT that Kim(1991) developed and on CMI health problem and the question items on the fatigue degree due to industry were used by previous examination to 25 persons. Collected data were analyzed with the statistical method such as percentage, arithmetic mean, Person correlation coeffient, Kai square verfication, t-test, ANOVA, etc. by using SPSS/PC+ program, and the result is as follows : 1. The self-consciousness symptom that the clerical workers complained of most frequetly appeared high in 'My eyes are tired'(99.4%), 'I feel fatigue and weariness'(99.4%), 'I feel that my head is heavy5(90.0%), 'eyesight fell'(88.8%), 'I have a stiff neck'(88.8%), 'I fell pain in the shoulder'(85.0%), 'I feel cold and painful in the eyes'(76.9%), 'I feel the dry sense of eyeball'(76.2%), 'My nerves are edgy, and I an fretful, (75.6%), 'I feel pain in the waist'(73.2%) and 'I fell pain in the back'(72.8%). It emerged that the subject use the apparatuses for office automation complained of self-consciousness symptoms related to visual symptoms and musculoskeletal symptoms. 2. As for the general feature of examination subjects, the result to see the distribution by classifying into sex, age, school career, use career of apparatuses for office automation, skillfulness degree of the use of apparatus for office automation, use hours of the apparatuses for office automation per 1 day, type of business of the apparatus for office automation, rest hours during the use of apparatus for office automation, satifaction degree of business of office automation, and work circumstance, etc. emerged as follows : As for the sex of subjects, the distribution showed that men were 58.8% and women were 41.3%, Age was average 26.9. As the distribution of school career, the distribution showed that4below the graduation of high school' was 58.8%, 'graduation from junior college-university' was 35.0%, and 'over graduate school' was 6.3%. In the question to ask the existence or non-existence of experience of health consultation in connection with the work of office automation, the response that I had the consultation exprience and I feel the necessity emergerd as 90.1% And, the case that the subject who didn't wear the glasses or lens before using the OA apparatus wear glasses or lens after using OA apparatus emerged as 28.3% of whole. As for the existence or non-existence of use career of OA apparatus, the case under 3 years was highest as 52. 7%. As for the skillfulnness degree about the use of apparatus for office automation, most of them are skillful with the fact that 'common' was 44.4%, 'skill' was 42.5%, and 'unskillful' was 13.1% As for the use average hours of the apparatus for office automation per 1 day, the distribution showed that the case under 3-6 hours was 33.1%, the case under 6-9 hours was 28.1%, the case under 3 hours was 30.6%, and the case over 9 hours was 8.1% Main OA business and the use hours for 1 day showed in the order of keeping and retrieval, business of information transmission(162min), business of information transmission(79.3 min), business of document framing(55.5 min), and business of duplication and printing(25.4min). as for the rest during the use of apparatus for affice automation, that I take rest occasion demands the major portion, but that I take after completing the work emerged as 33.8%. Though the subiness gets to be convenient by the use of the apparatus for of office automation, respondents who showed the dissatisfaction about the present OA business emergd high as 78.1%. The work circumstances of each office was good with the fact that the temperature of office was 21.8, noise was average 42.7db, and the illumination was average 364.4 lx, in the light of ANSi/HFS 100 Standard. 3. Sight syptom, musculoskeletal symptom, skin and other symptoms showed the significant difference according to the extent of skillfulness of the apparatus for office automation. All the symptoms exept skin symptom showed the difference according to the use hours of the apparatus for office automation. All the question items exept the sytoms of digestive organs and the rest hours during the apparatus for office automation showed the signicant difference. The question item which showed the signicant difference from the satisfaction degree of present OA business showed the significant difference from all the question item classified into 6 groups. But, age and school career didn't significant difference from the complaint of any self-consciousness symptoms.