• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.79-116
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• 2008

This paper examines and estimates GARCH-VaR models (RiskMetrics, GARCH, IGARCH, GJR and APARCH) with three different distributions such as Gaussian normal, Student-t, Skewness Student-t Distribution using the daily price data from Korean Stock Market during Jan. 1, 1980-Sept. 30, 2004. It also compares them. In-sample test, this finds that for all confidence level as $90%{\sim}99.9%$, the performance and accuracy of IGARCH with ${\lambda}=0.87$ and skewness Student-t distribution are superior to other models and distributions in long position, but GARCH and GJR with Skewness Student-t distribution in short position. For above 99% confidence level, the performance and accuracy of IGARCH with ${\lambda}=0.87$ in both long and short positions are superior to other models and distributions, but Skewness Student-t distribution for long position and Student-t distribution for short position are more accuracy and superior to other distributions. In-out-of sample test, these results also confirm the evidences that the above findings are consistent as well.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.3-26
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• 2008

This article investigates the usefulness of the skewed Student-t distribution in modeling the long memory volatility property that might be present in the daily returns of two Australian financial series; the ASX200 stock index and AUD/USD exchange rate. For this purpose we assess the performance of FIGARCH and FIAPARCH Value-at-Risk (VaR) models based on the normal, Student-t, and skewed Student-t distribution innovations. Our results support the argument that the skewed Student-t distribution models produce more accurate VaR estimates of Australian financial markets than the normal and Student-t distribution models. Thus, consideration of skewness and excess kurtosis in asset return distributions provides appropriate criteria for model selection in the context of long memory volatility models in Australian stock and foreign exchange markets.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.947-978
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• 2007

In this paper, we investigated a Value-at-Risk approach to the volatility of two crude oil markets (Brent and Dubai). We also assessed the performance of various VaR models (RiskMetrics, GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models) with the normal and skewed Student-t distribution innovations. The FIGARCH model outperforms the GARCH and IGARCH models in capturing the long memory property in the volatility of crude oil markets returns. This implies that the long memory property is prevalent in the volatility of crude oil returns. In addition, from the results of VaR analysis, the FIGARCH model with the skewed Student-t distribution innovation predicts critical loss more accurately than other models with the normal distribution innovation for both long and short positions. This finding indicates that the skewed Student-t distribution innovation is better for modeling the skewness and excess kurtosis in the distribution of crude oil returns. Overall, these findings might improve the measurement of the dynamics of crude oil prices and provide an accurate estimation of VaR for buyers and sellers in crude oil markets.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.157-176
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• 2005

본 연구는 KOSPI자산 포트폴리오에 대한 VaR를 다양한 ARCH류 모형을 사용하여 추정하고 이들의 예측능력을 평가하였다. 활용된 모형은 우선 기본적인 GARCH(1,1)모형과 레버리지 효과를 감안한 TGARCH모형, 다양한 ARCH모형을 포괄할 수 있는 PGARCH모형, 변동성의 영속성을 고려한 IGARCH모형이 포함되었다. 모형 상호간의 성과비교에 추가하여 ARCH류 모형에서 수익률예측오차의 분포에 따라서 VaR의 예측성과가 얼마나 차이가 발생하는가를 확인하기 위하여 정규분포와 Student-t분포의 성과를 비교하였다. 마지막으로 VaR 추정시에 조건부평균을 무시하는 관례가 어느정도 타당성이 있는지를 확인하기 위하여 1시차 자기회귀과정에 입각한 조건부 평균을 감안한 결과를 검토하였다. ARCH류 모형에서 모형 설명력은 보다 정교한 모형인 TGARCH모형이나 PGARCH모형이 우월하게 나타났지만, VaR의 예측능력 우월성으로 이어지지는 않았다. Student-t분포를 가정한 경우 VaR모형 사후검증성과는 정규분포를 가정한 경우보다 모든 신뢰수준에서 개선되었으며, 조건부평균의 제거는 Student-t분포 가정하에서는 적합하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. ARCH류 모형에서 가장 단순한 형태인 IGARCH모형의 예측성과가 다른 모형들에 비하여 뒤떨어지지 않으며, 더욱 제약된 형태인 RiskMetrics의 EWMA모형이 사후검증에서 우수한 성과를 보여 단순한 모형의 유용성을 확인시켜주고 있다.

• Journal for History of Mathematics
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2000

The first part of this thesis discusses the Pearson's Curve Family which gives $\beta$distribution, $\Gamma$-distribution, $X^2$-distribution and t-distribution. The second part of this thesis gives some brief process of calculations for normal distribution density and t-distribution density by the 7-th type Curve of Pearson's Curve Family. Finally, a conclusion arrives that Student(Gosset) could not find out his famous 'Student's t-distribution' without his attending of 'Pearson's Differential Equation' class taught by Pearson himself when he was a senior student. However, if he had got a professorship at the Pearson Statistics Laboratory, the University of London, then he could not have found 'Student's t-distribution' for small sampling technique of modern statistics.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.29-43
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• 2012

Financial data such as stock index returns and exchange rates have the properties of heavy tail and asymmetry compared to normal distribution. When we estimate VaR using the GARCH model (with the conditional return distribution of normal) it shows the tendency of the lower estimation and clustering in the losses over the estimated VaR. In this paper, we argue that this problem can be resolved through the adaptation of the unbounded Johnson distribution as that of the condition return. We also compare this model with the GARCH with the conditional return distribution of normal and student-t. Using the losses exceed the ex-ante VaR, estimates, we check the validity of the GARCH models through the failure proportion test and the clustering test. We nd that the GARCH model with conditional return distribution of unbounded Johnson provides an appropriate estimation of the VaR and does not occur the clustering of violations.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.3-9
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• 2001

In this paper, a random number generator for simulation of speech-waveform coders was designed. A random number generator having a desired probability density function and a desired power spectral density is discussed and experimental results are presented. The technique is based on Sondhi algorithm which consists of a linear filter and a memoryless nonlinearity. Several methods of obtaining memoryless nonlinearities for some typical continuous distributions are discussed. Sondhi algorithm is analyzed in the time domain using the diagonal expansion of the bivariate Gaussian probability density function. It is shown that the Sondhi algorithm gives satisfactory results when the memoryless nonlinearity is given in an antisymmetric form as in uniform, Cauchy, binary and gamma distribution. It is shown that the Sondhi algorithm does not perform well when the corresponding memoryless nonlinearity cannot be obtained analytically as in Student-t and F distributions, and when the memoryless nonlinearity can not be expressed in an antisymmetric form as in chi-squared and lognormal distributions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.775-791
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• 2017

We frequently encounter binary data in real life. Logistic, Probit, Cauchit, Complementary log-log models are often used for binary data analysis. In order to analyze binary data, Liu (2004) proposed a Robit model, in which the inverse of cdf of the Student's t distribution is used as a link function. Kim et al. (2008) also proposed a generalized t-link model to make the binary regression model more flexible. The more flexible skewed distributions allow more flexible link functions in generalized linear models. In the sense, we propose a binary data regression model using skewed generalized t distributions introduced in Theodossiou (1998). We implement R code of the proposed models using the glm function included in R base and R sgt package. We also analyze Pima Indian data using the proposed model in R.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1437-1441
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• 2009

기존의 ADCP는 1m 이하의 저수심 지점에서 측정이 불가능하였으며, 유속계 측정장비는 저유속 지점에서 측정이 불가능한 경우가 많아 유량측정에 어려움을 겪는 경우가 많다. 최근 RDInstruments에서 제작한 StreamPro는 1m 이하의 수심, 0.1m/s 이하의 유속에서 측정이 가능하기 때문에 이를 이용하면 저수심, 저유속 지점에서 유량측정이 가능하다. ADCP를 이용한 측정의 경우 보다 정확한 측정성과를 얻기 위하여 유속의 50% 속도로 이동하며 측정하여야 하며, 4회 측정유량값의 상대오차가 5% 이내일 때 그 평균값을 측정치로 한다. 그러나 0.1m/s 이하의 유속이 나타나는 지점은 0.05m/s 이하의 속도로 이동하며 측정을 실시하여야 하며 이 경우 측정시간이 너무 길어지는 문제가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 StreamPro를 이용한 유량측정의 적용성 평가와 함께 적절한 신뢰도를 얻을 수 있는 실용적인 측정회수 분석을 실시하였다. StreamPro를 이용한 측정성과의 적용성을 평가하기 위하여 StreamPro와 동시에 Price 유속계 측정을 실시하여 이를 비교하였다. 실용적인 적정 측정회수 분석은 측정유량의 상대오차를 Student-t분포에 적용하여 불확실도값을 기준으로 분석하였다. StreamPro와 Price 유속계 측정성과를 비교한 결과, 평균 상대오차가 약 3.5%로 적절한 값을 나타냈으며, 저수심, 저유속 지점에서의 실용적인 측정회수는 약 11회로 나타났다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.103-111
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• 2013

As the demand-oriented management has been getting important in Supply Chain Management (SCM), various forecasting methods have been suggested including regression analyses. However, dependency structures among variables have been captured by a correlation coefficient, only. It results in inaccurate demand predictions. This paper suggests a new and effective forecasting modeling framework using student's t-copula function. In order to show overall modeling procedures framework, heavy tail typed numerical data and its copula estimations are provided. The suggested methodology can contribute to decrease the bullwhip effect and to stabilize volatile environment in a supply chain network.