• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stocks

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A Study on Stock Market Cycle and Investment Strategies (주식시장국면 예측과 투자전략에 대한 연구)

  • Kyoung-Woo Sohn;Ji-Yeong Chung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study investigates the performance of investment strategies incorporating estimated stock market cycle based on a lead-lag relationship between business cycle and stock market cycle, thereby deriving empirical implications on risk management. Design/methodology/approach - The data period ranges from June 1953 to September 2022 and de-trended short rate, term spread, credit spread, stock market volatility are considered as major input variables to estimate business cycle and stock market cycle by applying probit model. Based on the estimated stock market cycle, two types of strategies are constructed and their performance relative to the benchmark is empirically examined. Findings Two types of strategies based on stock market cycle are considered: The first strategy is to long(short) on stocks when stock market stage is expected to be an expansion(a recession), and the second one is to long on stocks(bonds) when expecting an expansion(a recession). The empirical results show that the strategies based on stock market cycle outperforms a simple buy and hold strategy in both in-sample and out-of-sample investigation. Also the out-of-sample evidence suggests that the second strategy which is in line with asset allocation is more profitable than the first one. Research implications or Originality The strategies considered in this study are based on the estimated stock market cycle which only depends on a few easily available financial variables, thereby making easier to establish such a strategy. It implies that investors enhance investment performance by constructing a relatively simple trading strategies if they set their position on stocks or choose which asset class to buy conditioning on stock market cycle.

Selecting Stock by Value Investing based on Machine Learning: Focusing on Intrinsic Value (머신러닝 기반 가치투자를 통한 주식 종목 선정 연구: 내재가치를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Youn Seung;Yoo, Dong Hee
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.179-199
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study builds a prediction model to find stocks that can reach intrinsic value among KOSPI and KOSDAQ-listed companies to improve the stability and profitability of the stock investment. And investment simulations are conducted to verify whether stock investment performance is improved by comparing the prediction model, random stock selection, and the market indexes. Design/methodology/approach Value investment theory and machine learning techniques are applied to build the model. Various experiments find conditions such as the algorithm with the best predictive performance, learning period, and intrinsic value-reaching period. This study selects stocks through the prediction model learned with inventive variables, does not limit the holding period after buying to reach the intrinsic value of the stocks, and targets all KOSPI and KOSDAQ companies. The stock and financial data are collected for 21 years (2001-2021). Findings As a result of the experiment, using the random forest technique, the prediction model's performance was the best with one year of learning period and within one year of the intrinsic value reaching period. As a result of the investment simulation, the cumulative return of the prediction model was up to 1.68 times higher than the random stock selection and 17 times higher than the KOSPI index. The usefulness of the prediction model was confirmed in that the number of intrinsic values reaching the predicted stock was up to 70% higher than the random selection.

Development of Road-Extension Rate Index and International Comparison of Road Stock (도로보급률 지표 개발과 OECD 국가간 도로스톡 비교)

  • Lee, Jae Hong;Kim, Hye Won;Lee, Chungwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3D
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    • pp.357-362
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    • 2009
  • The Investment to road projects has been a hot issue in the aspect of its possible overlapping or overinvestment in Korea. Therefore, additional road construction is not always accepted in these days. This paper investigated several indices including the country index and the road-extension rate index as well as a newly developed index for identifying and comparing road stocks among the OECD countries. Furthermore, the study has estimated some reasonable amount of additional road stocks of Korea when its GDP becomes twenty thousands per capita to forty thousands per capita in future by comparing the amount of stacks of OECD countries at those times. The result can be used for setting the target of road stocks in practical manner in the absence of the universally accepted theory in the road stock provision arena.

Olympic Advertisers Win Gold, Experience Stock Price Gains During and After the Games (오운선수작위엄고대언인영득금패(奥运选手作为广告代言人赢得金牌), 비새중화비새후적고표개격상양(比赛中和比赛后的股票价格上扬))

  • Tomovick, Chuck;Yelkur, Rama
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2010
  • There has been considerable research examining the relationship between stockholders equity and various marketing strategies. These include studies linking stock price performance to advertising, customer service metrics, new product introductions, research and development, celebrity endorsers, brand perception, brand extensions, brand evaluation, company name changes, and sports sponsorships. Another facet of marketing investments which has received heightened scrutiny for its purported influence on stockholder equity is television advertisement embedded within specific sporting events such as the Super Bowl. Research indicates that firms which advertise in Super Bowls experience stock price gains. Given this reported relationship between advertising investment and increased shareholder value, for both general and special events, it is surprising that relatively little research attention has been paid to investigating the relationship between advertising in the Olympic Games and its subsequent impact on stockholder equity. While attention has been directed at examining the effectiveness of sponsoring the Olympic Games, much less focus has been placed on the financial soundness of advertising during the telecasts of these Games. Notable exceptions to this include Peters (2008), Pfanner (2008), Saini (2008), and Keller Fay Group (2009). This paper presents a study of Olympic advertisers who ran TV ads on NBC in the American telecasts of the 2000, 2004, and 2008 Summer Olympic Games. Five hypothesis were tested: H1: The stock prices of firms which advertised on American telecasts of the 2008, 2004 and 2000 Olympics (referred to as O-Stocks), will outperform the S&P 500 during this same period of time (i.e., the Monday before the Games through to the Friday after the Games). H2: O-Stocks will outperform the S&P 500 during the medium term, that is, for the period of the Monday before the Games through to the end of each Olympic calendar year (December 31st of 2000, 2004, and 2008 respectively). H3: O-Stocks will outperform the S&P 500 in the longer term, that is, for the period of the Monday before the Games through to the midpoint of the following years (June 30th of 2001, 2005, and 2009 respectively). H4: There will be no difference in the performance of these O-Stocks vs. the S&P 500 in the Non-Olympic time control periods (i.e. three months earlier for each of the Olympic years). H5: The annual revenue of firms which advertised on American telecasts of the 2008, 2004 and 2000 Olympics will be higher for those years than the revenue for those same firms in the years preceding those three Olympics respectively. In this study, we recorded stock prices of those companies that advertised during the Olympics for the last three Summer Olympic Games (i.e. Beijing in 2008, Athens in 2004, and Sydney in 2000). We identified these advertisers using Google searches as well as with the help of the television network (i.e., NBC) that hosted the Games. NBC held the American broadcast rights to all three Olympic Games studied. We used Internet sources to verify the parent companies of the brands that were advertised each year. Stock prices of these parent companies were found using Yahoo! Finance. Only companies that were publicly held and traded were used in the study. We identified changes in Olympic advertisers' stock prices over the four-week period that included the Monday before through the Friday after the Games. In total, there were 117 advertisers of the Games on telecasts which were broadcast in the U.S. for 2008, 2004, and 2000 Olympics. Figure 1 provides a breakdown of those advertisers, by industry sector. Results indicate the stock of the firms that advertised (O-Stocks) out-performed the S&P 500 during the period of interest and under-performed the S&P 500 during the earlier control periods. These same O-Stocks also outperformed the S&P 500 from the start of these Games through to the end of each Olympic year, and for six months beyond that. Price pressure linkage, signaling theory, high involvement viewers, and corporate activation strategies are believed to contribute to these positive results. Implications for advertisers and researchers are discussed, as are study limitations and future research directions.

Soil Physicochemical Properties of Tree Plantations in a Fire-disturbed Forest and an Undisturbed Stand in Ulsan Metropolitan City (울산광역시 산불피해지의 조림지와 미피해지의 토양 이화학적 특성)

  • Kim, Choonsig;Jo, Chang-Gyu;Baek, Gyeongwon;Park, Seong-Wan;Cho, Hyun-Seo;Ma, Ho-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.2
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to compare soil physicochemical properties and nutrient concentrations of tree leaf between planted forests following forest fire and an undisturbed forest in the Bongdaesan mountain, where is located in the Ulsan metropolitan city. We established three deciduous tree planting (Liriodendron tulipifera L., Prunus yedoensis Matsum and Quercus acutissima Carruth.) plots, one unplanted plot following four-year forest fire and one undisturbed plot (Pinus densiflora S et. Z). Carbon (C) stocks in the organic horizon were significantly lower in the tree planted plots ($2394-3551kg{\cdot}C{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) or the unplanted plots ($3689kg{\cdot}C{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) than in the undisturbed plot ($9388kg{\cdot}C{\cdot}ha^{-1}$). However, phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) stocks in the organic horizon were not significantly different among the treatments. Soil water phase and soil pH were significantly higher in the P. yedoensis plot (water phase: 13.7-18.4%; soil pH: 4.62- 4.80) than in the undisturbed plots (water phase: 7.0%; soil pH: 4.10). Soil organic C concentration was slightly higher in the tree planted plots (1.89-3.60%) than in the unplanted (1.41%) plots. Soil Ca and Mg stocks at 10 cm of soil depth were significantly higher in the P. yedoensis and L. tulipifera plots than in the unplanted or undisturbed plots. Nutrient concentrations (Ca and Mg) of leaf were significantly higher in the L. tulipifera than in the Q. acutissima and the undisturbed pine plots. The results indicate that P, Ca, and Mg stocks in the organic horizon was not affected by tree planting, but Ca and Mg stocks at 10 cm of the soil depth were enhanced by the tree species established following four-year forest fire.

Annual Increase in Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks of Trees and Soils in a 'Niitaka' Pear Orchard Following Standard Fertilization Recommendations (표준 시비에 따른 '신고'배 수체 및 재배지 토양의 탄소 및 질소 저장량 변화)

  • Ro, Hee-Myong;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Seo-Yeon;Lee, Tae-Kyu;Kim, Jong-Sung;Park, Ji-Suk;Choi, Jang-Jeon;Lee, Min-Jin
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2015
  • We determined the total C and N stocks in trees and soils after 1 year of fertilization in an experimental orchard with 16-year-old 'Niitaka' pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai cv. Niitaka) trees planted at $5.0m{\times}3.0m$ spacing on a Tatura trellis system. Pear trees were fertilized at the rate of 200 kg N, 130 kg P and $180kg\;K\;ha^{-1}$. At the sampling time (August 2013), trees were uprooted, separated into six fractions [trunk, main branches, lateral branches (including shoots), leaves, fruit, and roots] and analyzed for their total C and N concentrations and dry masses. Soil samples were collected from 0 to 0.6 m in 0.1 m intervals at 0.5 m from the trunk, air-dried, passed through a 2-mm sieve, and analyzed for total C and N concentrations. Undisturbed soil core samples were also taken to determine the bulk density. Dry mass per tree was 5.6 kg for trunk, 12.0 kg f or m ain branches, 15.7 kg for lateral branches, 5.7 kg for leaves, 9.8 kg for fruits, and 10.5 kg for roots. Total amounts of C and N per tree were respectively 2.6 and 0.02 kg for trunk, 5.5 and 0.04 kg for main branches, 7.2 and 0.07 kg for lateral branches, 2.6 and 0.11 kg for leaves, 4.0 and 0.03 kg for fruit, and 4.8 and 0.05 kg for roots. Carbon and N stocks stored in the soil per hectare were 155.7 and 14.0 Mg, respectively, while those contained in pear trees were 17.8 and $0.2Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$ based on a tree density of 667 trees/ha. Overall, C and N stocks per hectare stored in the pear orchard were 173.6 and 14.2 Mg, respectively. Compared with results obtained in 2012, the amounts of C stocks have increased by $17.7Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$, while those of N stocks remained virtually unchanged ($0.66Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$).

Estimating the Changes in Forest Carbon Dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis Forests in South Korea under the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 산림 탄소 동태 변화 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Jongyeol;Han, Seung Hyun;Kim, Seongjun;Chang, Hanna;Yi, Myong Jong;Park, Gwan Soo;Kim, Choonsig;Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2015
  • Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and $164.2g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and $193.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.

Genetic Variability Comparison of Wild Populations and Cultured Stocks of Flounder Paralichthys olivaceus Based on Microsatellite DNA Markers (넙치, Paralichthys olivaceus 자연 집단과 양식 집단의 유전학적 다양성 비교)

  • Jeong, Dal Sang;Noh, Jae Koo;Myeong, Jeong In;Lee, Jeong Ho;Kim, Hyun Choul;Park, Chul Ji;Min, Byung Hwa;Ha, Dong Soo;Jeon, Chang Young
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.221-226
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    • 2009
  • Six microsatellite DNA markers were used to investigate the genetic variability between wild populations and cultured stocks of olive flounder Paralichthys olivaceus. The average of observed (Ho) and expected heterozygosity (He) ranged from 0.722 to 0.959, and from 0.735 to 0.937, respectively. There was no distinguishable difference between the wild populations and cultured stocks in terms of the observed and expected heterozygosities. However, number of alleles per locus differed markedly between the two fish groups: 19.7 to 21.8 for the wild populations and 12.0 to 14.7 for the cultured stocks. This result gives important information concerning the production of seedling for the improvement of genetic diversity in this species.

A Comparative Study on Improvements of Non - listed Stock Valuation System of Advanced Countries (비상장주식가치평가의 국가별 비교연구)

  • Choi, Dong-choon
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 2019
  • A stock valuation on the tax law is based on the valuation by market price. But, unlike the listed stocks, the unlisted stocks mostly have the unclear market price. Accordingly, it is necessary to calculate the fair value which corresponds to the market price. The purpose of this paper is to examine the appropriateness of the complementary valuation method in the Inheritance Tax and Gift Tax Act and to provide suggestions for improvement. This study is intended to provide the problems and solutions relating to the valuation of unlisted stocks through analysis of foreign legal systems and actual disputes. When the actual profit/loss data are used to calculate the net profit/loss value on the present regulations, it has the different weight on the latest 3 years' net profits and losses uniformly. Therefore, to extend the range of unlisted stocks valuation and to show the independent and high professionalism of appraisal council not the subsidy appraisal agency of the National Tax Service, it is necessary to change the current rule that the commissioner of the National Tax Service unilaterally appoints the private members into the method of public offering.

Cytological studies on Asiatic Cotton Varieties Cultivated in Korea -II. Korean Asiatic Cultivars ${\times}$ Gossypium herbaceum testers (한국동아면의 종분류에 관한 세포학적 연구 -II. 한국동아면 ${\times}$ G. herbaceum 검정종)

  • Mun-Hue Heu;Young-Am Chae;Soon-Jai Park
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 1969
  • To make clear the species of Korean Asiatic cotton, 21 Asiatic cotton varieties collected from China, Manchuria, Japan and Korea and preserved at suwon Crop Experiment Station were crossed to the tester stocks and cytological studies were made for their $F_1$ pollen mother cells. The results were summarized as follows: 1. In the all $F_1$ hybrids between the 21 collections and G. herbaceum tester stocks always one ring-four association was observed. 2. In the $F_1$ hybrids between additional 5 collections and G. arboreum tester stock ring-four or chain-four was not observed. 3. In the $F_1$ hybrids between G. herbaceum tester stocks and between G. arboreum tester stocks no ring-four or chain-four was observed, while in the $F_1$ hybrids between G. herbaceum tester stock and G. arboreum tester stock always one ring-four was observed. In the $F_1$ hybrids between collections also no ring-four or chain-four was observed. 4. From above results and together with the results reported in previous paper the species of Asiatic collections was inferred to the D.U. Gerstel's G. arboreum and their race was inferred to the J. Hutcinson's G. arboreum L. race sinense.

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