• 제목/요약/키워드: Stock Price Change

검색결과 102건 처리시간 0.023초

A class of CUSUM tests using empirical distributions for tail changes in weakly dependent processes

  • Kim, JunHyeong;Hwang, Eunju
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.163-175
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    • 2020
  • We consider a wide class of general weakly-dependent processes, called ψ-weak dependence, which unify almost all weak dependence structures of interest found in statistics under natural conditions on process parameters, such as mixing, association, Bernoulli shifts, and Markovian sequences. For detecting the tail behavior of the weakly dependent processes, change point tests are developed by means of cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistics with the empirical distribution functions of sample extremes. The null limiting distribution is established as a Brownian bridge. Its proof is based on the ψ-weak dependence structure and the existence of the phantom distribution function of stationary weakly-dependent processes. A Monte-Carlo study is conducted to see the performance of sizes and powers of the CUSUM tests in GARCH(1, 1) models; in addition, real data applications are given with log-returns of financial data such as the Korean stock price index.

Interpreting the Korean Crisis of 2008

  • Kim, Ginil
    • 사회경제평론
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    • 제38호
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    • pp.241-259
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    • 2012
  • This paper reviews four different kinds of currency crisis models proposed to explain the Korean crisis of 1997 to examine which model is more relevant to explain the Korean crisis of 2008. According to the author's investigation, the 'Frenkel-Neftci' cycle is more relevant model to interpret the Korean crisis of 2008. In 2008, spreads opened due to, first, high interest rate policy by the Korean government aimed to suppress real estate price increase, and, second, the expectation about exchange rate appreciation, and thirdly stock market returns after recovering the crisis. Then the international capital market catastrophe due to the subprime crises produced the sudden change of expectation of the market participants. Huge capital outflows resulted from the credit crunch in the international capital markets, and the possibility of exchange rate depreciation by the Korean government to promote exports in the course of the global recession.

중국기업의 국제회계기준 도입과 보수주의 특성 분석 (Analysis on Chinese companies with Introduction of the IFRS and the Conservatism Features)

  • 김동일
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제14권8호
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 중국의 국제회계기준의 채택시점을 중심으로 이전과 이후에 나타나는 보수적 회계처리의 차이점을 확인하기 위해 CSMAR(China Stock Market & Accounting Research)DB를 토대로 2002년부터 2014년까지의 패널 자료를 통해 유의적 차이점을 분석 검증하였다. 기업의 재무적 변화는 일반적으로 회계준칙의 변화 시점에서 차이가 나타날 수 있으며, 이러한 차이는 보수적 회계처리에 영향을 미칠 줄 수 있기 때문에 보수주의를 이해하는 것은 금융거래에 있어서 매우 유의미한 과정으로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 주당순이익 및 가격, 주식수익률, 부채비율을 통해 보수성을 측정하였다. 분석결과 보수적 회계처리는 기업회계기준의 도입 이후에 보다 높게 나타났으며, 부채비율이 높을수록 보수적 회계처리 비율이 높은 것으로 분석 되었다. 따라서 특정한 회계기준의 변화 시점에서 기업은 미래금융환경에 대한 불확실성이 증가되거나 신뢰성을 증가시키기 위해 보수적 회계처리를 유인하는 것으로 분석 될 수 있었다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 회계기준과 준칙 등의 변화에 의한 실무적인 영향뿐만 아니라 향후 유사 연구에 유용한 지침을 제공 할 수 있을 것으로 기대 된다.

비철금속(非鐵金屬)의 생산(生産), 소비(消費), 시세(時勢)의 추이(推移) (The Transition of Production, Consumption and Price of Non-ferrous Metals)

  • 문원주
    • 자원환경지질
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 1969
  • In considering the mining industry, it is necessary to study the production, consumption and price of ore and metals in every country of the world in order to determine the trend of the industry in the present and for the future. This study is necessary especially for exporting domestically produced are which is in excess of domestic consumption and for importing are, or metal where local production does not meet domestic demand. It will be treated of Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, Zn, W, Mo, which are the most important non-ferrous metals, and which greatly affect the mining industry of Korea. The presentation will concern itself only with the free world. About 1, 200 ton of gold are produced annually with little fluctiation in recent years. Most of the gold produced is consumed by advanced countries for industrial uses as well as for producing precious objects. The U.S.A. expends yearly about four times its domestic production and Japan about three times its domestic production for industry and arts. Because of the instability of the currency of the U.S.A., England and France, recently, the price of gold has been $ 41-42 per ounce, whereas the official price is $35.00 per ounce. It will be expected that the official price will be raised in the near future. As for silver, about 6,500 tons are produced annually with no special fluctuation change in recent years. However, the annual consumption is about 14,000 ton, so the supply and demand is extremely unbalanced. The shortage is made up by the sale of the U.S. treasury's reserve stock and the reclaiminig of silver from coins and other scrap. As the Treasury'S reserves will be exhausted in a year or two, the price of silver which is $1. 64 per ounce, will go up drastically in about a year. As for copper, 5,257,000 ton's were mined in 1966. It's production is being increased about 5% annually. However, consumption exceeds production by about 100,000 ton a year. The recent Foreign refinery copper price in the U.S.A is $ 60 per pound. The supply of copper being insufficient to meet international demands, the price will go up and with no prospect of being lowered in the near future even with the slight annual increase in production. About 2,100,000 to 2,200,000 tons of lead are produced annually. Consumption exceeds production by about 50,000-60,000 tons annually. The current price of lead in New York is $ 155 per pound. As the supply of lead is internationally stable, It will be believed that there will be no significant change in its price in the near future. In 1967, 3,926,000 tons of Zinc were produced. There is annual increase of 4-7% in production. The annual consumption exceeds production by 100,000 to 200,000 tons. The current zinc price in the St. Louis market inthe U.S.A. is $ 145 per pound. Even though its supply is stable and sufficient world wide, the consumption rate will increase at a faster pace than before; hence, the price will slowly go up. Tungsten mines yield about 11,000 tons a year. Its production has been relatively constant in the past few years. The amount of its consumption increases slowly world wide, but in the free world· there has been a slight annual decrease. However, since Red China has not been exporting their tungsten to other countries for several months, the price on the London market of S.T.U. of $Wo_3$ has increased to $ 44~46. Should Red China begin to export actively again the price will drop to $ 40~42. In 1967, 56,000 tons of Molybdenum were produced. Production exceeds consumption by 200,000 -30,000 tons annually. The current price in the U.S.A. is $ 1.72 per Mo pound. Since the rate of production in the U.S.A. is on the increase with large amounts of ore reserve, the price of molubdenum should not go up.

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유통기업 매출액의 기업가치 관련성 (The Impact of Sales Revenue on Value Relevance in the Distribution Corporate)

  • 김진회
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - For distribution corporate, the method of recognizing sales revenue may be different depending on the type of distribution transaction. Until the change in accounting standards for revenue recognition was made in 2002, the distribution corporate recognized the full amount of sales of goods regardless of the type of transaction. However, in accordance with accounting standards for revenue recognition, which began to be applied in 2003, distribution corporate differ in sales revenue recognition by transaction type. The Purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of sales revenue on the corporate value after the change of the revenue recognition accounting standards. Research design, data, and methodology - We selected a comprehensive wholesale and retail corporate listed on Korea Exchange. The research model extends the Ohlson(1995) model and regresses whether sales revenue affecting the corporate value is discriminatory value relevance between the corporate affected by changes in accounting standards for revenue recognition and those not. Results - The results of the analysis are as follows. First, The average value of stock price, net asset per share, and earnings per share are all higher than those before the change of accounting standards for revenue recognition. However, the average value of sales per share is lower than that before the change of accounting standards for revenue recognition. Second, the relationship between corporate value and net asset per share, earnings per share and sales per share, the coefficient of net asset per share, earnings per share and sales per share are all statistically significant positive value. Therefore, in explaining corporate value, besides net asset per share and earnings per share, sales per share provides additional information. And the coefficient of interaction variable between accounting standard change and sales per share is a statistically significant positive value. This result indicating that after the change of the revenue recognition accounting standards the usefulness of sales revenue has increased. Conclusions - The change in accounting standards for revenue recognition led to a decrease in distribution corporate sales revenue but the higher the relevance of the corporate value of the sales revenue information. These results shows that the change of accounting standards that reflects the transaction type of retailers was a revision to increase the value relevance of sales revenue in valuation of corporate value.

변화무쌍한 환경에서의 지속성장성 결정요인분석 : 세계 금융위기 시 미국 기업을 중심으로 (Analysis of Sustaining Growth Factors in a Turbulent Business Environment : Case of US Companies Facing the Global Financial Crisis)

  • 이호림;장석권
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제41권1호
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    • pp.55-69
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    • 2016
  • In response to drastic environmental changes, companies have been continuously rebalancing their resources and capabilities to sustain their competitive status or to survive difficult times. The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of sudden environmental changes on the competitive status of a firm and to identify the internal factors that differentiate sustainer and non-sustainer groups. To achieve this goal, we selected 85 representative IT and non-IT companies from the S&P 500 companies and investigated them with respect to the change in their five-year competitive status since the 2008 global financial crisis. As a concrete performance measure, the concept of perceived competitive status (PCS) was introduced, and four distinct PCS categories were identified by using the stock price changes during the selected period. The four distinct PCS categories are "sustaining," "drifting," "deep sunken," and "bouncing back." Discriminant analysis was performed on these four distinct PCS categories. The empirical study conducted showed that revenue and cost efficiency are the most discriminating factors, especially in the economic recovery period. In particular, stronger financial liquidity was observed in high-performing "bouncing back" companies than in the other category companies.

주가지수 선물 수익률과 거래량간 관계에 관한 실증연구 (An Empirical Study on The Relationship between Stock Index Futures Return and Trading Volume)

  • 황성수;유영중
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제5권6호
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    • pp.580-587
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    • 2004
  • 본 논문의 목적은 주가지수 선물시장에서 선물의 가격과 거래량간 관계를 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 선물수익률과 거래량 변화율을 이용하여 거래량과 선물가격간의 관계를 분석하였다. 거래량 변화율과 선물수익률간의 관계를 검증하기에 앞서 각각의 시계열에 대한 안정성 검증을 실시한 결과, 거래량 변화율과 선물수익률은 모두 안정적인 시계열인 것으로 나타났다. VAR모형을 이용한 선물수익률과 거래량 변화율간 관계에 대한 분석결과, 기간별 분석결과에서는 전체기간에서 주가지수 선물수익률이 거래량 변화율을 -3차에서 강하게 선도하는 것으로 나타났으며, 선물시장의 추세에 따른 분석결과는 선물가격의 상승시에는 거래량 변화율이 선물수익률을 선도하는 반면, 선물가격이 하락하는 경우는 선물수익률이 거래량을 선도하는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한, 상승기에 거래량변화율이 선물수익률을 선도하는 정도보다는 하락기에 선물수익률이 거래량 변화율을 선도하는 계수의 크기가 크게 나타나고 있다.

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회계정보의 차별적 요인에 관한 실증연구 (An Empirical Study on Differential factors of Accounting Information)

  • 오성근;김현기
    • 경영과정보연구
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    • 제12권
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    • pp.137-160
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    • 2003
  • The association between accounting earnings and the stock price of an entity is the subject that has been most heavily researched during the past 25 years in accounting literature. Researcher's common finding is that there are positive relationships between accounting earnings and stock prices. However, the explanatory power of accounting earnings which was measured by $R^2$ of regression functions used was rather low. To be connected with these low results, The prior studies propose that there will be additional information, errors in variables. This study investigates empirically determinants of earnings response coefficients(ERCs), which measure the correlation between earnings and stock prices, using earnings level / change, as the dependent variable in the return/earnings regression. Specifically, the thesis tests whether the factors such as earnings persistence, growth, systematic risk, image, information asymmetry and firm size. specially, the determinable variables of ERC are explained in detail. The image / information asymmetry variables are selected to be connected with additional information stand point, The debt / growth variables are selected to be connected with errors in variables. In this study, The sample of firms, listed in Korean Stock Exchange was drawn from the KIS-DATA and was required to meet the following criteria: (1) Annual accounting earnings were available over the 1986-1999 period on the KIS-FAS to allow computation of variables parameter; (2) sufficient return data for estimation of market model parameters were available on the KIS-SMAT month returns: (3) each firm had a fiscal year ending in December throughout the study period. Implementation of these criteria yielded a sample of 1,141 firm-year observation over the 10-year(1990-1999) period. A conventional regression specification would use stock returns(abnormal returns) as a dependent variable and accounting earnings(unexpected earnings) changes interacted with other factors as independent variables. In this study, I examined the relation between other factors and the RRC by using reverse regression. For an empirical test, eight hypotheses(including six lower-hypotheses) were tested. The results of the performed empirical analysis can be summarized as follows; The first, The relationship between persistence of earnings and ERC have significance of each by itself, this result accord with one of the prior studies. The second, The relationship between growth and ERC have not significance. The third, The relationship between image and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact shows that image cost does not effect on market management share, is used to prevent market occupancy decrease. The fourth, The relationship between information asymmetry variable and ERC have significance of each by. The fifth, The relationship between systematic risk$(\beta)$ and ERC have not significance. The sixth, The relationship between debt ratio and ERC have significance of each by itself, but a forecast code doesn't present. This fact is judged that it is due to the effect of financial leverage effect and a tendency of interest.

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연구개발비가 기업경영 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (IPO이전과 이후 코스피기업의 시계열 분석을 중심으로) (An Empirical Study on the IPO Firms' Financial Performance Achieved by R&D Expenditures Using Statistical Models (IPO Affect Firm's Performance after IPO, between KOSPI))

  • 박경주;양동우
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.842-864
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구는 상장기업 311개 업체를 표본으로 하여 독립변수인 상장 이전 연구개발비에 대해 종속 변수인 상장 이후 기업 성과에 미치는 영향을 회귀분석을 통하여 실증 분석하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, IPO 직전년도 연구개발비는 IPO 당해년도 기업 성과인 평균 시가총액/자산은 모든 모형에서 유의한 양(+)의 상관관계를 미치고 있고, 평균 주가에는 모든 모형에서 유의한 결과를 보이지 않았으나 양(+)의 결과를 보였다. 또한 연구개발비 지출에 대한 매출액과 주당 순 자산의 변화는 통계적으로 유의하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, IPO 이전 3년 평균 연구개발비에 대한 IPO 당해포함 이후 3년 평균 기업성과는 평균시가 총액/자산에는 모든 모형에서 유의한 양(+)의 결과를 보였다. 평균 주가에 자산화 된 연구개발비에 따른 평균 주가 변동은 유의한 양(+)의 결과를 보였고 비용 화된 연구개발비의 경우는 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 있다. 이러한 결과는 기업들의 연구개발비에 따른 신호효과(singnal effect)로 인한 주가에 미치는 영향은 단기 혹은 중장기(3-5년)에 긍정적으로 나타나는 것으로 추정되나 원초적으로 기술 수준이 낮은 벤처 및 일반기업 등은 연구개발비가 기업성과에 단기적으로 수익성 제고에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 해석된다.

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효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용 (A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market)

  • 이모세;안현철
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • 지난 10여 년간 딥러닝(Deep Learning)은 다양한 기계학습 알고리즘 중에서 많은 주목을 받아 왔다. 특히 이미지를 인식하고 분류하는데 효과적인 알고리즘으로 알려져 있는 합성곱 신경망(Convolutional Neural Network, CNN)은 여러 분야의 분류 및 예측 문제에 널리 응용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기계학습 연구에서 가장 어려운 예측 문제 중 하나인 주식시장 예측에 합성곱 신경망을 적용하고자 한다. 구체적으로 본 연구에서는 그래프를 입력값으로 사용하여 주식시장의 방향(상승 또는 하락)을 예측하는 이진분류기로써 합성곱 신경망을 적용하였다. 이는 그래프를 보고 주가지수가 오를 것인지 내릴 것인지에 대해 경향을 예측하는 이른바 기술적 분석가를 모방하는 기계학습 알고리즘을 개발하는 과제라 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 크게 다음의 네 단계로 수행된다. 첫 번째 단계에서는 데이터 세트를 5일 단위로 나눈다. 두 번째 단계에서는 5일 단위로 나눈 데이터에 대하여 그래프를 만든다. 세 번째 단계에서는 이전 단계에서 생성된 그래프를 사용하여 학습용과 검증용 데이터 세트를 나누고 합성곱 신경망 분류기를 학습시킨다. 네 번째 단계에서는 검증용 데이터 세트를 사용하여 다른 분류 모형들과 성과를 비교한다. 제안한 모델의 유효성을 검증하기 위해 2009년 1월부터 2017년 2월까지의 약 8년간의 KOSPI200 데이터 2,026건의 실험 데이터를 사용하였다. 실험 데이터 세트는 CCI, 모멘텀, ROC 등 한국 주식시장에서 사용하는 대표적인 기술지표 12개로 구성되었다. 결과적으로 실험 데이터 세트에 합성곱 신경망 알고리즘을 적용하였을 때 로지스틱회귀모형, 단일계층신경망, SVM과 비교하여 제안모형인 CNN이 통계적으로 유의한 수준의 예측 정확도를 나타냈다.