• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.745-760
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• 2021

Prediction of a stock price has been a subject of interest for a long time in financial markets, and thus, many studies have been conducted in various directions. As the efficient market hypothesis introduced in the 1970s acquired supports, it came to be the majority opinion that it was impossible to predict stock prices. However, recent advances in predictive models have led to new attempts to predict the future prices. Here, we summarize past studies on the price prediction by evaluation measures, and predict the direction of stock prices of Samsung Electronics, LG Chem, and NAVER by applying various machine learning models. In addition to widely used technical indicator variables, accounting indicators such as Price Earning Ratio and Price Book-value Ratio and outputs of the hidden Markov Model are used as predictors. From the results of our analysis, we conclude that no models show significantly better accuracy and it is not possible to predict the direction of stock prices with models used. Considering that the models with extra predictors show relatively high test accuracy, we may expect the possibility of a meaningful improvement in prediction accuracy if proper variables that reflect the opinions and sentiments of investors would be utilized.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.467-475
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• 2014

This study was performed to estimate optimum fishing mortality (F) and the age at first capture ($t_c$) for small yellow croaker in Korean waters. We first estimated optimum F and $t_c$ using traditional yield-per-recruit (YPR) analysis, and the results were 0.8/year and 2.5 years old, respectively. However, the individual fish price per unit weight of small yellow croaker in Korea increases dramatically by size. Thus, we developed an alternative method, which is called as production value-per-recruit (PPR) analysis. We developed two types of the PPR analysis, that is, the discrete function and the continuous function method. We estimated optimum F and $t_c$ using the two types of the PPR analysis and compared the results. The optimum F and $t_c$ from the discrete function method, were 0.3/year and 5.0 years old, respectively, while those from the continuous function method were 0.5/year and 3.5 years old, respectively. These PPR estimates were much more conservative for the stock management than the traditional YPR analysis, which can prevent the fish stock from the economic overfishing. As a result, the PPR analysis could be more proper approach for stock assessment in the case that the individual fish price per unit weight increases dramatically by size like small yellow croaker in Korea.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.45-59
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• 2014

Real estate has been the most preferable investment asset since 1980's has begun. Especially the ups and downs of housing price influence significantly on the household and national economy for a digital economy. In this analysis, monthly movement of apartment price of Seoul and its correlation with KOSPI, construction concerned shares, securities concerned shares, interest rate and exchange rate for 320 months(from January, 1987 to August, 2013) are shown. From the analysis, correlation coefficient of the price of apartment in Seoul and KOSPI is 0.8566 which is highly positive while the price of apartment in Seoul and interest rate are shown strong negative correlation which is -0.7846. The rise of stock market does affect the rise of the price of apartments in Seoul, on the contrary, the price goes down when the interest rate goes up.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.629-643
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and efficiency of a policy by comparing and analyzing the impact of the rice market isolation system and production adjustment system (strategic crops direct payment system that induces the cultivation of other crops instead of rice) on rice supply, rice price, and government's financial expenditure. To achieve this purpose, a rice supply and demand forecasting and policy simulation model was developed in this study using a partial equilibrium model limited to a single item (rice), a dynamic equation model system, and a structural equation system that reflects the casual relationship between variables with economic theory. The rice policy analysis model used a recursive model and not a simultaneous equation model. The policy is distinct from that of previous studies, in which changes in government's policy affected the price of rice during harvest and the lean season before the next harvest, and price changes affected the supply and demand of rice according to the modeling, that is, a more specific policy effect analysis. The analysis showed that the market isolation system increased government's financial expenditure compared to the production adjustment system, suggesting low policy financial efficiency, low policy effectiveness on target, and increased harvest price. In particular, the market isolation system temporarily increased the price during harvest season but decreased the price during the lean season due to an increase in ending stock caused by increased production and government stock. Therefore, a decrease in price during the lean season may decrease annual farm-gate prices, and the reverse seasonal amplitude is expected to intensify.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.3-33
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• 2010

While new evidence on international spillover effects has been widely discussed around the globe, the MENA (Middle East and North African) region has received little attention concerning international transmission of stock market movements. In this paper, we discuss international spillover effects between the major developed markets (US, Japan and Germany) and the emerging markets in the MENA region (Turkey and Egypt). While GARCH-type models have mainly been used to investigate international stock market spillovers in much of previous studies, we develop new testing strategies based on discrete wavelet decomposition. The basic finding is that price as well as volatility spillover effects exist from the developed stock markets to the MENA counterparts, although evidence for price spillover to the Egyptian market is rather weak. As for the interdependence of the major MENA stock markets, no spillover effects are found between these markets, while the two MENA markets are somewhat related with each other.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.243-254
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper explores whether overnight returns measured from the last closing price to today's opening price explain the cross-section of stock returns. Design/methodology/approach - This study is conducted using the Korean stock market data from 1998 to 2018, obtained from DataGuide database. The analysis begins with portfolio-level tests, followed by firm-level cross-sectional regressions. Findings - First, when decile portfolios sorted on the daily average of overnight returns in the previous months, the highest decile portfolio exhibits a significant negative risk-adjusted return. This suggests that stocks with higher average overnight returns are temporarily overvalued due to buying pressure from investors. Second, at least 6 months of persistence exists in average overnight returns, which is in line with the results reported by Barber, Odean and Zhu (2009) that investor sentiment persists over several weeks. Finally, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression of expected returns after controlling for a variety of firm characteristic variables such as firm size, book-to-market ratio, market beta, momentum, liquidity, short-term reversal, the slope coefficient for overnight returns remains negative and statistically significant. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the evidence consistently suggests that overnight return is considered as a new priced factor in the cross-section of expected returns. The findings of this paper not only adds to finance literature, but also could be useful to practitioners in making stock investment decision.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.37-50
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• 2021

Purpose - This study aimed to examine the behavior surrounding the Initial Public Offering (IPO) event of firms within the same conglomerate and the impact of under-pricing and Return on Equity(ROE) on a firm's abnormal stock returns. Design/methodology - This study collected data from 166 South Korean Chaebols, consisting of 355 firms distributed as 202 listed on Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and 153 firms listed on Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (KOSDAQ) from 2000 to 2020. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the multiple regression analysis were hired to analyze the data. Findings - First, we found an adverse price reaction of IPO listing in the same chaebol group, and firms with higher under-pricing affect other firms' stock prices more adversely within the conglomerate. Next, we explored a negatively significant relation between ROE and the chaebol firms' stock returns during IPO events. Research implications - The novelty of this study is there are not many empirical studies on the impact of IPO within a conglomerate. So, the findings of this study contribute to the literature for analyzing stock's abnormal returns within a conglomerate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.14 no.24
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• pp.207-219
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• 1991

We studied performance evaluation methods for each cause by using a benchmark and also researched performance measurement models which based on CAPM. In this study, we analyzed the beneficiary certificate of stock type of three large domestic investment trust company. The purpose of this paper is improving the efficiency of investment maintenance and the operating the ability of fund operator by analyzing the contribution of the rate of return on investment and the cause of operating performance. We applied this study to the increasing aspect of stock price(Jan. 1988-April. 1999) as well as the decreasing aspect of stock price(April, 1989-July. 1990).

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.319-326
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• 2022

This study investigates the specific and conclusive reasons why a company issues bonus shares, as well as the rationale and the best timing for bonus share issuance. The study examines Carlsberg's annual reports from 1988 to 2004 to evaluate the factors that influence bonus share payments and timing. Examine supporting evidence from other businesses as well. An analysis of Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad's bonus shares granted from its inception to 2004 found that the announcement of bonus shares would increase the company's share price. As a result, the findings suggest that bonus shares are issued to correct market asymmetry. This research supports the idea that issuing bonus shares would increase the stock price, resulting in increased liquidity. Hence, companies issue bonus shares to boost their liquidity and to convey private positive information to their shareholders. This research adds to the literature by focusing on the timing and key features of bonus share issuing. It implies that dividend policy should be customized to market imperfections. As a result, dividend policies would differ significantly between organizations based on the weights each of the imperfections has on the firm and shareholders.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.535-555
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• 2021

This study empirically analyzes the effects of international oil prices on domestic stock market volatility. The data used for the analysis are 10-minute high-frequency data of the KOSPI index and WTI futures price from January 2, 2015, to July 30, 2021. For using the high-frequency data, a heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) model is employed. The analysis model utilizes the advantages of high frequency data to observe the impact of international oil prices through realized volatility, realized skewness, and kurtosis as well as oil price return. In the estimation, the Box-Cox transformation is applied in consideration of the distribution of realized volatility with high skewness. As a result, it finds that the daily return fluctuation of the WTI price has a statistically significant positive (+) effect on the volatility of the KOSPI return. However, the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of the WTI return do not appear to affect the volatility of the KOSPI return. This result is believed to be because the volatility of the KOSPI return reflects the daily change in the WTI return, but does not reflect the intraday trading behavior of investors.