• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stock Performance

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Predicting Stock Prices Based on Online News Content and Technical Indicators by Combinatorial Analysis Using CNN and LSTM with Self-attention

  • Sang Hyung Jung;Gyo Jung Gu;Dongsung Kim;Jong Woo Kim
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.719-740
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    • 2020
  • The stock market changes continuously as new information emerges, affecting the judgments of investors. Online news articles are valued as a traditional window to inform investors about various information that affects the stock market. This paper proposed new ways to utilize online news articles with technical indicators. The suggested hybrid model consists of three models. First, a self-attention-based convolutional neural network (CNN) model, considered to be better in interpreting the semantics of long texts, uses news content as inputs. Second, a self-attention-based, bi-long short-term memory (bi-LSTM) neural network model for short texts utilizes news titles as inputs. Third, a bi-LSTM model, considered to be better in analyzing context information and time-series models, uses 19 technical indicators as inputs. We used news articles from the previous day and technical indicators from the past seven days to predict the share price of the next day. An experiment was performed with Korean stock market data and news articles from 33 top companies over three years. Through this experiment, our proposed model showed better performance than previous approaches, which have mainly focused on news titles. This paper demonstrated that news titles and content should be treated in different ways for superior stock price prediction.

The Impact of Firms' Environmental, Social, and Governancial Factors for Sustainability on Their Stock Returns and Values (지속가능경영을 위한 기업의 환경적, 사회적, 지배구조적 요인이 주가수익률 및 기업 가치에 미치는 영향)

  • Min, Jae H.;Kim, Bumseok;Ha, Seungyin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2014
  • This study empirically examines the impact of firms' environmental (E), social (S), and governancial (G) factors on their short-term and long-term values. To measure firms' non-financial performance, we use ESG performance grades published by KCGS (Korea Corporate Governance Service). We employ stock log return as the proxy of each firm's short-term value, and Tobin's Q ratio as that of its long-term value. From a series of regression analyses, we find each of the ESG factors generally has a negative impact on stock return while it has a positive impact on the Tobin's Q ratio. These results imply that firms' effort for enhancing their non-financial performance may adversely affect their financial performance in a short term; but in the long-term point of view, firms' values increase through their good images engraved by their respective social, environmental and governancial efforts. In addition, we compare the relative strength of impact among E, S, G, the three non-financial factors on the firms' value measured in Tobin's Q ratio, and find that S (social factor) and G (governancial factor) give statistically significant impact on the firms' value respectively. This result tells us it would be advised to strategically embed CSV (creating shared value) pursuing both of profits and social responsibility in the firms' future agenda. While E (environmental factor) is shown to be an insignificant factor for the firms' value, it should be emphasized as a major concern by all the stakeholders in order to form a sound business ecosystem.

Development of a Continuous Prediction System of Stock Price Based on HTM Network (HTM 기반의 주식가격 연속 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Bae, Sun-Gap;Kim, Sung-Jin;Kang, Hyun-Syug;Bae, Jong-Min
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.1152-1164
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    • 2011
  • Stock price is stream data to change continuously. The characteristics of these data, stock trends according to flow of time intervals may differ. therefore, stock price should be continuously prediction when the price is updated. In this paper, we propose the new prediction system that continuously predicts the stock price according to the predefined time intervals for the selected stock item using HTM model. We first present a preprocessor which normalizes the stock data and passes its result to the stream sensor. We next present a stream sensor which efficiently processes the continuous input. In addition, we devise a storage node which stores the prediction results for each level and passes it to next upper level and present the HTM network for prediction using these nodes. We show experimented our system using the actual stock price and shows its performance.

Dimensions of Corporate Social Responsibility and Market Performance: Evidence from the Indonesia Stock Exchange

  • Sudana, I Made;Sasikirono, Nugroho;Madyan, Muhammad;Pramono, Rifqi
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to examine the relationship between certain dimensions of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) with market performance, measured by Tobin's Q, on companies within various industries in Indonesia. This study disaggregates CSR into 7 dimensions: environment, energy, occupational safety and health, employee, product, community, and general. Samples consisted of 385 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2007-2014. OLS analysis shows that CSR contributes greatly to the formation of market performance of consumer goods, agriculture, and miscellaneous industries. The dimensions of CSR contribute differently to the formation of Q ratios in different industries. We also found that there are differences in the speed of effect of several dimensions of CSR on the formation of market performance; some CSR dimensions give immediate effect while others are lagged.

Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Performance: The impact of the MSCI ESG Ratings on Korean Firms (기업의 사회책임과 재무성과: 한국기업의 MSCI ESG 평가를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jinwook;Chung, Sunggon;Park, Cheongkyu
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.5586-5593
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates how the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance of a firm is associated with its financial performance in the stock market. Prior studies provide mixed evidence on the relation between CSR and financial performance. This study sheds some lights on the positive effect of CSR on firms' financial performance. Using a unique set of data on CSR performance of Korean firms provided by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MCSI), we find that firms' CSR performance is positively associated with their contemporaneous stock returns and Tobin's Q in the Korean market. This finding suggests that stock market participants value firms' CSR activities. This is the first study that provides empirical evidence on the existence of the positive association between the CSR performance of Korean firms and their financial performance using MCSI data which is considered more reliable than the data used in the prior CSR studies in Korea.

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Management performance and managers' cash compensation sensitivity (경영성과와 경영자 현금보상 민감도)

  • Shin, Sung-Wook
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.259-272
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    • 2013
  • This Paper document that managers' cash compensation is more sensitive to negative stock return than positive stock return. Also, this paper analyse that managers' cash compensation react symmetrically to accounting earnings and losses. Since stock returns include both unrealized gains and unrealized losses, we expect managers' cash compensation to be less sensitive to stock returns when returns contain unrealized gains(positive returns) than when returns contain unrealized losses(negative returns). But accounting earnings exclude unrealized gains and include unrealized losses, so managers' cash compensation will react symmetrically to accounting earnings and losses. Analyzing 5,815 firm-year data for 2000-2011, we find that managers' cash compensation reacts asymmetrically to stock retruns whereas managers' cash compensation reacts symmetrically to accounting performance. This finding is consistent with boards of directors seeking to mitigate ex post settling up problem that would arise of managers' cash compensation was equally sensitive to positive and negative stock return.

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Stock Price Prediction by Utilizing Category Neutral Terms: Text Mining Approach (카테고리 중립 단어 활용을 통한 주가 예측 방안: 텍스트 마이닝 활용)

  • Lee, Minsik;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2017
  • Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

THE IMPACT OF EARNINGS AND DIVIDEND INFORMATION ON THE VALUATION CONSEQUENCES OF EXTERNAL FINANCING ANNOUNCEMENTS (손익 및 배당정보가 외부자금조달의 공시효과에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Do-Soung;Lee, Seong-Hyo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.175-193
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    • 1994
  • This paper relates the valuation consequences of common-stock, convertible-debt and straight-debt offering announcements to the issuing firms' stock price performance in periods before the announcements. Similar to previous studies on equity offerings, we find that the announcement effects of security offerings, regardless of offering types, are negatively correlated with the short-term pre-offering stock returns. We show that the informational impact of the preceding earnings and dividend(E/D) announcements account for the previous findings of the negative correlation. We further report that security issues following 'good-news' E/D announcements result in larger stock price declines than issues following 'bad-news' E/D announcements. The finding is consistent with the hypothesis that the E/D information affects the investors' assessments of the firm's cash flow expectations and of the probability of external financing.

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A Study on the Financial Performance of Korean Quality Award Firms in the Stock Market (국내 품질경영상 수상업체들의 주식시장에서의 성과에 관한 연구)

  • 서영호;이현수
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 1999
  • This paper empirically investigates the impact of winning a quality award by investigating the rate of return of a firm's stock in the stock market, and by analyzing the contribution and effectiveness to a firm's competitiveness. It also compares the effect of firms winning MB(Malcolm Baldrige) award with that of firms winning Korean quality awards on the stock market. A comparative method is used to analyze the change of award-winning firms'rate of return and then they are classified by time-series, cross-sectional, firm's size, award agency, and the year of receiving the award. The number of firms employed in this study is 74, however, multiple award-winning firms are included in the analysis, which increased the sample size to 118. Results indicate that Korean quality awards improve an award-winning firms'market value but not as much as the MB award did.

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