• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Programming

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Optimization Methodology for Sales and Operations Planning by Stochastic Programming under Uncertainty : A Case Study in Service Industry (불확실성하에서의 확률적 기법에 의한 판매 및 실행 계획 최적화 방법론 : 서비스 산업)

  • Hwang, Seon Min;Song, Sang Hwa
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.

Multi-Objective Stochastic Optimization in Water Resources System

  • Shim, Soon Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 1983
  • The purpose of this paper is to present a method of multi-objective, stochastic optimization in water resources system which investigates the development of potential non-normal deterministic equivalents for subsequent use in multiobjective stochastic programming methods, Given probability statement involving a function of several random variables, it is often possible to obtain a deterministic equivalent of it that does not include any orginal random variables. A Stochastic trade-off technique-MSTOT is suggested to help a decision maker achieve satisfactory levels for several objective functions. This makes use of deterministic equivalents to handle random variables in the objective functions. The emphasis is in the development of non-normal deterministic equivalents for use in multiobjective stochastic techniques.

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A Decomposition Method for Two stage Stochstic Programming with Block Diagonal Structure (블록 대각 구조를 지닌 2단계 확률계획법의 분해원리)

  • 김태호;박순달
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.9-13
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    • 1985
  • This paper develops a decomposition method for stochastic programming with a block diagonal structure. Here we assume that the right-hand side random vector of each subproblem is differente each other. We first, transform this problem into a master problem, and subproblems in a similar way to Dantizig-Wolfe's Decomposition Princeple, and then solve this master problem by solving subproblems. When we solve a subproblem, we first transform this subproblem to a Deterministic Equivalent Programming (DEF). The form of DEF depends on the type of the random vector of the subproblem. We found the subproblem with finite discrete random vector can be transformed into alinear programming, that with continuous random vector into a convex quadratic programming, and that with random vector of unknown distribution and known mean and variance into a convex nonlinear programming, but the master problem is always a linear programming.

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Recent Reseach in Simulation Optimization

  • 이영해
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1994.10a
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    • pp.1-2
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    • 1994
  • With the prevalence of computers in modern organizations, simulation is receiving more atention as an effectvie decision -making tool. Simualtion is a computer-based numerical technique which uses mathmatical and logical models to approximate the behaviror of a real-world system. However, iptimization of synamic stochastic systems often defy analytical and algorithmic soluions. Although a simulation approach is often free fo the liminting assumption s of mathematical modeling, cost and time consiceration s make simulation the henayst's last resort. Therefore, whenever possible, analytical and algorithmica solutions are favored over simulation. This paper discussed the issues and procedrues for using simulation as a tool for optimization of stochastic complex systems that are dmodeled by computer simulation . Its emphasis is mostly on issues that are speicific to simulation optimization instead of consentrating on the general optimizationand mathematical programming techniques . A simulation optimization problem is an optimization problem where the objective function. constraints, or both are response that can only be evauated by computer simulation. As such, these functions are only implicit functions of decision parameters of the system, and often stochastic in nature as well. Most of optimization techniqes can be classified as single or multiple-resoneses techniques . The optimization of single response functins has been researched extensively and consists of many techniques. In the single response category, these strategies are gradient based search techniques, stochastic approximate techniques, response surface techniques, and heuristic search techniques. In the multiple response categroy, there are basically five distinct strategies for treating the responses and finding the optimum solution. These strategies are graphica techniqes, direct search techniques, constrained optimization techniques, unconstrained optimization techniques, and goal programming techniques. The choice of theprocedreu to employ in simulation optimization depends on the analyst and the problem to be solved. For many practival and industrial optimization problems where some or all of the system components are stochastic, the objective functions cannot be represented analytically. Therefore, modeling by computersimulation is one of the most effective means of studying such complex systems. In this paper, after discussion of simulation optmization techniques, the applications of above techniques will be presented in the modeling process of many flexible manufacturing systems.

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A Two-Stage Stochastic Approach to the Artillery Fire Sequencing Problem (2단계 추계학적 야전 포병 사격 순서 결정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Jo, Jae-Young
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.28-44
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    • 2005
  • The previous studies approach the field artillery fire scheduling problem as deterministic and do not explicitly include information on the potential scenario changes. Unfortunately, the effort used to optimize fire sequences and reduce the total time of engagement is often inefficient as the collected military intelligence changes. Instead of modeling the fire sequencing problem as deterministic model, we consider a stochastic artillery fire scheduling model and devise a solution methodology to integrate possible enemy attack scenarios in the evaluation of artillery fire sequences. The goal is to use that information to find robust solutions that withstand disruptions in a better way, Such an approach is important because we can proactively consider the effects of certain unique scheduling decisions. By identifying more robust schedules, cascading delay effects will be minimized. In this paper we describe our stochastic model for the field artillery fire sequencing problem and offer revised robust stochastic model which considers worst scenario first. The robust stochastic model makes the solution more stable than the general two-stage stochastic model and also reduces the computational cost dramatically. We present computational results demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed method by EVPI, VSS, and Variances.

Determination of Secondary Reserve Requirement Through Interaction-dependent Clearance Between Ex-ante and Ex-post

  • Kim, Sun Kyo;Park, Joon-Hyung;Yoon, Yong Tae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2014
  • This paper discusses a method for the determination of frequency control reserve requirement with consideration of the interaction between ex-ante planning and real-time balancing. In proposed method, we consider the fact that the delivered energy for tertiary control reserve is determined based on required capacity for secondary control reserve and the expected amount of load errors. Uncertain load errors are derived by Brownian motion, an optimization method is suggested using a stochastic programming. In a short, we propose an interactive dependent method for determining secondary control reserve requirement based on the principle that it satisfies to minimize the total cost. As a result, this paper provides will analyze for an example model to demonstrate the capabilities of the method.

A Study on Optimal Economic Operation of Hydro-reservoir System by Stochastic Dynamic Programming with Weekly Interval (주간 단위로한 확률론적 년간 최적 저수지 경제 운용에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Gil-Yong;Kim, Yeong-Tae;Han, Byeong-Yul
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1987.11a
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    • pp.106-108
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    • 1987
  • Until now, inflow has been handled an independent log-normal random variable in the problem of planning the long-term operation of a multi-reservoir hydrothermal electric power generation system. This paper introduces the detail study for making rule curve by applying weekly time interval for handling inflows. The hydro system model consists of a set of reservoirs and ponds. Thermal units are modeld by one equivalent thermal unit. Objective is minimizing the total cost that the summation of the fuel cost of equivalent thermal unit at each time interval. For optimization, stochastic dynamic programming(SDP) algorithm using successive approximations is used.

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