• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.71-79
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• 2011

Traditionally, a dynamic network model is considered as a tool for solving real-time traffic problems. One of useful and practical ways of using such models is to use it to produce and disseminate forecast travel time information so that the travelers can switch their routes from congested to less-congested or uncongested, which can enhance the performance of the network. This approach seems to be promising when the traffic congestion is severe, especially when sudden incidents happen. A consideration that should be given in implementing this method is that travel time information may affect the future traffic condition itself, creating undesirable side effects such as the over-reaction problem. Furthermore incorrect forecast travel time can make the information unreliable. In this paper, a network-wide travel time prediction model under incidents is developed. The model assumes that all drivers have access to detailed traffic information through personalized in-vehicle devices such as car navigation systems. Drivers are assumed to make their own travel choice based on the travel time information provided. A route-based stochastic variational inequality is formulated, which is used as a basic model for the travel time prediction. A diversion function is introduced to account for the motorists' willingness to divert. An inverse function of the diversion curve is derived to develop a variational inequality formulation for the travel time prediction model. Computational results illustrate the characteristics of the proposed model.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.305-312
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• 2018

The crops cultivated and consumed in Korea require specific climate conditions corresponding to their own growth characteristics. This study aims to analyze the relationship between climate change and agricultural productivity. According to growing concern about climate change internationally, many agricultural studies are developing technology to prevent damage from climate change. Before developing technology, we should figure out what kind of crop gets huge damage and how much caused by climate change. In the context of agricultural economics, we can define the reduction of agricultural product yield as a decline in productivity. As a result, this study analyzes the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity using Stochastic Frontier Analysis model. There are several kinds of climate change phenomena that increase the inefficiency of production. In other words, there are several kinds of crops that get negative influence by climate change. The result of this study can be used as basic guideline for producers to prepare for changing weather prior to developing disaster tolerance technology coping actively with special weather report.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.481-487
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• 2023

In this study, we analyzed the incidence of side effects of photoneutron dose according to the number of beams during intensity-modulated radiotherapy of prostate cancer using 15 MV. The radiation treatment plan design for intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer was established with a prescription dose of 220 cGy per dose and a total of 7260 cGy for 33 treatments. The linear accelerator used in the experiment is Varian's True Beam STx (Varian, USA). Photoneutron dose was generated by using 15 MV energy in the planning target volume (PTV). The treatment plan was designed with IMRT 5, 7, and 9 portals using the Eclipse System (Varian Ver 10.0, USA). An optically stimulated luminescence albedo neutron dosimeter (Landauer Inc., USA) was used to measure photoneutron dose. IMRT 5 portals, 1.7 per 1,000, 7 portals, 1.8 per 1,000, 9 portals, 2.0 per 1,000 were calculated as the probability of experiencing side effects on the thyroid gland due to photoneutron dose. This study studies the risk of secondary radiation exposure dose that can occur during intensity-modulated radiation therapy, and it is considered that it will be used as useful data in relation to stochastic effects in the future.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.54 no.3
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• pp.227-241
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• 2017

In this study, a Volterra system for the variations of metacentric height (GM) in waves is employed to simulate the parametric roll phenomena of ships in head sea condition. Using the present Volterra system, the transfer function of each harmonic component in the GM variation is computed for different ship models, including mathematical models and a real containership, and the results are validated through the comparison with the values obtained using the direct calculations based on a weakly nonlinear time-domain method. Then, a semi-analytic approach employing a 1-degree of freedom equation for roll motion is developed to simulate the parametric roll motions in irregular waves. In the derived approach, the nonlinear and time-varying restoring forces in the waves are approximated using the Volterra system. Through simulations of the parametric roll for different sea states, the effects of the 1st and 2nd-order harmonic components of the variations in the occurrence and amplitude of the parametric roll motions are investigated. Because of the strong nonlinearities in the phenomena, a stochastic analysis is conducted to examine the statistical properties of the roll motions in consideration of the sensitivities and uncertainties in the computations.

• The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.350-355
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• 2017

UWB (Ultra Wide Band) refers to a system with a bandwidth of over 500 MHz or a bandwidth of 20% of the center frequency. It is robust against channel fading and has a wide signal bandwidth. Using the IR-UWB based ranging system, it is possible to obtain decimeter-level ranging accuracy. Furthermore, IR-UWB system enables acquisition over glass or cement with high resolution. In recent years, IR-UWB-based ranging chipsets have become cheap and popular, and it has become possible to implement positioning systems of several tens of centimeters. The system can be configured as one-way ranging (OWR) positioning system for fast ranging and TWR (two-way ranging) positioning system for cheap and robust ranging. On the other hand, the ranging based positioning system has a limitation on the number of terminals for localization because it takes time to perform a communication procedure to perform ranging. To overcome this problem, code multiplexing and channel multiplexing are performed. However, errors occur in measurement due to interference between channels and code, multipath, and so on. The measurement filtering is used to reduce the measurement error, but more fundamentally, techniques for removing these measurements should be studied. First, the TWR based positioning was analyzed from a stochastic point of view and the effects of outlier measurements were summarized. The positioning algorithm for analytically identifying and removing single outlier is summarized and extended to three dimensions. Through the simulation, we have verified the algorithm to detect and remove single outliers.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1334-1341
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• 2016

In recent years, the importance of managing software defects in the implementation stage has emerged because of the rapid development and wide-range usage of intelligent smart devices. Even if not a few studies have been conducted on the prediction models for software defects, their outcomes have not been widely shared. This paper proposes an efficient probabilistic management model of software metrics based on the Bayesian network, to overcome limits such as binary defect prediction models. We expect the proposed model to configure the Bayesian network by taking advantage of various software metrics, which can help in identifying improvements for refactoring. Once the source code has improved through code refactoring, the measured related metric values will also change. The proposed model presents probability values reflecting the effects after defect removal, which can be achieved by improving metrics through refactoring. This model could cope with the conclusive binary predictions, and consequently secure flexibilities on decision making, using indeterminate probability values.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.339-344
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• 2018

Humans received an exposure dose of 2.4 mSv of natural radiation per year, of which the contribution of spacecraft accounts for about 75%. The crew of the aircraft has increased radiation exposure doses based on cosmic radiation safety management regulations There is no reference to air passengers. Therefore, in this study, we measured the radiation exposure dose received in the sky at high altitude during flight, and tried to compare the radiation exposure dose received by ordinary people during flight. We selected 20 sample specimens, including major tourist spots and the capital by continent with direct flights from Incheon International Airport. Using the CARI-6/6M model and the NAIRAS model, which are cosmic radiation prediction models provided at the National Radio Research Institute, we measured the cosmic radiation exposure dose by the selected flight and departure/arrival place. In the case of exposure dose, Beijing was the lowest at $2.87{\mu}Sv$ (NAIRAS) and $2.05{\mu}Sv$ (CARI - 6/6M), New York had the highest at $146.45{\mu}Sv$ (NAIRAS) and $79.42{\mu}Sv$ (CARI - 6/6M). We found that the route using Arctic routes at the same time and distance will receive more exposure dose than other paths. While the dose of cosmic radiation to be received during flight does not have a decisive influence on the human body, because of the greater risk of stochastic effects in the case of frequent flights and in children with high radiation sensitivity Institutional regulation should be prepared for this.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.83-91
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• 2004

Nonlinear system responses of an impact system under randomly perturbed harmonic excitations are predicted in the probability domain by adopting the semi-analytical procedure previously developed. The semi-analytical procedure is obtained by solving the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic differential equation of the given impact system by utilizing the path-integral solution. The evolutionary joint probability density functions are generated by using the method, and the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic response behaviors of the system are examined. Noise effects on the responses are also examined. It Is found that the semi-analytical method can provides the accurate information of the responses via the joint probability functions for the impact system. It is found that the noises weaken and eventually terminate the chaos in the responses, but it is also found that the chaotic signatures reside in the presence of the external noise with relatively high intensity. The joint probability density function shows that the ensemble of the system responses are weakly stationary.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.335-350
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• 2018

This paper presents numerical modelling, modal testing, finite element model updating, linear and nonlinear earthquake behavior of a reinforced concrete building model. A 1/2 geometrically scale, two-storey, reinforced concrete frame model with raft base were constructed, tested and analyzed. Modal testing on the model using ambient vibrations is performed to illustrate the dynamic characteristics experimentally. Finite element model of the structure is developed by ANSYS software and dynamic characteristics such as natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios are calculated numerically. The enhanced frequency domain decomposition method and the stochastic subspace identification method are used for identifying dynamic characteristics experimentally and such values are used to update the finite element models. Different parameters of the model are calibrated using manual tuning process to minimize the differences between the numerically calculated and experimentally measured dynamic characteristics. The maximum difference between the measured and numerically calculated frequencies is reduced from 28.47% to 4.75% with the model updating. To determine the effects of the finite element model updating on the earthquake behavior, linear and nonlinear earthquake analyses are performed using 1992 Erzincan earthquake record, before and after model updating. After model updating, the maximum differences in the displacements and stresses were obtained as 29% and 25% for the linear earthquake analysis and 28% and 47% for the nonlinear earthquake analysis compared with that obtained from initial earthquake results before model updating. These differences state that finite element model updating provides a significant influence on linear and especially nonlinear earthquake behavior of buildings.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 2018

This study empirically examines simple methodology to quantify the risk resulted from the uncertainty of bunker price and foreign exchange rate, which cause main resources of the cost in shipping industry during the periods between $1^{st}$ of January 2010 and $31^{st}$ of January 2018. To shed light on the risk measurement in cash flows we tested GBM(Geometric Brownian Motion) frameworks such as the model with conditional heteroskedasticity and jump diffusion process. The main contribution based on empirical results are summarized as following three: first, the risk analysis, which is dependent on a single variable such as freight yield, is extended to analyze the effects of multiple factors such as bunker price and exchange rate return volatility. Second, at the individual firm level, the need for risk management in bunker price and exchange rate is presented as cash flow. Finally, based on the scale of the risk presented by the analysis results, the shipping companies are required that there is a need to consider what is appropriate as a means of risk management.