• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical estimation

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Genetic Correlation of Carcass and Meat Production Traits with Hormones and Metabolic Components in Hawoo (가축의 혈청 호르몬 및 대사물질 농도와 도체 및 산육형질에 대한 유전상관에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon G. J.;Juong H. Y.;Cho K. H.;Kim M. J.;Kim I. C.;Kim J. B.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.255-269
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    • 2005
  • This study was aimed to investigate genetic relationships, variables, and correlations between economic traits and metabolic materials in serum components according to bleeding periods and breeding locations for the castrated and not castrated Hanwoo cattle at National Livestock Research Institute. Analysis of variance for serum hormones and metabolic materials showed significant differences by breeding locations except for testosterone and globulin. Statistical differences for serum components were detected by birth year except for cortisol, total protein, globulin and creatinine, and by castration except for total protein and BUN. All the serum components were tended to have sire effects except for testosterone resulting in some degree of additive gene actions. Breeding locations showed statistical significances for carcass weight and back fat thickness, but not in carcass rate, KPH, live weight and transportation weight loss. Effects of breeding locations and castration were significant for all weight measurement periods except for 9 month and 6 month, respectively. A significant sire effect was observed in all weight measurements. Least squared means for concentration of serum components by breeding year, season and castration were not significant. High concentration of cortisol, creatinine and triglyceride and low concentration of IGF-1 and glucose were detected in castrated cattle. Concentration of testosterone with castrated cattle was $5.2\%$ corresponding to non castrated cattle. Estimation of heritabilities of serum components using a sire model with restricted maximum likelihood were ranged 0.07 to 0.58. High heritabilities were estimated for total protein, albumin, globulin, cortisol, creatinine and BUN were 0.53, 0.54, 0.42, 0.45, 0.58 and 0.54, respectively. Low heritabilities were estimated fur calcium, testosterone and IGF-1 for 0.07, 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Heritabilities for carcass weight, back fat thickness, meat yield index, KPH, and IMF were estimated as 0.39, 0.45, 0.30 0.13, and 0.93. Heritabilities of weights on 18, 12, 9, 6, and 24 month were estimated as 0.78, 0.76, 0.62, 0.58 and 0.58. Estimated heritabilities for average daily gain on 6${\~}$2, 12${\~}$18, and 18${\~}$24 month were 0.80, 0.75 and 0.19, respectively.

A Study on the Factors Causing Analytical Errors through the Estimation of Uncertainty for Cadmium and Lead Analysis in Tomato Paste (불확도 추정을 통한 토마토 페이스트에서 카드뮴 및 납 분석의 오차 발생 요인 규명)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Young-Jun;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Lee, Ji-Ho;Kim, Min-Ji;Kang, Dae-Won;Im, Geon-Jae;Hong, Moo-Ki;Shin, Young-Jae;Kim, Won-Il
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.169-178
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    • 2011
  • BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the measurement uncertainty associated with determination of cadmium and lead from tomato paste by ICP/MS. The sources of measurement uncertainty (i.e. sample weight, final volume, standard weight, purity, molecular weight, working standard solution, calibration curve, recovery and repeatability) in associated with the analysis of cadmium and lead were evaluated. METHODS AND RESULTS: The guide to the expression of uncertainty was used for the GUM (Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) and Draft EURACHEM/CITAC (EURACHEM: A network of organization for analytical chemistry in Europe/Co-Operation on International Traceability in Analytical Chemistry) Guide with mathematical calculation and statistical analysis. The uncertainty components were evaluated by either Type A or Type B methods and the combined standard uncertainty were calculated by statistical analysis using several factors. Expected uncertainty of cadmium and lead was $0.106{\pm}0.015$ mg/kg (k=2.09) and $0.302{\pm}0.029$ mg/kg (k=2.16), on basis of 95% confidence of Certified Reference Material (CRM) which was within certification range of $0.112{\pm}0.007$ mg/kg for cadmium (k=2.03) and $0.316{\pm}0.021$ mg/kg for lead (k=2.01), respectively. CONCLUSION(s): The most influential components in the uncertainty of heavy metals analysis were confirmed as recovery, standard calibration curve and standard solution were identified as the most influential components causing uncertainty of heavy metal analysis. Therefore, more careful consideration is required in these steps to reduce uncertainty of heavy metals analysis in tomato paste.

Agroclimatology of North Korea for Paddy Rice Cultivation: Preliminary Results from a Simulation Experiment (생육모의에 의한 북한지방 시ㆍ군별 벼 재배기후 예비분석)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Lee Kwang-Hoe
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.47-61
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    • 2000
  • Agroclimatic zoning was done for paddy rice culture in North Korea based on a simulation experiment. Daily weather data for the experiment were generated by 3 steps consisting of spatial interpolation based on topoclimatological relationships, zonal summarization of grid cell values, and conversion of monthly climate data to daily weather data. Regression models for monthly climatological temperature estimation were derived from a statistical procedure using monthly averages of 51 standard weather stations in South and North Korea (1981-1994) and their spatial variables such as latitude, altitude, distance from the coast, sloping angle, and aspect-dependent field of view (openness). Selected models (0.4 to 1.6$^{\circ}C$ RMSE) were applied to the generation of monthly temperature surface over the entire North Korean territory on 1 km$\times$l km grid spacing. Monthly precipitation data were prepared by a procedure described in Yun (2000). Solar radiation data for 27 North Korean stations were reproduced by applying a relationship found in South Korea ([Solar Radiation, MJ m$^{-2}$ day$^{-1}$ ] =0.344 + 0.4756 [Extraterrestrial Solar Irradiance) + 0.0299 [Openness toward south, 0 - 255) - 1.307 [Cloud amount, 0 - 10) - 0.01 [Relative humidity, %), $r^2$=0.92, RMSE = 0.95 ). Monthly solar irradiance data of 27 points calculated from the reproduced data set were converted to 1 km$\times$1 km grid data by inverse distance weighted interpolation. The grid cell values of monthly temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation were summed up to represent corresponding county, which will serve as a land unit for the growth simulation. Finally, we randomly generated daily maximum and minimum temperature, solar irradiance and precipitation data for 30 years from the monthly climatic data for each county based on a statistical method suggested by Pickering et a1. (1994). CERES-rice, a rice growth simulation model, was tuned to accommodate agronomic characteristics of major North Korean cultivars based on observed phenological and yield data at two sites in South Korea during 1995~1998. Daily weather data were fed into the model to simulate the crop status at 183 counties in North Korea for 30 years. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to score the suitability of the county for paddy rice culture.

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Synthetic Application of Seismic Piezo-cone Penetration Test for Evaluating Shear Wave Velocity in Korean Soil Deposits (국내 퇴적 지반의 전단파 속도 평가를 위한 탄성파 피에조콘 관입 시험의 종합적 활용)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk;Kim, Hong-Jong;Jung, Jong-Hong;Jung, Gyung-Ja
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.207-224
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    • 2006
  • It has been widely known that the seismic piezo-cone penetration test (SCPTu) is one of the most useful techniques for investigating the geotechnical characteristics such as static and dynamic soil properties. As practical applications in Korea, SCPTu was carried out at two sites in Busan and four sites in Incheon, which are mainly composed of alluvial or marine soil deposits. From the SCPTu waveform data obtained from the testing sites, the first arrival times of shear waves and the corresponding time differences with depth were determined using the cross-over method, and the shear wave velocity $(V_S)$ profiles with depth were derived based on the refracted ray path method based on Snell's law. Comparing the determined $V_S$ profile with the cone tip resistance $(q_t)$ profile, both trends of profiles with depth were similar. For the application of the conventional CPTu to earthquake engineering practices, the correlations between $V_S$ and CPTu data were deduced based on the SCPTu results. For the empirical evaluation of $V_S$ for all soils together with clays and sands which are classified unambiguously in this study by the soil behavior type classification index $(I_C)$, the authors suggested the $V_S-CPTu$ data correlations expressed as a function of four parameters, $q_t,\;f_s,\;\sigma'_{v0}$ and $B_q$, determined by multiple statistical regression modeling. Despite the incompatible strain levels of the downhole seismic test during SCPTu and the conventional CPTu, it is shown that the $V_S-CPTu$ data correlations for all soils, clays and sands suggested in this study is applicable to the preliminary estimation of $V_S$ for the soil deposits at a part in Korea and is more reliable than the previous correlations proposed by other researchers.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Climate Change Impact on Korean Forest and Forest Management Strategies (기후변화가 한국 산림에 미치는 영향과 관리 전략)

  • Kim, Moonil;Yoo, Somin;Kim, Nahui;Lee, Wona;Ham, Boyoung;Song, Cholho;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.413-425
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    • 2017
  • This manuscript describes the relationship between climate change and forest growth, forest species, carbon stocks, and tree mortality. 1) In the aspect of forest growth, the growth of major coniferous species, including Pinus densiflora, had a negative correlation with temperature. On the other hand, major deciduous oak species, including Quercus variabilis and Quercus mongolica, had a positive correlation with temperature. 2) When considered in the aspect of the forest species distribution, various models commonly showed a decrease in the distribution of coniferous species and an increase in oak species due to climate change in the medium to long term. 3) From the carbon stock perspective, there was a difference in the estimation according to the status of forest management. Most of Korean forests will mature to become over-matured forest after year 2030 and are estimated to produce approximately 410 million ton forest biomass until 2090 with the current cutting regulations for sustainable forest management announced by the Korean Forest Service. 4) In the forest mortality, the mortality rate of the major coniferous species showed a clear tendency to increase higher temperatures while it decreased for the oak species with no verification of statistical significance. Moreover, the mortality of the subalpine coniferous species was projected to progress rapidly. considering the overall impacts described above, there should be a management strategy for coniferous species that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, a sustainable forest plan in the aspect of ecosystem services, carbon sequestration and storage, which is linked to global issues such as Sustainable Development Goals, ecosystem services and negative emission.

Genetic Parameter Estimation of Carcass Traits of Hanwoo Steers (한우 거세우의 도체형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Hwang, Jeong-Mi;Kim, Sidong;Choy, Yun-Ho;Yoon, Ho-Baek;Park, Cheol-Jin
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.613-620
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    • 2008
  • The genetic parameters used in National Hanwoo Genetic Evaluation(NHGE) were needed to be monitored and updated periodically for accounting any possible changes in population parameters due to selection and environmental changes. Genetic parameters were estimated with single and two-trait models with MTDFREML package using 2,791 carcass records of steers collected from Hanwoo Progeny Test Program(HPTP). Single and two-trait models gave similar parameter estimates for all traits. The heritability estimates from single and two-trait models for carcass weight(CW), dressing percentage(DP), eye muscle area(EMA), back fat thickness(BFT) and marbling score(MS) were 0.30, 0.30, 0.37, 0.44 and 0.44, respectively. The heritability estimates for all the traits except BFT were slightly lower than those used in NHGE but seemed to be within the acceptable ranges. However, further monitoring is needed because the data might not have fully reflected the changes such as carcass grading standards in performance testing program. In order to shift statistical model of NHGE from single trait model to multiple-trait model, the genetic correlations between carcass traits were estimated with pairwise two-trait models. The genetic correlation coefficients between CW and DP, between CW and EMA, between CW and BFT and between CW and MS were 0.44, 0.63, 0.17 and 0.06, respectively. Those between DP and EMA, between DP and BFT and between DP and MS were 0.29, 0.40 and 0.20. Those between EMA and BFT and between EMA and MS were -0.24 and 0.15, respectively. The genetic correlation coefficient between BFT and MS was 0.03.

Estimation of the Superelevation Safety Factor Considering Operating Speed at 3-Dimensional Alignment (입체선형의 주행속도를 고려한 편경사 안전율 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Tae-Hoon;Kim, Joong-Hyo;Park, Je-Jin;Park, Ju-Won;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.159-163
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    • 2005
  • The propriety between suppliers and demanders in geometric design is very important. Although the final purpose of constructing roads is to concern about the driver s comfort, unfortunately, it has not been considered so far. We've considered the regularity and quickness in considering driver's comfort but there should be considered the safety for the accident as well. If drivers are appeared to be more speeding than designer's intention, there will be needed some supplements to increase the safety rate for the roads. Even if both an upward and downward section are supposed to exist at the same time for solid geometry of the roads like this, it is true that the recent design for the 3-D solid geometry section has been done as flat 2-D and the minimum plane curve radius and the maximum cant have been decided just by calculating without considering operating speed between an upward and downward section at the same point. In this investigation, thus, I'd like to calculate the safety of the cant by considering the speed features of the solid geometry for the first lane of four lane rural roads. To begin with, we investigated the driving speed of the car, which is not been influenced by a preceding car to analyze the influence of the geometrical structure by using Nc-97. Secondly, we statistically analyzed the driving features of the solid geometry after comparing the 6 sections, that is, measuring the driving speed feature at 12 points and combining the influence of the vertical geometry and plane geometry to the driving speed of the plane curve which was researched before. Finally, we estimated the value of cant which considers the driving speed not by using it which has applied uniformly without considering it properly, though there were some differences between a designed speed and driving speed through the result of the basic statistical analysis but by introducing the new safety rate rule, a notion of ${\alpha}$. As a result of the research, we could see the driving features of the car and suggest the safety rate which considers these. For considering the maximum cant, if we apply the safety rate, the result of this experiment, which considers 3-D solid geometry, there'll be the improvement of the driver's safety for designing roads. In addition, after collecting and analyzing the data for the road sections which have various geometrical structures by expanding this experiment it is considered that there should be developed the models which considers 3-D solid geometry.

Is Skeletonized Internal Mammary Artery Harvesting better than Pedicled Harvesting in Respect of the Sternal Blood Flow\ulcorner: An Estimation Using Bone Scan (내유동맥의 골격화 채취는 흉골로의 혈류 감소 측면에서 과연 유리한가 \ulcorner: 골주사를 이용한 평가)

  • 손국희;김영삼;김정택;윤용한;김광호;최원식;백완기
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.511-516
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    • 2004
  • Background: One of the theoretical advantages of skeletonized internal mammary artery harvesting in coronary artery bypass surgery is to minimize the interruption of the sternal blood flow inevitably accompanied by internal mammary harvesting. A study using bone scan is designed to determine the effects of internal mammary artery harvesting technique on the sternal blood flow. Material and Method: From April 2002 to March 2003, 27 patients out of 48 patients who underwent the isolated coronary bypass surgery were enrolled into the study. The enrolled patients underwent bone scan in the preoperative period and postoperative period respectively. Bilateral internal mammary artery was used in 8 patients (BIMA group) and single left internal mammary artery in 19 patients (LIMA group). The patients in LIMA group were divided into two groups: LlMA_skel group, in whom left internal mammary artery was harvested in skeletonized fashion (n=12), and LlMA_ped group, in whom left internal mammary artery was harvested in pedicled fashion (n=7). After the bone scan, the region of interest (ROI) was created on the left of the sternum and the mirror image with the same pixel numbers was placed on the right half of the sternum. The mean counts per pixel on the left side of the sternum was compared with those on the right side and expressed as left to right ratio (L/R ratio). Result: In LIMA group, the L/R ratio decreased from 94.6$\pm$4.1% to 87.9$\pm$6.9% (p=0.003) after the operation as compared to BIMA group, in which no change of the L/R ratio was observed. The changed of the L/R ratio in LlMA_skel group and LlMA_ped group were from 95.3$\pm$4.2% to 88.3$\pm$7.7% and from 93.4$\pm$3.9% to 87.4$\pm$5.8% respectively. The % changes in L/R ratio were -7.44 $\pm$7.08 in LIMA_skel group and -6.17$\pm$9.08 in LiMA_ped group, which did not reach the statistical difference. Conclusion: Ipsilateral sternal blood flow is interrupted by internal mammary artery harvesting as evidenced by the decrease in L/R ratio after left internal mammary artery harvesting irrespective of the harvesting techniques. Skeletonized harvesting did not show superiority in respect to sternal blood flow as compared to pedicled harvesting.

Estimation of the Accuracy of Genomic Breeding Value in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우의 유전체 육종가의 정확도 추정)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Seung Hwan;Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Choi, You Lim;Cho, Yong Min;Kim, Nae Soo;Lee, Jung Jae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate the Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) using Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) method in Hanwoo (Korean native cattle) population. The result is expected to adapt genomic selection onto the national Hanwoo evaluation system. Carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BT), and marbling score (MS) were investigated in 552 Hanwoo progeny-tested steers at Livestock Improvement Main Center. Animals were genotyped with Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777K SNPs). For statistical analysis, Genetic Relationship Matrix (GRM) was formulated on the basis of genotypes and the accuracy of GEBV was estimated with 10-fold Cross-validation method. The accuracies estimated with cross-validation method were between 0.915~0.957. In 534 progeny-tested steers, the maximum difference of GEBV accuracy compared to conventional EBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were 9.56%, 5.78%, 5.78%, and 4.18% respectively. In 3,674 pedigree traced bulls, maximum increased difference of GEBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were increased as 13.54%, 6.50%, 6.50%, and 4.31% respectively. This showed that the implementation of genomic pre-selection for candidate calves to test on meat production traits could improve the genetic gain by increasing accuracy and reducing generation interval in Hanwoo genetic evaluation system to select proven bulls.