• 제목/요약/키워드: Statistical Value of Life

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선택실험법을 활용한 통계적 생명가치의 추정 (A Choice Experiment Approach to the Value of a Statistical Life)

  • 전호철
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.247-270
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    • 2020
  • 통계적 생명가치는 환경정책의 편익 산정에 있어 매우 중요한 역할을 한다. 예를 들어 대기오염물질의 감소에 따른 건강 편익의 최종적인 화폐가치화 단위로 활용되며 이는 비용편익 분석의 기초가 된다. 통계적 생명가치는 사망위험 감소를 위해 사회의 구성원이 지불하고자 하는 화폐적 가치로 정의될 수 있다 따라서 통계적 생명가치는 각 사회를 구성하고 있는 구성원의 특성에 따라 결정된다. 본 연구는 웹 설문조사를 통해 수집된 총 3,081명의 응답자를 질문의 형태에 따라 두 개의 표본으로 분리하여 선택실험법을 적용하였다. 추정결과 총 1,528명의 표본 집단의 자료를 통해 도출된 약 13억 원의 통계적 생명가치가 가장 적절한 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 국내 선행연구를 활용한 메타분석의 결과와 유사하다. 또한 응답자들은 사망위험을 감소시키기 위해 정부의 정책비용에 대한 지불보다는 개인 차원의 예방에 비용을 지불하는 것을 선호하는 것으로 나타났다.

우리나라 공공건물의 내용연수 추정: RCC를 중심으로 (An Estimation on Average Service Life of Public Buildings in South Korea: In Case of RCC)

  • 권정훈;조진형;오현승;이세재
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.84-90
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    • 2023
  • ASL estimation of public building is based on how appropriate the maximum age of the asset is derived based on the age record of the asset in the statistical data owned by public institutions. This is because we get a 'constrained' ASL by that number. And it is especially true because other studies have assumed that the building is an Iowa curve R3. Also, in this study, the survival rate is 1% as the threshold value at which the survival curve and the predictable life curve almost coincide. Rather than a theoretical basis, in the national statistical survey, the value of residual assets was recognized from the net value of 10% of the acquisition value when the average service life has elapsed, and 1% when doubling the average service life has elapsed. It is based on the setting mentioned above. The biggest constraint in fitting statistical data to the Iowa curve is that the maximum ASL is selected at R3 150%, and the 'constrained' ASL is calculated by the proportional expression on the assumption that the Iowa curve is followed. In like manner constraints were considered. First, the R3 disposal curve for the RCC(reinforced cement concrete) building was prepared according to the discarding method in the 2000 work, and it was jointly worked on with the National Statistical Office to secure the maximum amount of vintage data, but the lacking of sample size must be acknowledged. Even after that, the National Statistical Office and the Bank of Korea have been working on estimating the Iowa curve for each asset class in the I-O table. Another limitation is that the asset classification uses the broad classification of buildings as a subcategory. Second, if there were such assets with a lifespan of 115 years that were acquired in 1905 and disposed of in 2020, these discarded data would be omitted from this ASL calculation. Third, it is difficult to estimate the correct Iowa curve based on the stub-curve even if there is disposal data because Korea has a relatively shorter construction history, accumulated economic wealth since the 1980's. In other words, "constrained" ASL is an under-estimation of its ASL. Considering the fact that Korea was an economically developing country in the past and during rapid economic development, environmental factors such as asset accumulation and economic ability should be considered. Korea has a short period of accumulation of economic wealth, and the history of 'proper' architectures faithful to building regulations and principles is short and as a result, buildings 'not built properly' and 'proper' architectures are mixed. In this study, ASL of RCC public building was estimated at 70 years.

도시주부의 가치유형과 계획행동유형 및 가정생활만족도 (Value Patterns Planning Styles and Family Life Satisfaction of Urban Homemakers)

  • 황덕순
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.203-218
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    • 1996
  • This study analyzed the relationships among the components of home management system. Through this it make to explain relationship between values and planning exactly and partially to test empirically system model to home management 650 housewives were adapted as data. Cluster analysis \chi$2 and ANOVA were used as statistical analysis. The resultes are summarized as follows 1) Goal-centered planning level was higher than that of resource-centered By 2 plannings subjects were classified into 4 planning styles : active morphogenic resource-reorganized demand-reorganized passive morphostatic style. 2) A difference between terminal value patterns and planning styles was no significant but a difference between instrumental value patterns and planning styles was significant. Family life satisfaction showed significant differences by not value patterns but planning styles. Because of high family life satisfaction as output of management active morphogenic style was successful. For succ ssful planning, it was suggested that homemarkers should possess values related broadminded loving and forgiving.

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Analysis of the Corporate Life Cycle using the Gompertz Model Focused on Korean Pharmaceutical Longevity Companies

  • Kyu-Jin, CHOI;Kang-Sun, LEE;Sung-Wook, KANG;Dae-Myeong, CHO
    • 융합경영연구
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.31-44
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to figure out the characteristics of corporate life cycle and resource input in terms of the sustainability diagnosis of pharmaceutical companies in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: Using the Gompertz model under the assumption that companies have finite resources, this study tries quantitative interpretation of life cycle and resource input pattern for longevity companies with 25 years of experience among 158 pharmaceutical companies listed on Korean stock market based on maturity of revenue. Results: The study found revenue maturity through Gompertz model was statistically correlated with enterprise value. According to the life cycle analysis, more than 95% of 59 pharmaceutical companies were in the growth and maturity phase and have an average life cycle of 88 years and an average remaining life of 52 years. Regarding maturity profile of resource input, maturity of employees was generally high more than 60% and this meant there was jobless growth in Korean pharmaceutical industry. Conclusion: This study demonstrated there is a high statistical correlation between the maturity of a company's resource input and its revenue and enterprise value. It is believed that these results could be utilized as a basis for high fidelity function that predict revenue and enterprise value based on resource input information.

A Proposal of Some Analysis Methods for Discovery of User Information from Web Data

  • Ahn, JeongYong;Han, Kyung Soo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2001
  • The continuous growth in the use of the World Wide Web is creating the data with very large scale and different types. Analyzing such data can help to determine the life time value of users, evaluate the effectiveness of web sites, and design marketing strategies and services. In this paper, we propose some analysis methods for web data and present an example of a prototypical web data analysis.

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The effect of life insurance settlement on insurance market and consumer welfare

  • Hong, Jimin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.689-699
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the effect of life settlement on the monopolistic insurance market. In particular, we consider liquidity cost, which is the cost incurred to the insurer to meet the request of surrender, and trading cost, which is the transaction cost of the policyholders for the settlement. We first show that the introduction of a life settlement can increase insurance demand and enhance consumer welfare even when the trading cost is higher than the liquidity cost. That is, even if the settlement market is less efficient than the insurance market, both insurance demand and consumer welfare can be increased. Second, the insurer's profit can also be increased when settlement is introduced because not only can the insurer save the liquidity cost but also the demand of insurance increases. Lastly, insurance demand does not always decrease when both costs increase. Depending on the population distribution over the liquidity risk, the demand of insurance can be increased or decreased.

원자력발전소 사고 사망의 통계적 생명가치와 사회적 비용 및 에너지정책 시사점 (The Value of a Statistical Life and Social Costs of Death due to Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Energy Policy Implications)

  • 김용주
    • 한국방사선학회논문지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.79-90
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    • 2023
  • 본 논문은 원자력발전소(원전) 사고에 의한 조기사망의 사회적 비용을 추정하기 위해 조건부가치측정법(Contingent Valuation Method, CVM)을 이용하여 통계적 생명가치(Value of a Statistical Life, VSL)를 추정한다. VSL 추정치는 약 35억 5천만 원이다. 이에 세계 원전 역사상 발생한 모든 사고 사망자수 약 181만 명을 곱하여 추정한 사회적 비용은 1,952조 원으로서 한국의 2022년 실질 GDP에 비견되는 수준이다. 연평균 조기사망자수와 사회적 비용은 각각 26,000명과 28조 원이다. 1987~2021년간 세계 화력발전소의 사고와 대기오염물질 배출로 인해 발생한 조기사망의 사회적 비용 추정치는 26,919조 원인데, 이는 미국의 2021년 GDP 규모에 상당하는 규모로서 9조 원을 기록한 원전의 약 3,000배에 달한다. 2021년 한 해만 보더라도, 화력발전소의 사회적 비용은 1,075조 원에 달하지만, 원전은 2,920억 원에 불과하다. 한국의 경우, 2050 탄소중립 정책의 영향으로 재생에너지 발전 비중이 증가할 것이므로, 화력발전 대비 원자력발전 비중을 증가시키는 에너지믹스를 제안한다. 본 논문은 또한 효율적인 에너지 정책을 담보하기 위해 CVM을 이용한 VSL 추정 연구를 지속적으로 축적할 필요가 있음을 강조한다.

질병예방행위 분석을 통한 확률적 인간생명가치 추정: 암 검진 행위 분석을 중심으로 (Estimating the Value of Statistical Life by Analysing Disease Protective Behavior: Focusing on Medical Examination of Cancer)

  • 신영철
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.845-873
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    • 2008
  • 이 연구에서는 회피행위의 다목적성(결합생산) 문제를 최소화할 수 있는 암 검진 행위라는 회피행위 자료에 대해 표본선택편의를 극복할 수 있는 모형을 적용하여, 사망위험 감소에 대한 지불의사금액의 도출과 더불어 확률적 인간생명가치(value of statistical life : VSL)를 추정하였다. 간암 사망위험을 감소시키기 위한 비용 및 시간 등과 관련된 자료를 이용하여 건강 및 안전에 대한 가계생산함수모형의 틀에서 사망위험 감소를 위한 한계편익을 추정하였다. 간암 검사를 받을 확률을 높아지도록 하는 변수는 남성인 경우, 연령이 많을수록, 교육받은 기간이 길수록, 유배우자인 경우, 현재 흡연자인 경우, 가구소득이 높을수록, 건강염려 정도가 높을 때인 것으로 나타났다. 간암 검진과 관련된 비용은 조기 검진으로 인하여 감소하는 사망위험의 크기 및 성별, 교육받은 기간, 유배우자 여부, 가구 소득에 의해서도 예상한 대로 유의한 영향을 받았다. 암 검진에 의한 사망위험 감소 크기(risk)의 한계효과는 321,097원이다. 교육년수(edu)의 경우 1년 증가하면 간암 검진비용이 905원, 가구 소득(hinc)이 100만 원 증가하면 간암 검진비용이 1,743원 증가한다. 한편 남성인 경우가 여성에 비해 간암 검진비용으로 12,310원을, 유배우자가 무배우자에 비해 7,969원을 더 부담하고 있다. 암 검진으로 인한 조기사망위험 감소로부터 도출된 확률적 인간생명가치는 평균 사망위험 감소 수준 및 평균 암 검진 비용 수준에서 3억 2,110만 원이다. 또한 암 검진 소요비용과 암 검진 효과에 대한 불확실성을 위해 민감도 분석의 결과에서는 확률적 인간생명가치가 1억 6,055만 원~6억 4,219만 원으로 추정되었다.

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A Brief Guide to Statistical Analysis and Presentation for the Plant Pathology Journal

  • Jeon, Junhyun
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2022
  • Statistical analysis of data is an integral part of research projects in all scientific disciplines including the plant pathology. Appropriate design, application and interpretation of statistical analysis are also, therefore, at the center of publishing and properly evaluating studies in plant pathology. A survey of research works published in the Plant Pathology Journal, however, cast doubt on high standard of statistical analysis required for scientific rigor and reproducibility in the journal. Here I first describe, based on the survey of published works, what mistakes are commonly made and what components are often lacking during statistical analysis and interpretation of its results. Next, I provide possible remedies and suggestions to help guide researchers in preparing manuscript and reviewers in evaluating manuscripts submitted to the Plant Pathology Journal. This is not aiming at delineating technical and practical details of particular statistical methods or approaches.

A New Interpretation Approach using Tobit Analysis : Simulations based on Type I Tobit of Amemiya - Focused on Childcare Services -

  • Park, Sun-Young
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제19권6호
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2001
  • The purposes of this study were first to construct statistical and econometric models based on Amemiya\`s Type I Tobit mainly addressing the issue of statistical efficiency; second to explore income, price, and curvilinear age effects on the explained variable in order to illustrates its statistical marginal effects related to econometric issues; finally to provide invaluable insight for graphical simulations as a new interpretation approach using Tobit analysis. Results indicated that interpretation for the mean marginal effects of three possible cases of dependent variable was more likely to be evident to understand Tobit results compared to conventional analysis only using latent variable, beta. Results also revealed that prediction value of dependent variable can be possibly and easily projected by the independent variable changed whereas only beta value can not illustrate its projection as independent variables'changes.

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