DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analysis of the Corporate Life Cycle using the Gompertz Model Focused on Korean Pharmaceutical Longevity Companies

  • Kyu-Jin, CHOI (Graduate School of Technology and Innovation Management, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kang-Sun, LEE (Graduate School of Technology and Innovation Management, Hanyang University) ;
  • Sung-Wook, KANG (Graduate School of Technology and Innovation Management, Hanyang University) ;
  • Dae-Myeong, CHO (Graduate School of Technology and Innovation Management, Hanyang University)
  • Received : 2023.01.22
  • Accepted : 2023.02.05
  • Published : 2023.02.28

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to figure out the characteristics of corporate life cycle and resource input in terms of the sustainability diagnosis of pharmaceutical companies in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology: Using the Gompertz model under the assumption that companies have finite resources, this study tries quantitative interpretation of life cycle and resource input pattern for longevity companies with 25 years of experience among 158 pharmaceutical companies listed on Korean stock market based on maturity of revenue. Results: The study found revenue maturity through Gompertz model was statistically correlated with enterprise value. According to the life cycle analysis, more than 95% of 59 pharmaceutical companies were in the growth and maturity phase and have an average life cycle of 88 years and an average remaining life of 52 years. Regarding maturity profile of resource input, maturity of employees was generally high more than 60% and this meant there was jobless growth in Korean pharmaceutical industry. Conclusion: This study demonstrated there is a high statistical correlation between the maturity of a company's resource input and its revenue and enterprise value. It is believed that these results could be utilized as a basis for high fidelity function that predict revenue and enterprise value based on resource input information.

Keywords

References

  1. Adizes. I (1996). Ten Stages of Corporate Life Cycles, Inc, 18(14), page 95.
  2. Aldrich. H. E. (1979). Organizations and environments, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
  3. Aldrich H. E. (1999). Organizations evolving, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
  4. Anthony, J. H., & Ramesh, K. (1992). Association between accounting performance measures and stock prices: A test of the life cycle hypothesis, Journal of Accounting and economics, 15(2-3), 203-227. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-4101(92)90018-W
  5. Bens, D. A., Nagar, V., & Wong, M. F. (2002). Real investment implications of employee stock option exercises, Journal of Accounting Research, 40(2), 359-393. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00052
  6. Bellone, F., Musso, P., Nesta, L., & Quéré, M. (2008). Market selection along the firm life cycle, Industrial and Corporate Change, 17(4), 753-777.
  7. Cefis, E., & Marsili, O. (2019). Good times, bad times: innovation and survival over the business cycle. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(3), 565-587.
  8. Cziglerne Erb, E. (2020). The Re-emergence of the Residual Income Model in the Valuation of Firms and Investment Projects. PENZUGYI SZEMLE/PUBLIC FINANCE QUARTERLY, 65(3), 430-442. https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2020_3_7
  9. DeAngelo, H., DeAngelo, L., & Stulz, R. M. (2006). Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory, Journal of Financial economics, 81(2), 227-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.07.005
  10. Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle, The Accounting Review, 86(6), 1969-1994. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10130
  11. Domingues, J. S. (2012). Gompertz model: Resolution and analysis for tumors, Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Application, 1(7), 70-77.
  12. Hirshleifer, J. (1978). Competition, cooperation, and conflict in economics and biology, The American Economic Review, 68(2), 238-243
  13. Hannan M. T. and Freeman. J. (1989), Organizational ecology. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  14. Jha, A., & Saha D. (2018). Diffusion and forecast of mobile service generations in Germany, UK, France, and Italy comparative analysis based in Bass, Gompertz and simple losistic growth models, Proceedings of Twenty-Sixth European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS2018). Portsmouth, UK.
  15. Jha, A., & Saha, D. (2020). Forecasting and analysing the characteristics of 3G and 4G mobile broadband diffusion in India: A comparative evaluation of Bass, Norton-Bass, Gompertz, and logistic growth models, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 152, 119885 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119885
  16. Jiang, X., & Lee, B. S. (2005). An empirical test of the accounting-based residual income model and the traditional dividend discount model, The Journal of Business, 78(4), 1465-1504. https://doi.org/10.1086/430866
  17. Lippitt G. L. & Shumdit W. H. (1967). Crises in a developing organization: Organization confrontations test managerical fitness in the same way that individual crises test human fitness, George Washington University.
  18. Manson. S. M. (2001). Simplifying complexity: a review of complexity theory. Geoforum, 32(3), 405-414. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7185(00)00035-X
  19. Menzel, M. P., & Fornahl, D. (2010). Cluster life cycles-dimensions and rationales of cluster evolution, Industrial and corporate change, 19(1), 205-238. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtp036
  20. Olukayode, A. S. (2019). A Numerical Analysis of Basis Function on Population Growth Using Gompertz Approach, American Journal of Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 4(1), 21-26. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajmcm.20190401.13
  21. Ohlson, J. A. (1995). Earnings, book values, and dividends in equity valuation, Contemporary accounting research, 11(2), 661-687. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1995.tb00461.x
  22. Peltoniemi, M. (2005). Company Ecosystem: A Conceptual Model of an Organization Population from the Perspectives of Complexity and Evolution, e-BRC Research Reports, 18.Tampere: Finland.
  23. Perek, A. A., & Perek, S. (2012). Residual income versus discounted cash flow valuation models: An empirical study, Accounting & Taxation, 4(2), 57-64.
  24. Rapport, D. J., & Turner, J. E. (1977). Economic models in ecology, Science, 195(4276), 367-373. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.195.4276.367
  25. Tsai, B. H. (2013). Predicting the diffusion of LCD TVs by incorporating price in the extended Gompertz model, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(1), 106-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.07.006
  26. Tatro, D. (2018). The Mathematics of Cancer: Fitting the Gompertz Equation to Tumor Growth.
  27. Zardin, A. M. D. S. O., de Oliveira, C. A. L., de Oliveira, S. N., Yoshida, G. M., de Albuquerque, D. T., de Campos, C. M., & Ribeiro, R. P. (2019). Growth curves by Gompertz nonlinear regression model for male and female Nile tilapias from different genetic groups. Aquaculture, 511, 734243.