• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Modelling

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Survival analysis for contract maintenance period using life insurance data (생명보험자료를 이용한 계약유지기간에 대한 생존분석)

  • Yang, Dae Geon;Ha, Il Do;Cho, Geon Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.771-783
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    • 2018
  • The life insurance industry is interested in various factors that influence the long-term extensions of insurance contracts such as the necessity for the advisors' long-term management of consumers, product consulting, and improvement of the investment aspects. This paper investigates important factors leading to a long-term contract that forms an important part of the life insurance industry in Korea. For this purpose we used the data of contents (i.e., data from Jan 1, 2011 to Dec 31, 2016) of the contracts of xxx insurance company. In this paper, we present how to select important variables to influence the duration of the contract maintenance via a penalized Cox's proportional hazards (PH) modelling approach using insurance life data. As the result of analysis, we found that the selected important factors were the advisor's status, the reward type 2 (annuity insurance) and tendency 4 (safety-pursuing type).

Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex for Improving the Economic Security of the State

  • Petrunenko, Iaroslav;Pohrishcuk, Borys;Abramova, Maryna;Vlasenko, Yurii;Halkin, Vasyl
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2021
  • Ensuring the economic security of agro-industrial complexes of Ukrainian regions has become a top-priority task of state regional policy, as their stable functioning is an essential element of economic security of the whole country. It is overcoming threats to the development of the agro-industrial complex that ensures its further effective functioning and has a significant impact on the economic security of our state. Methods: logical method; methods of system analysis; synthesis; economic and statistical method; method of expert assessment; SWOT analysis; economic and mathematical modelling and planning. Results. Characteristic features of economic security have been given. The essence and significance of the agro-industrial complex in improving the economic security of the state have been determined. It has been noted that in recent years, the agro-industrial complex, which acts as a driver of the domestic economy and has a direct impact on the development of the country, has been growing (in 2019 the cereal and legume harvest exceeded 75 million tons, 20,269 thousand tons of potatoes were dug, more than 15 million tons of sunflower, 9,688 thousand tons of vegetables and 2,119 thousand tons of fruits and berries were harvested, meat and egg production increased by 137.5 thousand tons (or 5.8%) and 545.5 million pieces (or 3.4%), respectively, the number of employed population in agriculture increased by 139.8 thousand people (or 4.9%), the labour productivity in crop production increased by UAH 294.4 thousand (or 44.6%), in livestock production - by UAH 311.3 thousand (or 61.8%)). Based on the system of production and economic indicators, the analysis of the state of the agro-industrial complex has been carried out. Taking into account the results of the obtained data and using SWOT-analysis, the major threats to the development of the agro-industrial complex have been identified. Ways of overcoming threats enhancing the economic security of Ukraine have been proposed.

Fatigue wind load spectrum construction based on integration of turbulent wind model and measured data for long-span metal roof

  • Liman Yang;Cong Ye;Xu Yang;Xueyao Yang;Jian-ge Kou
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2023
  • Aiming at the problem that fatigue characteristics of metal roof rely on local physical tests and lacks the cyclic load sequence matching with regional climate, this paper proposed a method of constructing the fatigue load spectrum based on integration of wind load model, measured data of long-span metal roof and climate statistical data. According to the turbulence characteristics of wind, the wind load model is established from the aspects of turbulence intensity, power spectral density and wind pressure coefficient. Considering the influence of roof configuration on wind pressure distribution, the parameters are modified through fusing the measured data with least squares method to approximate the actual wind pressure load of the roof system. Furthermore, with regards to the wind climate characteristics of building location, Weibull model is adopted to analyze the regional meteorological data to obtain the probability density distribution of wind velocity used for calculating wind load, so as to establish the cyclic wind load sequence with the attributes of regional climate and building configuration. Finally, taking a workshop's metal roof as an example, the wind load spectrum is constructed according to this method, and the fatigue simulation and residual life prediction are implemented based on the experimental data. The forecasting result is lightly higher than the design standards, consistent with general principles of its conservative safety design scale, which shows that the presented method is validated for the fatigue characteristics study and health assessment of metal roof.

A Standard Guide to Physical Oceanographic Survey of the Effect of Thermal Discharge from a Nuclear Power Plant (원자력발전소 온배수 영향 해양물리분야 조사의 표준지침)

  • Lee, Jae-Hak;Ro, Young-Jae;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2007
  • The methods of physical oceanographic surveys to examine the effect of thermal discharge from nuclear power plants in Korea have been reviewed and a standard guide to the survey is proposed. It is desirable that in situ observation and numerical thermal diffusion modeling are conducted simultaneously to describe the variation in temperature distribution affected by thermal discharge from a power plant because any observation or numerical modeling alone has limits to do so quantitatively. It is suggested that the field observation must be based on the concept of heat budget modeling considering all artificial and natural heat sources/sinks around the power plant. Any results from numerical modeling must reach to a certain statistical significance level to use for a standard temperature distribution. In addition, the development of standard numerical codes is proposed to improve the problems shown in the past numerical circulation and diffusion modelling.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Laryngeal Cancer Screening using Cepstral Parameters (켑스트럼 파라미터를 이용한 후두암 검진)

  • 이원범;전경명;권순복;전계록;김수미;김형순;양병곤;조철우;왕수건
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2003
  • Background and Objectives : Laryngeal cancer discrimination using voice signals is a non-invasive method that can carry out the examination rapidly and simply without giving discomfort to the patients. n appropriate analysis parameters and classifiers are developed, this method can be used effectively in various applications including telemedicine. This study examines voice analysis parameters used for laryngeal disease discrimination to help discriminate laryngeal diseases by voice signal analysis. The study also estimates the laryngeal cancer discrimination activity of the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier based on the statistical modelling of voice analysis parameters. Materials and Methods : The Multi-dimensional voice program (MDVP) parameters, which have been widely used for the analysis of laryngeal cancer voice, sometimes fail to analyze the voice of a laryngeal cancer patient whose cycle is seriously damaged. Accordingly, it is necessary to develop a new method that enables an analysis of high reliability for the voice signals that cannot be analyzed by the MDVP. To conduct the experiments of laryngeal cancer discrimination, the authors used three types of voices collected at the Department of Otorhinorlaryngology, Pusan National University Hospital. 50 normal males voice data, 50 voices of males with benign laryngeal diseases and 105 voices of males laryngeal cancer. In addition, the experiment also included 11 voices data of males with laryngeal cancer that cannot be analyzed by the MDVP, Only monosyllabic vowel /a/ was used as voice data. Since there were only 11 voices of laryngeal cancer patients that cannot be analyzed by the MDVP, those voices were used only for discrimination. This study examined the linear predictive cepstral coefficients (LPCC) and the met-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) that are the two major cepstrum analysis methods in the area of acoustic recognition. Results : The results showed that this met frequency scaling process was effective in acoustic recognition but not useful for laryngeal cancer discrimination. Accordingly, the linear frequency cepstral coefficients (LFCC) that excluded the met frequency scaling from the MFCC was introduced. The LFCC showed more excellent discrimination activity rather than the MFCC in predictability of laryngeal cancer. Conclusion : In conclusion, the parameters applied in this study could discriminate accurately even the terminal laryngeal cancer whose periodicity is disturbed. Also it is thought that future studies on various classification algorithms and parameters representing pathophysiology of vocal cords will make it possible to discriminate benign laryngeal diseases as well, in addition to laryngeal cancer.

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Time-activity Pattern Assessment for Korean Students (한국 학생들의 시간활동 양상 평가)

  • Ryu, Hyeonsu;Yoon, Hyojung;Eom, Igchun;Park, Jinhyeon;Kim, Sunshin;Cho, Mansu;Yang, Wonho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for air pollutant exposure modelling and understanding the contribution of respective microenvironments by assessing the time-activity patterns of Korean students according to variables such as grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. Methods: In this study, we compared the residential time of 521 (both weekday and weekend) lower elementary students, 1,735 (1,054 on weekdays, 681 on weekends) upper elementary students, 2,210 (1,294 on weekdays, 916 on weekends) middle school students, and 2,366 (1,387 on weekdays, 979 on weekends) high school students in different microenvironments according to grade, sex, weekday, and weekend. We used data from the 2014 Time-Use Survey by the Korean National Statistical Office for upper elementary students through high school students, and surveyed time-activity patterns of 521 lower elementary students aged 7-9 years. Each microenvironment was divided into indoor, outdoor, and transport. Indoor environments were divided into home, school, and other places. In addition, the results of previous studies were compared to this study. Results: Weekday time-activity patterns of Korean students indicated that lower elementary students spent $16.02{\pm}2.53hr$ in the home and $5.37{\pm}2.32hr$ in school. Upper elementary students spent $14.11{\pm}1.79hr$ in the home and $6.27{\pm}1.37hr$ in school. Middle school students spent $12.83{\pm}2.22hr$ in the home and $7.48{\pm}1.88hr$ in school. High school students spent $10.65{\pm}2.86hr$ in the home and $10.23{\pm}2.86hr$ in school on weekdays. High school students spent the least amount of time in the home and the most time in school compared to other grades Conclusions: Students spent most of their time indoors, including in the home, school, and other indoors. On weekdays, as the grade increases, home residential times were decreased and school residential times were increased. Differences in time-activity patterns according to sex were not found for either weekdays or weekends. It is estimated that Korean students could be affected by school indoor air quality. High school students could be most affected by school indoor air quality since they spent the most time at school.

Comparison between the Road-based and the Parcel-based Address Coordinates for Urban Air Pollution Estimation - A Case Study of Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, Korea - (도심대기오염추정을 위한 도로명주소좌표와 지번주소좌표의 비교 - 서울 영등포 지역의 사례연구 -)

  • Park, Jinwoo;Choi, Jinmu;Hong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.169-181
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    • 2016
  • The address system in Korea was changed to the road-based system in 2014, but the current address coordinates are still largely based on the old, parcel-based system. Compared to the parcel-based address system that defines the center of a parcel as its coordinates, the road-based system locates the coordinates at a certain distance away from the road on which the parcel fronts. The difference in coordinates between these two systems is small, but it can be crucial for micro-level modelling. In order to assess the impact of the discrepancy between the two address systems, this study measured the degree of air pollution exposure at two different locations, the road-based address coordinates and the parcel-based address coordinates, for each of 252 buildings in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul. The air pollution values were estimated using a microscopic air pollution dispersion model, CALINE4, and t-tests and F-tests were conducted to evaluate statistical significance on the observed difference. The results showed a considerable difference in the level of air pollution exposure between the two address systems, suggesting that the on-going use of the parcel-based address coordinates could cause potentially significant errors in micro-level analysis.

Causal Effects Along Transitive Causal Routes: Reconsidering Two Concepts of Effects Founded on Structural Equation Model (이행적 인과 경로를 통한 원인 효과에 대한 해명: 구조 방정식에 토대한 인과 모형의 원인 효과 개념에 대한 평가와 대안)

  • Kim, Joonsung
    • Korean Journal of Logic
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.83-133
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, I pose a problem for Hitchcock's arguments for two concepts of effects that are intended to explicate double causal effects, and put forth a theory that is intended not just to meet the problem but also to accommodate Hitchcock's theory and Eells' theory both. First, I introduce an example of dual causal effects, and examine the accounts of Otte(1985) and Eells(1987) on how to explicate the dual effects. I show that their accounts of the dual effects help us understand the problem of dual effects and see how different it is for Cartwright(1979, 1989, 1995), Eells(1991, 1995), and Hitchcock(2001a) to meet the problem. Second, I introduce two concepts of effects on Hitchcock(2001a), that is, net effect and component effect that are allegedly analogous to two effects of structural equation model. Third, I reveal the significance of homogeneous subpopulation and causal interaction regarding the problem of dual effects while examining Cartwright's theory and Elles' theory. Fourth, I critically examine the two concepts of effects on Hitchcock and argue against Hitchcock's criticism of Eells' theory. Fifth, I take a moderator variable of structural equation model and a moderator effect into the probabilistic theory of causality, and formally generalize causal interaction due to the dual effects in terms of disjunctive relation and counterfactual conditionals. I expect my account of disjunctive relation and counterfactual conditionals to contribute not just to several problems the received theories of causal modelling confront but also to the structural equation models many people exploit as a promising statistical methodology.

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Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific by Neural Network Model (신경망 모델을 이용한 적도 태평양 표층 수온 예측)

  • Chang You-Soon;Lee Da-Un;Seo Jang-Won;Youn Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.268-275
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    • 2005
  • One of the nonlinear statistical modelling, neural network method was applied to predict the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino regions, which represent El Nino indices. The data used as inputs in the training step of neural network model were the first seven empirical orthogonal functions in the tropical Pacific $(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The period of 1951 to 1993 was adopted for the training of neural network model, and the period 1994 to 2003 for the forecasting validation. Forecasting results suggested that neural network models were resonable for SSTA forecasting until 9-month lead time. They also predicted greatly the development and decay of strong E1 Nino occurred in 1997-1998 years. Especially, Nino3 region appeared to be the best forecast region, while the forecast skills rapidly decreased since 9-month lead time. However, in the Nino1+2 region where they are relatively low by the influence of local effects, they did not decrease even after 9-month lead time.