• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.137-152
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• 2023

Purpose - Although many existing studies on the US-China hegemonic conflict and decoupling have been published, most of them are qualitative and use descriptive analysis methods. Papers that quantitatively analyzed decoupling mainly estimate the effect of a tariff increase. However, this paper quantitatively analyzed the ripple effect by focusing on decoupling technology spillover between the United States and China. And, for the first time, it was suggested that the blocking of technology spillover could give a fatal blow to the East Asian economy as well as China. Design/methodology - The United States is pursuing decoupling with China, primarily in goods trade and blocking technology transfer. This paper sets up various scenarios and uses three computational general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyze the overall ripple effects of decoupling. A paper using the three CGE models for decoupling ripple effect analysis has not yet been published. Findings - Decoupling will hit the economies of regions with close economic ties to China more than others. According to simulation results of this study, the Chinese economy may suffer severe damage that is difficult to recover from, and the economies of Asian countries are predicted to deteriorate to the point of being choked. Originality/value - Existing papers that assessed the effect of decoupling mostly focus on estimating the effect itself through tariff hikes. This paper is meaningful in that it comprehensively analyzed decoupling by adding the effect of technology spillover blockade. In addition, another meaning can be found in that it quantified for the first time that it will deal a huge blow to the extent of choking the East Asian economy as well as China.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.3-18
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• 2018

본고는 2003~2013년 기간 동안 62개 국가의 양자 무역자료를 이용하여 양자 간의 수출과 수입에 FTA와 FTA의 파급효과가 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 이를 분석하기 위해 본고에서는 1) FTA더미변수와 2) FTA더미변수를 이용한 가중평균수출입 규모를 FTA의 파급효과 변수로 구축하였으며, GMM, 패널 고정효과 및 확률효과, 그리고 PPML 추정방법을 이용하였다. 분석결과, FTA변수는 양자 간의 수출과 수입에 양(+)의 관계를 보여, 양자 간의 FTA가 무역창출 및 무역전환 효과에 의해 수출입을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. FTA의 파급효과를 나타내는 FTA 가중평균수출입 규모 변수도 모든 분석모형에서 양(+)의 값을 갖는 것으로 분석되어, 주변국 또는 제3국들의 다양한 FTA 체결은 양자 간의 무역규모를 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본고는 무역을 증가시키기 위해서는 다양한 FTA를 체결한 국가와의 무역을 하는 것이 바람직하며, 향후 FTA의 분석은 기존의 2개국 모형에서 3개국 모형 분석으로 확대될 필요성이 있다는 시사점을 제시하였다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.21-35
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• 2018

Squid is a popular seafood in Korea. However, since the 2000s, the squid production has been declining. The unstable supply of the squid products may cause price fluctuations of fresh and chilled squid. These price fluctuations may be relatively more severe than them of other commodities, because the fresh and chilled squid can not be stored for a long period of time. Thus, this study analyzes the structural characteristics of price volatility and price asymmetry of fresh squid based on off-diagonal GARCH model. Data used to analysis of this study are daily wholesale and retail prices of fresh squid from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016 provided in the KAMIS. As theoretical approaches of this study, first of all, the stability of the time series is confirmed by the unit root test. Secondly, the causality between distribution channels is checked by the Granger causality test. Thirdly, the VAR model and the off-diagonal GARCH model are adopted to estimate asymmetry effect and price volatility spillover between distribution channels. Finally, the stability of the model is confirmed by multivariate Q-statistic and ARCH-LM test. In conclusion, fresh squid is found to have shock and volatility spillover between wholesale and retail prices as well as its own price. Also, volatility asymmetry effect is shown in own wholesale or retail price of fresh squid. Finally, this study shows that the decrease in the fresh squid retail price of t-1 period than the increase in the t-1 period has a greater impact on the volatility of the fresh squid wholesale price in t period.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.390-399
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• 2013

본 연구는 금융위기 이후 새로운 질서로 부상되고 있는 뉴 노멀 시대하 한국 기업의 R&D투자가 각 산업에 미치는 기술파급효과를 생산유발효과, 전후방연관효과, 기술집약효과, 기술확산효과를 통하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 먼저, 생산유발계수가 높은 부문으로는 전문과학 및 기술서비스, 금속제품, 일반기계 등인 반면 비교적 작은 부문으로는 석유 및 석탄제품, 전력, 가스 및 수도 등으로 나타났다. 또한, 산업간 전 후방연관효과를 나타내는 감응도계수와 영향력계수는 비금속광물제품이나 수송장비 등의 부문에서 비교적 높게 나타나 이들 산업을 중심으로 R&D투자를 통한 기술혁신과 생산성 증대가 이루어진다면 여타 산업에 큰 파급효과를 유발하게 될 것으로 보인다. 기술파급효과인 R&D집약효과와 확산효과에서는 두 효과 모두 비교적 높은 부문은 전기 및 전자기기, 정밀기기, 그리고 전문과학 및 기술서비스부문으로 이들 산업으로부터 많은 기술이 체화되어 이전되고 있음을 알 수 있다. 특이한 사항으로 최근에 각광받고 있는 과학전문 및 기술서비스업은 집약효과 및 확산효과 모두에서 높은 R&D투자효과를 보여주고 있어 앞으로 이들 산업의 육성이 필요시 된다고 하겠다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2019

Purpose - We document the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US and China on the dynamic spillover effect of macroeconomics such as stock price, housing price in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the nine variables to analyze the effect which produces a result among the EPU indexes of the US and China on economic variables which is the consumer price index (CPI), housing purchase price composite index, housing lease price, the stock price index in banking industry, construction industry and distribution industry, and composite leading indicator from January 1995 to December 2016 with the Vector Error Correction Model. Result - The US EPU index has significantly a negative relation on the CPI, housing purchase price index, housing lease price index, the stock price index in banking industry, construction industry, and distribution industry in Korea. Conclusions - We find the dynamic effect of the EPU indexes in the US and China on the macroeconomics returns in Korea. This study has an empirical evidence that the economy market in Korea is influenced by the EPU index of the US rather than it of China. The higher EPU, the more risky the economy of in Korea.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.31-38
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• 2021

The study investigates the diversification behavior of Islamic stocks against US financial uncertainty. Considering limitations found in the literature, a comprehensive index of financial uncertainty (FU) is used, developed by Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015). The empirical analysis uses monthly data from four Islamic markets - Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey - for the period from January 2010 to September 2019. Results of the bivariate EGARCH models show that Islamic stocks can be used for diversification purpose against the financial uncertainty of the US because the volatility of US uncertainty does not propagate in the Islamic stock markets. Moreover, findings show that the spillover effect of financial uncertainty varies with the FU forecast horizon. The spillover effect of FU increases with an increase in the FU forecast horizon and becomes significant over 3-month and 12-month periods in the case of Saudi Arabia. The current volatility of Islamic stock returns is independent of the size of shocks in past volatility. The leverage effect and asymmetry have been found in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The findings validate the arguments of the literature that Islamic markets are resilient facing uncertainties and perform well during crisis periods. The findings are important for investors in making better portfolio decisions.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2031-2048
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• 2021

Not only can air pollution reduce the overall competitiveness of tourist destinations, but also changes tourists' travel decisions, thereby affecting the tourism flows. The study presents a machine learning method to analyze how the haze pollution puts spatial effect on tourism flows in China from 2001 to 2018, and reveals the regional differences in heterogeneity among eastern, central, and western China. Our investigation reveals three interesting observations. First, the Environmental Kuznets Curve of the impact of haze pollution on tourism flows is not significant. In the eastern and western regions, the interaction between haze pollution and domestic tourism flows as well as inbound tourism flows shows an inverted U-shaped curve respectively. Second, there is an significantly positive spillover effect of tourism flows in all of the eastern, central, and western regions. As to the intensity of spillover, domestic tourism flows is higher than that of the inbound tourism flows. Both of the above figures are greatest in the eastern. Third, the Chinese haze pollution mainly reduces the inbound tourism flows, and only imposes significantly negative direct effects on the domestic tourism flows in the central region. In the central and eastern regions, significantly negative direct effects and spillover effects are exerted on inbound tourism.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권2호
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• pp.133-154
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• 2022

The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), which is used as an indicator for marine transportation of steel raw materials, is one of the key economic indexes for managing the risk of loss due to rapid market fluctuations when steel companies establish business strategies and procuring plans for raw materials. Still, the conditions of supply and demand of steel raw materials has been extremely affected by volatility shocks from drastic events like the financial crisis such as the Lehman Brothers incident and changes in the external environment such as COVID-19. And, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, endeavors to predict the market conditions of the steel raw material is becoming more and more arduous for the deepening uncertainty and increased volatility of BCI, which has been used as a leading indicator of the real economy. This study investigates the correlation between the steel raw material market and the marine transportation market by estimating the spillover effect of information between markets. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to analyze information transfer based on the correlation between the BCI and crude steel production, capesize fleet supply, raw material price, and cargo volume.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.165-177
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• 2009

본 연구는 서울시 25개 구, 354개의 스크린 수를 이용하여 영화상영관의 입지 패턴은 지역의 공간적인 연계성에 의해서 입지함을 GIS를 이용한 공간파급력 비교와 공간회귀모형을 이용한 공간결정요인을 이용하여 도출하였다. 스크린 수를 분석의 Z값으로 설정하여 영화상영관의 공간파급력을 분석한 결과, 서울의 영화상영관은 강북, 강남, 강서, 강동 4개 지역을 중심으로 영향력이 생성되는 것으로 분석되었으며, 4개 주요 중심축의 영향력 파급 결과, 상대적으로 영화상영관 스크린 수가 많은 지역의 파급력은 평면적으로 넓게 파급되기보다는 지역 내에서 높게 영향력이 생성되는 것을 보여 주변 인구가 영화상영관이 있는 지역으로 이동하여 영화매체를 관람하는 것으로 분석되었다. 영화상영관의 스크린 수에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는 공간적인 결정요인을 공간회귀모형을 이용하여 분석한 결과, 출판, 음반, 공연 관련 업체가 많을수록 영화상영관의 스크린수가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권8호
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• pp.109-121
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• 2022

The study empirically examines the horizontal spillover effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the productivity of Indian pharmaceutical firms. Robust least squares and the Generalized Method of Moments estimators are applied for the firm-level panel data of Indian pharmaceutical companies whose shares were traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The information was collected from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database from 2015 to 2019. Based on the regularity in data availability, the sample firms are limited to 112 companies, 100 of which are domestic firms and 12 international firms. Firms with more than 10 percent foreign equity are classified as FDI firms, while those with less than that are classified as domestic firms. Estimation results show that foreign ownership does not contribute to the productivity of domestic firms. Due to increased competition, the Indian pharmaceutical companies with foreign equity participation are not more productive than local ones. Moreover, the findings reveal a negative and insignificant horizontal spillover effect from FDI on the productivity of domestic enterprises. The absence of horizontal spillovers may be attributable to foreign enterprises' ability to prevent technological outflow to competitors in the same industry.