• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.71-99
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• 2010

The concept of CoVaR introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) is a useful tool to measure the risk spillover effect. It can capture the risk contribution of each institution to overall systemic risk. While Adrian and Brunnermeier rely on the quantile regression method in the estimation of CoVaR, we propose a new estimation method using parametric distribution functions such as bivariate normal and $S_U$-normal distribution functions. Based on our estimates of CoVaR for Korean banking industry, we investigate the practical usefulness of CoVaR for a systemic risk measure, and compare the estimation performance of each model. Empirical results show that bank makes a positive contribution to system risk. We also find that quantile regression and normal distribution models tend to considerably underestimate the CoVaR (in absolute value) compared to $S_U$-normal distribution model, and this underestimation becomes serious when the crisis in a financial system is assumed.

• Nano
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.1850115.1-1850115.10
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• 2018

A novel sensor material of Au nanoparticles (NPs) functionalized 1D ${\alpha}-MoO_3$ nanobelts (NBs) was fabricated by a facile lysine-assisted approach. The obtained $Au/{\alpha}-MoO_3$ product was characterized by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM), transmission electron microscope (TEM) and energy dispersive X-ray (EDX), and X-ray photoelectron spectra (XPS). Then, in order to investigate the gas sensing performances of our samples, a comparative gas sensing study was carried out on both the ${\alpha}-MoO_3$ NBs before and after Au NPs decoration by using ethanol vapor as the molecular probe. The results turned out that, after the functionalization of Au NPs, the sensor exhibited improved gas-sensing characteristics than the pure ${\alpha}-MoO_3$, such as response and recovery time, optimal operating temperature (OT) and excellent selectivity. Take for example 200 ppm of ethanol, the response/recovery times were 34 s/43 s and 5.7 s/10.5 s, respectively, while the optimal operating temperature (OT) was lower to $200^{\circ}C$ rather than $250^{\circ}C$. Besides, the functionalized sensor showed a higher response to ethanol at $200^{\circ}C$, and response was 1.6 times higher than the pure $MoO_3$. The mechanism of such improved sensing properties was interpreted, which might be attributed to the spillover effect of Au NPs and the electronic metal-support interaction.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.62-84
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• 2010

Accurate forecasting of volatility is of considerable interest in financial volatility research, particularly in regard to portfolio allocation, option pricing and risk management because volatility is equal to market risk. So, we attempted to delineate a model with good ability to forecast and identified stylized features of volatility, with a focus on volatility persistence or long memory in the Australian futures market. In this context, we assessed the long-memory property in the volatility of index futures contracts using three conditional volatility models, namely the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. We found that the FIGARCH model better captures the long-memory property than do the GARCH and IGARCH models. Additionally, we found that the FIGARCH model provides superior performance in one-day-ahead volatility forecasts. As discussed in this paper, the FIGARCH model should prove a useful technique in forecasting the long-memory volatility in the Australian index futures market.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.269-291
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• 2014

The purpose of this article is to analyze the tendency and characteristics in armed conflict in post-Cold War era on the basis of Uppsala conflict data program(UCDP) datasets. The collapse of bipolarity and the end of cold War proved a watershed in the dynamics of international conflict. The major shift in the nature of conflict has been away from interstate conflict, leaving intrastate conflict. Major powers have acted carefully against each other and been willing to understand the interests of other to avoid military confrontation and crash. As the means of termination for armed conflict, there is a stronger emphasis on the peace settlement like peace agreement and ceasefire agreement than military victory. Many intrastate conflicts become internationalized, through the involvement of diaspora communities, or regionalized through a spillover effect into neighboring countries. Since the end of the Cold War, the UN has taken a much more active role in conflict management and conflict resolution.

• Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.79-108
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• 2017

Using data sets from the Korean Labour and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) for the period 2003-2015, this study shows that wages of nonunion workers are positively related to the percentage of unionized workers in the same geographic region. A 10 percentage point increase in a region's union density is associated with a 4.9 percent increase in the region's average wage of nonunion workers. It is also shown that this positive spillover effect is observed for various subgroups of nonunion workers, including women, youth, low-educated workers, small firm employees, and those employed under nonstandard work arrangements. In contrast, the average wage of union workers is found to respond insignificantly to changes in a region's union density.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.539-549
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• 2023

Domestic processed food exports might increase due to the free trade agreement (FTA) and spread of the Korean Wave, Hallyu. However, the share of the domestic raw materials in the domestic processed food industry is very low at 31.4%, which limits the spillover effect on domestic agriculture. Therefore, we selected frozen dumplings as a representative processed food whose exports are growing rapidly and conducted a multiple regression analysis to examine the effects of Hallyu and FTA variables on the frozen dumpling exports. We tried to link them to an increase in agricultural income through the expansion of demand for the domestic raw materials. This study analyzed tariff indicator as the FTA variable, cosmetics export value indicator as the Hallyu Wave variable, and other variables expected to change the trade environment such as gross domestic product (GDP) and the relative exchange rate by country as the key explanatory variables that affect changes in the trade environment. The analysis showed that the core hypothesis, the Hallyu variable and the FTA variable, have a positive impact on frozen dumpling exports. Frozen dumpling exports are expected to increase as the FTAs and the spread of Hallyu are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Therefore, we should seek ways to increase the proportion of domestically produced ingredients in the frozen dumplings to spread the economic impact to domestic agriculture. We reviewed previous studies and determined, the price-related factors play a major role in the use of imported ingredients, and that price stability and competitiveness are essential to increase the share of the domestically produced ingredients. Based on these conclusions, we reviewed the current status of food industry-related policies and determined measures needed to expand the use of domestically produced ingredients.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.1-11
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• 2024

Farmland transaction prices are affected by various factors such as politics, society, and the economy. The purpose of this study is to identify multiple factors that affect the farmland transaction price due to changes in the actual transaction price of farmland by farmland unit from 2016 to 2020. There are several previous studies analyzed the determinants of farmland transaction prices by considering spatial dependency. However, in the case of land transactions where the time and space of the transaction affect simultaneously, if only spatial dependence is considered, there is a limitation in that it cannot reflect spatial dependence that occurs over time. In order to solve these limitations, To address these limitations, this study builds a spatio-temporal autoregressive model that simultaneously considers spatial and temporal dependencies using farmland transactions in Jinju City as an example. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that there was significant spatio-temporal dependence in farmland transactions within the previous 30 days. This means that if the previous farmland transaction was carried out at a high price, it has a spatio-temporal spillover effect that indirectly affects the increase in the price of other nearby farmland transactions. The study also found that various location attributes and socioeconomic attributes have a significant impact on farmland transaction prices. The spatio-temporal autoregressive model of farmland prices constructed in this study can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of farmland prices in the farmland transaction market in the future, and it is expected to be useful in drawing policy implications for stabilizing farmland prices

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-64
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• 2011

This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.1-20
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• 2022

This study analyses how much Korean visits to North Korea have an impact on the North Korean regional economy. It estimates the demand for North Korean tourism via the borders of North Korea, China, and Russia and South Korean expenses to be spent in North Korea. When asked if they are willing to visit North Korea within the next five years in case the pre-conditions of the visit to North Korea are satisfied, approximately 64.1% of the survey respondents indicated 'yes'. To estimate the demand, this research employed the analysis of purchase intention, popular in marketing, based on their willingness to visit. The annual demand for tourism was 4,136,361 persons. The average estimated expense per person is KRW 1,532,000 and the total annual expense is KRW 6,336.9 billion. Assuming that airfare is excluded from the total expense and the expense is made evenly in each tourist destination, the estimated amount to be spent in North Korea is KRW 2,838.7 billion per annum. The backward linkage effect of this expense on the North Korean regional economy is KRW 7,972.1 billion in total production inducement, KRW 2,619.4 billion in value-added inducement, and approximately 2,890,443 persons in employment inducement. The value-added inducement effect is estimated to be approximately 7.6% of the North Korean nominal GDP in 2020. South Korean tourism is expected to have a significant impact on the North Korean economy. As the demand for North Korean tourism is likely to increase steadily due to the expected increase in overseas travel demand by Koreans, inter-Korean cooperation is needed for the development of North Korean tourism infrastructure if conditions improve.