• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.298-307
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• 2018

Background: Subalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios' representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: Altogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38-94.02% by 2050 and 21.42-96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38-97.9% by 2050 and 23.07-100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan). Conclusions: This result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.126-135
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• 2015

This study was conducted to develop a large scale map of species-specific plantation sites based on selected environmental variables such as topography, soil, and climatic factors in Namwon city. Site index equations by tree species were first regressed to 27 environmental variables that could influence the productivity of forest sites using digital forest site maps, digital climate maps, and the 5th National Forest Inventory data. Site index equations by tree species were all evaluated to estimate site productivity using 4-5 environmental variables, and the models' reliability was confirmed based on evaluation statistics. The determination coefficients of site index equations by species ranged from 0.42 to 0.76. With the site index equations, the site conditions appropriate for productive sites by species were considered to assess spatial distribution of productive areas for each species. The final map for optimal plantation in Namwon city was produced based on both site index equations and site conditions appropriate for productive sites by each species using GIS technique. Field survey was conducted to evaluate the suitability of selected species on the map of species-specific plantation sites. Results showed that the plantation map provides relatively reasonable spatial distribution of productive areas for selected species. It was revealed, however, that the sites evaluated as 'not suitable' for any tree species should be revised and complemented with additional information, especially with the site conditions appropriate for productive sites by species of interest. The outcomes of this study are expected to provide information for making customized species-specific plantation maps.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.480-489
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• 2021

Climate change poses great threats to wildlife populations by decreasing their number and destroying their habitats, jeopardizing biodiversity conservation. Asiatic salamander (Hynobiidae) species are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their small home range and limited dispersal ability. Thus, this study used one salamander species, the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus), as a model species and examined their habitat characteristics and current distribution in South Korea to predict its spatial distribution under climate change. As a result, we found that altitude was the most important environmental factor for their spatial distribution and that they showed a dense distribution in high-altitude forest regions such as Gangwon and Gyeongsanbuk provinces. The spatial distribution range and habitat characteristics predicted in the species distribution models were sufficiently in accordance with previous studies on the species. By modeling their distribution changes under two different climate change scenarios, we predicted that the distribution range of the Korean clawed salamander population would decrease by 62.96% under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 98.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a sharp reduction due to climate change. The model's AUC value was the highest in the present (0.837), followed by RCP4.5 (0.832) and RCP8.5 (0.807). Our study provides a basic reference for implementing conservation plans for amphibians under climate change. Additional research using various analysis techniques reflecting habitat characteristics and minute habitat factors for the whole life cycle of Korean-tailed salamanders help identify major environmental factors that affect species reduction.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.94-106
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• 2008

As populations inhabiting in natural ecosystem are fragmented by artificial barriers and habitats are destructed by development, extinction possibility of species is getting higher. It is necessary to design and to manage conservation areas and corridors considering animals' movement and migration for sustainable species diversity in present circumstances. 'Least-cost modeling' is one commonly employed approach in which dispersal costs are assigned to distinct habitat types and the last-costly dispersal paths among habitat patches are calculated using a geographical information system (GIS). This study aims to design ecological corridor using least-cost path method and to apply it to a regional ecological network considering movability of medium-large size mammals. This study was carried out over the metropolitan area, which has been deforested by rapid urbanization. Nevertheless there is connected with Gangwon province, Baekdudaegan mountain range and DMZ, considered where many forest species can migrate to this region. This study employs such an approach to develop least-cost path models for medium-large size mammals, have inhabited for this entire region. Considering those species, two forest areas as a source of species supply and forest areas more than 1,000ha are selected as focal forest areas. Movement and migration paths from species supply sources to focal forest areas are calculated by applying landscape permeability theory using land cover map, road density map and land slope map. Results showed least-cost paths from species supply sources to focal forest areas on two species. Wildcat and roe deer are different in some least-cost paths caused by their landscape permeability but paths show generally same specifics. The result of considering regional distribution of expected movement and migration paths to regional ecological network, low altitude mountains of western metropolitan area are evaluated important area for species connectivity. In national or regional levels ecological connectivity is essential to promote species diversity and to preserve integrated ecosystem. This study concludes that developing least-cost models from similar empirical data could significantly improve the utility of these tools.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.214-223
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• 2022

Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.

• Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.154-165
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• 2020

Coastal regions are experiencing habitat changes due to coastal development and global warming. To estimate the future distribution of coastal plants on the Korean Peninsula due to climate change, the potential distribution of ten species of coastal plants was analyzed using the MaxEnt program. The study covered the eastern, western, and southern coastal areas of the Korean Peninsula. We used the distributional data of coastal plants of the East Asian region and the 19 climate variables of WorldClim 2.0. The future potential distribution was estimated using future climate variables projected from three general circulation models (CCSM4, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR), four representative concentration pathways (2.5, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), and two time periods (2050 and 2070). The annual mean temperature influenced the estimation of the potential distribution the most. Under predicted future distribution scenarios, Lathyrus japonicus, Glehnia littoralis, Calystegia soldanella, Vitex rotundifolia, Scutellaria strigillosa, Linaria japonica, and Ixeris repens are expected to show contracted distributions, whereas the distribution of Cnidium japonicum is expected to expand. Two species, Salsola komarovii and Carex kobomugi, are predicted to show similar distributions in the future compared to those in the present. The average potential distribution in the future suggests that the effects of climate change will be greater in the west and the south coastal regions than in the east coastal region. These results will be useful baseline data to establish a conservation strategy for coastal plants.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.567-578
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• 2022

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year(2000-2019), near future(2041-2060), and distant future(2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future(2081-2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.11-18
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• 2012

Increasing concern about biodiversity has lead to a rise in demand on the spatial assessment of biological resources such as biodiversity assessment, protected area selection, habitat management and restoration in Korea. The purpose of this study is to create species richness map through data collection and modeling techniques for wildlife habitat assessment. The GAM (Generalized Additive Model) is easy to interpret and shows better relationship between environmental variables and a response variable than an existing overlap analysis and GLM (Generalized Linear Model). The study area delineated by a large watershed contains Jirisan national park, Mt. Baekun and Sumjin river with three kinds of protected areas (a national park, a landscape ecology protected area and an otter protected area). We collected the presence-absence data for wildlife (mammals and birds) using a stratified random sampling based on a land cover in the study area and implemented natural and socio-environmental data affecting wildlife habitats. After doing a habitat use analysis and specifying significant factors for each species, we built habitat suitability models using a presence-absence model and created habitat suitability maps for each species. Biodiversity maps were generated by taxa and all species using habitat suitability maps. Significant factors affecting each species habitat were different according to their habitat selection. Although some species like a water deer or a great tit were distributed at the low elevation, most potential habitats for mammals and birds were found at the edge of a national park boundary or near a forest around the medium elevation of a mountain range. This study will be used for a basis on biodiversity assessment and proected area selection carried out by Ministry of Environment.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.30-39
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• 2017

In this study, the predictive toxicity of barley Hordeum vulgare was estimated using a modified terrestrial biotic ligand model (TBLM) to account for the toxic effects of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ generated at pH 7 or higher, and this was compared to that from the original TBLM. At pH values higher than 7, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ (half maximal effective activity of $Cu^{2+}$) between the two models increased with increasing pH. As Mg concentration increased from 8.24 to 148 mg/L in the pH range of 5.5 to 8.5, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ increased, and it reached its maximum at pH 8. The difference in $EC_{50}[Cu]_T$ (half maximal effective concentration of Cu) between the two models increased as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration increased when pH was above 7. Thus, for soils with alkaline pH, the toxic effect of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ are greater at higher salt and DOC concentrations. The acceptable Cu concentration in soil porewater can be estimated by the modified TBLM through deterministic method at pH levels higher than 7, while combination of TBLM and species sensitivity distribution through the probabilistic method could be utilized at pH levels lower than 7.