• Title/Summary/Keyword: Species distribution models

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Regional Ecological Network Design for Wild Animals' Movement Using Landscape Permeability and Least-cost Path Methods in the Metropolitan Area of Korea (경관투과성 및 최소비용경로 분석을 통한 수도권 지역의 광역생태축 구축 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kun;Song, Won-Kyong;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.94-106
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    • 2008
  • As populations inhabiting in natural ecosystem are fragmented by artificial barriers and habitats are destructed by development, extinction possibility of species is getting higher. It is necessary to design and to manage conservation areas and corridors considering animals' movement and migration for sustainable species diversity in present circumstances. 'Least-cost modeling' is one commonly employed approach in which dispersal costs are assigned to distinct habitat types and the last-costly dispersal paths among habitat patches are calculated using a geographical information system (GIS). This study aims to design ecological corridor using least-cost path method and to apply it to a regional ecological network considering movability of medium-large size mammals. This study was carried out over the metropolitan area, which has been deforested by rapid urbanization. Nevertheless there is connected with Gangwon province, Baekdudaegan mountain range and DMZ, considered where many forest species can migrate to this region. This study employs such an approach to develop least-cost path models for medium-large size mammals, have inhabited for this entire region. Considering those species, two forest areas as a source of species supply and forest areas more than 1,000ha are selected as focal forest areas. Movement and migration paths from species supply sources to focal forest areas are calculated by applying landscape permeability theory using land cover map, road density map and land slope map. Results showed least-cost paths from species supply sources to focal forest areas on two species. Wildcat and roe deer are different in some least-cost paths caused by their landscape permeability but paths show generally same specifics. The result of considering regional distribution of expected movement and migration paths to regional ecological network, low altitude mountains of western metropolitan area are evaluated important area for species connectivity. In national or regional levels ecological connectivity is essential to promote species diversity and to preserve integrated ecosystem. This study concludes that developing least-cost models from similar empirical data could significantly improve the utility of these tools.

Analysis and estimation of species distribution of Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis with land-cover data under climate change scenario using MaxEnt (MaxEnt를 활용한 기후변화와 토지 피복 변화에 따른 멸강나방 및 혹명나방의 한국 내 분포 변화 분석과 예측)

  • Taechul Park;Hojung Jang;SoEun Eom;Kimoon Son;Jung-Joon Park
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.214-223
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    • 2022
  • Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.

Estimating distribution changes of ten coastal plant species on the Korean Peninsula (한반도 해안식물 10종의 분포 변화 추정)

  • PARK, Jong-Soo;CHOI, Byoung-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.154-165
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    • 2020
  • Coastal regions are experiencing habitat changes due to coastal development and global warming. To estimate the future distribution of coastal plants on the Korean Peninsula due to climate change, the potential distribution of ten species of coastal plants was analyzed using the MaxEnt program. The study covered the eastern, western, and southern coastal areas of the Korean Peninsula. We used the distributional data of coastal plants of the East Asian region and the 19 climate variables of WorldClim 2.0. The future potential distribution was estimated using future climate variables projected from three general circulation models (CCSM4, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR), four representative concentration pathways (2.5, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), and two time periods (2050 and 2070). The annual mean temperature influenced the estimation of the potential distribution the most. Under predicted future distribution scenarios, Lathyrus japonicus, Glehnia littoralis, Calystegia soldanella, Vitex rotundifolia, Scutellaria strigillosa, Linaria japonica, and Ixeris repens are expected to show contracted distributions, whereas the distribution of Cnidium japonicum is expected to expand. Two species, Salsola komarovii and Carex kobomugi, are predicted to show similar distributions in the future compared to those in the present. The average potential distribution in the future suggests that the effects of climate change will be greater in the west and the south coastal regions than in the east coastal region. These results will be useful baseline data to establish a conservation strategy for coastal plants.

Assessing habitat suitability for timber species in South Korea under SSP scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 국내 용재수종의 서식지 적합도 평가)

  • Hyeon-Gwan Ahn;Chul-Hee Lim
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.567-578
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    • 2022
  • Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year(2000-2019), near future(2041-2060), and distant future(2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future(2081-2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

Development of Species Distribution Models and Evaluation of Species Richness in Jirisan region (지리산 지역의 생물종 분포모형 구축 및 종풍부도 평가)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Soo;Seo, Chang Wan;Park, Chong Hwa
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2012
  • Increasing concern about biodiversity has lead to a rise in demand on the spatial assessment of biological resources such as biodiversity assessment, protected area selection, habitat management and restoration in Korea. The purpose of this study is to create species richness map through data collection and modeling techniques for wildlife habitat assessment. The GAM (Generalized Additive Model) is easy to interpret and shows better relationship between environmental variables and a response variable than an existing overlap analysis and GLM (Generalized Linear Model). The study area delineated by a large watershed contains Jirisan national park, Mt. Baekun and Sumjin river with three kinds of protected areas (a national park, a landscape ecology protected area and an otter protected area). We collected the presence-absence data for wildlife (mammals and birds) using a stratified random sampling based on a land cover in the study area and implemented natural and socio-environmental data affecting wildlife habitats. After doing a habitat use analysis and specifying significant factors for each species, we built habitat suitability models using a presence-absence model and created habitat suitability maps for each species. Biodiversity maps were generated by taxa and all species using habitat suitability maps. Significant factors affecting each species habitat were different according to their habitat selection. Although some species like a water deer or a great tit were distributed at the low elevation, most potential habitats for mammals and birds were found at the edge of a national park boundary or near a forest around the medium elevation of a mountain range. This study will be used for a basis on biodiversity assessment and proected area selection carried out by Ministry of Environment.

Effect of Cu Species Distribution in Soil Pore Water on Prediction of Acute Cu Toxicity to Hordeum vulgare using Terrestrial Biotic Ligand Model (토양 공극수 내 Cu의 존재형태가 terrestrial biotic ligand model을 이용한 보리의 급성독성 예측에 미치는 영향)

  • An, Jinsung;Jeong, Buyun;Lee, Byungjun;Nam, Kyoungphile
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.30-39
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the predictive toxicity of barley Hordeum vulgare was estimated using a modified terrestrial biotic ligand model (TBLM) to account for the toxic effects of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ generated at pH 7 or higher, and this was compared to that from the original TBLM. At pH values higher than 7, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ (half maximal effective activity of $Cu^{2+}$) between the two models increased with increasing pH. As Mg concentration increased from 8.24 to 148 mg/L in the pH range of 5.5 to 8.5, the difference in $EA_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ increased, and it reached its maximum at pH 8. The difference in $EC_{50}[Cu]_T$ (half maximal effective concentration of Cu) between the two models increased as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration increased when pH was above 7. Thus, for soils with alkaline pH, the toxic effect of $CuOH^+$ and $CuCO_3(aq)$ are greater at higher salt and DOC concentrations. The acceptable Cu concentration in soil porewater can be estimated by the modified TBLM through deterministic method at pH levels higher than 7, while combination of TBLM and species sensitivity distribution through the probabilistic method could be utilized at pH levels lower than 7.

Estimation on Chemical Water Quality Suitability Index for 4 Species of the Mayfly Genus Ephemera (Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae) Using Probability Distribution Models (확률분포모형을 이용한 하루살이속(Ephemera) 4종에 대한 화학적 수질 적합도지수 평가)

  • Bongjun Jung;Dongsoo Kong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.475-490
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    • 2023
  • Chemical water quality suitability for species (Ephemera strigata, Ephemera separigata, and Ephemera orientalis-sachalinensis group) of the mayfly genus Ephemera (Order Ephemeroptera) was analyzed with probability distribution models (Exponential, Normal, Lognormal, Logistic, Weibull, Gamma, Beta, Gumbel). Data was collected from 23,957 sampling units of 6,664 sites in Korea from 2010 to 2021. E. orientalis-sachalinensis occurred at the range of BOD5 0.3~11.1 mg/L (the best-fit Lognormal model); T-P 0.007~0.769 mg/L (the Gumbel model); TSS 0.4~142.2 mg/L (the Lognormal model). E. strigata occurred at the range of BOD5 0.4~7.4 mg/L (the Gumbel model); T-P 0.007~0.254 mg/L (the Lognormal model); TSS 0.4~17.1 mg/L (the Lognormal model). E. separigata occurred at the range of BOD5 0.4~2.6 mg/L (the R-Weibull model); T-P 0.007~0.134 mg/L (the Lognormal model); TSS 0.7~10.0 mg/L (the Lognormal model). Habitat suitability range of E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be 0.4~1.9 mg/L (BOD5), 0.024~0.086 mg/L (T-P), 2.5~22.4 mg/L (TSS); that of E. strigata was 0.4~0.7 mg/L (BOD5), 0.007~0.018 mg/L (T-P), 0.0~1.7 mg/L (TSS); that of E. separigata was 0.0~0.4 mg/L (BOD5), 0.000~0.015 mg/L (T-P), 0.5~3.1 mg/L (TSS). In a relative comparision, E. orientalis-sachalinensis was estimated to be eurysaprobic, and narrowly adapted in high levels of T-P and TSS, E. strigata was estimated to be oligosaprobic and adapted in low levels of T-P and TSS, and E. separigata was estimated to be stenooligosaprobic and widely adapted in low level of T-P and TSS.

Analysis for Efficiency in the Oyster, Mussel Aquaculture Household using SFA (SFA를 이용한 굴, 홍합 양식어가의 효율성 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyun;Park, Cheol-Hyung
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2016
  • This study applied the Stochastic Frontier Analysis to estimate which independent variable affects to efficiency of aquaculture household. This study used wage and facility scale as input variables, sales volume as an output variable to estimate efficiency. Also, the study used region, species, water quality to estimate technical inefficiency factors of the model. The data used for this study were obtained by the operating costs survey using 1:1 interview method. The study selected translog production model with technical inefficiency term estimated as half-normal distribution. In addition, the study used pearson and spearman correlation coefficient among efficiency estimating models. Also, the study analysed differences among estimated efficiencies through t-test, and showed us 0.1793 in species, 0.4677 between Geojae and Masan.

Applying Ensemble Model for Identifying Uncertainty in the Species Distribution Models (종분포모형의 불확실성 확인을 위한 앙상블모형 적용)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2014
  • Species distribution models have been widely applied in order to assess biodiversity, design reserve, manage habitat and predict climate change. However, SDMs has been used restrictively to the public and policy sectors owing to model uncertainty. Recent studies on ensemble and consensus models have been increased to reduce model uncertainty. This paper was carried out single model and multi model for Corylopsis coreana and compares two models. First, model evaluation was used AUC, kappa and TSS. TSS was the most effective method because it was easy to compare several models and convert binary maps. Second, both single and ensemble model show good performance and RF, Maxent and GBM was evaluated higher, GAM and SRE was evaluated lower relatively. Third, ensemble model tended to overestimate over single model. This problem can be solved by the suitable model selection and weighting through collaboration between field experts and modeler. Finally, we should identify causes and magnitude of model uncertainty and improve data quality and model methods in order to apply special decision-making support system and conservation planning, and when we make policy decisions using SDMs, we should recognize uncertainty and risk.

A Numerical Study of Smoke Movement by Fire In Atrium Space (화재 발생시 연기 거동에 대한 수치해석적 연구 - 아트리움 공간을 중심으로 -)

  • 노재성;유홍선;정연태
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.70-76
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    • 1998
  • The smoke filling process for the atrium space containing a fire source is simulated using two types of deterministic fire models : Zone model and Field model. The zone model used is the CFAST(version 1.6) model developed at the Building and Fire Research Laboratories, NIST in the USA. The field model is a self-developed fire field model based on Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) theories. This article is focused on finding out the smoke movement and temperature distribution in atrium space which is cubic in shape. A computational procedure for predicting velocity and temperature distribution in fire-induced flow is based on the solution, in finite volume method and non-staggered grid system, of 3-dimensional equations for the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, species and so forth. The fire model i. e. Zone model and Field model predicted similar results for the clear height and the smoke layer temperature.

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