• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.63-79
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• 2008

With the recent development of advanced GIS and complex spatial analysis technologies, the more sophisticated technologies are being required to support the advanced knowledge for solving geographical or spatial problems in various decision support systems. In addition, necessity for research on scientific crime investigation and forensic science is increasing particularly at law enforcement agencies and investigation institutions for efficient investigation and the prevention of crimes. There are active researches on geographic profiling to predict the base location such as criminals' residence by analyzing the spatial patterns of serial crimes. However, as previous researches on geographic profiling use simply statistical methods for spatial pattern analysis and do not apply a variety of spatial and temporal analysis technologies on serial crimes, they have the low prediction accuracy. Therefore, this paper identifies the typology the spatio-temporal patterns of serial crimes according to spatial distribution of crime sites and temporal distribution on occurrence of crimes and proposes STA-BLP(Spatio-Temporal Analysis based Base Location Prediction) algorithm which predicts the base location of serial crimes more accurately based on the patterns. STA-BLP improves the prediction accuracy by considering of the anisotropic pattern of serial crimes committed by criminals who prefer specific directions on a crime trip and the learning effect of criminals through repeated movement along the same route. In addition, it can predict base location more accurately in the serial crimes from multiple bases with the local prediction for some crime sites included in a cluster and the global prediction for all crime sites. Through a variety of experiments, we proved the superiority of the STA-BLP by comparing it with previous algorithms in terms of prediction accuracy.

• Proceedings of the KGS Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.35-36
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• 2005

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.12-25
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• 2009

The aim of this study is to analyze the periodical and spatial characteristics of urban crime and to find out the factors that affect the crime occurrence. For these, crime data of Masan City was examined and crime occurrence pattern is ploted on a map using crime density and criminal hotspot analysis. The spatial relationship of crime occurrence and factors affecting crime were also investigated using ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis) and SAR (Spatial Auto-Regression) model. As a result, it was found that crimes had strong tendency of happening during a certain period of time and with spatial contiguity. Spatial contiguity of crimes was made clear through the spatial autocorrelation analysis on 5 major crimes. Especially, robbery revealed the highest spatial autocorrelation. However as a autocorrelation model, Spatial Error Model(SEM) had statistically the highest goodness of fit. Moreover, the model proved that old age population ratio, property tax, wholesale-retail shop number, and retail & wholesale number were statistically significant that affect crime occurrence of 5 most major crimes and theft crime. However population density affected negatively on assault crime. Lastly, the findings of this study are expected to provide meaningful ideas to make our cities safer with U-City strategies and services.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.78-89
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of crime prevention in consideration of urban physical environment by analyzing the spatial distribution characteristics and pattern using actual crime occurrence data of the case city. The crime data was rebuilt by transforming them into geographic information system to analyze the spatial aspect of crime occurrence. The findings are as follows: a change from 2008 to 2011 is indicated with similar trend. But the local movements of crime hot spots are found. Moreover crimes were happening along the roads in linear pattern rather than inside of blocks in commercial area. This indicates the importance of environmental improvement of roads and open spaces. In addition it was found that the crime occurrence in a dangerous district can be reduced and prevented through the physical environment design and urban planning. The findings will contribute to promoting fundamental crime prevention as the physical environmental improvement in a city and to building a safe community as its result.