• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.99-114
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• 2015

What explains the sharp increase in the Chinese economy's indebtedness, in particular the China's onshore corporate debt? Has the overall debt burden reached a threshold where it poses a systemic risk, thereby making the economy vulnerable to a "Lehman Moment" - with disorderly unwinding of the private sector and sovereign debt? What are the short and longer term implications of China's growing debt problems on domestic economic growth and the broader global political economy? What has Beijing done to ameliorate the problem, how effective were its efforts, and what must it do to deal with this problem?

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.181-230
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• 2023

Evaluating the empirical validity of Modern Monetary Theory, this study implements panel cointegration analysis on annual panel data (2000-2022) of OECD countries. Specifically, the sample countries are divided into groups based on the presence of their own sovereign currencies, and for each group, the long-run equilibrium relation (cointegration) between the ratio of public debt or fiscal deficit and government bond rates is tested and estimated. Main findings are as follows: applying the pooled mean-group estimation for panel cointegration, it is found that both the ratios of public debt and fiscal deficit have significantly positive long-run correlation with government bond rates in countries without sovereign currency such as the Euro-zone or fixed exchange rate regime countries. However, in countries with sovereign currency such as non-Euro-zone or floating exchange rate regime countries, the long-run correlation is either negative or not statistically significant. Particularly, in countries without sovereign currency, the ratio of public debt has significantly positive correlation with the real government bond rates in the short run as well as the long run. These results are consistent with the prediction of Modern Monetary Theory, thus providing a supporting evidence for the empirical validity of the theory.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.50
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• pp.105-125
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• 1999

The results of analysis on foreign exchange market, stock and financial market after January of 1997 are that foreign exchange market will be affected by stock and financial market volatility about 1999. This means that stock and financial market are more stable than foreign exchange market. This also is supported by ‘financial market forecast of 1999 in Daewoo Economic Research Institute’. After won/dollar (end of period) will be increasing in 1,430 at second quarter of 1999, this is to downward 1,200 fourth quarter of 1999. This is somewhat based on government's higher exchange rate policy. But, after yield of corporate bond is to 11.0% at first quarter of 1999, this will be stable to 10.2% at fourth quarter. During the first quarter of 1999, yield of corporate bond is to somewhat increasing through sovereign debt and public bonds, technical adjustment of interest rate. After this, yield of corporate bond will be stable according to stability of price, magnification of money supply, restucturing of firms. So, stock market is favorably affected by stability of financial market. But, the pension and fund of USA, i.e., long-term portfolio investment fund, are injected through international firm's management. It is included by openness of audit, fair market about foreign investors. Finally, Moody's strong rating on the won-denominated bonds suggest that Korea's sovereign debt ratings could be restored to an investment grade in the near future. It sequentially includes inflow of foreign portfolio investment fund, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate (appreciation of won) and stability of yield of corporate bond.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.21-51
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• 2024

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the importance of nonbank financial institutions in macroprudential management has increased significantly. Consequently, major countries and international financial institutions have been actively discussing and implementing macroprudential supervision and regulation for non-bank financial institutions (NBFI). In this context, this paper analyzes the systemic risk of both banks and non-bank sectors (securities firms and insurance companies) in South Korea over different time periods. Using the widely recognized ΔCoVaR methodology for measuring systemic risk, the analysis reveals that systemic risk increased substantially across all three sectors (banks, securities firms, and insurance companies) during the Global Financial Crisis, the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the banking sector exhibited relatively high systemic risk compared to the securities and insurance sectors, the relative differences in systemic risk varied across the different crisis periods. Notably, during the margin call crisis in March of 2020, the gap in systemic risk between the banking and securities sectors decreased significantly compared to that during both the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, indicating that securities firms had a more substantial impact on risk in the overall financial system during this period. Furthermore, I analyze the impact of the issuance of equity-linked securities (ELS) by financial institutions on systemic risk, as measured by ΔCoVaR, finding that an increase in the outstanding balance of ELS issuance by financial institutions had an impact on increasing ΔCoVaR during the three crisis periods. These findings underscore the growing importance of non-bank financial institutions in relation to South Korea's macroprudential management and supervision. To address this evolving landscape, enhanced monitoring and regulatory measures focusing on non-bank systemic risk are essential components of maintaining financial stability in the country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.157-165
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• 2020

This paper estimates the optimum level of reserves in Vietnam based on the approach of reserves' cost-benefit and sovereign risk which is one of developing countries' characteristics. The cost of reserves is the opportunity cost when holding reserves. The benefit of reserves is the loss due to country's default in case that there is no reserves to finance external debt payment. The optimum reserves is found out by minimizing the total of opportunity cost and loss due to country's default with the probability of default. Through the usage of HP Filter method for calculating the loss due to country's default, ARDL regression for the risk premium model and lending rate of VND as proxy for opportunity cost together with the Vietnamese economic data in the period of 2005 - 2017, the empirical results show that the optimum reserves in Vietnam is almost higher than the actual reserves during the research period except the point of Q3/2008 and the last point of research period - Q4/2017. Therefore, Vietnam should continue to increase reserves for safety but Vietnam does not need pushing quickly the speed of increasing reserves. In addition, controlling Vietnamese optimum reserves is necessary to help the actual reserves become reasonable.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.15-25
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• 2020

This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2013

In applying Markowitz's portfolio selection model to the stock market, we developed a comprehensive investment decision-making framework including key inputs for portfolio theory (i.e., individual stocks' expected rate of return and covariance) and minimum required expected return. For estimating the key inputs of our decision-making framework, we utilized an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which places more emphasis on recent data than the conventional simple moving average (SMA). We empirically analyzed the investment results of the decision-making framework with the same 15 stocks in Samsung Group Funds found in the Korean stock market between 2007 and 2011. This five-year investment horizon is marked by global financial crises including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European sovereign-debt crisis. We measure portfolio performance in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio. Results are compared with the following benchmarks : 1) KOSPI, 2) Samsung Group Funds, 3) Talmudic portfolio based on the na$\ddot{i}$ve 1/N rule, and 4) Markowitz's model with SMA. We performed sensitivity analyses on all the input parameters that are necessary for designing an investment decision-making framework : smoothing constant for EWMA, minimum required expected return for the portfolio, and portfolio rebalancing period. In conclusion, appropriate use of the comprehensive investment decision-making framework based on the Markowitz's model integrated with EWMA proves to achieve outstanding performance compared to the benchmarks.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.17-37
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to investigate the global spillover effects through the existence of linear and nonlinear causal relationships between the US, European and BRIC financial markets after the period from the introduction of the Euro, the financial crisis and the subsequent EU debt crisis in 2007~2010. Although the global spillover effects of the financial crisis are well described, the nature of the volatility effects and the spread mechanisms between the US, Europe and BRIC stock markets have not been systematically examined. A stepwise filtering methodology was introduced to investigate the dynamic linear and nonlinear causality, which included a vector autoregressive regression model and a multivariate GARCH model. The sample in this paper includes the post-Euro period, and also includes the financial crisis and the Eurozone financial and sovereign crisis. The empirical results can have many implications for the efficiency of the BRIC stock market. These results not only affect the predictability of this market, but can also be useful in future research to quantify the process of financial integration in the market. The interdependence between the United States, Europe and the BRIC can reveal significant implications for financial market regulation, hedging and trading strategies. And the findings show that the BRIC has been integrated internationally since the sub-prime and financial crisis erupted in the United States, and the spillover effects have become more specific and remarkable. Furthermore, there is no consistent evidence supporting the decoupling phenomenon. Some nonlinear causality persists even after filtering during the investigation period. Although the tail distribution dependence and higher moments may be significant factors for the remaining interdependencies, this can be largely explained by the simple volatility spillover effects in nonlinear causality.