• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.23-29
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• 2022

Although tropical cyclones with wind speeds weaker than 17 ms^-1 (weak tropical cyclones: WTCs) can cause significant damage, particularly over the Seoul metropolitan area, only a few studies have focused on WTC activity over South Korea. In this study, we found that WTC activity is likely associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the negative phases of the PDO, landfall frequency of WTCs increased significantly compared to the positive phases at 95% confidence level. When related to the negative phases of the PDO, a positive relative vorticity anomaly is found in the northern sector of the western North Pacific while a negative relative vorticity anomaly and enhanced vertical wind shear prevail in the southern sector of the WNP. These factors are favorable for the northward shift of the genesis location of tropical cyclones on average, thereby reducing the total lifetime of WTCs. Moreover, a high-pressure anomaly over the Japanese islands would shift a tropical cyclone track westward in addition to the landfall location. Consequently, the effects of the topographical friction and the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water on a tropical cyclone may increase. These conditions could result in a weaker lifetime maximum intensity and landfall intensity, ultimately resulting in WTCs becoming more frequent over South Korea during the negative phases of the PDO.

• The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.61-72
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• 2007

The relationship between North Pacific chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) population and climate variability was investigated in the North Pacific ecosystem. Time-series for the Aleutian Low Pressure, Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices dating back to 1950 are compared with the chum salmon catch using a cross-correlation function (CCF) and cumulative sum (CuSum) of anomalies. The results of CCF and CuSum analyses indicated that there was a major change in climate during the mid 1970s, and that the chum salmon population responded to this climate event with a time-lag. The PDO and chum salmon returns showed a highly significant correlation with a time-lag of 3 years, while the AOI with a time-lag of $6{\sim}7$ years. The favorable environments for fry chum salmon might cause better growth in the coastal areas, but higher growth rate during the early stage does not seem to be related to the improved return rate of spawning adults. Rather, growth in the Okhotsk Sea or the Bering Sea during immature stages has a significant correlation with return rate, which implies the size-related mortality process. The development of a local climate index is necessary to elucidate the effect of climate variability on the marine ecosystem around the Korean Peninsula.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2001.03a
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• pp.92-97
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• 2001

The intra-annual and interannual variations of total, high, middle, low clouds, and cloud forcing net solar radiation flux, cloud forcing net long-wave radiation flux, and SSTs over the tropical oceans are investigated with the use of ISCP D2, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for January 1983-December 1993. The intra-annual variation of total cloudiness is dominated by high and middle clouds in the western Pacific and central tropical oceans, the interannual variation of total cloudiness is also dominated by high and middle clouds in the central Pacific and Atlantic. The dominant intra-annual and interannual EOFs of total cloudiness have spatially coherent link with those SSTs. For the interannual EOFs, total cloudiness and SSTs are related to E1 nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The second most important intra-annual EOFs of total cloudiness are related to Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). The third most important intra-annual EOFs show coherent relation in the western Pacific. The correlation analysis between cloud radiative effects and SSTs show spatially coherent relation over the tropical oceans even though cloud forcing cooling effect is much higher than heating effect.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.9-15
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• 2002

This paper presents the seasonal forecasting of the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) over Western North Pacific (WNP) using the generalized linear model (GLM) and dynamic linear model (DLM) based on 51-year-data (1951-2001) in TC season (June to November). The numbers of TC and TY are predictands and 16 indices (the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, the synoptic factors over East asia and WNP) are considered as potential predictors. With 30-year moving windowing, the estimation and prediction of TC and TY are performed using GLM. If GLM forecasts have some systematic error like a bias, DLM is applied to remove the systematic error in order to improve the accuracy of prediction.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.345-345
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• 2012

정상성 기반의 전통적 극한치 이론은 기후변화 및 변동에 의한 외부변화 요인을 반영하기에는 한계가 있음이 지적되어왔다. 따라서 강우의 빈도분석 시 매개변수의 시간에 따른 변화를 반영한 비정상성 빈도분석 방법이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 미호천 유역의 강우관측소 중 기상청에서 관리하는 청주 관측소 및 국토해양부에서 관리하는 가덕, 병천, 증평, 진천 관측소의 24시간 연최대치 강우자료를 대상으로 시간에 따른 경향성 분석을 하였다. 또한 자료의 경향성을 고려하여 비정상성 빈도분석을 하였고 외부상관기상변수로써 ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation)를 이용하여 비정상성 빈도분석을 실시하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.9-9
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• 2016

많은 연구들에서 단변량 수문 변량들에 대한 불확실성 분석이 이루어지고 있지만, 다변량에 대한 불확실성에 관한 연구는 아직까지 정확하게 이루어지고 있지 않은 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 갈수기(12월~4월)의 강수, 온도와 남방진동(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)과 같은 수문기상학적 변량들 사이의 시간에 따른 변동 구조를 조사하고, 식별된 패턴을 이용한 강우와 온도의 예측 향상 가능성을 살펴보았다. 수문기상학적 변수간의 시변성 구조를 이해하기 위해서 각각의 단변량 매개변수와 시간에 따라 변화하는 Copula 매개변수를 동시에 추정할 수 있는 Copula 함수 기반의 새로운 다변량 비정상성 모델을 개발하고자 한다. 강우와 온도의 비정상정 단변량 분포를 생성하기 위해 ENSO 지표 또는 시계열 예측인자와 함께 시변성 모델을 적용할 수 있다. 최종적으로, 확인된 시간 변동적인 구조와 연관된 종관 패턴을 나타내고 논의하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.392-405
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• 2019

Biogeochemical processes play an important role in ocean environments and can affect the entire Earth's climate system. Using an ocean-biogeochemistry model (NEMO-TOPAZ), we investigated the effects of changes in albedo and wind stress caused by phytoplankton in the equatorial Pacific. The simulated ocean temperature showed a slight decrease when the solar reflectance of the regions where phytoplankton were present increased. Phytoplankton also decreased the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude by decreasing the influence of trade winds due to their biological enhancement of upper-ocean turbulent viscosity. Consequently, the cold sea surface temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific and overestimation of the ENSO amplitude were slightly reduced in our model simulations. Further sensitivity tests suggested the necessity of improving the phytoplankton-related equation and optimal coefficients. Our results highlight the effects of altered albedo and wind stress due to phytoplankton on the climate system.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.49-63
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• 2016

In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.68-81
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• 2015

In this study, the correlation between the frequency of summer tropical cyclones (TC) affecting areas around Korea over the last 37 years and the western North Pacific monsoon index (WNPMI) was analyzed. A clear positive correlation existed between the two variables, and this high positive correlation remained unchanged even when excluding El Ni$\tilde{n}$o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. To investigate the causes of the positive correlation between these two variables, ENSO years were excluded, after which the 8 years with the highest WNPMI (positive WNPMI phase) and the 8 years with the lowest WNPMI (negative WNPMI phase) were selected, and the average difference between the two phases was analyzed. In the positive WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the eastern waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the East China Sea on their way north toward Korea and Japan. In the negative WNPMI phase, TCs usually occurred in the western waters of the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, and tended to pass the South China Sea on their way west toward the southeastern Chinese coast and the Indochina peninsula. Therefore, TC intensity was higher in the positive WNPMI phase, during which TCs are able to gain sufficient energy from the sea while moving a long distance to areas nearby Korea. TCs also tended to occur more often in the positive WNPMI phase. In the difference between the two phases regarding 850 and 500 hPa streamline, anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in mid-latitude East Asian areas. Due to these two anomalous pressure systems, anomalous southeasterlies developed in areas near Korea, with these anomalous southeasterlies playing the role of anomalous steering flows making the TCs head toward areas near Korea. Also, due to the anomalous cyclones developed in the tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, more TCs could occur in the positive WNPMI phase.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.29-44
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• 2008

This study investigates the influence of the developing and decaying El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the relation between typhoon intensity and its formation. From the long-tenn data of 57 years ($1950{\sim}2006$), we first defined the developing El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ years and the neutral years. During the developing El Nino years, the typhoon intensity has a strong relationship with formation region of the tropical cyclone, which results in an increase of the accumulated cyclone energy and intensity of energy of typhoon. During the developing El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year based on $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ 3.4 SST, the locations for the formation of the category 4+5 typhoon move to the eastward region. The genesis potential function and the low-level cyclonic vorticity have an important role on the formation of strong tropical cyclones, which eventually develop as a typhoon class. In this study, the dynamic potential (DP) function (Gray, 1977) and EOF 1 and EOF 2 time series (RMM 1 and RMM 2) of real-time multivariate MJO (Wheeler and Hendon, 2004) are used to measure the genesis potential and the low-level cyclonic vorticity, respectively. To investigate the influence of the developing and decaying ENSO, we defined the Type I case of the decaying El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ that turnovers to La Nina, and the Type II case of the recovering years to the neutral condition. During the decaying El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ years as Type I, the locations of the strong DP, RMM 1 and RMM 2 move to the westward more prominently to induce retard of the strong typhoon developing.