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Climate Variability and Chum Salmon Production in the North Pacific

북태평양 기후변화와 연어 생산력 변동

  • Kim, Su-Am (Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Kang, Su-Kyung (Cold-water Inland Fisheries Research Institute, NFRDI) ;
  • Seo, Hyun-Ju (Division of Marine Bioresource and Environmental Science, Hokkaido University) ;
  • Kim, Eun-Jung (Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Kang, Min-Ho (Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University)
  • 김수암 (부경대학교 자원생물학과) ;
  • 강수경 (국립수산과학원 영동내수면연구소) ;
  • 서현주 (홋카이도대학교 해양생물자원과학) ;
  • 김은정 (부경대학교 자원생물학과) ;
  • 강민호 (부경대학교 자원생물학과)
  • Published : 2007.05.31

Abstract

The relationship between North Pacific chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) population and climate variability was investigated in the North Pacific ecosystem. Time-series for the Aleutian Low Pressure, Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices dating back to 1950 are compared with the chum salmon catch using a cross-correlation function (CCF) and cumulative sum (CuSum) of anomalies. The results of CCF and CuSum analyses indicated that there was a major change in climate during the mid 1970s, and that the chum salmon population responded to this climate event with a time-lag. The PDO and chum salmon returns showed a highly significant correlation with a time-lag of 3 years, while the AOI with a time-lag of $6{\sim}7$ years. The favorable environments for fry chum salmon might cause better growth in the coastal areas, but higher growth rate during the early stage does not seem to be related to the improved return rate of spawning adults. Rather, growth in the Okhotsk Sea or the Bering Sea during immature stages has a significant correlation with return rate, which implies the size-related mortality process. The development of a local climate index is necessary to elucidate the effect of climate variability on the marine ecosystem around the Korean Peninsula.

북태평양 생태계의 연어(Oncorhynchus keta) 개체군과 기후 변동과의 관계에 대하여 연구하였다. 1950년 이후의 알류산 저기압, 남방진동, 북극진동, 태평양순년진동에 대한 지수들을 상호상관법(CCF)과 누적합(CuSum) 방법을 이용하여 연어어획량과 비교하였다. CCF와 CuSum 분석 결과는 1970년대 중반에 큰 기후변화가 발생하였음을 보여 주고 있으며 연어 개체군은 시간 지연 효과를 보이며 기후변화에 반응하였다. 연어회귀량은 태평양순년진동과 3년, 북극진동과는 $6{\sim}7$년의 시간 간격을 가지며 통계적으로 유의한 상관관계를 보였다. 연어 치어에 유리한 해양환경은 연안역에서 치어의 성장을 향상시켰지만, 초기 발생시기의 높은 성장률이 산란어의 회귀율과 관련이 있는 것 같지는 않았다. 오히려 오호츠크해와 베링해에서의 미성어 시기 성장이 회귀율과 상관관계가 유의하게 나타났으며, 이는 연어 개체군에 '크기연관사망' 과정이 적용된 것이라고 할 수 있다. 향후 우리나라 주변 해양생태계에 대한 기후변동의 영향을 설명하기 위하여 한반도 지역의 기후지수 개발이 시급히 필요하다.

Keywords

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