• 천문학회지
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.99-106
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• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• 한국의류산업학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.446-455
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• 2014

This study revealed the results related to the functionality of outdoor wear required when man and women in their 30s to 50s engage in outdoor activities. Based on the results of the survey, we proposed composition draft for a smart outdoor jacket with main functions of GPS device and light-emitting device using solar cell and EL. Absorption and release of sweat, functionality regarding rain and wind, and lightweightness, etc. from material functionalities of outdoor wear were found to be important. From function required in clothing for outdoor activity, location tracking, night glow, and lighting functions were found to be most important. For results investigating the necessity of the jacket's location tracking function and lighting function using solar cell, high scores of 3.9~4.0 were given. Purchase intentions for smart outdoor jacket with location tracking and lighting functions devised by this study were fairly positive and most responses indicated that the appropriate purchase price was between 200,000 to 300,000 won while possible problems of this smart outdoor jacket were listed in the order of washing inconvenience, high price, device weight, and discomfort in movement. The draft proposal to integrate with wearable devices for smart outdoor jacket prototype is as follows: Solar cell has been attached to the upper arm but placed inside a transparent pocket which has been detachable for washing convenience while the solar cell and controller have been integrated into a single unit. Using frequent movement exhibited by the arms, EL has been attached along the center line of the raglan sleeve for easy spotting when used as an emergency signal or for night lighting function during outdoor activity. GPS has been attached on the left sleeve so that the person can bend the left arm inward and operate the GPS screen with the right hand while walking or running outdoors.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.335-346
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• 2008

Using the global total electron contents (TEC) measured by the TOPEX satellite from Aug. 1992 to Oct. 2005, we investigate the variations of the longitudinal wavenumber-4 (LW-4) structure in the equatorial anomaly (EA) crests with season, local time, and solar activity. Our study shows that the LW-4 structure in the EA crests ($5{\sim}20^{\circ}$ MLAT in both hemispheres) has clear four peaks at fixed longitude sectors during the daytime for both equinoxes and June solstice. In spite of being called a wavelike structure, however, the magnitudes and spatial intervals of the four peaks are far from being the same or regular. After sunset, the four-peak structure begins to move eastward with gradual weakening in its amplitude during equinoxes and this weakening proceeds much faster during June solstice. Interestingly, the longitudinal variations during December solstice do not show clear four-peak structure. All these features of the LW-4 structure are almost the same for both low and high solar activity conditions although the ion densities are greatly enhanced from low to high solar activities. With the irrelevancy of the magnetic activity in the LW-4, this implies that the large changes of the upper atmospheric ion densities, one of the important factors for ion-neutral interactions, have little effect on the formation of the LW-4 structure. On the other hand, we found that the monthly variation of the LW-4 is remarkably similar to that of the zonal component of wavenumber-3 diurnal tides at low latitudes, which implies that the lower atmospheric tidal forcing, transferred to the upper atmosphere, seems to have a dominant role in producing the LW-4 structure in the EA crests via the E-region dynamo.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.89.2-89.2
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• 2013

Solar energetic transients, e.g., flares, CMEs, etc., release large amount of energy which is expected to excite acoustic waves (p-modes) by exerting mechanical impulse of the thermal expansion of the flare on the photosphere. We study the p-mode properties of flaring and dormant active regions (ARs) to find association between flare and p-mode parameters. We compute the magnetic and flare activity indices of ARs using the line-of-sight magnetograms and GOES X-ray fluxes, respectively. The p-mode parameters are computed from the ring-diagram analysis. We correct p-mode parameters for magnetic field, filling factors and foreshortening by multiple linear-regression analysis. Our analysis of several flaring and dormant ARs observed during the Carrington rotations 1980-2109, showed strong association of mode parameters with magnetic and flare activities. We find that the mode parameters are contaminated by the geometrical effect. Mode amplitude decreases with angular distance from the solar disc centre. The mode width increases with magnetic activity while amplitude showed opposite relation due to mode absorption by the sunspot. After correcting modes due to all geometrical effects, magnetic activity and filling factor, we find that the modes amplitude, and mode energy increases with flare energy while width shows opposite relation.

• 천문학회보
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.67.1-67.1
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• 2014

Comets are mysterious travelers from outer Solar System. It is considered that comets loose their subsurface ice once they were injected into a snow-line of the solar system, at the same time, develop adiathermic dust layers on the surface in a time scale of ~10,000 years. They eventually become inactive (see also the presentation by Yoonyoung Kim et al.). Optical similarity between comets and asteroids in comet-like orbits suggests the existence of such dormant or inactive comets supporting the evolutionary scenario. However, unforeseen accidents cast a misgiving to modify the stereotype. A periodic comet, 17P/Holmes, is known as comet with very low activity before 2007. However, the comet suddenly exhibited an outburst in 2007 October, which is known as the most energetic cometary outburst since the beginning of modern astronomy. On the other hand, another periodic comet, P/2010 V1, was not known before 2010 November probably because of low activity and discovered while it experienced outburst. We investigated the time-evolution of the magnitudes and the morphological developments based on the dynamical theory of dust grains, and derived the energy per unit mass of ~10,000 J/kg. From these observational evidences, we suggest that crystallization of buried amorphous ice (even in low-activity comets) can be responsible for the dramatic cometary outbursts.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.395-404
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• 2008

태양활동프록시(proxies)와 지구연평균 기온아노말리 시계열을 이용하여 기후변화에서 태양활동신호를 찾아보았다. 이를 위해 Lomb & Scargle의 피어리드그램(Periodgram)을 이용하여 태양활동프록시와 기온아노말리 시계열을 주기분석하였다. 또한 EMD(Empirical Mode Decomposition)과 MODWR MRA(Maxial Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform Multi Resolution Analysis)를 적용하여 두 시계열을 성분분해하고 이들 중 비슷한 주기의 특성을 보이는 성분을 비교하였다. 태양활동프록시는 짧의 주기의 파워가 긴 주기의 파워에 비해서 큰 반면 기온아노말리는 긴 주기에서 더 큰 파워를 보였다 EMD에 의한 성분분해 결과는 약40년보다 긴 주기성을 갖는 성분을 분해해 낼 수 없었지만 잔차 성분은 비교할 수 있었다. MRA에 의한 성분분해를 통해 지구연평균 기온아노말리 시계열에서 태양활동의 변화에 의한 신호를 찾아내었다. 1960년부터 2007년까지 기온상승에 대한 태양의 기여도는 39%로 계산되었다. 기후민감성은 출력신호의 진폭에만 관계하여 기후시스템이 간단한 2계미분방정식으로 근사될 수 있는 가능성에 대해 토의하였다.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2012년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.267-273
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• 2012

Solar reforming of methane with CO2 was successfully tested with a direct irradiated absorber on a parabolic dish capable of 5kWth solar power. And the new type of double-layer absorber-the front layer, porous metal foam which absorbs the radiation and transfers the heat from material to gas, and the back layer, catalytically-activated metal foam-was prepared, and its activity was tested by using electric furnace. Ni was applied as the active metal on the gamma-Al2O3 coated Ni metal foam for the preparation of the catalytically-activated metal foam layer. Compared to conventional direct irradiation of the catalytically activated metal foam absorber, this new type of double layer absorber is found to exhibit a superior reaction and thermal storage performance at the fluctuating incident solar radiation. In addition, unlike direct irradiation of the foam absorber, double layer absorber has better thermal resistance, which prevents the emergence of cracks caused by mechanical or thermal shock. The total solar power absorbed reached up to 3.25kW and the maximum CH4 conversion was almost 59%.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국태양에너지학회 2011년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.80-86
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• 2011

Solar reforming of methane with CO2 was successfully tested with a direct irradiated absorber on a parabolic dish capable of 5kWth solar power. And the new type of double-layer absorber - the front layer, porous metal foam which absorbs the radiation and transfers the heat from material to gas, and the back layer, catalytically-activated metal foam - was prepared, and its activity was tested by using electric furnace. Ni was applied as the active metal on the gamma-Al2O3 coated Ni metal foam for the preparation of the catalytically-activated metal foam layer. Compared to conventional direct irradiation of the catalytically activated metal foam absorber, this new type of double layer absorber is found to exhibit a superior reaction and thermal storage performance at the fluctuating incident solar radiation. In addition, unlike direct irradiation of the foam absorber, double layer absorber has better thermal resistance, which prevents the emergence of cracks caused by mechanical or thermal shock. The total solar power absorbed reached up to 3.25kW and the maximum CH4 conversion was almost 59%.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.99-104
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• 2022

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 전남 영암지역의 기상변화와 태양광 에너지 생산량의 빅데이터 분석을 통해 상관관계를 도출하여 태양광 에너지 생산 예측 모델을 제시하였다. 사용된 데이터는 공공데이터에서 제공하는 2016년 1월부터 2019년 12월까지의 영암지역의 날씨와 태양에너지 생산량 데이터를 사용하였다. 머신러닝 기법을 활용하여 기상변화와 태양광 에너지 생산량의 회귀분석을 통하여 지역의 날씨와 태양광 에너지 생산량과의 상관 관계식을 도출 하였다. 도출된 예측식을 적용하여 지역의 태양에너지 생산을 계산하였으며, 이를 생산지수로 표현하여 3단계로 구분하였다. 이 같이 구분된 3단계의 생산지수를 통해 향후 기후변화에 따른 태양에너지 생산량을 예측하고, 농업 활동에 있어 중요한 바로미터로 활용될 것이라 판단된다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2020

Recent studies have suggested that detectable ionospheric disturbances precede earthquakes. In the present study, variations in the vertical total electron content (TEC) for eight earthquakes with magnitudes of M ≥ 5.5 in the western United States were investigated during the solar maximum of 2013-2015 using United States total electron content (US-TEC) data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Analyses of 12 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.0 ≤ M < 5.5 in the same region were also performed. The TEC variations were examined for 40 days, including the times when the earthquakes occurred. The results indicated a correlation between earthquakes with magnitudes of M ≥ 5.0 and ionospheric TEC anomalies. TEC anomalies occurred before 60% of the earthquakes. Additionally, they were more frequently observed for large earthquakes (75%, M ≥ 5.5) than for small earthquakes (50%, 5.5 > M ≥ 5.0). Anomalous increases in the TEC occurred 2-18 days before the earthquakes as an ionospheric precursor, whereas solar and geomagnetic activities were low or moderate.