• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.591-598
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• 2018

Short term load forecasts complexly affected by socioeconomic factors and weather variables have non-linear characteristics. Thus far, researchers have improved load forecast technologies through diverse techniques such as artificial neural networks, fuzzy theories, and statistical methods in order to enhance the accuracy of load forecasts. Short term load forecast errors for special days are relatively much higher than that of weekdays. The errors are mainly caused by the irregularity of social activities and insufficient similar past data required for constructing load forecast models. In this study, the load characteristics of Lunar New Year's Day holidays well known for the highest error occurrence holiday period are analyzed to propose a load forecast technique for Lunar New Year's Day holidays. To solve the insufficient input data problem, the similarity of the load patterns of past Lunar New Year's Day holidays having similar patterns was judged by Euclid distance. Lunar New Year's Day holidays periods for 2011-2012 were forecasted by the proposed method which shows that the proposed algorithm yields better results than the comprehensive analysis method or the knowledge-based method.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권12호
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• pp.2202-2211
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• 2010

The wind power prediction system is composed of a meteorological forecasting module, calculation module of wind power output and HMI(Human Machine Interface) visualization system. The final information from this system is a short-term (6hr ahead) and mid-term (48hr ahead) wind power prediction value. The meteorological forecasting module for wind speed and direction forecasting is a combination of physical and statistical model. In this system, the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model, which is a three-dimensional numerical weather model, is used as the physical model and the GFS(Global Forecasting System) models is used for initial condition forecasting. The 100m resolution terrain data is used to improve the accuracy of this system. In addition, optimization of the physical model carried out using historic weather data in Jeju. The mid-term prediction value from the physical model is used in the statistical method for a short-term prediction. The final power prediction is calculated using an optimal adjustment between the currently observed data and data predicted from the power curve model. The final wind power prediction value is provided to customs using a HMI visualization system. The aim of this study is to further improve the accuracy of this prediction system and develop a practical system for power system operation and the energy market in the Smart-Grid.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권10호
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• pp.809-824
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• 2009

한정된 기간의 짧은 유출량 기록을 갖는 댐 유역에서의 수자원 시스템 거동예측은 수문학적 지속성여부에 대한 판단이 선행 되어야 하며 가용한 시계열자료에 대한 추계학적 분석을 통하여 실시하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 계절형 ARIMA모형을 통하여 안동댐 유역의 강우량, 증발량 및 유출량 시계열자료로 월별 수문시스템 거동을 예측하였으며, 예측된 결과를 토대로 TANK모형과 ARIMA+TANK결합모형에 의한 장기유출모의를 실시하였다. 분석결과 관측자료의 특성을 비교적 잘 반영 하였으며, 댐 유입량 예측을 위한 추계학적 결합모형의 적용가능성을 검토하였다. 이는 상대적으로 유출량자료의 보유년한이 짧은 대상유역의 시계열 수문인자 예측을 통한 유출모의의 적용으로 수자원의 중 장기 전략수립에 도움이 되리라 사료된다.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2017

본 연구는 국도변에 설치되는 화물차휴게소의 이용수요를 예측하는 방법론을 제시하였다. 연구의 진행은 기존의 수요예측 방법론을 검토하여 이를 보완할 사항들을 제시하였다. 연구결과, 수요예측 과정에서 우선 할 사항은 휴게소를 이용할 화물차를 단기주차차량과 장기주차차량으로 구분하는 것이었다. 또한 단기와 장기 등 주차시간에 따라 소요주차면수 산정에 적용되는 이용률과 혼잡률 및 회전율에 차이가 발생하므로 이들 영향요소를 달리 적용할 것이 요구되었다. 그리고 화물차휴게소에 입주하는 업체와 편의시설의 활성화에 따라 서도 이용수요에 영향을 미치므로 이의 반영 필요성도 나타났다. 이로부터 국도변에 설치되는 거점형 화물차휴게소는 고속도로변에 설치되는 화물차전용 휴게소보다 수요예측 과정에 주의를 기울여야 되며, 또한 다양한 영향요소들을 감안할 필요성이 제기되었다.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.247-253
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• 2011

A sustainability of electricity supply has emerged as a critical issue for low carbon green growth in South Korea. Wind power is the fastest growing source of renewable energy. However, due to its own intermittency and volatility, the power supply generated from wind energy has variability in nature. Hence, accurate forecasting of wind speed and power plays a key role in the effective harvesting of wind energy and the integration of wind power into the current electric power grid. This paper presents a short-term wind speed prediction method based on support vector regression. Moreover, particle swarm optimization is adopted to find an optimum setting of hyper-parameters in support vector regression. An illustration is given by real-world data and the effect of model regularization by particle swarm optimization is discussed as well.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2005년도 제36회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.810-812
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• 2005

In this paper, the short-term load forecasting of pole-transformer is performed by artificial neural networks. Input parameters of the Nosed algorithm are peak loads of pole-transformer of previous days and their temperatures. The proposed algorithm is tested for ore of the pole-transformers in seoul, korea. Test results show that the proposed algorithm improves the accuracy of the load forecasting of pole-transformer compared with the conventional algorithm.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1993년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부
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• pp.29-31
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• 1993

This paper presents Neural Network(NN) approach to short-term load forecasting. Input to the NN are past loads and the output is the predicted load for a given day. The NN is used to learn the relationship among past, current and future temperature and loads. Three different cases are presented. Case 1 divides into weekday and weekendday load pattern. Case 2 forcasts 24-hour ahead load. Case 3 searchs for the same load pattern as present load pattern in past load pattern. From result of forecasting, an average absolute percentage errors of case 1 shows 2.0%. That of case 2 shows 2.2, and That of case 3 shows 1.6%.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1997년도 하계학술대회 논문집 D
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• pp.914-916
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• 1997

This paper presents the development of an Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) for Short-Term Load Forecasting(STLF). First, used historical load data is divided into 5 patterns for the each seasonal data using Kohonen networks. Second, classified data is used as inputs of Back-propagation networks for next day hourly load forecasting. The proposed method was tested with KEPCO hourly record (1994-95) and we obtained desirable results.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.327-332
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• 2009

This paper proposes a method to improve the accuracy of a short-term electrical load forecasting (STLF) system based on neuro-fuzzy models. The proposed method compensates load forecasts based on the error obtained during the previous prediction. The basic idea behind this approach is that the error of the current prediction is highly correlated with that of the previous prediction. This simple compensation scheme using error information drastically improves the performance of the STLF based on neuro-fuzzy models. The viability of the proposed method is demonstrated through the simulation studies performed on the load data collected by Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) in 1996 and 1997.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1996년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부
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• pp.447-449
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• 1996

This paper describes an algorithm for short term load forecasting using the Kohonen neural network. Single layer Kohonen neural network presents a lot of advantageous features for practical application. It takes less training time compared to other networks such as BP network, and moreover, its self organized feature can amend the distorted data. The originality of proposed approach is to use a Kohonen map toclassify data representing load patterns and to use directly the information stored in the weight vectors of the Kohonen map to pridict the load. Proposed method was tested with KEPCO hourly record(1993-1995) show better forecasting results compared with conventional exponential smoothing method.