• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short selling

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Characteristic Analysis of Kospi Index Using Deep Learning (심층학습을 이용한 한국종합주가지수의 특성분석)

  • Snag-Il Han
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.16 no.1_spc
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2024
  • This paper examines the differences between the Korean and American stock markets using the Kospi and S&P 500 indices and discusses policy implications through them. To this end, in addition to the existing time series analysis method, a deep learning method was used to compare markets, and the comparison was made in terms of stock price forecasting ability and data generation ability. In monthly data, the difference between time series was not large, and in daily data, the difference in terms of stability was weak, and there was no significant difference in predictive power or simulation data generation. As shown in the results of this study, if there is not much difference in market price movement patterns between Korea and the United States, tax benefits for long-term stocks investment will be effective against the side effects of short selling.

A Study on the Long-run Equilibrium Relationship and Causality between the Prices of Fisheries Products at Different Levels of Distribution -Focused on Hairtail and Squid in Pusan- (수산물의 유통단계별 가격간 장기균형관계와 인과성 분석 -부산지역의 갈치, 오징어를 중심으로-)

  • 강석규;이광진
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 1998
  • Fisheries products in Korea generally go through three markets, namely the wholesale market at production site (Market A), the wholesale market at consumption site (Market B), and the retail market (Market C), from producers to end consumers. As the products move from Market A through Market B to Market C, the marginal gap of prices asked in these markets demonstrates an apparent relationship. The producers, middlemen, consumers, and governmental departments concerned may influence the marketing prices of fisheries products. This study employing the cointegration theory tries to investigate whether causality of the price-setting among these markets exists and, if any, what it is. The authors have focused their attention on fisheries markets in Pusan, analyzing the long-run equilibrium relationship and causality between the prices of hairtail and squid among markets at different levels. Data used in this study cover the period f개m August 1984 to December 1997 fer hairtail, and the period from May 1989 to December 1997 for squid. The main findings of the study may be summarized as follows: First, regardless of the price time-series of hairtail and squid in individual market, the first difference is necessary fur satisfying the stationary conditions since each time-series is a first integration. This means homogeneous integration of time-series, which is a requirement of the long-run equilibrium of prices at different markets, is satisfied. Second, the study of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices at Market A and Market B shows that a long-run equilibrium relationship does exist for selling prices of the two species at Market A and Market B. Third, the ECM (error correction model ) used here to describe the long- and short-run dynamics of price change demonstrates that, in the case of squid, the price change in Market A will lead to a corresponding price change in Market B in the long-run period. In the short-run, however, the price at Market H is not only influenced by the price change in Market A but influence the price at Market A as well, that is, the Prices between Market A and Market B have a feedback effect. It should be stressed that the limitation in data collection, which cover only two species of hairtail and squid, is likely to cause a sampling bias. Nonetheless, we may conclude that a dynamic relation in the formation of prices does exist in view of the transaction amount of species at different markets. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would not only contribute to a long-lasted debate on the direction of causality of price-setting among academic circle and fishing community, but would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of the price-setting of fisheries products as well.

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The Performance Analysis and Design of Selling Spectacle Lenses in Domestic Market (국내 시판 안경렌즈의 성능 분석 및 설계)

  • Kim, Se-Jin;Lim, Hyeon-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.355-360
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Analysis performance for spectacle lens which sales in domestic market and optimization design a spectacle lens which is corrected aberration. Methods: Measured center thickness, radius and aspherical surface coefficient for spherical and aspherical lenses which were ${\pm}$5.00D. Refractive index for every lens was 1.6 and they came from 4 different companies. I used 3 types of equipment to measure lenses. ID-F150 (Mitutoyo) : Center Thickness, FOCOVISION (SR-2, Automation Robotics) : Radius, PGI 1240S (Taylor Hobson) : Aspherical surface coefficient. Designed a lens which had 27 mm of distance from lens rear surface to center of eye, 4 mm of pupil diameter and small aberration on center vision $30^{\circ}C$. To shorten axial distance compared with the measured lens rise merits for cosmetic. Lens Design tool was CODE V (Optical Research Associates). Results: -5.00D aspherical lens had somewhat high astigmatism and distortion compared with the spherical lens. But it had a merit for cosmetic because of short axial height and decrease edge thickness. Improved a performance of distortion and ascertain merits for cosmetic due to short axial height and decrease edge thickness same as (-) lens in case of +5.00 aspherical lens. Though an optimization process front surface aspherical lens had a good performance for astigmatism and distortion and the merit for beauty compared with measured spherical lens. Conclusions: Design trend for domestic aspherical lens is decrease axial height and thickness to increase a merit for cosmetic not but increase performance of aberration. From design theory for optimization design front surface aspherical spectacle lens which has improved performance of aberration and merit for cosmetic at the same time compared with the measured lens. Expect an improved performance from design back aspherical lens compared with front aspherical lens.

Exploratory Study on the Efficient Operation of Parcel Delivery Network with the Growth of Online Shopping Industries (온라인 쇼핑의 성장에 따른 택배물류 네트워크의 효율적 운영에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lim, Hyunwoo;Lim, Jong Won;Yi, Hansuk
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.97-129
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    • 2007
  • The critical link between consumer-based internet ordering and the delivery of the product to the consumer is a key success factor in online shopping. Market areas of online shopping company implies the range of space where products ordered from online shopping can be physically delivered to customers distributed over space with reasonable shipping cost and lead time through the physical distribution network. The average rate of growth in online shopping is 36% per year in Korea for the last 5 years. But there are no maps available that describe sales/delivery density of online shopping, few researches are focused on the short-term/long-term adaptation to demand increase by online shopping. In this paper (1) Maps of trade area are described indicating the sales/delivery density around the nation. (2) Empirical researches suggested that short-term adaptation to demand increase resulted in price reduction and service in enhancement of service quality in local transportation. But the long-term adaptation on the parts of parcel delivery industry are to be investigated in future researches.

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Socio-Economic Differentials along the Ethnic Line among Coffee Farms in Central Highland, Vietnam (베트남 중부고원지대 커피농가의 사회경제적 격차: 민족성의 영향을 중심으로)

  • Chung, Su-Yeul;Lee, Sung-Cheol;Joh, Young Kug
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.360-377
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    • 2016
  • Since after the 1986 economic reform policy(Doi Moi), the central highland in Vietnam has transformed into one of the largest coffee producing areas. The transformation had been supported by mass migration of ethnic Kinhs from the coastal lowland. It did not take long for the Kinh migrants to be the ethnic majority in the region. Meanwhile the growth of coffee industry entailed in socio-economic disparity, specially between Kinh migrants and native ethnic minorities. The disparity has becomed obvious not only between coffee farming Kinhs and non-coffee farming ethnic minorities but also between coffee farming Kinhs and ehtnic minorities. The previous literatures highlight the lack of human and social capital and the lagging modernization in ethnic minority societies. However, they fall short in showing the explicit processes why ethnic minority coffee farmers earn less than ethnic majority counterparts. With a case study of Dak Lak province, this research attempts to show the reason why there is income gap between Kinh and ethnic minority Ede coffee farmers by comparing their ways of producing coffee and selling their products. The results show that Ede's land productivity is significantly lower than Kinh's. It is because Ede farmers use less fertilizer due to the shortage of the capital. Also they often get into debt for coffee production and should pay it back right after the harvest. It deprives them of chance to raise earning by selling the coffee beans at a higher price.

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Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2020
  • Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

The Rationalization of Distribution Structure in Diamond Market and Study on Diamond Grading System In Korea (다이아몬드의 유통구조와 국내감정 현황에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This study investigates the improvement of rationalization of distribution structure in Korean diamond market. It also explores the international distribution of diamond and how the distribution of Korean diamond market system was improved. This study also for providing the evaluation method in case of purchasing diamond on the consumers. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The research investigates how international diamond distribution market has been changed since 1933 by De Beers. The international Diamond rough stone has been deregulated in supply and demand by Debeers since July, 2000, therefore, the price maintenance policy of diamond market also has been changed. In the short term, the diamond price in market has been down, whereas, in the long term, the market share of Debeers has affected the high quality of diamond price in world market. Before 1985, both G color and VVS1 clarity were used as the level of percentages in the diamond certificate of authenticity in Korea. But, after 1985, the diamond certificate of authenticity uses Diamond Grading Report. Results - Between the 1970's and 1980's, Debeers had controlled about 80 percentages of international diamond supply market. But, Debeers share in diamond market fell by 60 percentages in 2000's. Debeers supplied 31%(4390 carets) of international diamond supply and 41%(39 billion dollars) in 2003. However, Debeers shares 50% of market shares in the diamond supply market by Alosa in Russia. In Korea, the diamond grading report system has been used since 1985. But, the diamond grading report system has price bubbles and much irrational parts in grading system methods. Conclusions - 4C, the grading system of diamond, is a method for comparing and evaluating diamond objectively. Diamond is graded according to its color, cut, clarity, and carat. The price of diamond is determined based on its each item. Consumers purchase diamond for the purpose of investment and wearing. In terms of investment, it is recommended to purchase diamond with color of D grade, cut with Excellent or Very Good Cut grade, Clarity of FL or IF, and more than 3 carat. As for wearing purpose, it is highly recommended for diamond to have color of F or G grade, cut of Excellent or Very Good Cut, clarity of VS2 or SI1, and more than 1 carat Before 2000, Central Selling Organization(CSO) distributed about 80 percentages rough diamond to world market exclusively by purchase, classification, assessment, and sales. After 2000, Dbeers diamond company looses slowly market shares, while Almosa diamond company etc. in Russia are taking over world market shares more and more. Debeers market shares have been falling over the years, and the international diamond markets are gradually growing by other international diamond companies. But, there is no change in Korean diamond market after 1980's. Korean diamond distribution needs to follow international level of Diamond Grading System. By using different grading systems with different panel members, Korean diamond grading system needs to follow international perfect grading systems to grow diamond markets and maintain within top 10 diamond markets countries.

Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

The Study of Characteristics of Consumer Purchasing Private Brand Products at Large-Scale Mart (국내 대형마트의 유통업체 브랜드 상품 구매 소비자의 특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Seong-Huyk;Lee, Jung-Hee;Roh, Eun-Jung
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • As having the movement of developing private brand (PB) goods, domestic big retailers are facing up with new problems. Thus, it is required studies of PB products, and how consumers recognize PB products as a consideration commodity set. Also, it is worthy in order that it gives us the important meaning on the marketing strategy with focusing on evaluating the differences between customers buying PB grocery goods with respect to demographic characteristics and purchasing behaviors. PB has some advantages for customers and retailers. However, according to AC Nielson's report (2005), Asian and emerging market has 1/5 sales relatively to Western countries. But we can assume that the emerging market has the most potential growth through this result. As a result from several other studies, it becomes necessary to not only increase the rate of selling composition of PB product temporarily, but also analyze the characteristics of customers using big retailers and segmenting customer groups to make PB product as a consideration commodity set for them. In addition, it is needed to have a variety of acts of marketing. From studies related to PB, there is a prejudice - cheap products have low quality - but, evaluation by customers who have used those products shows neutral stand, and there is a study representing that it is the most important to accumulate the belief between the retailers selling PB products and consumers using those for the accurate evaluation and intention on purchasing. Also, by the result from analyzing the characteristics of customers buying PB products, we could assume that higher income and higher education level, more preference on PB products. Especially, according to TNS's research, the primary targets of PB product are 30's who seeks value for money and planned spending habits, and 40's who have teenager children, and are interested in encouraging themselves. This paper used Probit model to analyze the characteristics of consumers. This model helps us to analyze with the variables representing the demographic characteristics of consumers (gender, age, educational level, occupation, income level, living area), and variables related to purchasing behavior (visiting frequency on big retailers, the average amount that they pay for goods in there, and check-up which brand made those goods). The method we used in this study is by man to man interview and survey on-line with the rate of 89% and 11% in Seoul and Gyunggi Province, respectively, for about one month from the beginning of February, 2008. As a result of this, under the assumption that people buy PB products more as long as they go shopping more, it was not meaningful for target groups which we pointed out as frequently visiting customers to be. Although, we have expected women buy more PB products than men do, gender doesn't mean anything for the result. And, it has inferred that married people buy more PB goods than singles do. It was also meaningless with variables related to occupation. Because housewives are often exposed to any kind of supermarket than workers are, we could not get any relatives. Moreover, we couldn't proof that younger generation prefer big retailers more than older people who 50~60's. Education levels doesn't affect on the purchase of PB product as well. Related to living area, the result is statistically not similar as we expected whether living in Seoul or not. It shows there is no relationship with the preference on retail brands and PB products, and it is similar with the study researched by TNS(2008) that customers tend to buy PB product impulsively no matter which brand it is and where they are even though their shopping place is the big market where customers are often using. Variables on which we had meaningful results are income level and living place. That is, customers who have 3,000,000~6,000,000 WON every month on average are more willing to buy PB products than other customers whose income is over 6,000,000 WON, and residents not living in Seoul prefer PB goods than those who are living in Seoul. To explain more about what we got, if there is only one condition about customer's visiting frequency on big retails, we could come up with this result that more exposed to PB products, more purchasing frequency. Consequently, it brings the important insight that large retailers have to prepare something to make customers visit them often to increase selling rate of PB products. To demonstrate the result of analyzing more, what is more efficient variables are demographically including marital status, income level, and residential area to buy items that affect the PB products and could include the frequency of visiting large markets by the purchase habits. Specifically, then, married couples rather than singles, middle-income customers than high-income customers, and local residents not living in Seoul than customers in Seoul are more likely to purchase PB goods. In addition, as long as a customer visits two times more, then the purchasing rate of PB products is to increase over 5.3%. Therefore, it seems that retailers are better to make a shopping place as fun and comfortable places. With overwhelming the idea that PB products are just cheap, one-time purchase goods, it is needed to increase the loyalty on those goods like NB products, try to make PB products as a consideration products set, and occur to sustainable sales. Especially, as suggested by this paper, it seems like it strongly needs to identify the characteristics of customers who prefer PB, to segment those customers, and to select the main target, and to do positioning with well-planned marketing strategies. Then, it is able to give us a meaningful point on marketing strategy by developing the field of PB study, identifying the difference of life style and shopping habits of customers.

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User Experience Analysis on 3D Printing Services and Service Direction Suggestions (3D프린팅 서비스에 대한 사용자 경험 분석과 서비스 방향제안)

  • Lee, Guk-Hee;Cho, Jaekyung
    • Journal of the HCI Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2016
  • Three Dimensional Printing (herein, 3D printing) not only gives novelty and interests to modern people but is also a spotlighted technology that could herald a new industrial revolution. The introduction of various 3D printing service platforms has enabled individuals to easily possess products designed through 3D printing. However, there are still many issues to consider until the era of new manufacturing, when 3D printing becomes available to the general public so that anyone can make and design products with 3D printing. For instance, there needs to be sufficient consideration and research on whether the current 3D printing services can prove their higher capability to produce products conventionally done by machines and hands through 3D printing, and on the meaning of selling a wide range of product families like those of most 3D printing service platforms to the consumers. This study, which was initiated in this context, aimed to gain insight on the directions that 3D printing services need to advance going forward by letting consumers have first-hand experience on 3D printing online service platforms with a wide range of product families and those with relatively limited services, and then asking them to answer multiple-choice and short-answer survey questions on the websites they wish to purchase from, diversity of designs, design satisfaction, perceived technical skills, perceived purchase satisfaction, perceived after-sales service(A/S). As a result, we were able to witness that consumers generally had a strong preference for services with a wide range of product families (e.g. Shapeways) compared to services with a narrow range (e.g. Digital Forming). We also verified that design diversity and the possibility of realizing the designs were the crucial aspects that need to be considered with 3D printing services. Moreover, we also carried out discussions on carrying out design consulting by securing a pool of designers from diverse fields, on providing web-based designing software that can be utilized even by beginners, and on operating shops both online and offline in order to provide more competitive 3D printing services.