• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short run

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A Study on the International Fisher Effect : An Investigation from South Korea and China

  • He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This paper aims to verify whether the Fisher effect and the international Fisher effect are significant between China and South Korea in the long and short run, respectively. Research design, data, and methodology - The annual and monthly data, respectively, are employed to conduct an empirical estimation under the fully modified ordinary least squares(FMOLS). The nominal interest rate is treated as an independent variable. The inflation rate is treated as a dependent variable. Results - The results exhibit whenever in the long or short run, the Fisher effect exists in China and South Korea. However, the Fisher effect in South Korea is more significant than that of in China. Meanwhile, an empirical analysis is also preformed to investigate the long-run and the short-run international Fisher effect between China and South Korea. The deviation from the equilibrium relationship is that the commodity market and the Financial market have started to integrate in China. But China's integrated level proved to be relatively lower. Conclusions - To exploit that the Fisher effect and the international Fisher effect hold between China and South Korea can help both countries deal with the sufferings from integration of the commodity market and the financial market.

TAR and M-TAR Error Correction Models for Asymmetric Gasoline Price in Korea (TAR와 M-TAR 오차수정모형을 이용한 국내 휘발유가격의 비대칭성 분석)

  • Lee, Yang Seob
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.813-843
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    • 2008
  • This paper investigates the presence of long-run and short-run price asymmetries in weekly gasoline prices from January 1997 to July 2008. In accordance with distribution channels, wholesale and retail stages are analyzed separately. An approach based on TAR and M-TAR cointegration tests, which entail matching asymmetric ECMs, is employed. For wholesale prices, asymmetries in the links with crude oil prices and exchange rates are found for both ECMs in the long-run and short-run. Exchange rates appear to play more significant role than crude oil prices in explaining the short-run price asymmetry. The rise in crude oil prices or exchange rates has statistically significant major impact on the increase of wholesale prices on the second week, not immediately as expected in the concept of 'rockets and feathers'. And asymmetrically, the fall does not have any statistically significant effect on the same period. The finding seems to be somewhat unusual. However, for retail prices, asymmetry m connection with wholesale prices is only revealed in the long-run. A symmetric price adjustment can be assumed in the short-run. Contrary to the long-run asymmetry found in the wholesale stage, in the retail stage, the speed of adjustment for negative deviations toward long-run equilibrium is faster than for positive ones, which is a phenomenon not favorable to consumers.

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The Statistical Design of CV Control Charts for the Gamma Distribution Processes (감마분포 공정을 위한 변동계수 관리도의 통계적 설계)

  • Lee, Dong-Won;Paik, Jae-Won;Kang, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.97-103
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    • 2006
  • Recently, the control chart is developed for monitoring processes with normal short production runs by the coefficient of variation(CV) characteristic for a normal distribution. This control chart does not work well in non-normal short production runs. And most of industrial processes are known to follow the non-normal distribution. Therefore, the control chart is required to be developed for monitoring the processes with non-normal short production runs by the CV characteristics for a non-normal distribution. In this paper, we suggest the control chart for monitoring the processes with a gamma short runs by the CV characteristics for a gamma distribution. This control chart is denoted by the gamma CV control chart. Futhermore evaluated the performance of the gamma CV control chart by average run length(ARL).

Long-run and Short-run Causality from Exchange Rates to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index

  • LEE, Jung Wan;BRAHMASRENE, Tantatape
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to test long-term and short-term causality from four exchange rates, the Korean won/$US, the Korean won/Euro, the Korean won/Japanese yen, and the Korean won/Chinese yuan, to the Korea Composite Stock Price Index in the presence of several macroeconomic variables using monthly data from January 1986 to June 2018. The results of Johansen cointegration tests show that there exists at least one cointegrating equation, which indicates that long-run causality from an exchange rate to the Korean stock market will exist. The results of vector error correction estimates show that: for long-term causality, the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, that is, long-term causality from exchange rates to the Korean stock market is observed. For short-term causality, the coefficient of the Japanese yen exchange rate is significant with a positive sign, that is, short-term causality from the Japanese yen exchange rate to the Korean stock market is observed. The coefficient of the financial crises i.e. 1997-1999 Asian financial crisis and 2007-2008 global financial crisis on the endogenous variables in the model and the Korean economy is significant. The result indicates that the financial crises have considerably affected the Korean economy, especially a negative effect on money supply.

Dynamic Causality and Impulse Response between Maritime Import Volume, Relative Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Regional Industrial Activity : Focusing on a Trade Port of the Jeonnam Province (해상 수입물동량, 상대적 실질실효환율, 지역경기의 동태적 인과성과 충격반응 : 전남지역의 무역항을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Chang-Beom
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to determine the short run and long run dynamics between maritime import volume (IMV), industrial production (IP), and real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Korean Won over the REER of certain major currencies (US Dollar, Chinese Yuan, and Japanese Yen) in Korea's Jeonnam province. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration results reveal that at least one cointegration vector or long-run relationship exists. Hence, this study estimated the long run equilibrium equation, which indicates that both IP and REER are inelastic, although the former is bigger than the latter. Moreover, the dynamic causality analysis reveals short and long-run unidirectional causality from IP and REER to IMV in all three models. Further, in all the models, the results indicate short run unidirectional causality from REER to IP. In addition, the impulse response (IR) results show that the impulse of IP and REER decayed after four months. Additionally, the IR analysis results indicate that the REER of the Korean Won over the REER of Japanese Yen is the biggest with respect to the impact of relative REER on IP, which is the proxy variable of regional real income. Thus, empirical results indicated that real income and REER play an important role in determining the Jeonnam's maritime import demand behavior in the short run and long run. More importantly, substantial actions reducing unexpected fluctuation of the REER and real income based on micro and macro economic policies will increase the imported volume in the ports of the Jeonnam province.

The Same Distribution Principle and Its Applications

  • Liu, Yumin;Xu, Jichao
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.20-29
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, the same distribution principle is developed based on the studies with many years for short run processes. The quality control philosophy and background of the principle are introduced. Some implementing techniques for the principle are presented, and application cases both in industry and evaluation & decision-making areas are shown.

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The Design of Control Chart Based on a Short-run Production Process (단속공정 품질관리도 설계)

  • 김종걸;정연승
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.217-234
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    • 2000
  • Approximately normalized control charts, called Q charts, have been given Quesenberry(1991) for charting in process of short-run, job-shop, etc. We consider a Q chart with inspection error for job-shop floor under geometric distribution, which can be used for processes when a fraction nonconforming is very small. Our results would be applied for designing other control charts with inspection error.

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The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Analysis

  • Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan;Wizarat, Shahida;Lau, Wee-Yeap
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2016
  • This study uses an endogenous economic growth model to determine the long run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in China by using the data 1975-2009.It contributes to the literature by developing trade openness index. An autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration and rolling regression method are employed. This study tests the link between trade openness and economic growth in the case of China by using the framework of endogenous economic growth model. This study also employs the rolling window regression method in order to examine the stability of coefficients throughout the sample span. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration technique and rolling regression method are used. The empirical findings indicate that trade openness (i.e. Both individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index) are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. Our results indicate that trade openness as measured by individual trade indicator and composite trade openness index are positively related to economic growth in the long run and short run. However, results from the rolling window suggest that trade openness is negatively linked to economic growth only for a number of years.

Adaptive Wavelet Analysis of Non-Stationary Vibration Signal in Rotor Dynamics

  • Ji Guoyi;Park Dong-Keun;Chung Won-Jee;Lee Choon-Man
    • International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.26-30
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    • 2005
  • A rotor run-up or run-down process provide more useful information for modal analysis than normal operation conditions. A traditional difficulty associated with rotor run-up or run-down analysis is the non-stationary nature of vibration data. This paper compares Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) and the wavelets analysis in these non-stationary signal analyses. An Adaptive Wavelet Analysis (AWT) is proposed to analyze these signals. Although simulations and experiments in a simple rotor-bearing system show that both STFT and AWT can be used to analyze non-stationary vibration signals in rotor dynamics, proposed AWT provides better results than STFT analysis. From the amplitude-frequency curve obtained by AWT, the modal frequency and damping ratio are calculated. This paper also analyzes the characteristics of signals when the shaft touches the outer hoop in a run-up process. The AWT can give a good result in this complex dynamic analysis of the touching process.

The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka

  • FATHIMA THAHARA, Aboobucker;FATHIMA RINOSHA, Kalideen;FATHIMA SHIFANIYA, Abdul Jawahir
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.37-41
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and Trade Balance. Trade Balance is used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Inflation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was adopted to test the stationary property of time series data, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model was employed to find the long run and short-run relationship and long-run adjustment, Bound test approach, the unrestricted Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data from 1977 to 2019. The research findings suggest that inflation has a positive impact on the trade balance in the short run. The exchange rate and the Gross Domestic Product have adverse effects on Trade balance in the long run. The coefficient of ER in the previous year is negative, and the coefficient of TB in the previous year is positive and significant. This is consistent with the J-Curve phenomenon, which states that devaluation may not improve trade balance in the immediate period, but will significantly impact the trade balance improvement in subsequent periods. Hence Marshall Lerner Condition exists in Sri Lanka.