• Title/Summary/Keyword: Severity of disaster

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A numerical application of Bayesian optimization to the condition assessment of bridge hangers

  • X.W. Ye;Y. Ding;P.H. Ni
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2023
  • Bridge hangers, such as those in suspension and cable-stayed bridges, suffer from cumulative fatigue damage caused by dynamic loads (e.g., cyclic traffic and wind loads) in their service condition. Thus, the identification of damage to hangers is important in preserving the service life of the bridge structure. This study develops a new method for condition assessment of bridge hangers. The tension force of the bridge and the damages in the element level can be identified using the Bayesian optimization method. To improve the number of observed data, the additional mass method is combined the Bayesian optimization method. Numerical studies are presented to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. The influence of different acquisition functions, which include expected improvement (EI), probability-of-improvement (PI), lower confidence bound (LCB), and expected improvement per second (EIPC), on the identification of damage to the bridge hanger is studied. Results show that the errors identified by the EI acquisition function are smaller than those identified by the other acquisition functions. The identification of the damage to the bridge hanger with various types of boundary conditions and different levels of measurement noise are also studied. Results show that both the severity of the damage and the tension force can be identified via the proposed method, thereby verifying the robustness of the proposed method. Compared to the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and nonlinear least-square method (NLS), the Bayesian optimization (BO) performs best in identifying the structural damage and tension force.

On the Linkage Between Irrigation Facilities and Rice Production Under Drought Events (가뭄사상 및 농업수리시설물이 쌀 생산량에 미치는 영향에 대한 상관 분석)

  • Woo, Seung-Beom;Nam, Won-Ho;Jeon, Min-Gi;Yoon, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Taegon;Sung, Jae-Hoon;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.5
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2021
  • Drought is a disaster that causes prolonged and wide scale damage. Recently, the severity and frequency of drought occurrences, and drought damage have been increased significantly due to climate change. As a result, a quantitative study of drought factors is needed to better understand and prevent future droughts. In the case of agricultural drought, several existing studies examine the economic damage caused by droughts and their causes, but these studies are not well suited to estimating crop-oriented agricultural drought damage and the factors that absolutely affect agricultural drought. This study determines which factors most affect agricultural drought. It examines meteorological factors and those related to agricultural water supplied by irrigation facilities. Rice paddy production per unit area is lower than the average from the last two years where agricultural drought occurred. We compare the relative frequency of agricultural drought impacts with irrigation facilities, effective reservoir storage, the number of water supply facilities, and the meteorological drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To identify factors that affect agricultural drought, we correlate rice paddy production anomalies with irrigation water supply for the past two years. There was a high positive correlation between rice paddy production and irrigation water usage, and there was a low or moderate negative correlation between rice paddy production anomalies compared to the average of the past two years and SPI. As a result, agricultural water supply by irrigation facilities was judged to be more influential than meteorological factors in rice paddy production. This study is expected to help local governments establish policies related to agricultural drought response.

Anthropometric Measurements and Dietary patterns of North Korean Migrant Children in China (연변지역 탈북 아동 및 청소년의 체위와 식생활 양상)

  • 장남수
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.324-331
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    • 2000
  • A deteriorating North Korean economy, coupled with a devastating natural disaster such as flooding and drought in recent years, brought about a severe food shortage and malnutrition problem which caused a migration of its population including young children to neighboring countries. We conducted a nutritional survey on a total of 436 children, aged 4-19 years old, who migrated to the China side of the border from July to September, 1999. The study subjects were interviewed by Korean-Chinese interviewers who were trained for anthropometric measurements and dietary surveys. Heights, weights, and chest circumference of the subjects were 70-90% of the South Korean reference values for the corresponding age and sex. Dietary intakes of the subjects were found to be extremely poor-the average number of food, mostly of plant origin, consumed in a day was 2.8, and the proportion of the subject who reported to take all three meals in a day while residing in North Korea was as low as 36.2%. Ninety five percent of the subjects had at least one clinical symptom related to malnutrition, 68.6% had 2-4 symptoms, and 15.1% had 5 or more symptoms. The results of this study provided an objective data for the first time on the severity of the food crisis and malnutrition problem that afflicted North Korean older children and adolescents as well as children aged 7 or under as previously reported elsewhere. the wasted and stunted children and youths prevailing in North Korea could exert a negative influence on the country's health and economy. More researches are needed in the future to investigate on the impact of malnutrition in North Korean children on the country's social, economic, and cultural state as well as on the health and nutrition situation.

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A Study on Target Standardized Precipitation Index in Korea (한반도 목표 표준강수지수(SPI) 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Seok;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1117-1123
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    • 2014
  • Water is a necessary condition of plants, animals and human. The state of the water shortage, that drought is globally one of the most feared disasters. This study was calculated target standardized precipitation index with unit of region for judgment and preparation of drought in consideration of the regional characteristics. First of all, Standardized Precipitation Index (3) were calculated by monthly rainfall data from rainfall data more than 30 years of 88 stations. Parametric frequency and nonparametric frequency using boundary kernel density function were analysed using annual minimum data that were extracted from calculated SPI (3). Also, Target return period sets up 30 year and target SPI analysed unit of region using thiessen by result of nonparametric frequency. Analyzed result, Drought was entirely different from severity and frequency by region. This study results will contribute to a national water resources plan and disaster prevention measures with data foundation for judgment and preparation of drought in korea.

Inundation Analysis on Coastal Zone around Masan Bay by Typhoon Maemi (No. 0314) (태풍 매미(0314호)에 의한 마산만 주변연안역에서의 범람해석)

  • Chun, Jae-Young;Lee, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Ji-Min;Kim, Do-Sam
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2008
  • Wrenching climatic changes due to ecocide and global wanning are producing a natural disaster. Coastal zones have been damaged by typhoons and accompanying storm surges. Severe waves, and destruction of the environment are adding to the severity of coastal disasters. There has been an increased interest in these coastal zone problems, and associated social confusion, after the loss of life and terrible property damage caused by typhoon Maemi. Especially if storm surges coincide with high ticks, the loss of life and property damage due to high waters are even worse. Therefore, it is desirable to accurately forecast not only the timing of storm surges but also the amount water level increase. Such forecasts are very important from the view point of coastal defense. In this study, using a numerical model, storm surge was simulated to examine its fluctuation characteristics for the coastal area behind Masan Bay, Korea. In the numerical model, a moving boundary condition was incorporated to explain wave run-up. Numerically predicted inundation regimes and depths were compared with measurements from a field survey. Comparisons of the numerical results and measured data show a very good correlation. The numerical model adapted in this study is expected to be a useful tool for analysis of storm surges, and for predicting inundation regimes due to coastal flooding by severe water waves.

Emergency and Permanent Repair Technology for Damaged Road Bases and Slopes using Gravel-Netting Concrete (도로 및 비탈면 유실 항구적 긴급복구를 위한 골재망 콘크리트 활용기술 개발)

  • Kim, Yongjae;Jung, Haekook;Kim, Seungwon;Park, Cheolwoo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : The frequency and severity of natural disasters such as torrential rain or typhoons have become increasingly significant worldwide. Events such as summer typhoons and localized torrential downpour can cause severe damages to a residential area and road networks, resulting in serious harm to the daily lives of people, especially in rural areas by isolating residents from road networks. An immediate and emergency repair technology for the collapsed road networks is urgently needed. This study introduces a new technology to repair road bases or slopes. METHODS : The development of new technology for emergency and permanent repair consists of first, packing of cement paste-coated gravel, second, combining appropriate equipment, and third, conducting a field applicability test. In this research, the compressive strength of cement pastecoated gravel, gravel-netting concrete properties, and packing efficiency were determined, and a full scale field mock-up test was carried out. RESULTS : The compressive strength of the cement paste-coated gravel concrete satisfied the required limit for road base of 5 MPa after 7 days. With appropriate netting materials and packing size, gravel-netting concrete was successful up to a slope of 1:1.5. The full scale field mock-up test showed efficiency in the field and penetration resistance performance. CONCLUSIONS : The new technology of emergency and permanent repair for damaged road bases and slopes, introduced in this study, showed satisfactory performance. The technology is expected to be applied in the field when construction procedures and quality specifications are made.

Prediction of Covid-19 confirmed number of cases using ARIMA model (ARIMA모형을 이용한 코로나19 확진자수 예측)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1756-1761
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    • 2021
  • Although the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, Hubei around December 2019, seemed to be gradually decreasing, it was gradually increasing as of November 2020 and June 2021, and estimated confirmed cases were 192 million worldwide and approximately 184 thousand in South Korea. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters have been taking strong countermeasures by implementing level 4 social distancing. However, as the highly infectious COVID-19 variants, such as Delta mutation, have been on the rise, the number of daily confirmed cases in Korea has increased to 1,800. Therefore, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases is predicted using ARIMA algorithms to emphasize the severity of COVID-19. In the process, differences are used to remove trends and seasonality, and p, d, and q values are determined and forecasted in ARIMA using MA, AR, autocorrelation functions, and partial autocorrelation functions. Finally, forecast and actual values are compared to evaluate how well it was forecasted.

Evaluation of Flood Severity Using Bivariate Gumbel Mixed Model (이변량 Gumbel 혼합모형을 이용한 홍수심도 평가)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ho;Chung, Gun-Hui;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.725-736
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    • 2009
  • A flood event can be defined by three characteristics; peak discharge, total flood volume, and flood duration, which are correlated each other. However, a conventional flood frequency analysis for the hydrological plan, design, and operation has focused on evaluating only the amount of peak discharge. The interpretation of this univariate flood frequency analysis has a limitation in describing the complex probability behavior of flood events. This study proposed a bivariate flood frequency analysis using a Gumbel mixed model for the flood evaluation. A time series of annual flood events was extracted from observations of inflow to the Soyang River Dam and the Daechung Dam, respectively. The joint probability distribution and return period were derived from the relationship between the amount of peak discharge and the total volume of flood runoff. The applicability of the Gumbel mixed model was tested by comparing the return periods acquired from the proposed bivariate analysis and the conventional univariate analysis.

Development of a Risk Assessment Program for Chemical Terrorism (화학적 테러에 대한 위험성 평가 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Younghee;Kim, Eunyong;Kim, Jinkyung;Moon, Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.63-67
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    • 2008
  • This study focuses on assessing the security ri sk or the terrorism in chemical process industries. This research modifies conventional method for assessing the terrorism risk. The risk assessment method is developed and it is implemented as software to analyze the possibility of terrorism and sabotage. This program includes five steps; asset characterization, threat assessment, vulnerability analysis, risk assessment and new countermeasures. It is a systematic, risk based approach in which risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the likelihood of adversary attack, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. The reliability of the program is verified using a dock zone case. The case dock zone includes a storage farm, a manufacturing plant, an electrical supply utility, a hydrotreater unit, many containers, and administration buildings. This study represents chemical terrorism response technology, the prevention plan, and new countermeasure to mitigate by using risk assessment methods in the chemical industry and public sector. This study suggests an effective approach to the chemical terrorism response management.

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A preliminary study on the determination of drought stages at the local level (지역 단위 가뭄단계 판단규칙 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jongso;Jeon, Daeun;Yoon, Hyeoncheol;Kam, Jonghun;Lee, Sangeun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.929-937
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to develop rules for the Determination of Drought Stages at the Local Level based on the drought cases in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do in 2022-2023. Among the eight drought indicators provided, six indicators (Agricultural drought stage (for paddy), Residential & industrial drought stage, SPI-12, Relative agricultural water storage, Residential water consumption change (for domestic use), Residential water consumption change (for non-domestic use) were confirmed to have statistical correlations with the perceptions of local government officials and experts. Additionally, this drought indicator was applied to a decision tree algorithm to develop rules for determining the severity of drought. Although it presented results similar to those of the existing method presented in previous studies, it showed a significant comparative advantage in explaining the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Gwangju and Jeollanam-do.