• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.100 no.1
• /
• pp.124-130
• /
• 2011

This study was conducted to find out appropriate model and forecast visit demand of korea national parks using seasonal ARIMA model. Data of monthly visitors uses of 18 korea national parks from January, 2003 to December, 2010 was used to analyze. The result showed that $ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)_{12}$ model was selected as a appropriate model to forecast visit demand of korea national parks and the result of post evaluation used by index of mean absolute percentage error was accurate. Therefore, the result of this study will enhance reliability and validity of forecasting technique and contribute to management strategy of korea national park.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 1999.07c
• /
• pp.1481-1483
• /
• 1999

Power distribution system planning for maximum customer satisfaction and system efficiency requires accurate forecast of future demand in service area. Spatial load forecasting method provides a more accurate estimation of both magnitudes and location of future electrical load. This method considers the causes of load growth due to addition of customers and per capita consumption among customers by land use (residential, commercial and industrial). So the land-use study and it's preference for small area is quite important. This paper proposes land-use preference estimation method based on fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic is applied to computing preference scores for each land-use and by these scores the customer growth is allocated in service area. An simulation example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
• /
• v.11 no.2
• /
• pp.177-181
• /
• 2009

Developing u-Public facilities for application u-City is to combine both the state-of-the art of the construction and ubiquitous computing and must be flexibly comprised of the facilities for the basic service of the building such as air conditioning, heating, lighting and electric equipments to materialize a new format of spatial planning and the public facilities inside or outside. Accordingly, in this paper we suggested the time pattern system for predicting the most basic power system loads for the basic service. To application the tim e pattern we applied SOM algorithm and k-means method and then clustered the data each weekday and each time respectively. The performance evaluation results of suggestion system showed that the forecasting system better the ARIMA model than the exponential smoothing method. It has been assumed that the plan for power supply depending on demand and system operation could be performed efficiently by means of using such power load forecasting.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.115-133
• /
• 2002

In this paper, 15 South Korean telecommunications service failure cases were analyzed. Through the in-depth case study, 8 factors were found to be the major causes contributing to the telecommunications service failure. They were (1) ineffective marketing, (2) poor demand forecasting due to misjudgment of customer preference, (3) failure to satisfy technical specifications, (4) loss of cost advantage due to the price cut of competing services or new entry with lower price, (5) loss of utility advantage due to the increased utility of competing services or new entry with higher utility (6) decrease of market attractiveness due to change of customer preference, (7) impact of government policy, and (8) insufficient or low quality of contents. Additional analysis was done to derive managerial implications to the new telecommunications service development strategy. The findings from the paper will provide valuable Insight to the successful Implementation of new service development and service provisioning processes.

• IE interfaces
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.709-716
• /
• 2000

In this paper, We analyze a capacity dimensioning and performance of the access line to the X.25 packet network when the AO/DI internet service is connected via D-channel. We show the forecasting methodology of the traffic demand of the D-channel internet services when the TDX-1OA switching system accommodates the target number of subscriber. Based on the traffic demand forecast, the required capacity of the access line is suggested to prevent bottleneck problem in the access line to the X.25 packet network.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2005.06a
• /
• pp.1379-1383
• /
• 2005

Introducing the market into the electricity industry lets the multiple participants get into new competition. These multiple participants of the market need new business strategies for providing value added services to customer. Therefore they need the accurate customer information about the electricity demand. Demand characteristic is the most important one for analyzing customer information. In this study load profile data, which can be collected through the Automatic Meter Reading System, are analyzed for getting demand patterns of customer. The load profile data include electricity demand in 15 minutes interval. An algorithm for clustering similar demand patterns is developed using the load profile data. As results of classification, customers are separated into several groups. And the representative curves for the groups are generated. The number of groups is automatically generated. And it depends on the threshold value for distance to separate groups. The demand characteristics of the groups are discussed. Also, the compositions of demand contracts and standard industrial classification in each group are presented. It is expected that the classified curves will be used for tariff design, load forecasting, load management and so on. Also it will be a good infrastructure for making a value added service related to electricity.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
• /
• v.34 no.3
• /
• pp.106-113
• /
• 2019

Mobile traffic is one of the most important indexes of the growth of the mobile communications market, and it has a close relationship with subscribers' service usage patterns, frequency demand and supply, network management, and information communication policy. The purpose of this paper is to understand mobile data usage in Korea and to suggest the optimal steps for establishing the frequency supply and demand system by researching the traffic trends that reflect the characteristics of radio resources in the mobile communications field. To achieve this goal, attempts were made to increase the possibility of policy use by analyzing and forecasting mobile traffic trends, and to improve the accuracy of the research through the verification of the existing prediction results. The paper ends with a discussion of the necessity of a frequency management system based on data science.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
• /
• 2022.10a
• /
• pp.439-441
• /
• 2022

This study compares the monitoring application for monitoring data predicted by the demand prediction algorithm and the web page of the construction site safety management system used by the power demand management application 'Hajumon' and U&E Communications. This study is two representative examples above, and it is possible to identify an appropriate application or web by comparing the difference between the web and the application's UI, advantages and disadvantages, and data supplementation.

• Journal of Distribution Research
• /
• v.1 no.2
• /
• pp.141-172
• /
• 1996

This study is to investigate global logistics strategies of Korean electronics companies. in terms of service parts. According to the survey, Korean electronics companies were pursuing multi-level global logistics network such as global, continental, national, regional and service center echelon for improving the efficiency of service parts global logistics. Especially there was a tendency of developing new continental distribution centers. And the companies were exploiting efficiency through inventory control by multi-level echelon, demand forecasting by the product life cycle and supply and service lead time management. But there were some insufficient factors for the efficiency of global logistics operation at the construction of worldwide real time logistics information system and pursuit of the efficiency on the whole network including subcontractors. For the future competitive advantage of the Korean electronics companies, the following are suggested: 1) the establishment of arranged logistics channel adjusting each company's global strategy, 2) the construction of worldwide real time logistics information system, 3) the reengineering of all logistics procedures such as order processing, shipping, inventory control, etc., 4) the enhancement of the ratio of the supply from the external companies and the internal manufacturing subsidiaries at each continent, 5) and the pursuit of operational internalization of external subcontractors.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.176-180
• /
• 2001

In Korea, the mobile telecommunication service market is expanding rapidly and becoming more competitive. For service providers in such a dynamic environment, it is very important to accurately forecast demand including market potential in order to work out marketing strategies. In this paper, we suggest a general approach to forecast the market potential using a multinomial logit model, which is applied to individual-level market survey data. Then we develop a dynamic market potential model that can adapt to changes in the external environment without requiring further market survey. The proposed model is applied to the mobile telecommunication service market in Korea.