• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.1-6
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• 2011

As large-scale building projects have recently increased for the residential, commercial and office facilities, construction costs for these projects have become a matter of great concern, due to their significant construction cost implications, as well as unpredictable market conditions and fluctuations in the rate of inflation during the projects' long-term construction periods. In particular, recent volatile fluctuations of construction material prices fueled such problems as cost forecasting. This research develops a time series model using the Box-Jenkins approach and material price time series data in Korea in order to forecast trends in the unit prices of required materials. Building information modeling (BIM) approaches are also used to analyze injection times of construction resources and to conduct quantity take-off so that total material prices can be forecast. To determine an optimal time series model for forecasting price trends, comparative analysis of predictability of tentative autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models is conducted. The proposed BIM-based time series forecasting model can help to deal with sudden changes in economic conditions by estimating material prices that correspond to resource injection times.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2002년도 학술대회지
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• pp.64-71
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• 2002

This research developed construction cost forecasting model using Building Construction Cost Index, time series analysis and Artificial Neural Networks. By this model, we could calculate the forecasted values of construction cost precisely and efficiently. And we also could find out that the standard deviation of forecasted values is 0.375 and it is a very exact result, so the standard deviation is just 0.33 percent of 112.28, the average of Building Construction Cost Index. And it show more exact forecasting result in comparison with Time Series Analysis.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2017년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.64-65
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• 2017

The existing hot and cold water supply system have a few problems such as construct ability, damage of the building, maintenance and the unequal distribution of water supply flow. So the system has needs to be improved and the Flow Equal Distribution System(FEDS) in series connection has been innovated by Idin Lab which relieve the existing problems. Thus, the purpose of this study is aimed to show the merits of FEDS with an real example of construction site of Wirye Terrace, D builder. 1. FEDS enables builders to save construction cost as the system in series connection does not need to equip both allotters and loop piping system. 2. FEDS contains a cartridge of water saving function so it mainly reduce the unequal distribution of flow and sudden temperature deviation of hot water supply at the same time. 3. FEDS allows repairer to maintain the water supply system at the same floor that could get rid of disharmony between dwellers who live the upper/lower story of the same building. Therefore, the FEDS will be applied when the building is remodeled and constructed.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2011년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회 1부
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• pp.177-178
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• 2011

Recently a great deal of people are taking legal action against the housing provider due to the defects of their Apartment house. And most of the housing companies are spending a huge amount of expenses and efforts to keep their brand value. This essay will carry out time series analysis the 20 housing district which are constructed by huge construction companies. This analysis itemised by metropolitan area(Seoul) and others to keep the degree of reliability, and converted future defect maintenance cost into current cost applied by discount rate to figure out suitability of defect maintenance cost. Even though, this essay is not able to represent standard of defect maintenance cost due to the insufficiency of record, while it will be assisted as a referance when long-term record of time series is estabilished.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

본고(本稿)에서는 현재의 경제상황을 잘 반영하는 건설투자활동(建設投資活動)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型)을 정립하고자 먼저 관련 시계열자료의 안정성(安定性) 여부(與否)와 순환성(循環性), 계절성(季節性)의 특성을 살펴본 후 여러 단기모형의 예측력(豫測力), 정합성(整合性), 설명력(說明力)을 비교 검토했다. 단위근(單位根) 검정(檢定)과 자기상관계수(自己相關係數) 스펙트랄 밀도함수 분석의 결과, 건설관련 시계열자료들이 대체로 단위근(單位根)을 갖지 않음으로써 안정적이고 주기적인 순환변동을 하고 있으며, 시차변수의 설명력이 높은 특성을 나타내었다. 또한 건설투자자료의 특성이 선행지표(先行指標)인 건축허가연면적(建築許可延面積) 및 건설수주액(建設受注額)과 아주 유사하여 건설투자 단기예측에 있어서 두 지표 사이의 시차관계(時差關係) 파악이 중요함을 알 수 있었다. 제(第)III장(章)에서는 단변량(單變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로 ARIMA모형(模型)과 승법선형추세예측모형(乘法線型趨勢豫測模型)을, 다변량(多變量) 시계열모형(時系列模型)으로는 첫째, 선행지표(先行指標)를 이용한 1차자기회귀모형(次自己回歸模型), VAR모형(模型), 둘째 GNP자료를 이용한 거시경제모형의 단순한 축약형모형(縮約型模型)과 VAR모형(模型)을 제시하고 이들을 비교 평가하였다. 이에 따르면 단변량 시계열모형보다는 다변량 시계열모형이 시간이 경과할수록 예측오차(豫測誤差)가 커지지 않는다는 점에서 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 다변량모형 중에서도 벡터자기회귀모형이 여타 모형보다 절대예측오차평균(絶對豫測誤差平均), 평균자승근(平均自乘根) 퍼센트 오차(誤差), 결정계수(決定係數) 등 모든 면에서 우수한 것으로 평가되었다. 이는 최근 건설투자가 추세에서 벗어난 급증세를 지속하고 있음을 고려할 때 타당한 결론이라 생각된다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.111-120
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• 2011

최근 도심지 고밀화에 따른 공간의 효율적 이용이 요구됨에 따라 대규모의 고층 사무공간이 증가하고 있으며, 이와 함께 주거, 상업, 문화 등 다양한 기능을 밀접하게 연관시킨 고층 복합시설도 점차 늘어가고 있다. 이러한 대형 건설, 프로젝트는 긴 공사기간이 소요되어 공사비 예측이 쉽지 않으며, 막대한 비용이 투입되기 때문에 비용 예측의 중요성이 더욱 증대되고 있다. 이러한 상황에서 최근 극심한 경제변화에 따른 건설자재가격의 변동은 자재비를 포함한 공사비 예측을 어렵게 만드는 주요 원인이다. 따라서 본 연구는 건설자재단가 시계열자료를 활용, 미래의 자재단가 예측을 위한 시계열모델을 구축하고 복잡한 모델 프로세스를 간소화하는 자재별 최적 예측모델 도출시스템을 구축한다. 또한 Building Information Modeling(BIM)의 접근을 통해 자재의 투입시기 및 투입물량을 분석, 시계열모델을 통해 예측한 자재단가 예측 값과 조합함으로써 총 자재비를 포함하는 BIM기반 공사원가 예측 시계열모델을 제시한다. 본 연구는 시계열모델의 하나인 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)모델에 대한 예측력 비교를 통해 자재단가 예측을 위한 적합모델을 도출하였다. BIM기반의 원가예측 시계열모델은 자재의 투입시기별 자재단가 변동치를 예측함으로써 급변하는 경제 환경 변화에 대처할 수 있는 도구가 될 것이다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제27권11호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2013

This paper proposes the boost type bidirectional zero current switching(ZCS) DC/DC converter of transformer series construction for electric vehicle operation using low voltage battery. This converter can high boost through the double voltage circuit and series construction of output part using two converters. This converter system has the advantages that bidirectional power transfer is excellent, size and making of transformer because of this converter keeps the transformation ratio to 1:1. Proposed DC/DC converter uses the ZCS method to decrease the switching loss. By replacing reactance ingredients of L-C resonance circuit for ZCS with leakage inductance ingredients of high frequency transformer and half-bridge capacitor it reduces system size and expense because of not add special reactor. It can confirm to output of high voltage to operate the electric vehicle with low voltage of input and operation of ZCS in all load region through the result of PSIM simulation and experiment.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2014년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.14-15
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• 2014

The modular construction is as yet early stage of market in Korea. So It is have difficulty of market demand forecast of the modular building. Therefore, this study was done analysis for market trends of the modular building using ARIMA(Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model by time series data.

• 대한수학회논문집
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.73-79
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• 2015

Todd series are associated to maximal non-degenerate lattice cones. The coefficients of Todd series of a particular class of lattice cones are closely related to generalized Dedekind sums of higher dimension. We generalize this construction and obtain an explicit formula for coefficients of the Todd series. It turns out that every maximal non-degenerate lattice cone, hence the associated Todd series can be obtained in this way.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.1017-1023
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• 2022

Past research shows that the construction of new infrastructure accelerates economic growth in the region by attracting more people and commodities. However, the previous studies only considered large-scale infrastructures such as sea-cross bridges and channel tunnels. There is a paucity of literature on regional infrastructure and its impact on socio-economic indicators. This paper explores the impact of new bridge construction on the human population, particularly focusing on regional bridges constructed during the 2000s in the state of Georgia. The human population at a county level was selected as a single socio-economic factor to be evaluated. A total of 124 cases were investigated as to whether the emergence of a new bridge affected the population change. The interrupted time series analysis was used to statistically examine the significance of population change due to the construction by treating each new bridge as an intervention event. The results show that, out of the 124 cases, the population of 67 cases significantly increased after the bridge construction, while the population of 57 cases was not affected by the construction at a significance level of 0.05. The 124 cases were also analyzed by route type, functional class, and traffic volume, but the results revealed, unlike large-scale infrastructure, that no clear evidence was found that a new bridge would bring an increase in the human population at a county level.