• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

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Application of POD reduced-order algorithm on data-driven modeling of rod bundle

  • Kang, Huilun;Tian, Zhaofei;Chen, Guangliang;Li, Lei;Wang, Tianyu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.36-48
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    • 2022
  • As a valid numerical method to obtain a high-resolution result of a flow field, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) have been widely used to study coolant flow and heat transfer characteristics in fuel rod bundles. However, the time-consuming, iterative calculation of Navier-Stokes equations makes CFD unsuitable for the scenarios that require efficient simulation such as sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. To solve this problem, a reduced-order model (ROM) based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and machine learning (ML) is proposed to simulate the flow field efficiently. Firstly, a validated CFD model to output the flow field data set of the rod bundle is established. Secondly, based on the POD method, the modes and corresponding coefficients of the flow field were extracted. Then, an deep feed-forward neural network, due to its efficiency in approximating arbitrary functions and its ability to handle high-dimensional and strong nonlinear problems, is selected to build a model that maps the non-linear relationship between the mode coefficients and the boundary conditions. A trained surrogate model for modes coefficients prediction is obtained after a certain number of training iterations. Finally, the flow field is reconstructed by combining the product of the POD basis and coefficients. Based on the test dataset, an evaluation of the ROM is carried out. The evaluation results show that the proposed POD-ROM accurately describe the flow status of the fluid field in rod bundles with high resolution in only a few milliseconds.

An assessment of the applicability of multigroup cross sections generated with Monte Carlo method for fast reactor analysis

  • Lin, Ching-Sheng;Yang, Won Sik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.2733-2742
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents an assessment of applicability of the multigroup cross sections generated with Monte Carlo tools to the fast reactor analysis based on transport calculations. 33-group cross section sets were generated for simple one- (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) sodium-cooled fast reactor problems using the SERPENT code and applied to deterministic steady-state and depletion calculations. Relative to the reference continuous-energy SERPENT results, with the transport corrected P0 scattering cross section, the k-eff value was overestimated by 506 and 588 pcm for 1-D and 2-D problems, respectively, since anisotropic scattering is important in fast reactors. When the scattering order was increased to P5, the 1-D and 2-D problem errors were increased to 577 and 643 pcm, respectively. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with the PERSENT code indicated that these large k-eff errors cannot be attributed to the statistical uncertainties of cross sections and they are likely due to the approximate anisotropic scattering matrices determined by scalar flux weighting. The anisotropic scattering cross sections were alternatively generated using the MC2-3 code and merged with the SERPENT cross sections. The mixed cross section set consistently reduced the errors in k-eff, assembly powers, and nuclide densities. For example, in the 2-D calculation with P3 scattering order, the k-eff error was reduced from 634 pcm to -223 pcm. The maximum error in assembly power was reduced from 2.8% to 0.8% and the RMS error was reduced from 1.4% to 0.4%. The maximum error in the nuclide densities at the end of 12-month depletion that occurred in 237Np was reduced from 3.4% to 1.5%. The errors of the other nuclides are also reduced consistently, for example, from 1.1% to 0.1% for 235U, from 2.2% to 0.7% for 238Pu, and from 1.6% to 0.2% for 241Pu. These results indicate that the scalar flux weighted anisotropic scattering cross sections of SERPENT may not be adequate for application to fast reactors where anisotropic scattering is important.

Systematic intraoperative cholangiography during elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy: Is it a justifiable practice?

  • Francesco Esposito;Iolanda Scoleri;Rafika Cattan;Marie Cecile Cook;Dorin Sacrieru;Nouredine Meziani;Marco Del Prete;Morad Kabbej
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.166-171
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: Routine execution of intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) in laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is considered a good practice to help early identification of biliary duct injuries (BDIs) or common bile duct (CBD) stones. This study aimed to determine the impact of IOC during LC. Methods: This is a retrospective, monocentric study, including patients with a LC performed from January 2020 to December 2021. Results: Of 303 patients, 215 (71.0%) were in the IOC group and 88 (29.0%) in the no-IOC group. IOC was incomplete or unclear in 10.7% of patients, with a failure rate of 14.7%. Operating time was 15 minutes longer in the IOC group (p = 0.01), and postoperative complications were higher (5.1% vs. 0.0%, p = 0.03). There were three BDIs (0.99%), all included in the IOC group; only one was diagnosed intraoperatively, and the other two were identified during the postoperative course. Regarding identifying CBD stones, IOC showed a sensitivity of 77%, a specificity of 98%, an accuracy of 97.2%, a positive predictive value of 63% and a negative predictive value of 99%. Conclusions: Systematic IOC has shown no specific benefits and prolonged operative duration. IOC should be performed on selected patients or in situations of uncertainty on the anatomy.

Exposure Assessment and Health Risk of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether (PBDE) Flame Retardants in Indoor Environments of Children's Facilities in Korea

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Yun-Suk;Lee, Yong-Jin;Lee, Chung-Soo;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.247-262
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    • 2011
  • This study assessed the health risks of childhood exposure to PBDEs via different possible pathways in children's facilities and indoor playgrounds. When PBDE contamination was measured, it was determined through multiple routes, including inhalation of indoor dust, dermal contact with product surfaces and children's hands, and incidental dust ingestion. Samples were collected from various children's facilities (playrooms, daycare centers, kindergartens, and indoor playgrounds) during summer (Jul-Sep, 2007) and winter (Jan-Feb, 2008). The hazard index (HI) was estimated for non-carcinogens, and PBDEs, such as TeBDE, PeBDE, HxBDE, and DeBDE, were examined. The sensitivity to the compounds did not exceed 1.0 (HI) for any of the subjects in any facility. However, current data about toxicity does not reflect effects that were fully sensitive in children, so there is uncertainty in the dose-response data. The contribution rates of PBDEs were 71.4 to 96.1% and 3.7 to 28.2% for intake and inhalation exposure, respectively, indicating that intake of floor dust and inhalation are the primary routes.

Economic Feasibility Analysis for Introducing Integrated Management System for Supporting Underground Construction (지하구조물건설 현장지원 통합관리시스템 도입을 위한 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Baek, Hyeon Gi;Jang, Yong Gu;Seo, Jong Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2010
  • Underground construction for traffic networks, complexes, and storage facilities has risen as an effective land use plan for dealing with emerging problems such as overcrowded urban cities and traffic jams. This paper performed an economic feasibility analysis of the development of the integrated field management system which provides field workers and managers with 3D-based location tracking and clear communication during underground construction works. To conduct the analysis, processes and problems of field management for underground construction were analyzed and deduction in accidents and field management costs and productivity improvement were estimated as expected benefits. Based on computed benefits and costs, an economic analysis was conducted using Benefit/Cost ratio(B/C), Net Present Value(NPV), and Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and then sensitivity analysis was performed to cope with the uncertainty of assumed variables.

COSMIC STAR FORMATION HISTORY AND AGN EVOLUTION NEAR AND FAR: AKARI REVEALS BOTH

  • Goto, Tomotsugu;AKARI NEP team, AKARI NEP team;AKARI all sky survey team, AKARI all sky survey team
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.347-352
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    • 2012
  • Understanding infrared (IR) luminosity is fundamental to understanding the cosmic star formation history and AGN evolution, since their most intense stages are often obscured by dust. Japanese infrared satellite, AKARI, provided unique data sets to probe this both at low and high redshifts. The AKARI performed an all sky survey in 6 IR bands (9, 18, 65, 90, 140, and $160{\mu}m$) with 3-10 times better sensitivity than IRAS, covering the crucial far-IR wavelengths across the peak of the dust emission. Combined with a better spatial resolution, AKARI can measure the total infrared luminosity ($L_{TIR}$) of individual galaxies much more precisely, and thus, the total infrared luminosity density of the local Universe. In the AKARI NEP deep field, we construct restframe $8{\mu}m$, $12{\mu}m$, and total infrared (TIR) luminosity functions (LFs) at 0.15 < z < 2.2 using 4,128 infrared sources. A continuous filter coverage in the mid-IR wavelength (2.4, 3.2, 4.1, 7, 9, 11, 15, 18, and $24{\mu}m$) by the AKARI satellite allows us to estimate restframe $8{\mu}m$ and $12{\mu}m$ luminosities without using a large extrapolation based on a SED fit, which was the largest uncertainty in previous work. By combining these two results, we reveal dust-hidden cosmic star formation history and AGN evolution from z = 0 to z = 2.2, all probed by the AKARI satellite.

Development of Regression Model to evaluate the indirect costs of Life-Cycle Costs (생애주기비용의 간접비용 산출을 위한 Regression Model의 개발)

  • 조효남;이종순;김충완;박경훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2004
  • Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

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Species Distribution Modeling of Endangered Mammals for Ecosystem Services Valuation - Focused on National Ecosystem Survey Data - (생태계 서비스 가치평가를 위한 멸종위기 포유류의 종분포 연구 - 전국자연환경조사 자료를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Jaeuk;Jung, Huicheul;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Kim, Joon-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.111-122
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    • 2014
  • The provided habitat of many services from natural capital is important. But because most ecosystem services tools qualitatively evaluated biodiversity or habitat quality, this study quantitatively analyzed those aspects using the species distribution model (MaxEnt). This study used location point data of the goat(Naemorhedus caudatus), marten(Martes flavigula), leopard cat(Prionailurus bengalensis), flying squirrel(Pteromys volans aluco) and otter(Lutra lutra) from the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey. Input data utilized DEM, landcover classification maps, Forest-types map and digital topographic maps. This study generated the MaxEnt model, randomly setting 70% of the presences as training data, with the remaining 30% used as test data, and ran five cross-validated replicates for each model. The threshold indicating maximum training sensitivity plus specificity was considered as a more robust approach, so this study used it to conduct the distribution into presence(1)-absence(0) predictions and totalled up a value of 5 times for uncertainty reduction. The test data's ROC curve of endangered mammals was as follows: growing down goat(0.896), otter(0.857), flying squirrel(0.738), marten(0.725), and leopard cat(0.629). This study was divided into two groups based on habitat: the first group consisted of the goat, marten, leopard cat and flying squirrel in the forest; and the second group consisted of the otter in the river. More than 60 percent of endangered mammals' distribution probability were 56.9% in the forest and 12.7% in the river. A future study is needed to conduct other species' distribution modeling exclusive of mammals and to develop a collection method of field survey data.

Development of Real-Time Optimal Bus Scheduling Models (실시간 버스 운행계획수립 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Wongil;Son, Bongsoo;Chung, Jin-Hyuk;Lee, Jeomho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5D
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    • pp.587-595
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    • 2008
  • Many studies on bus scheduling optimization have been done from the 1960s to recent years for establishing rational bus schedule plan that can improve convenience of bus passengers and minimize unnecessary runs. After 2000, as part of the Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), the importance of the schedule management and providing schedule information through bus schedule optimization has become a big issue, and much research is being done to develop optimization models that will increase bus passenger convenience and, on the side of bus management, minimize unnecessary bus operation. The purpose of this study is to calculate the optimal bus frequency and create a timetable for each bus stop by applying DTR or DTRC model that use data for each bus stop and route segment. Model verification process was implemented using data collected from bus management system (BMS) and integrated transit-fare card system for bus route of Seoul's No. 472 line. In order to evaluate the reliability and uncertainty of optimal solution, sensitivity analysis was implemented for the various parameters and assumptions used in the bus scheduling model.

Estimation of creep coefficient in reinforced concrete beam (RC 빔 부재에서 크리프 계수 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Bum;Cho, Jae-Yeol;Park, Bong-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.245-248
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    • 2008
  • Concrete structures show time-dependent behavior due to creep and shrinkage of concrete and the uncertainties of creep and shrinkage are very huge. To reduce uncertainties of creep and shrinkage, it is substantially necessary to perform the long-term creep and shrinkage tests, but actual construction process doesn't allow it due to the limited time. Even though the tests are performed in laboratory, the values obtained from the tests could be different from the actual values in construction site because of the different environment between the laboratory and construction site and the model uncertainty itself. It is difficult to predict the long-term behaviors of concrete structures properly if the assumed creep coefficient obtained from Codes or the results of experiments is different from the real characteristics of concrete creep. In this study, for predicting the long-term behavior, the creep coefficients in reinforced concrete beams are estimated using creep sensitivity analysis from the measured deflections with time. And estimated creep coefficients using creep models of ACI Committee 209 and CEB-FIP MC90 are compared.

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