• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity and Uncertainty

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Yi, Su-Ho;Namkung, Baek-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1572-1581
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

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Numerical Analysis of Flow Distribution inside a Fuel Assembly with Split-type Mixing Vanes for the Development of Regulatory Guideline on the Applicability of CFD Software (전산유체역학 소프트웨어 적용성에 관한 규제 지침 개발을 위한 분할 형태 혼합날개가 장착된 연료집합체 내부유동 분포 수치해석)

  • Lee, Gong Hee;Cheong, Ae Ju
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.10
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    • pp.538-550
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    • 2017
  • In a PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor), the appropriate heat removal from the surface of fuel rod bundle is important for ensuring thermal margins and safety. Although many CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) software have been used to predict complex flows inside fuel assemblies with mixing vanes, there is no domestic regulatory guideline for the comprehensive evaluation of CFD software. Therefore, from the nuclear regulatory perspective, it is necessary to perform the systematic assessment and prepare the domestic regulatory guideline for checking whether valid CFD software is used for nuclear safety problems. In this study, to provide systematic evaluation and guidance on the applicability of CFD software to the domestic nuclear safety area, the results of the sensitivity analysis for the effect of the discretization scheme accuracy for the convection terms and turbulence models, which are main factors that contribute to the uncertainty in the calculation of the nuclear safety problems, on the prediction performance for the turbulent flow distribution inside the fuel assembly with split-type mixing vanes were explained.

Probabilistic Safety Assessment for High Level Nuclear Waste Repository System

  • Kim, Taw-Woon;Woo, Kab-Koo;Lee, Kun-Jai
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.53-72
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    • 1991
  • An integrated model is developed in this paper for the performance assessment of high level radioactive waste repository. This integrated model consists of two simple mathematical models. One is a multiple-barrier failure model of the repository system based on constant failure rates which provides source terms to biosphere. The other is a biosphere model which has multiple pathways for radionuclides to reach to human. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the risk assessment of high level radioactive waste repository, Latin hypercube sampling and rank correlation techniques are applied to this model. The former is cost-effective for large computer programs because it gives smaller error in estimating output distribution even with smaller number of runs compared to crude Monte Carlo technique. The latter is good for generating dependence structure among samples of input parameters. It is also used to find out the most sensitive, or important, parameter groups among given input parameters. The methodology of the mathematical modelling with statistical analysis will provide useful insights to the decision-making of radioactive waste repository selection and future researches related to uncertain and sensitive input parameters.

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Experiences in Spiritual Nursing Care by Student Nurses before Starting Nursing Practice in Hospital: Part I (간호대학생의 임상실습 전 영적 간호경험 I : 사례연구를 중심으로)

  • Koh Myung-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.462-472
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to describe the spiritual care experiences of student nurses after they have received 2 credits in a spiritual nursing care course at a university in Seoul, Korea. The major finding are as follow: 1 The problems that students reported for their patients were. loss of self- confidence, anxiety about outward appearance, anxiety about his(her) health and illness, maladaptability, guilt, problems with dating, uncertainty about his (her) future. 2. The methods which students used to help solve the patients' problems were: prayer with patients, use of Scripture, conversation, advice, frequent meetings listening, frequent phone call, writing letters, exploring problem solving methods together, and introduction of similar patients. 3. After the students had experienced spiritual nursing care they felt satis-faction, lack of knowledge of spiritual care, understood that spiritual nursing care courses at the university are important for education and experience, and understood the need for experience to increase sensitivity to the spiritual needs of their patients. Conclusion : Maintaining spiritual wellness is a important as maintaining physical fitness and essential for optimal well being. Therefore educating student nurses in developing and maintaining spiritual wellness is essential in order for them to help their patients achieve holism.

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A Conservative Safety Study on Low-Level Radioactive Waste Repository Using Radionuclide Release Source Term Model (선원항 모델을 사용한 저준위 방사성폐기물 처분장의 보수적인 안전성고찰)

  • Kim, Chang-Lak;Lee, Myung-Chan;Cho, Chan-Hee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 1993
  • A simplified safety assessment is carried out on rock-cavern type disposal of LLW using the analytical repository source term (REPS) model. For reliable prediction of the leach rates for various radionuclides, degradation of concrete structures, corrosion rate of waste container, degree of corrosion on the container surface, and the characteristics of radionuclides are considered in the REPS model. The results of preliminary assessment show that Cs-137, Ni-63, and Sr-90 are dominant. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, Latin hypercube sampling technique and rank correlation technique are applied. The results of the potential public health impacts show that radiological dose to intruder in the worst case scenario will be negligible and that more attention should be given to near-field performance.

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Nexus Between Inventory Volatility and Capital Investment: Evidence from Selected Asian Economies

  • SUBHANI, Bilal Haider;ASHFAQ, Khurram;KHAN, Muhammad Asif;MEYER, Natanya;FAROOQ, Umar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2022
  • The uncertainty regarding inventory may impart dynamic impacts on corporate-level financial decisions. Among others, a decision about capital investment is a crucial decision that requires overall financial stability. Following these theoretical notions, the current study aims to identify possible consequences of inventory volatility relating to corporate capital investment decisions. We employed ten years of data (2010-2019) of non-financial sector firms to achieve the objective. The Driscoll-Kraay model was used to quantify the regression. The statistical results imply that inventory volatility negatively influences capital investment decisions due to information asymmetry about the current financial position. Additionally, more volatility brings discrepancies in managers' investing decisions to fulfill the possible demand options of capital investment that require processing the inventory. However, based upon the statistical findings, it is suggested to corporate managers that they should consider the financial sensitivity of enterprises regarding inventory volatility. Thus, the current study introduces new thoughts regarding inventory volatility and its empirical role in determining capital investment.

LAS-Derived Determination of Surface-Layer Sensible Heat Flux over a Heterogeneous Urban Area (섬광계를 이용한 비균질 도시 지표에서의 현열속 산정)

  • Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2015
  • A large aperture scintillometer (LAS) was deployed with an optical path length of 2.1 km to estimate turbulent sensible heat flux (${\mathcal{Q}}_H$) over a highly heterogeneous urban area. Scintillation measurements were conducted during cold season in November and December 2013, and the daytime data of 14 days were used in the analysis after quality control processes. The LAS-derived ${\mathcal{Q}}_H$ show reasonable temporal variation ranging $20{\sim}160W\;m^{-2}$ in unstable atmospheric conditions, and well compare with the measured net radiation. The LAS footprint analysis suggests that ${\mathcal{Q}}_H$ can be relatively high when the newly built-up urban area has high source contribution of the turbulent flux in the study area ('northwesterly winds'). Sensitivity tests show that the LAS-derived ${\mathcal{Q}}_H$ are highly sensitive to non-dimensional similarity function for temperature structure function parameter, but relatively less sensitive to surface aerodynamic parameters and meteorological variables (temperature and wind speed). A lower Bowen ratio also has a significant influence on the flux estimation. Overall uncertainty of the estimated daytime ${\mathcal{Q}}_H$ is expected within about 20% at an upper limit for the analysis data. It is also found that stable atmospheric conditions can be poorly determined when the scintillometry technique is applied over the highly heterogeneous urban area.

Heart Murmur Detection Algorithm based on Spectral Flatness (주파수 평탄도에 기반한 심잡음 검출 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Yunjung;Lee, Gihyoun;Na, Sung Dae;Seong, Ki Woong;Cho, Jin Ho;Kim, Myoung Nam
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.557-566
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    • 2016
  • Heart sounds generated by the beating heart and blood flow reflect the turbulence created when the heart valves snap shut. Cardiac diagnosis is typically started by an auscultation using a stethoscope, from which a medical doctor, depending on his hearing capabilities and training, listens and interprets the acoustic signal. This method of diagnostic is uncertain, mostly due to the fact that human ear loses the acoustic frequency sensitivity through the years. Even though an auscultation has some weaknesses like uncertainty, it is considered as a primary tool due to its simplicity. In this paper, heart murmur detection algorithm is proposed using time and frequency characteristics of heart sound. The propose heart murmur detection method adapted conventional primary heart sound detection method in time domain and modified spectral flatness method in frequency domain for detecting heart murmurs. From experimental results, it is confirmed that the proposed algorithm detect the heart murmurs efficiently.

Development of a Computer Code, CONPAS, for an Integrated Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn, Kwang-Il;Kim, See-Darl;Song, Yong-Mann;Jin, Young-Ho;Park, Chung K.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.58-74
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    • 1998
  • A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS (CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical, and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree (CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the detailed supporting event tree (DSET) for its detailed quantification. For the integrated analysis of Level 2 PSA, the code utilizes five distinct, but closely related modules. Its computational feasibility to real PSAs has been assessed through an application to the UCN 3&4 full scope Level 2 PSA. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: (1) systematic uncertainty analysis / importance analysis / sensitivity analysis, (2) table / graphical display & print, (3) employment of the recent Level 2 PSA technologies, and (4) highly effective user interface. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the key features of CONPAS code and results of its feasibility study.

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Focal Depth Factors in the PSH Analysis

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.83-86
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    • 1998
  • The results from the Individual Plant Examination of External Event of Yonggwyang nuclear power plants, unit 3 & 4, in Korea have shown that the high degree of diversities of the experts' opinions on seismicity and attenuation models is su, pp.sed to be generic cause of uncertainty of APEs(annual exceedance probability) in the PAHA(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). This study investigated the sensitivity of the focal depth, which is one of the most uncertain seismicity parameters in Korea, Significant differences in resultant values of annual exceedance probabilities and much more symmetrical shape of the resultant PDFs(probability density functions), in case of consideration of focal depth, are found. These two results suggest that, even for the same seismic input data set including the seismicity models and ground motion attenuation models, to consider focal depth additionally for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis evaluation makes significant influence on the distributions of uncertainties and probabilities of exceedance per year for the whole ranges of seismic hazard levels. These facts suggest that it is necessary to derive focal depth parameter more effectively from the historical and instrumental documents on earthquake phenomena in Koran Peninsula for the future study of PSHA.

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