• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity/uncertainty estimation

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Uncertainty in Potentiodynamic Polarization Resistance Measurement (동전위 분극저항 측정에서의 불확도)

  • Kim, Jong Jip
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.193-196
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    • 2009
  • For the estimation of uncertainty in potentiodynamic polarization resistance measurement, the type A uncertainty was measured using type 316 stainless steel in an acidified NaCl solution. Sensitivity coefficients were determined for measurand such as scan rate of potential, temperature of solution, concentration of NaCl, concentration of HCl, surface roughness of specimen and flow rate of purging gas. Sensitivity coefficients were large for the measurand such as the scan rate of potential, temperature of solution and roughness of specimen. However, the sensitivity coefficients were not the major factors influencing the combined standard uncertainty of polarization resistance due to the low values of uncertainty in measurements of the measurands. A major influencing factor was the concentration of NaCl. The value of type A uncertainty was 1.1 times the value of type B uncertainty, and the combined standard uncertainty was 10.5 % of the average value of polarization resistance.

Verification of Reduced Order Modeling based Uncertainty/Sensitivity Estimator (ROMUSE)

  • Khuwaileh, Bassam;Williams, Brian;Turinsky, Paul;Hartanto, Donny
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.968-976
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents a number of verification case studies for a recently developed sensitivity/uncertainty code package. The code package, ROMUSE (Reduced Order Modeling based Uncertainty/Sensitivity Estimator) is an effort to provide an analysis tool to be used in conjunction with reactor core simulators, in particular the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) core simulator. ROMUSE has been written in C++ and is currently capable of performing various types of parameter perturbations and associated sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, surrogate model construction and subspace analysis. The current version 2.0 has the capability to interface with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) code, which gives ROMUSE access to the various algorithms implemented within DAKOTA, most importantly model calibration. The verification study is performed via two basic problems and two reactor physics models. The first problem is used to verify the ROMUSE single physics gradient-based range finding algorithm capability using an abstract quadratic model. The second problem is the Brusselator problem, which is a coupled problem representative of multi-physics problems. This problem is used to test the capability of constructing surrogates via ROMUSE-DAKOTA. Finally, light water reactor pin cell and sodium-cooled fast reactor fuel assembly problems are simulated via SCALE 6.1 to test ROMUSE capability for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis purposes.

Design, Fabrication and Micromachining Error Evaluation for a Surface-Micromachined Polysilicon Capacitice Accelerometer (표면미세가공기술을 이용한 수평감지방식의 정전용량형 다결정 실리콘 가속도계의 설계, 제작 및 가공 오차 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Pal;Han, Gi-Ho;Jo, Yeong-Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.529-536
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    • 2001
  • We investigate a surface-micromachined capacitive accelerometer with the grid-type electrodes surrounded by a perforated proof-mass frame. An electromechanical analysis of the microaccelerometer has been performed to obtain analytical formulae for natural frequency and output sensitivity response estimation. A set of prototype devices has been designed and fabricated based on a 4-mask surface-micromachining process. The resonant frequency of 5.8$\pm$0.17kHz and the detection sensitivity of 0.28$\pm$0.03mV/g have been measured from the fabricated devices. The parasitic capacitance of the detection circuit with a charge amplifier has been measured as 3.34$\pm$1.16pF. From the uncertainty analysis, we find that the major uncertainty in the natural frequency of the accelerometer comes from the micromachining error in the beam width patterning process. The major source of the sensitivity uncertainty includes uncertainty of the parasitic capacitance, the inter-electrode gap and the resonant frequency, contributing to the overall sensitivity uncertainty in the portions of 75%, 14% and 11%, respectively.

Estimation of Measurement Uncertainty in Evaluation of Tensile Properties (인장 물성 측정 불확도 평가)

  • Huh, Y.H.;Lee, H.M.;Kim, D.J.;Park, J.S.
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2010
  • Estimation of tensile properties measurement uncertainty of material was carried out. Sources of uncertainty affecting the measurement of tensile properties were classified and analyzed. The models for uncertainty evaluation of measurands to be determined from tensile test, such as elastic modulus, yield strength and tensile strength, were suggested and derived from the mathematical relations, corresponding to the respective measurands, and the measuring quantities by calculating each sensitivity coefficient of the quantities. Based on these models, the uncertainty of the tensile properties was evaluated from the experimental data of SUS316LN determined according to ISO 6892.

Analysis of Uncertainties in Estimation of Critical Speeds from Tire Yaw Marks (타이어 요마크로부터 임계속도 추정의 불확실성 해석)

  • Han, Inhwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.361-370
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    • 2015
  • There will inevitably be errors and uncertainties in tire yaw mark related critical speed formula, which is derived merely from the relationship between the centrifugal force and the friction force acting on the point-mass vehicle. Constructing and measuring yaw marks through appropriate simulation works have made it possible to perform uncertainty analysis in calculation of critical speeds under variation of variety of conditions and parameters while existing yaw mark experimental tests have not performed properly. This paper does not present only the critical speed analysis results for parametric sensitivity and uncertainty of chord and middle ordinate, coefficient of friction and road grade, but also modeling uncertainty such as variation of braking level during turning and vehicle size. The yaw mark analysis methods and results may be now applied in practice of traffic accident investigation.

Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

MCCARD: MONTE CARLO CODE FOR ADVANCED REACTOR DESIGN AND ANALYSIS

  • Shim, Hyung-Jin;Han, Beom-Seok;Jung, Jong-Sung;Park, Ho-Jin;Kim, Chang-Hyo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 2012
  • McCARD is a Monte Carlo (MC) neutron-photon transport simulation code. It has been developed exclusively for the neutronics design of nuclear reactors and fuel systems. It is capable of performing the whole-core neutronics calculations, the reactor fuel burnup analysis, the few group diffusion theory constant generation, sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis, and uncertainty propagation analysis. It has some special features such as the anterior convergence diagnostics, real variance estimation, neutronics analysis with temperature feedback, $B_1$ theory-augmented few group constants generation, kinetics parameter generation and MC S/U analysis based on the use of adjoint flux. This paper describes the theoretical basis of these features and validation calculations for both neutronics benchmark problems and commercial PWR reactors in operation.

Use of Dynamic Reliability Method in Assessing Accident Management Strategy

  • Jae, Moosung
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2001
  • This Paper proposes a new methodology for assessing the reliability of an accident management, which Is based on the reliability physics and the scheme to generate dynamic event tree. The methodology consists of 3 main steps: screening; uncertainty propagation; and probability estimation. Sensitivity analysis is used for screening the variables of significance. Latin Hypercube sampling technique and MAAP code are used for uncertainty propagation, and the dynamic event tree generation method is used for the estimation of non-success probability of implementing an accident management strategy. This approach is applied in assessing the non-success probability of implementing a cavity flooding strategy, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems during the sequence of station blackout at the reference plant.

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Estimation and Uncertainty Evaluation on Mass Flow Rate of Air Intake by Using Air Data (비행정보를 이용한 흡입구의 공기유량 추정 및 불확도 평가)

  • Park, Iksoo;Park, Jungwoo;Ki, Taeseok;Choi, Jin;Lee, Juyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2018
  • An estimation law of air mass flow rate for high speed engine control is presented. The variables of mass estimation equations are modified to measurable variables which can be obtained during flight, and the effectiveness of each variable to the estimation accuracy is evaluated. The equation is modified to a simplified form, and the uncertainty is evaluated. In addition, reference data for the selection of estimation methods is suggested by considering the sensitivity analysis of sensor error.

Design and Analysis of a Robust State Estimator Combining Perturbation Observer (섭동관측기를 연합한 강인 상태추정기 설계 및 해석)

  • Kwon SangJoo
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2005
  • This article describes a robust state estimation method which enables to produce reliable estimates in spite of heavy perturbation including plant uncertainty and external disturbances. The main idea is to combine the standard state estimator with the perturbation observer in the estimator frame. The perturbation observer reflects equivalent quantity of plant uncertainty and external disturbances during the estimation process so that the state estimator dynamics gets as close as possible to the real plant dynamics. The robust state estimator proposed in this paper is given in a recursive discrete-time form which is very useful fur implementation purpose. In terms of the error dynamics derived for the robust state estimator, we discuss the stability issue and noise sensitivity. The effectiveness and practicality of the robust state estimator are verified through numerical examples and experimental results.