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A Study on Differences of Contents and Tones of Arguments among Newspapers Using Text Mining Analysis (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 신문사에 따른 내용 및 논조 차이점 분석)

  • Kam, Miah;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.53-77
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    • 2012
  • This study analyses the difference of contents and tones of arguments among three Korean major newspapers, the Kyunghyang Shinmoon, the HanKyoreh, and the Dong-A Ilbo. It is commonly accepted that newspapers in Korea explicitly deliver their own tone of arguments when they talk about some sensitive issues and topics. It could be controversial if readers of newspapers read the news without being aware of the type of tones of arguments because the contents and the tones of arguments can affect readers easily. Thus it is very desirable to have a new tool that can inform the readers of what tone of argument a newspaper has. This study presents the results of clustering and classification techniques as part of text mining analysis. We focus on six main subjects such as Culture, Politics, International, Editorial-opinion, Eco-business and National issues in newspapers, and attempt to identify differences and similarities among the newspapers. The basic unit of text mining analysis is a paragraph of news articles. This study uses a keyword-network analysis tool and visualizes relationships among keywords to make it easier to see the differences. Newspaper articles were gathered from KINDS, the Korean integrated news database system. KINDS preserves news articles of the Kyunghyang Shinmun, the HanKyoreh and the Dong-A Ilbo and these are open to the public. This study used these three Korean major newspapers from KINDS. About 3,030 articles from 2008 to 2012 were used. International, national issues and politics sections were gathered with some specific issues. The International section was collected with the keyword of 'Nuclear weapon of North Korea.' The National issues section was collected with the keyword of '4-major-river.' The Politics section was collected with the keyword of 'Tonghap-Jinbo Dang.' All of the articles from April 2012 to May 2012 of Eco-business, Culture and Editorial-opinion sections were also collected. All of the collected data were handled and edited into paragraphs. We got rid of stop-words using the Lucene Korean Module. We calculated keyword co-occurrence counts from the paired co-occurrence list of keywords in a paragraph. We made a co-occurrence matrix from the list. Once the co-occurrence matrix was built, we used the Cosine coefficient matrix as input for PFNet(Pathfinder Network). In order to analyze these three newspapers and find out the significant keywords in each paper, we analyzed the list of 10 highest frequency keywords and keyword-networks of 20 highest ranking frequency keywords to closely examine the relationships and show the detailed network map among keywords. We used NodeXL software to visualize the PFNet. After drawing all the networks, we compared the results with the classification results. Classification was firstly handled to identify how the tone of argument of a newspaper is different from others. Then, to analyze tones of arguments, all the paragraphs were divided into two types of tones, Positive tone and Negative tone. To identify and classify all of the tones of paragraphs and articles we had collected, supervised learning technique was used. The Na$\ddot{i}$ve Bayesian classifier algorithm provided in the MALLET package was used to classify all the paragraphs in articles. After classification, Precision, Recall and F-value were used to evaluate the results of classification. Based on the results of this study, three subjects such as Culture, Eco-business and Politics showed some differences in contents and tones of arguments among these three newspapers. In addition, for the National issues, tones of arguments on 4-major-rivers project were different from each other. It seems three newspapers have their own specific tone of argument in those sections. And keyword-networks showed different shapes with each other in the same period in the same section. It means that frequently appeared keywords in articles are different and their contents are comprised with different keywords. And the Positive-Negative classification showed the possibility of classifying newspapers' tones of arguments compared to others. These results indicate that the approach in this study is promising to be extended as a new tool to identify the different tones of arguments of newspapers.

Image Watermarking for Copyright Protection of Images on Shopping Mall (쇼핑몰 이미지 저작권보호를 위한 영상 워터마킹)

  • Bae, Kyoung-Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.147-157
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    • 2013
  • With the advent of the digital environment that can be accessed anytime, anywhere with the introduction of high-speed network, the free distribution and use of digital content were made possible. Ironically this environment is raising a variety of copyright infringement, and product images used in the online shopping mall are pirated frequently. There are many controversial issues whether shopping mall images are creative works or not. According to Supreme Court's decision in 2001, to ad pictures taken with ham products is simply a clone of the appearance of objects to deliver nothing but the decision was not only creative expression. But for the photographer's losses recognized in the advertising photo shoot takes the typical cost was estimated damages. According to Seoul District Court precedents in 2003, if there are the photographer's personality and creativity in the selection of the subject, the composition of the set, the direction and amount of light control, set the angle of the camera, shutter speed, shutter chance, other shooting methods for capturing, developing and printing process, the works should be protected by copyright law by the Court's sentence. In order to receive copyright protection of the shopping mall images by the law, it is simply not to convey the status of the product, the photographer's personality and creativity can be recognized that it requires effort. Accordingly, the cost of making the mall image increases, and the necessity for copyright protection becomes higher. The product images of the online shopping mall have a very unique configuration unlike the general pictures such as portraits and landscape photos and, therefore, the general image watermarking technique can not satisfy the requirements of the image watermarking. Because background of product images commonly used in shopping malls is white or black, or gray scale (gradient) color, it is difficult to utilize the space to embed a watermark and the area is very sensitive even a slight change. In this paper, the characteristics of images used in shopping malls are analyzed and a watermarking technology which is suitable to the shopping mall images is proposed. The proposed image watermarking technology divide a product image into smaller blocks, and the corresponding blocks are transformed by DCT (Discrete Cosine Transform), and then the watermark information was inserted into images using quantization of DCT coefficients. Because uniform treatment of the DCT coefficients for quantization cause visual blocking artifacts, the proposed algorithm used weighted mask which quantizes finely the coefficients located block boundaries and coarsely the coefficients located center area of the block. This mask improves subjective visual quality as well as the objective quality of the images. In addition, in order to improve the safety of the algorithm, the blocks which is embedded the watermark are randomly selected and the turbo code is used to reduce the BER when extracting the watermark. The PSNR(Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) of the shopping mall image watermarked by the proposed algorithm is 40.7~48.5[dB] and BER(Bit Error Rate) after JPEG with QF = 70 is 0. This means the watermarked image is high quality and the algorithm is robust to JPEG compression that is used generally at the online shopping malls. Also, for 40% change in size and 40 degrees of rotation, the BER is 0. In general, the shopping malls are used compressed images with QF which is higher than 90. Because the pirated image is used to replicate from original image, the proposed algorithm can identify the copyright infringement in the most cases. As shown the experimental results, the proposed algorithm is suitable to the shopping mall images with simple background. However, the future study should be carried out to enhance the robustness of the proposed algorithm because the robustness loss is occurred after mask process.

Comparison of Early Germinating Vigor, Germination Speed and Germination Rate of Varieties in Poa pratensis L., Lolium perenne L. and Festuca arundinacea Schreb. Grown Under Different Growing Conditions (생육환경에 따른 Poa pratensis L., Lolium perenne L. 및 Festuca arundinacea Schreb.의 초종 및 품종별 발아세, 발아속도 및 발아율 비교)

  • 김경남;남상용
    • Asian Journal of Turfgrass Science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2003
  • Research was Initiated to investigate germination characteristics of cool-season grasses (CSG). Several turfgrasses were tested in different experiments. Experiments I and III were conducted under a room temperature condition of 16$^{\circ}C$ to 23 $^{\circ}C$ and under a constant light condition at 25 $^{\circ}C$, respectively. An alternative environment condition that is a requirement for a CSG germination test by International Seed Testing Association (ISTA) was applied in the Experiment II, consisting of 8-hr light at 25 $^{\circ}C$ and 16-hr dark at 15 $^{\circ}C$. In each experiment, data such as early germinating vigor, germination speed and germination rate were evaluated. Six turfgrass entries were comprised of two varieties each from Kentucky bluegrass (KB, Poa pratensis L.), perennial ryegrass (PR, Lolium perenne L.), and tall fescue (TF, Festuca arundinacea Schreb.), respectively. Significant differences were observed in early germinating vigor, germination speed and germination rate. Early germinating vigor as measured by days to 70% seed germination was variable according to environment conditions, turfgrasses and varieties. It was less than 6 days in PR and 6 to 9 days in TF. However, KB resulted in 11 to 13 days under an alternative condition and 11 to 28 days under a room temperature condition. The germination speed was fastest in PR of 7 to 10 days and slowest in KB of 14 to 21 days. However, intermediate speed of 10 to 14 days was associated with TF. There were considerable variations in germination rate among turfgrasses according to different conditions. Generally, PR and TF germinated well, regardless of environment conditions. However, a great difference was observed among KB varieties, when compared with others. Under a room temperature condition, total germination rate was 71.0% in Midnight and 77.7% in Award. And it increased under an alternative condition, which was 81.7% and 91.7% in Award and Midnight, respectively. However, the poorest rate was found under a constant temperature condition, resulting in 18.0% in Award and 15.3% in Midnight. These results suggest that an intensive germination test required by ISTA be needed prior to the decision of seeding rate, including early germinating vigor and germination speed as well as total germination rate. KB is very sensitive to environment conditions and thus its variety selection should be based on a careful expertise.

Human Parathyroid Hormone-Related Peptide Measurement in the Lung Cancer Patients (폐암환자에서 인체 부갑상선 호르몬 관련 단백에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Joon;Kim, Se-Kyu;Lim, Sung-Kil;Lee, Hong-Lyeol;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Won-Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.855-861
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    • 1995
  • Background: Parathyroid hormone-related protein(PTHrp) was first identified as the cause of hypercalcemia in malignancy. Hypercalcemia can be found in malignancy, especially in the epidermoid carcinoma of the lung, even without extensive metastases to the bones. The application of sensitive assays for PTHrp may help in the early diagnosis of lung cancer, in the monitoring of treatment and in the detection of recurrence. Method: Serum PTHrp was measured by radioimmunoassay detecting the N-terminal 1~34 peptide of human PTHrp(PTHrp 1-34) in 63 histologically confirmed lung cancer patients and 22 healthy controls. Result: Serum PTHrp(mean$\pm$S.E.) was $312{\pm}68.9pg/ml$ in 63 lung cancer patients and $158{\pm}38.2pg/ml$ in 22 controls(p>0.05). PTHrp was $356{\pm}103.9pg/ml$ in 34 epidermoid carcinoma patients, $281{\pm}148.7pg/ml$ in 15 adenocarcinoma patients and $316{\pm}140.8pg/ml$ in 9 small cell carcinoma patients. In epidermoid carcinoma patients, PTHrp was $570{\pm}472.3pg/ml$ in stage II(n=3; p<0.05 vs controls), $166{\pm}22.4pg/ml$ in stage IIIa(n=9), $282{\pm}113.3pg/ml$ in stage IIIb(n=12) and $668{\pm}367.9pg/ml$ in stage IV(n=9; p<0.05 vs controls). PTHrp was significantly increased in 8 epidermoid carcinoma patients with bone metastases($1526{\pm}811.2\;pg/ml$; p<0.0005 vs controls). Hypercalcemia was observed in an epidermoid carcinoma patient whose PTHrp value was 244 pg/ml. Conclusion: The serum PTHrp was increased in advanced epidermoid carcinoma patients even without hypercalcemia. The measurement of PTHrp may be not helpful in the early diagnosis of lung cancer. But the lung cancer should be suspected in the marked elevation of PTHrp. It may be of value in detecting patients of advanced diseases with bone metastases or patients who might develop the malignancy associated hypercalcemia.

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Pareto Ratio and Inequality Level of Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Knowledge Collaboration: Analysis of Behaviors on Wikipedia (지식 공유의 파레토 비율 및 불평등 정도와 가상 지식 협업: 위키피디아 행위 데이터 분석)

  • Park, Hyun-Jung;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2014
  • The Pareto principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, states that roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes for many events including natural phenomena. It has been recognized as a golden rule in business with a wide application of such discovery like 20 percent of customers resulting in 80 percent of total sales. On the other hand, the Long Tail theory, pointing out that "the trivial many" produces more value than "the vital few," has gained popularity in recent times with a tremendous reduction of distribution and inventory costs through the development of ICT(Information and Communication Technology). This study started with a view to illuminating how these two primary business paradigms-Pareto principle and Long Tail theory-relates to the success of virtual knowledge collaboration. The importance of virtual knowledge collaboration is soaring in this era of globalization and virtualization transcending geographical and temporal constraints. Many previous studies on knowledge sharing have focused on the factors to affect knowledge sharing, seeking to boost individual knowledge sharing and resolve the social dilemma caused from the fact that rational individuals are likely to rather consume than contribute knowledge. Knowledge collaboration can be defined as the creation of knowledge by not only sharing knowledge, but also by transforming and integrating such knowledge. In this perspective of knowledge collaboration, the relative distribution of knowledge sharing among participants can count as much as the absolute amounts of individual knowledge sharing. In particular, whether the more contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants in knowledge sharing will enhance the efficiency of overall knowledge collaboration is an issue of interest. This study deals with the effect of this sort of knowledge sharing distribution on the efficiency of knowledge collaboration and is extended to reflect the work characteristics. All analyses were conducted based on actual data instead of self-reported questionnaire surveys. More specifically, we analyzed the collaborative behaviors of editors of 2,978 English Wikipedia featured articles, which are the best quality grade of articles in English Wikipedia. We adopted Pareto ratio, the ratio of the number of knowledge contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants to the total number of knowledge contribution made by the total participants of an article group, to examine the effect of Pareto principle. In addition, Gini coefficient, which represents the inequality of income among a group of people, was applied to reveal the effect of inequality of knowledge contribution. Hypotheses were set up based on the assumption that the higher ratio of knowledge contribution by more highly motivated participants will lead to the higher collaboration efficiency, but if the ratio gets too high, the collaboration efficiency will be exacerbated because overall informational diversity is threatened and knowledge contribution of less motivated participants is intimidated. Cox regression models were formulated for each of the focal variables-Pareto ratio and Gini coefficient-with seven control variables such as the number of editors involved in an article, the average time length between successive edits of an article, the number of sections a featured article has, etc. The dependent variable of the Cox models is the time spent from article initiation to promotion to the featured article level, indicating the efficiency of knowledge collaboration. To examine whether the effects of the focal variables vary depending on the characteristics of a group task, we classified 2,978 featured articles into two categories: Academic and Non-academic. Academic articles refer to at least one paper published at an SCI, SSCI, A&HCI, or SCIE journal. We assumed that academic articles are more complex, entail more information processing and problem solving, and thus require more skill variety and expertise. The analysis results indicate the followings; First, Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing relates in a curvilinear fashion to the collaboration efficiency in an online community, promoting it to an optimal point and undermining it thereafter. Second, the curvilinear effect of Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing on the collaboration efficiency is more sensitive with a more academic task in an online community.

Intelligent VOC Analyzing System Using Opinion Mining (오피니언 마이닝을 이용한 지능형 VOC 분석시스템)

  • Kim, Yoosin;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.113-125
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    • 2013
  • Every company wants to know customer's requirement and makes an effort to meet them. Cause that, communication between customer and company became core competition of business and that important is increasing continuously. There are several strategies to find customer's needs, but VOC (Voice of customer) is one of most powerful communication tools and VOC gathering by several channels as telephone, post, e-mail, website and so on is so meaningful. So, almost company is gathering VOC and operating VOC system. VOC is important not only to business organization but also public organization such as government, education institute, and medical center that should drive up public service quality and customer satisfaction. Accordingly, they make a VOC gathering and analyzing System and then use for making a new product and service, and upgrade. In recent years, innovations in internet and ICT have made diverse channels such as SNS, mobile, website and call-center to collect VOC data. Although a lot of VOC data is collected through diverse channel, the proper utilization is still difficult. It is because the VOC data is made of very emotional contents by voice or text of informal style and the volume of the VOC data are so big. These unstructured big data make a difficult to store and analyze for use by human. So that, the organization need to automatic collecting, storing, classifying and analyzing system for unstructured big VOC data. This study propose an intelligent VOC analyzing system based on opinion mining to classify the unstructured VOC data automatically and determine the polarity as well as the type of VOC. And then, the basis of the VOC opinion analyzing system, called domain-oriented sentiment dictionary is created and corresponding stages are presented in detail. The experiment is conducted with 4,300 VOC data collected from a medical website to measure the effectiveness of the proposed system and utilized them to develop the sensitive data dictionary by determining the special sentiment vocabulary and their polarity value in a medical domain. Through the experiment, it comes out that positive terms such as "칭찬, 친절함, 감사, 무사히, 잘해, 감동, 미소" have high positive opinion value, and negative terms such as "퉁명, 뭡니까, 말하더군요, 무시하는" have strong negative opinion. These terms are in general use and the experiment result seems to be a high probability of opinion polarity. Furthermore, the accuracy of proposed VOC classification model has been compared and the highest classification accuracy of 77.8% is conformed at threshold with -0.50 of opinion classification of VOC. Through the proposed intelligent VOC analyzing system, the real time opinion classification and response priority of VOC can be predicted. Ultimately the positive effectiveness is expected to catch the customer complains at early stage and deal with it quickly with the lower number of staff to operate the VOC system. It can be made available human resource and time of customer service part. Above all, this study is new try to automatic analyzing the unstructured VOC data using opinion mining, and shows that the system could be used as variable to classify the positive or negative polarity of VOC opinion. It is expected to suggest practical framework of the VOC analysis to diverse use and the model can be used as real VOC analyzing system if it is implemented as system. Despite experiment results and expectation, this study has several limits. First of all, the sample data is only collected from a hospital web-site. It means that the sentimental dictionary made by sample data can be lean too much towards on that hospital and web-site. Therefore, next research has to take several channels such as call-center and SNS, and other domain like government, financial company, and education institute.

Analysis of the Time-dependent Relation between TV Ratings and the Content of Microblogs (TV 시청률과 마이크로블로그 내용어와의 시간대별 관계 분석)

  • Choeh, Joon Yeon;Baek, Haedeuk;Choi, Jinho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.163-176
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    • 2014
  • Social media is becoming the platform for users to communicate their activities, status, emotions, and experiences to other people. In recent years, microblogs, such as Twitter, have gained in popularity because of its ease of use, speed, and reach. Compared to a conventional web blog, a microblog lowers users' efforts and investment for content generation by recommending shorter posts. There has been a lot research into capturing the social phenomena and analyzing the chatter of microblogs. However, measuring television ratings has been given little attention so far. Currently, the most common method to measure TV ratings uses an electronic metering device installed in a small number of sampled households. Microblogs allow users to post short messages, share daily updates, and conveniently keep in touch. In a similar way, microblog users are interacting with each other while watching television or movies, or visiting a new place. In order to measure TV ratings, some features are significant during certain hours of the day, or days of the week, whereas these same features are meaningless during other time periods. Thus, the importance of features can change during the day, and a model capturing the time sensitive relevance is required to estimate TV ratings. Therefore, modeling time-related characteristics of features should be a key when measuring the TV ratings through microblogs. We show that capturing time-dependency of features in measuring TV ratings is vitally necessary for improving their accuracy. To explore the relationship between the content of microblogs and TV ratings, we collected Twitter data using the Get Search component of the Twitter REST API from January 2013 to October 2013. There are about 300 thousand posts in our data set for the experiment. After excluding data such as adverting or promoted tweets, we selected 149 thousand tweets for analysis. The number of tweets reaches its maximum level on the broadcasting day and increases rapidly around the broadcasting time. This result is stems from the characteristics of the public channel, which broadcasts the program at the predetermined time. From our analysis, we find that count-based features such as the number of tweets or retweets have a low correlation with TV ratings. This result implies that a simple tweet rate does not reflect the satisfaction or response to the TV programs. Content-based features extracted from the content of tweets have a relatively high correlation with TV ratings. Further, some emoticons or newly coined words that are not tagged in the morpheme extraction process have a strong relationship with TV ratings. We find that there is a time-dependency in the correlation of features between the before and after broadcasting time. Since the TV program is broadcast at the predetermined time regularly, users post tweets expressing their expectation for the program or disappointment over not being able to watch the program. The highly correlated features before the broadcast are different from the features after broadcasting. This result explains that the relevance of words with TV programs can change according to the time of the tweets. Among the 336 words that fulfill the minimum requirements for candidate features, 145 words have the highest correlation before the broadcasting time, whereas 68 words reach the highest correlation after broadcasting. Interestingly, some words that express the impossibility of watching the program show a high relevance, despite containing a negative meaning. Understanding the time-dependency of features can be helpful in improving the accuracy of TV ratings measurement. This research contributes a basis to estimate the response to or satisfaction with the broadcasted programs using the time dependency of words in Twitter chatter. More research is needed to refine the methodology for predicting or measuring TV ratings.

Studies on a Factor Affecting Composts Maturity During Composting of SWine Manure (돈분 퇴비화 중 부숙도에 미치는 영향인자 구명)

  • Kim, T.I.;Song, J. I.;Yang, C.B.;Kim, M.K.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to investigate indices affecting composts maturity for swine manure compost produced in a commercial composting facility with air-forced from the bottom. The composting was made of swine manure mixed with puffing rice hull(6: 4) and turned by escalating agitator twice a day. Composting samples were collected periodically during a 45-d composting cycle at that system, showing that indices of Ammonium-N to Nitrate-N ratio were sensitive indicators of composting quality. Pile temperature maintained more than 62$^{\circ}C$ and water contents decreased about 20% for 25days of composting. A great variety and high numbers of aerobic thermophilic heterotropic microbes playing critical roles in stability of composts have been examined in the final composts, sbowing that they were detected $10^8$ to $10^{10}$ $CFUg^{-1}$ in mesophilic bacteria, $10^3$ - $10^4$ in fungi and $10^6$ - $10^8$ in actinomycetes, respectively. The results of this study for detennining a factor affecting compost stability evaluations based on composting steps were as follows; 1. Ammonium-N concentrations were highest at the beginning of composting, reaching approximately 421mg/kg. However Ammonium-N concentrations were lower during curing, reaching approximately l04mg/kg just after 45 day. The ratio between $NH_4-N$ and $NO_3-N$ was above II at the beginning of composting and less than 2 at the final step(45 day). 2. Seed germination Index was dependent upon the compost phytotoxicity and its nutrition. The phytotocity caused the GI to low during the period of active composting(till 25 days of composting time) depending on the value of the undiluted. After 25 days of composting time, the GI was dependent upon compost nutrition. The Gennination index of the final step was calculated at over 80 without regard to treatments. 3. E4: E6 ratio in humic acid of composts was correlatively decreased from 8.86 to 6.76 during the period of active composting. After 25 days of composting time, the E4: E6 was consistently decreased from 6.76 to 4.67($r^2$ of total composting period was 0.95). 4. Water soluble carbon had a tendency to increase from 0.54% to 0.78%during the period of active composting. After 25 days of composting time, it was consistently decreased from 0.78% to 0.42%. Water soluble nitrogen increased from 0.22% to 0.32% during the period of 15 days after initial composting while decreased from 0.32% to 0.21% after 15days of composting. In consequence, the correlation coefficient($r^2$) between water soluble carbon and water soluble nitrogen was 0.12 during the period of active composting mule was 0.50 after 25 days of composting time

Characteristics That Affect Japanese Consumer Preferences for Chrysanthemum (국화 수출 확대를 위한 일본 소비자의 상품 선호도 분석)

  • Lim, Jin Hee;Seo, Ji Yeon;Shim, Myung Syun
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.640-647
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to provide exportation strategy by surveying on preference of Japanese consumers on cut chrysanthemum exported. The survey was conducted two times by a local survey company in Japan, and the surveys were conducted largely on chrysanthemums for casual flowers and the altar. After departmentalizing Japanese consumers per groups the result were analyzed through conjoint and cluster methods, flower colors and shape were used relatively higher rate for selection criteria of flowers in every group in the case of casual flowers. Group 1 comprised of 60 year-old housewives who reside in a small city with high school diploma and annual income less than 300 million yen, and group 2 of 40 year-old housewives who are small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 300 million yen show higher rate of use in flower shape than colors. Another group 3 whose members are 50 year-old housewives, small city residents with high school diplomas and annual income of 600 million yen showed higher rate of use colors than the shape for selection criteria of flowers. The consumption characteristics according to the ages of the consumers showed a pronounced tendency. The 40-50 year-old housewives preferred single flowers packed with other flowers, and the 60 year-old housewives double flowers packed with only chrysanthemums. In flower color, the 50-60 year-old housewives preferred white and yellow flowers, and the 40 year-old housewives pink and yellow flowers. Therefore, there are needs for development strategy of new products considering the consumption characteristics of flower shape and color according to the ages of consumer. After analyzing the chrysanthemums for altar by departmentalization of Japanese consumers, every group showed relative higher rate of use for flower shape for selection criteria of flowers. According to the analysis on the consumption characteristics, group 1 which is comprised of 30-40 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and income less than 300 million yen, and the group 2 of 20 year-old housewives who reside in small city with college diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen. They are very sensitive to the price of the products while the group 3 of 50 year-old housewives who reside in small city with high school diplomas and annual income less than 300 million yen are insensitive to the price. The 30-50 year-old housewives preferred white and pink flowers, and the 20 year-old housewives yellow and pink flowers. In flower shape, the 50 year-old housewives preferred anemone shape, the 30-40 year-old housewives double shape, and the 20 year-old housewives pompon shapes. Therefore, the white, double flowers for the 30-40 year-old housewives and the yellow, pompon flowers for the 20 year-old housewives are needed to be created at the lowest cost, while the white, anemone flowers are needed to created at higher cost with high quality. In light of these results, it is considered that we should understand the types of purchasing products through consumption characteristics of Japanese consumers. Also we should plan, create market-oriented and consumer-oriented products, and should export them in order to expand more exportation.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.